BEAT OF HAWAII AND BEYOND

Alaska Airlines’ Hawaii fares continue to drop while the scope of the deals expand. Their last sale which I wrote about on August 19 has now been extended for purchases through September 10.

I think we will definitely still see cheaper deals appear in these markets, but if you are ready to buy, these are good prices nonetheless.

In this pricing round, upcoming Oakland service deals have now been included.  Here are some examples:

Oakland-Kona $189
Seattle – Honolulu $148
Portland – Kona or Kahului $149

• Book online at Alaska Airlines.
• Fares are one way plus tax of approximately $10.
• Dates:  Travel by December 16.
• Availability:  Excellent. Some Thanksgiving dates are still available for about $25 more each way.
• Advance purchase:  14 days.

I’ve just been reading about the new $50 per bag fee imposed on international flights by Continental and US Air.  But you needn’t go further than flying within Hawaii to feel the sting of the baggage fee bee.

As we’ve been discussing, the now long-standing inter-island airfare war was rekindled by what became a blunder of Mokulele Airlines. Their $299 all you can fly offer, was quickly one-up’d by Hawaiian and Go!, both of which announced $24.99 one-way fares. With egg on its face, Mokulele has matched the other carriers.

Where the baggage fees fit in.

Starting September 1, Mokulele Airlines will join Go! in charging $10 for the first check bag, while Hawaiian now charges nothing.  Therefore a $24.99 fare with one checked bag and tax turns out like this:

• $41.00 Go!
• $31.00 Hawaiian
• $41.00 Mokulele

Cost examples.

• For a family of four flying one roundtrip, with one checked bag each, Hawaiian will save you a significant $80.
• To use the $299 pass, it takes 6 roundtrips to make it worthwhile.  One person checking a single bag adds $120 to the cost of the pass.  Thus, when checking a single bag, the pass would not break even until more than 8 roundtrips.

It isn’t clear whether Hawaiian will join in the $10 baggage fee, or if Go! and Mokulele will ultimately have to back down.

Stay tuned, we’ll let you know what happens next.

While the date is only August 26, the seasonal change we usually see in Hawaii around September 1, has already occurred. This is autumn in Hawaii.

Days are shorter, cooler, the sun more angled, and the light more beautiful.  The Old Farmer’s Almanac is predicting an average fall temperature of 79 degrees, 2 degrees below normal.

Hawaii’s Dry and Wet Seasons

We still likely have two to three months remaining before the traditional rainy season begins.  Good news for those planning a fall escape to the islands.

Dry season runs from May through at least October.

Aside from an occasional tropical storm, the rain pattern is mostly away from the beach, in what is called “mauka” or mountain showers.

Mauka showers, driven by the prevailing trade winds, cross the island mountains from the northeast to the southwest, leaving the south and west sides warmer and dryer.

While mountains and valleys receive rain, it’s usually dry at the coast, which typifies our micro-climatic conditions.

Wet season is mid-November to late December and ends in April.

During this time Hawaii has usually two very rainy months, and sometimes more.  It’s not possible to predict when this will be.

When the rains come, they can be inescapable and longer lasting.  The longest non-stop period I can recall was three years ago, when we had 43 days of virtually continuous rainfall.

Come enjoy Autumn in Hawaii, the best time of all.

Updated 9/2.

The $25 fare for September was pulled by Go! and Mokulele.  However, if you’ve already signed up for the offer at Hawaiian Air, it remains valid through September.

Also today, Hawaiian announced that effective 9/14, they will follow the lead of Go! and Mokulele by implementing a $10 first bag fee.

Remember that to get the $25 price on Hawaiian Airlines, you need to have set up a free Hawaiian Miles account prior to August 31.  Then you’ll see the offer when you go to check flights.

As I’ve recently been predicting, the inter-island fare war is back on, big-time. A few days ago Mokulele Airlines announced a $299 pass for unlimited flying in September (not include taxes and baggage fees).

