BEAT OF HAWAII AND BEYOND

I disagree with most travel analysts on how to find the best airfare deals. Here’s my advice on shopping for the best bargain.

First, realize that the rules have changed.

Since the oil price crisis hit the airlines this Spring, the whole scenario on pricing and deals changed. Traditional pricing and timing models went out the airplane window together with good deals, frequent flier seats and meals.

Second, be careful of the advice you read.

For example, the travel search website, Farecast, acquired in April by Microsoft, purports to predict when the best time is to buy airline tickets. Farecast, giving old and no longer appropriate recommendations, recently advised among other things:

“The lowest price tends to hit between eight and two weeks before departure. Buying tickets farther in advance usually doesn’t save money.”

Beat of Hawaii’s Tips

Farecast is completely and utterly wrong. There is no longer a way to generalize and predict when the truly great deals will become available or what time period they will be for. Deal time in today’s market has eluded even their sophisticated algorithms.

Certainly you can surmise that you won’t be getting the best deals from June 15 to August 15, and over Thanksgiving and Christmas holidays. But beyond that, if you want to get great deals, the airfare war deals, you will have to monitor for them almost constantly. They come and go mostly within the span of a single day or less.

Recent case in point.

We reported amazing deals between the East and West coasts and Hawaii just four weeks ago. They lasted 12 hours or less, with the most desirable dates going within one to two hours. These deals, however, covered travel over a nine month period, from mid-August 2008 all the way until mid-April 2009, and were under $300 RT (all-inclusive). That completely contradicts the advice from Farecast.

What you need to do to find those great deals.

You’ll have to use a feed-reader or a start page that supports them (like myYAHOO or iGoogle). That way, you’ll get apprised of deals shortly after they are released. Otherwise, by the time you hear about them, the deals will be yesterday’s news and you will have missed them.

If you’re following Hawaii deals, we are too. Just subscribe to our RSS feed, and we’ll share the exceptional deals as fast as we find them. If you’re not sure about what RSS is or how to use it, you can read our explanation.

Please let us know your comments and if you have any other ideas on finding the truly great deals.

A strangely similar incident occurred this month, which landed directly on the heals of a February 13 event here in Hawaii.  In February, two Go! pilots fell asleep and overshot Hilo airport.

Times of India reported that on June 4, an Air India flight overshot its destination by 359 miles on a flight from Jaipur to Mumbai.  The pilots fell asleep shortly after takeoff, and were luckily awakened by air traffic control.  At the time, the plane with its 100 passengers, was still at cruising altitude, heading off-course towards Goa.

Air India is denying the event took place.  Go! initially declined comment about the event.  Later however, it fired both pilots.

Both Go and Air India pilots have complained about exhausting schedules and staff shortages. At Go!, last year alone, nearly one-half of its pilots quit.

Perhaps this is just an odd coincidence, but it certainly raises questions.

Yesterday, the Internet was abuzz with the price of oil reaching $140, with mentions that the airline industry could be on the verge of collapse by year’s end.

Remember 1973?

We’ve known precisely that this was coming for just a little while. Like 1973 to be exact. That was the year of the gas shortage and the infamous gas station lines. We clearly knew then that oil would become very expensive and supplies would start dwindling, soon after the turn of the century.

Here we sit, 35 years later, having done absolutely nothing to avert the situation. In fact all that we did was to build bigger cars, consume more oil and avoid renewable energy sources, almost at all cost.

That brings us to today.

Whether through some form of government regulation or through financial failures, there will be a necessary contraction in the airline industry. We will return to an industry likely more similar in appearance to how it looked 30-40 years ago. By that I mean fewer airlines, fewer choices and higher prices.  Probably nothing can change that, not even an Act of Congress. It’s only a matter of how the airlines contract that is yet to be determined.

The airlines are in Washington telling Congress that we must bring the price of fuel down. They are blaming speculation as the major cause of the recent doubling in oil cost. There are many factors associated with oil pricing, and speculation is likely only one of them. Supply has far outstripped demand, and being redundant, we knew about this 35 years ago.

Deregulation.

Many industry experts believe, as do the major airlines, that re-regulation will not work. Ultimately, regulation will likely cause further inefficiencies and drive airfare prices higher.

Any way you look at it, this is going to be an interesting time ahead.

I look forward to hearing your views.

