Beat of Hawaii and Beyond: Travel Deals, Tips, Events, Culture

I disagree with most travel analysts on how to find the best airfare deals. Here’s my advice on shopping for the best bargain.

First, realize that the rules have changed.

Since the oil price crisis hit the airlines this Spring, the whole scenario on pricing and deals changed. Traditional pricing and timing models went out the airplane window together with good deals, frequent flier seats and meals.

Second, be careful of the advice you read.

For example, the travel search website, Farecast, acquired in April by Microsoft, purports to predict when the best time is to buy airline tickets. Farecast, giving old and no longer appropriate recommendations, recently advised among other things:

“The lowest price tends to hit between eight and two weeks before departure. Buying tickets farther in advance usually doesn’t save money.”

Beat of Hawaii’s Tips

Farecast is completely and utterly wrong. There is no longer a way to generalize and predict when the truly great deals will become available or what time period they will be for. Deal time in today’s market has eluded even their sophisticated algorithms.

Certainly you can surmise that you won’t be getting the best deals from June 15 to August 15, and over Thanksgiving and Christmas holidays. But beyond that, if you want to get great deals, the airfare war deals, you will have to monitor for them almost constantly. They come and go mostly within the span of a single day or less.

Recent case in point.

We reported amazing deals between the East and West coasts and Hawaii just four weeks ago. They lasted 12 hours or less, with the most desirable dates going within one to two hours. These deals, however, covered travel over a nine month period, from mid-August 2008 all the way until mid-April 2009, and were under $300 RT (all-inclusive). That completely contradicts the advice from Farecast.

What you need to do to find those great deals.

You’ll have to use a feed-reader or a start page that supports them (like myYAHOO or iGoogle). That way, you’ll get apprised of deals shortly after they are released. Otherwise, by the time you hear about them, the deals will be yesterday’s news and you will have missed them.

If you’re following Hawaii deals, we are too. Just subscribe to our RSS feed, and we’ll share the exceptional deals as fast as we find them. If you’re not sure about what RSS is or how to use it, you can read our explanation.

Please let us know your comments and if you have any other ideas on finding the truly great deals.

A strangely similar incident occurred this month, which landed directly on the heals of a February 13 event here in Hawaii.  In February, two Go! pilots fell asleep and overshot Hilo airport.

Times of India reported that on June 4, an Air India flight overshot its destination by 359 miles on a flight from Jaipur to Mumbai.  The pilots fell asleep shortly after takeoff, and were luckily awakened by air traffic control.  At the time, the plane with its 100 passengers, was still at cruising altitude, heading off-course towards Goa.

Air India is denying the event took place.  Go! initially declined comment about the event.  Later however, it fired both pilots.

Both Go and Air India pilots have complained about exhausting schedules and staff shortages. At Go!, last year alone, nearly one-half of its pilots quit.

Perhaps this is just an odd coincidence, but it certainly raises questions.

Yesterday, the Internet was abuzz with the price of oil reaching $140, with mentions that the airline industry could be on the verge of collapse by year’s end.

Remember 1973?

We’ve known precisely that this was coming for just a little while. Like 1973 to be exact. That was the year of the gas shortage and the infamous gas station lines. We clearly knew then that oil would become very expensive and supplies would start dwindling, soon after the turn of the century.

Here we sit, 35 years later, having done absolutely nothing to avert the situation. In fact all that we did was to build bigger cars, consume more oil and avoid renewable energy sources, almost at all cost.

That brings us to today.

Whether through some form of government regulation or through financial failures, there will be a necessary contraction in the airline industry. We will return to an industry likely more similar in appearance to how it looked 30-40 years ago. By that I mean fewer airlines, fewer choices and higher prices.  Probably nothing can change that, not even an Act of Congress. It’s only a matter of how the airlines contract that is yet to be determined.

The airlines are in Washington telling Congress that we must bring the price of fuel down. They are blaming speculation as the major cause of the recent doubling in oil cost. There are many factors associated with oil pricing, and speculation is likely only one of them. Supply has far outstripped demand, and being redundant, we knew about this 35 years ago.

Deregulation.

Many industry experts believe, as do the major airlines, that re-regulation will not work. Ultimately, regulation will likely cause further inefficiencies and drive airfare prices higher.

Any way you look at it, this is going to be an interesting time ahead.

I look forward to hearing your views.

Hawaii’s banana industry may be well-positioned for a serious comeback. They are certainly growing well in our backyard. This photo shows our latest crop growing amidst Blue Ginger.