Not to be outdone, both Hawaiian and Go! have met Mokulele’s offer, and one up’d it by introducing an unbeatable fare of $24.99 (plus tax), also valid for the entire month of September.

What’s more, on Hawaiian, if you fly before 10am or after 2pm, each inter-island roundtrip qualifies you for 10% off a future mainland trip.

Here are the rules:

• $24.99 one way
• Sign up by 8/30 (Hawaiian only)
• Book from 8/24-9/30
• Travel through 9/30

An important note:  Both Go! and Mokulele are now charging $10 for the first checked bag.  If you’re checking bags, that makes Hawaiian’s price the best by far.

I’ll follow up on this, as we will likely see further developments in this renewed fare war.

A reader posted this question on our Facebook fan page wall yesterday.  Since it’s something that many people care about, I thought I would share my response with you.

Will there really be 2009 Holiday deals?

I don’t want to be Scooge, but if you want me to generalize, my answer is no.  Between December 17-31, the deals will be near non-existent for mainland departures.

Christmas break has the long-standing reputation of being the very most expensive time to visit Hawaii, and this year, with minor exceptions, should be no different.

Looking back at the 2008 holiday season.

There were only a few deals, which occurred in late November and early December.  By that time the airlines knew what routes were not doing well, and added deals to boost traffic.  Key to the airlines’ strategic timing was that early planners and last minute fliers would be excluded from the deals.

Here’s what the deals were in 2008:

• LA to Honolulu, Kahului or Lihue $500 on United and Delta Airlines.

• Sacramento to Honolulu $350-$370 on United, Delta and Hawaiian Airlines.

How much should I expect to pay for the 2009 holiday season?

West Coast to Hawaii airfares for the peak Christmas/New Year holiday weeks have been in the $700-$1,000+ range for as many years as I can remember.  East Coast departures typically add another $200-$300 to the cost.

When to buy?  Consider one of the following strategies:

1.  Buy now if you have your dates and plans set.

Avoid seeing fares increase several hundred dollars leading up to the holidays.  If fares sales from your city don’t occur, you’ll be in the best possible situation.

2.  Wait until the “possibility” of fare sales.

Should that happen, I expect to see the deals pop sometime from October 1 to early December.  It’s a gamble but may pay off.

Another fairly good deal today, this one from Alaska Airlines.  As we move into the Fall deal season, Alaska is rapidly lowering the cost of travel from throughout the Pacific Northwest to Hawaii.

This is the most notable of their deals.  If you are traveling from another location in Washington, Oregon or British Columbia, however, do check out their current Hawaii promotion.

Upcoming Oakland service deals are not a part of this early Fall offer, but look for those to show up again soon.

• Cost:  $319 roundtrip (all-inclusive)
• Airlines:  Alaska Airlines
• Dates:  Travel by November 17
• Availability:  Excellent
• Advance purchase:  None
• Minimum/maximum days:  None

Fares are inching their way down now, looking for the level at which we consumers will actually click “buy.”  If you are ready to jump in now and not wait for the better deals certain to be coming ahead, this important route just got cheaper by nearly $70.

The only gotcha here is the creative use of very limited dates.  Otherwise, on other dates the price goes up by about $15 round trip.

• Cost:  $359 roundtrip (all-inclusive)
• Airlines:  Delta/Northwest Airlines
• Available dates:  21 Aug, 26 Aug, 09 Sep, 10 Sep, 13 Sep through 17 Sep, 23 Sep, 07 Oct through 09 Oct, 12 Oct, 14 Oct 09, 16 Oct, 18 Oct through 31 Oct
• Advance purchase:  None
• Minimum/maximum days:  None

Air Canada announced today that beginning in December, they will launch the only non-stop, seasonal service between Calgary and Hawaii.

We’re always glad to see new service added to bring our Canadian friends to visit here in Hawaii.  WestJet has had most of the recent news, and in December will start their latest service between Vancouver and Lihue, Kauai.