Hawaii’s banana industry may be well-positioned for a serious comeback. They are certainly growing well in our backyard. This photo shows our latest crop growing amidst Blue Ginger.

Prices of Hawaii bananas have never been competitive with Central America in the past due to the high cost of land and labor. The scale is starting to tip in favor of Hawaii bananas for two important reasons:

1. Price of bananas from Central America is up 36% compared with this time last year.

With escalating fuel costs, banana prices of $1 a pound and more are or will soon be standard on the mainland. Fuel prices impact not only transporting the bananas, but the cost of fertilizer used to grow them as well.

Hawaii is the same distance to the West Coast as is Central America. There’s the potential of shipping bananas cost effectively to the mainland from Hawaii.

2. Most commercial bananas could soon face extinction due to BBTV (Banana Bunchy Top Virus).

Hawaii bananas are not immune from BBTV. However, research at University of Hawaii at Manoa, in concert with USDA, is yielding positive results. It appear that BBTV may be controllable in Hawaii bananas, and new varieties currently in development could be completely immune.

Virtually all commercially grown bananas (not including those from Hawaii) are of the Cavendish variety. While there are over 1,000 banana varieties, standardization on this one variety occurred in order to assure even ripening in shipping, among other things.

As last week’s banana article in the NY Times pointed out, when all bananas come from the same genetic pool (one variety), they are extremely vulnerable to disease. This wiped out commercial bananas in the first half of the 1900’s.

The Chinese Cavendish variety, while considered inferior in taste, was grown because it was immune to the infection. Now, however, a more virulent virus to which the Cavendish is not immune is spreading and is expected to affect Central America within the next 5-10 years.

Banana Production in Hawaii

Hawaii has a long way to go in banana production. Last year Hawaii raised only 20 million pounds compared with the 7.9 billion pounds the U.S. imported, primarily from Guatemala and Costa Rica.

Earlier this year, one of our state’s largest banana producers, Mauna Kea Banana Company was set to shut down operations after 30 years.

Since then we’ve learned that they have changed plans, and will be remaining open. The company will primarily grow Williams variety bananas, and will invest $1 million in hydro-electric power and a bio-diesel (cooking grease) to fuel plant.

The future looks bright for Hawaii bananas.

While Travelzoo announced yesterday that it reaches over 22 million unique visitors each month, the news there is far from rosy.

First, their advertised deals are not always the best buy. We reported on June 12 that we found better savings to Hawaii using Travelocity’s flexible date search.

Now the President of Travelzoo, C.J. Kettler, has resigned following only 7 months in the position. Shares of Travelzoo (TZOO) have plunged from $30 to $10 over the past year.

What are the issues facing this once popular travel deal newsletter?

1. The fundamental ways in which travel deals are marketed has changed.

Travelzoo’s Top 20 newsletter deals have been their stock in trade. From its inception, these offerings were unique and often exceptional. Through word of mouth as well as excellent marketing, a huge number of travelers subscribed to their newsletter.

The very nature of today’s travel deals, and how they are promoted, has escaped Travelzoo’s previously successful business model.

Travel providers (hotels, car rentals and airlines), are finding it more effective and less expensive to promote their own offerings, including last minute deals, through their branded sites rather than with consolidators.

The very best offers that used to find themselves on Travelzoo are now often only available for a number of hours, instead of days.

2. Consolidation and contraction in the travel industry has reduced Travelzoo’s advertisers.

The major travel sites like Priceline, Expedia and Orbitz are now well focused on fast-changing and last minute deals, and are further squeezing Travelzoo.

Travelzoo is trying some new things, including providing geographically targeted deals through their partners, AOL, FareCast and Wcities. Even here Travelzoo is not unique with this industry trend.

3. Questionable management.

It was recently reported that Travelzoo has signed an extraordinarily expensive 10-year lease for offices at 590 Madison Avenue. The rent alone is equivalent to 15% of their annual profits.

If you have any recent experience with Travelzoo, be sure to add your comments.

The Kauai Museum continues their Traditional Hawaiian Quilt exhibit through July 25. I toured the exhibit recently and was quite partial to the pink quilt in this picture. There’s a reason why: I’m the proud owner!

There are many historic quilts on display and each one has a unique history. The placard next to this quilt made by my Great-Grandmother tells its story.

Starting August 1, the museum begins its Non-Hawaiian Quilt exhibit through October 1. The second half of the exhibit features the modern expression of quilt making from the the people of Kauai.