Prices of Hawaii bananas have never been competitive with Central America in the past due to the high cost of land and labor. The scale is starting to tip in favor of Hawaii bananas for two important reasons:

1. Price of bananas from Central America is up 36% compared with this time last year.

With escalating fuel costs, banana prices of $1 a pound and more are or will soon be standard on the mainland. Fuel prices impact not only transporting the bananas, but the cost of fertilizer used to grow them as well.

Hawaii is the same distance to the West Coast as is Central America. There’s the potential of shipping bananas cost effectively to the mainland from Hawaii.

2. Most commercial bananas could soon face extinction due to BBTV (Banana Bunchy Top Virus).

Hawaii bananas are not immune from BBTV. However, research at University of Hawaii at Manoa, in concert with USDA, is yielding positive results. It appear that BBTV may be controllable in Hawaii bananas, and new varieties currently in development could be completely immune.

Virtually all commercially grown bananas (not including those from Hawaii) are of the Cavendish variety. While there are over 1,000 banana varieties, standardization on this one variety occurred in order to assure even ripening in shipping, among other things.

As last week’s banana article in the NY Times pointed out, when all bananas come from the same genetic pool (one variety), they are extremely vulnerable to disease. This wiped out commercial bananas in the first half of the 1900’s.

The Chinese Cavendish variety, while considered inferior in taste, was grown because it was immune to the infection. Now, however, a more virulent virus to which the Cavendish is not immune is spreading and is expected to affect Central America within the next 5-10 years.

Banana Production in Hawaii

Hawaii has a long way to go in banana production. Last year Hawaii raised only 20 million pounds compared with the 7.9 billion pounds the U.S. imported, primarily from Guatemala and Costa Rica.

Earlier this year, one of our state’s largest banana producers, Mauna Kea Banana Company was set to shut down operations after 30 years.

Since then we’ve learned that they have changed plans, and will be remaining open. The company will primarily grow Williams variety bananas, and will invest $1 million in hydro-electric power and a bio-diesel (cooking grease) to fuel plant.

The future looks bright for Hawaii bananas.

While Travelzoo announced yesterday that it reaches over 22 million unique visitors each month, the news there is far from rosy.

First, their advertised deals are not always the best buy. We reported on June 12 that we found better savings to Hawaii using Travelocity’s flexible date search.

Now the President of Travelzoo, C.J. Kettler, has resigned following only 7 months in the position. Shares of Travelzoo (TZOO) have plunged from $30 to $10 over the past year.

What are the issues facing this once popular travel deal newsletter?

1. The fundamental ways in which travel deals are marketed has changed.

Travelzoo’s Top 20 newsletter deals have been their stock in trade. From its inception, these offerings were unique and often exceptional. Through word of mouth as well as excellent marketing, a huge number of travelers subscribed to their newsletter.

The very nature of today’s travel deals, and how they are promoted, has escaped Travelzoo’s previously successful business model.

Travel providers (hotels, car rentals and airlines), are finding it more effective and less expensive to promote their own offerings, including last minute deals, through their branded sites rather than with consolidators.

The very best offers that used to find themselves on Travelzoo are now often only available for a number of hours, instead of days.

2. Consolidation and contraction in the travel industry has reduced Travelzoo’s advertisers.

The major travel sites like Priceline, Expedia and Orbitz are now well focused on fast-changing and last minute deals, and are further squeezing Travelzoo.

Travelzoo is trying some new things, including providing geographically targeted deals through their partners, AOL, FareCast and Wcities. Even here Travelzoo is not unique with this industry trend.

3. Questionable management.

It was recently reported that Travelzoo has signed an extraordinarily expensive 10-year lease for offices at 590 Madison Avenue. The rent alone is equivalent to 15% of their annual profits.

If you have any recent experience with Travelzoo, be sure to add your comments.

The Kauai Museum continues their Traditional Hawaiian Quilt exhibit through July 25. I toured the exhibit recently and was quite partial to the pink quilt in this picture. There’s a reason why: I’m the proud owner!

There are many historic quilts on display and each one has a unique history. The placard next to this quilt made by my Great-Grandmother tells its story.

Starting August 1, the museum begins its Non-Hawaiian Quilt exhibit through October 1. The second half of the exhibit features the modern expression of quilt making from the the people of Kauai.

If you happen to be on Kauai, and see my Great-Grandmother’s quilt, be sure to let me know.

Kauai Museum Details

Admission: $10 for adults; discounts available for seniors, students and children. First Saturday of the month free!

Hours: Monday-Friday from 9-4; Saturday 10-4.

Location: Corner of Rice and Eiwa Streets in Lihue.

Special Workshop: Hawaiian Quilt Design, Saturday, July 19, 1pm.

Photo Courtesy of Kauai Museum and Chris Faye, Curator