Calgary to Hawaii details:

• $269 Cdn one-way plus tax from Calgary to Honolulu.
• $299 Cdn one way plus tax from Calgary to Maui.
• Two flights weekly will serve Honolulu and three flights weekly will serve Maui.
• Service starts on December 5, with additional flights being added later in December.
• The flights will be operated using 2-class Boeing 767-300ER aircraft.

I feel strongly that we’ll see excellent promotional prices from both Air Canada and competitor WestJet as their new service launches approach.  We will definitely be keeping an eye out for both carriers.

No deals today, so Rob says that I’m scraping the bottom with today’s post.

It starts with an El Al flight from Bangkok to Tel Aviv last week that reported all of its Boeing 767 lavatories failed mid-flight. With 6 hours remaining on an 11 hour flight, the plane continued on its journey in spite of passenger demands that it be stopped.  Flight attendants halted service of all liquids.

I’m sure there many sighs of “Oy Vey” on board.

The plane was over land after all and not in the middle of some large ocean.  A short rest stop could have been added.  El Al apparently apologized but offered no compensation.

Now the Hawaii connection.  What if this had happened on a flight across the Pacific?  An all bathroom failure has never been reported to Hawaii (as far as I know) and the chances are slim.

The longest you could actually find yourself from nearest land en route to Hawaii is under three hours.  That’s still a long time when nature calls and could result in a tense situation.

What would I do?  Grin and bear it.  Mediate on anything not having to do with water, rivers or oceans.  Jump up and down.  If you have anything to add, please do.

Hopefully Fall deals will be announced soon to get me back on track.

The upcoming travel season through next spring, should be replete with airfare deals to Hawaii. By next summer, however, predictions for a stronger economy and a resurgence of travel could mean significantly higher prices.

We are repeatedly asked when airfare sales will be occurring now that the summer peak season is winding down. Actually, low season has already officially started, even though most airfare prices don’t seem to show it yet.

Here’s my best thinking of what you can expect for deals this season.

1. Pacific Northwest will be the hottest market.

In just the past week the cost to fly from Seattle to Honolulu has dropped by 25% and is now at $298 round-trip on Hawaiian. I expect to see Seattle and Portland fares continue to drop, especially on service to Honolulu and nonstop flights to the outer islands.  Likely we will again see round-trip fares for as little as $200 (plus tax of about $20), from time to time, as we saw last year.

Regionals and former partners, Hawaiian and Alaska, are going head to head starting this Fall.  They are joined by Delta/Northwest, and to a lesser degree United.

2. Bay Area will be the second hottest market.

When Alaska rolls out its Hawaii service from Oakland in November, expect to see some of the best fares.  Hawaiian and Alaska are going to duke it out from Oakland, with competition from neighboring airports exacerbated by United, American and Delta/Northwest.

Don’t forget that Alaska and Hawaiian are going to make the deal even sweeter. In honor of their competition, both carriers have promotions that will save you from 10 to 40 percent.

3.  Single most important market to Hawaii remains Los Angeles.

With no shortage of competition there, I anticipate frequent, intermittent return of the $99 (each way) airfares that were available from last fall until as recently as two months ago.

4.  Midwest and East Coast will have deals, but are less predictable.

So what’s the trick?  It’s all in the timing.

Sit poised and ready to pounce as soon as we post the deals at Beat of Hawaii.  Get you calendar out since the bulk of Fall and Winter deals could come at any time.

The best value airfares only last a couple of days, and the most in demand dates are gone within a few hours.  I suggest you subscribe to Beat of Hawaii using RSS, Twitter or Facebook, in order to find them in time.

The best deals last year were announced in October; I predict they’ll be sooner this year.

The airlines waited, hoping against hope that higher fares would be sustainable.  Ultimately of course, they were not, and as a result we’ve seen unprecedented deals in airfares from all over the US, Canada, Australia and Europe.