If you happen to be on Kauai, and see my Great-Grandmother’s quilt, be sure to let me know.

Kauai Museum Details

Admission: $10 for adults; discounts available for seniors, students and children. First Saturday of the month free!

Hours: Monday-Friday from 9-4; Saturday 10-4.

Location: Corner of Rice and Eiwa Streets in Lihue.

Special Workshop: Hawaiian Quilt Design, Saturday, July 19, 1pm.

Photo Courtesy of Kauai Museum and Chris Faye, Curator

Hawaii Superferry is not sustainable as a passenger ferry. Its problems are much worse than those the airlines are facing. This is because Superferry’s vessel, the Illikai, uses far more fuel per passenger than does an airplane.

Last month, Superferry carried only 29% of its passenger load, according to USA Today. Low ridership occurred in spite of:

• $49 promotional summer deal.
• Inter-island air fares doubling in price.
• Elimination of Aloha Airlines.
• Smoother summer-time ocean conditions.

Military or bust.

In separate news, the Honolulu Advertiser reported Superferry spent $210,000 lobbying for federal money for new ramps and other improvements that would let Superferry and its sister ship, now in production, dock in more places.

I have long-maintained that a military connection is the only possibility for keeping Superferry afloat in Hawaii. Some say, however, that these ramps will make the Superferry more viable outside of Hawaii.

This places its continued operation here, and our state’s investments therein, at even further risk. Superferry officials, including John Lehman, former secretary of the Navy, have long touted the military potential for the Superferry.

The Issues:

1. Fuel. Superferry is a diesel-fuel hog. It uses up to 7,000 gallons of fuel per voyage. At 29% of passenger capacity, Superferry’s fuel cost may be nearly $120 per passenger. Even at capacity (880 passengers plus vehicles and cargo), their cost is approaching $40 per passenger at today’s fuel prices. By comparison, Hawaiian Airline’s fuel cost per passenger is now about $22. As with the airlines, Superferry did not envision $5 gallon diesel fuel. Thus it does not have a financially viable business model and that will not likely change.

2. Comfort. A letter from Superferry, posted last week on Arthur Frommer’s blog, stated:

“Particularly now, during the calmer summer ocean conditions, it is not a seasick-making Superferry.”

From what you’ve previously read and seen here, winter makes the voyage uncomfortable at best, and has caused countless service cancellations.

3. Costs. The $49 promotional fare is valid through September 30. A fare adjustment to bring the fare into alignment with their costs, will in effect, stop most ridership. Also, while car rental companies have now made it possible to bring a rental car aboard Superferry, exorbitant drop fees make it all but impossible to do so other than on round-trip voyages.

4. Perception. Among Hawaii residents, Superferry has not met with wide-scale approval. A Pacific Business News poll last week indicated that only 15% of their business readers have ventured aboard the Illikai so far.

5. Time. The three hours that it takes Supeferry to transit between Oahu and Maui is longer than most people want to spend, when jet travel takes just over 20 minutes.

Recommendation:

1. Continue to use Superferry through September 30.
2. Plan to use airline alternatives during the winter months to avoid rough seas.
3. Watch for further news.

Unable or unwilling to reach terms for a complete merger of the two companies, United Airlines and Continental Airlines today announced a comprehensive plan for global cooperation. This agreement allows the companies to join forces without the the anti-trust issues associated with a merger.

On the surface this includes:

• Continental to join United’s Star Alliance
• Code-sharing agreement
• Shared lounges
• Combined facilities utilization
• Shared information technology
• Shared procurement

Not mentioned, but likely to be included:

A reduction in competitive services. This could reduce flights between the mainland and Hawaii and further raise fares.

My prediction:

It’s also a step towards Continental acquiring Hawaiian Airlines. I have long thought this would occur following the consolidation among the larger players.

When I’m researching and planning a trip, I need a place to keep all of my notes and information. I’ve tried Word, paper, and several trip planning applications. For now, however, the one that works best for me is Helipad.

Let me start by saying that there are more sophisticated and powerful applications for group trip planning. Two I’m familiar with, and have used are, I’m in! and TripHub. These applications include many features. With them you can create a trip home page, send invitations, share and discuss plans, see each other’s itineraries, and much more.

When I’m planning a vacation alone or with one or two others, Helipad is easier to use than other applications. It’s simple, works great and there’s nothing to learn. It is similar to how I previously used Word documents for trip planning, but it works infinitely better.