This year the airlines are not deluded in their thinking.  They know that this winter will likely be as bad as last year.  Therefore, I expect that Fall/Winter fares will start to drop later this month and in September.

Last season’s top deals are a good predictor of what to expect.

Find your city to see what could be possible this season.  We’ll compare notes next year and see how it all turned out.

The fares below are expired deals from the past year.

Chicago to Maui $419 roundtrip

Washington DC to Honolulu $421 roundtrip

Denver to Honolulu $111 each way

Roundtrip air plus hotel for two! $589 (all-inclusive)

Sacramento to Honolulu $350 roundtrip (including holidays)

Vancouver to Honolulu $225 roundtrip (all-inclusive)

London to Honolulu $397 roundtrip

San Francisco to Honolulu $250 roundtrip (all-inclusive)

Boston to Maui $367 roundtrip

LA or SF Air to Kauai plus Kauai Sheraton $400 total

Portland to Honolulu $258 roundtrip (all-inclusive)

San Francisco to Kauai $265 roundtrip (all-inclusive)

East Coast cities to Hawaii just over $300 roundtrip

Phoenix to Honolulu $117 each way

Newark or Atlanta to Honolulu $100 each way

Houston, Dallas, Minneapolis, Salt Lake City to Honolulu $100 each way

When I saw this promotional Tweet yesterday from Travelzoo, announcing Hot Hawaii airfares, I clicked to see if it would be useful to our readers.

What I found was their offer from Delta showing Seattle at $330 and New York at $494.

So why aren’t these deals so “hot?”

1.  Seattle.  Delta’s $330 fare has already been undercut by Hawaiian Air by more than $30.  Intense competition from the Pacific Northwest to Hawaii will keep fares low and might later result in $200 airfares like we had last winter.

2.  New York.  If you’re a Delta frequent flier, the $494 fare is fine.  But if you’re not, I’d look at Continental’s non-stop for $20 less from Newark to Honolulu.  Beyond the small monetary savings, you won’t waste your time being dragged through multiple airports like Atlanta or Minneapolis.

Success at the cost of credibility.

Travelzoo’s business depends on proving their value to advertisers through your clicks.  On that basis, they succeeded with their Tweet.  On the other hand, it was at the cost of me questioning their deal.

Bottom Line:  Do your research before buying.

The way the travel industry sells tickets is to use words like sale, hot or deal.  We all know that.  But saying you have a good deal and actually having one is a different matter.  The best deal for you depends on many factors including price, convenience, airline brand in some cases, and more.

Hawaiian Airlines has released their fall fares, which are valid for travel starting immediately.  They work either starting on the mainland or in Hawaii.  Some go through November 14 while others go through December 11. These are round-trip, but do not include approximately $20 in tax.

My thoughts on if you buy now or wait.

Fares valid through November 14 represent good value.

If these fit your travel dates, I wouldn’t hesitate to move on them.  They are largely based on competition with prior partner Alaska Air in the Pacific Northwest, and US Airways from Phoenix.

Second group of fares valid through December 11 are for the most part not a good deal.

With the exception of Thanksgiving week, they will definitely be coming down.  I’d suggest waiting with the exception of Seattle.

And at over $600 with tax, Las Vegas is perhaps ridiculous enough to peak the competitive interest of US Airways.

Two Sets of Fares, some dates cross over.

Travel: Now – 11/14/2009

Honolulu – Phoenix $318
Honolulu – Portland $298
Honolulu – San Diego $418
Honolulu – San Jose $298
Honolulu – Seattle $298

Maui – Portland $298
Maui – Seattle $308

Travel: 8/22 – 12/11/2009

Honolulu – Las Vegas $585
Honolulu – Los Angeles $458
Honolulu – Oakland $454
Honolulu – Phoenix $355
Honolulu – Portland $390
Honolulu – Sacramento $518
Honolulu – San Diego $530
Honolulu – San Francisco $434
Honolulu – San Jose $434
Honolulu – Seattle $338

Maui – Portland $428
Maui – Seattle $398