Helipad is a web notepad or streamlined wiki. It is a collaborative tool that has many other uses. Here’s why I like using Helipad as the repository for my trip plans:

• Includes a “To-Do” list plugin.
• Puts an end to frustrating email-based planning.
• Serves as a one-stop repository for all trip documents and planning.
• Provides access to trip information wherever there is Internet.
• Easily moves items between other applications and Helipad.
• Offers a variety of fonts and styles for printing.
• Formats notes for your cell phone.
• Automatically saves and backs up notes and is secure.
• Option for notes to be private, shared via password, or public.
• Offers custom note themes.

Here’s how I use Helipad.

1. Create separate notes for:

• Airline, hotel and car rental planning and reservations.
• Restaurant possibilities.
• Various categories of things to do while on the trip.

2. As I make reservations or find useful articles and ideas on the Internet, I paste them (or their URL) into my Helipad note. I collaborate with my travel partners by sharing the same notes.

Helipad started in 2006, is based in the UK and free to use. Give it a try and let me know what you think.

The first Chinese organized tour of the United States began today with 250 visitors arriving from Beijing, Shanghai and Guangdong. Each person paid approximately $4,000 to be part of the tour.

Chinese visitors have previously been able to visit independently. An agreement signed last year which made the United States an approved destination, however, is expected to significantly increase Chinese travel here, possibly to the tune of billions of dollars. Chinese tour operators can now market packages to U.S. destinations and the United States can advertise travel directly in China.

Surprisingly, according to U.S. Department of Commerce, Chinese travelers on average spend $6,000 per visit to the United States; the highest per capita from any country.

This first tour group is spending 12 days in Washington D. C., New York, Los Angeles, San Diego, and in Hawaii. Special events honoring them will take place in various cities including Honolulu.

The United States is China’s fifth largest tourist destination, and last year more than 700,000 Chinese visited our country.

If you want to come home from your Hawaii vacation with more than a tan, here’s a new offer from Norwegian Cruise Line (NCL) for the discriminating voyager.

Starting this fall, you’ll be able for the first time to get medically supervised Botox, Restylane and Perlane treatments at sea here in Hawaii. In an industry first, NCL is adding their Mandara medi-spas on every ship. This includes their Pride of America which has weekly 7-night cruises of the Hawaiian Islands.

The medi-spa compliments NCL’s regular menu of treatments that include:

• Spa services for skin, body, hair, nail and massage.
• Teeth whitening, micro dermabrasion and cellulite reduction.

All of the medical treatments are supervised by Dr. Brad Herman, a Miami-based, board-certified plastic surgeon and his specially trained team of licensed doctors.

NCL president and CEO, Colin Veitch, had this to say:

“Our spas are the best at sea and we are continually looking for ways to enhance the guest experience on board our ships. By being the first to offer these popular medi-spa treatments, we are furthering the tradition of NCL-led innovation in the cruise industry.”

Reviews of NCL’s traditional spa treatments are mixed, and the services are not cheap.

When your friends comment on your new look, just tell them that you owe it all to our island paradise. Either no one, or only your shipboard friends, will know for sure.

There’s a new Price Assurance policy at Orbitz. Here’s how it works. If the flight you book on Orbitz becomes available later at a lower price, they’ll refund the difference up to $250 per ticket.

While it sounds good, the fine print tells a different story.

“If…after you have booked…another Orbitz customer has booked the same flight(s), meaning the same dates/times of travel, on the same airline, with the same flight numbers, for the same passenger type, itinerary, cabin, and subject to the same fare refundability, or other restrictions, that is at least $5 lower than the airfare you booked on Orbitz.com, Orbitz will refund you the difference up to a maximum of $250.00 per ticket.” (Whew!)

The problem we see with the Orbitz offer is how airlines price tickets. For example, the huge fare sale we saw on Memorial Day was in a T fare code. Let’s say I had already purchased a more expensive ticket that was issued in an O fare code. Since the fare sale was in a different fare code, I would not be eligible for Price Assurance under the Orbitz policy.

Suggestion: If you can, try to wait, watch and buy immediately when deals appear. If you can’t wait and must buy at a high price, the Orbitz Price Assurance will help only if the specific requirements are met.

We’d like to hear if you get any refund using Orbitz new policy.