2010 Hawaii Travel Trends
To begin the new year I’ve put together my top 5 predictions and trends in Hawaii travel. If you have any to add, be sure to comment.
1. New airline routes to Hawaii and a new carrier.
These routes will likely be from the West Coast, where cost-effective 737 service is distance-viable. Expect to see more service from Orange County and from San Diego this year. I predict that Allegiant Air will begin service to Hawaii from either Fresno or Bellingham (WA).
2. Sales more sporatic than 2009. What has played out over the past few months is less frequent sales of shorter duration. Fall 2009 deals were slower to materialize than in 2008, and I expect that same trend to continue through the Spring. Airlines are in better control of their inventory, having reduced seat availability and downsized equipment to fill flights without as much discounting.
3. Expensive summer season (mid-June through early August). All indications are that Hawaii will have an improved peak summer season. Even if that doesn’t prove true, airlines, hotels and car rentals will hold out until the very end before discounting for those dates. If you plan to visit Hawaii during peak season, I suggest buying air and reserving car and hotel as quickly as is viable.
4. Hotel bargains. Outside of peak season dates of summer and holidays, Hawaii hotels will continue to suffer with too much inventory to adequately stabilize pricing. Therefore, expect to find great hotel deals from all sources including superior deals from Priceline and Bidding for Travel. If you’re a good negotiator, call the property directly to get a deal.
5. Variability in rental car prices.
Downsizing the Hawaii automobile fleets has resulted in a tighter rental market. During peak season expect expensive and/or difficult to find rentals. To avoid problems, I now suggest making at least a tentative reservation immediately prior to booking air travel.
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Regarding Allegiant… did you see their most recent aircraft purchase:
http://boardingarea.com/blogs/thingsinthesky/2010/01/04/allegiant-to-grow-fleet-with-purchase-of-sas-md-80s/
It doesn’t sound like they’re planning to add another fleet type in the near-term.
Thanks for your comment Oliver. Allegiant has been quite clear about their plans to serve Hawaii as quickly as is feasible. Therefore they will be adding another type of plane, which is unrelated to their acquisition of more MD-80’s.
Aloha, Jeff
Hau’oli Makahiki Hou to the editors of Beat of Hawaii from Best Hawaii Vacation blog,
Interesting read your ‘prophecies’ for the 2010 Hawaii vacation season. I was very happy to see that the 2009/2010 Hawaii winter season got really busier than a lot of our Hawaii hosts had expected. Maybe a few had to come down from their very high nightly rates from the years before the ’slowdown’ but all in all it is a great Hawaii winter season.
My personal belief for 2010 is that Hawaii will again live up to its claim as a top vacation destination with generally lower accommodation rates for vacation rentals. However, visitors are facing a big tax increase from the current 12.42% Hawaii State & Transient/Accommodation Tax to 13.42% after 6/30/10.
Hope this won’t keep our Hawaii summer visitors away. There is no place like Hawaii.
Aloha Pua and Keoki
Best Hawaii Vacation Blog
Happy New Year to you and Keoki Pua! Thanks for your comment.
Aloha, Jeff
Jeff, do you think they get enough utilitzation out of Hawaii flights to justify adding a new aircraft type? Presumably they are not just going to buy a single 737 or 757. Would Bellingham and/or Fresno give them enough traffic?
Admittedly, Fresno is in the middle of nowhere, far away from any major airport, but if there was a big enough demand, I would have expected the likes of Suntrips or Pleasant Hawaiian/ATA to send some charter flights from there to the islands (yes, I know, ATA isn’t around anymore…)
Hi Oliver,
Thanks for writing.
Allegiant has been clear that they intend to serve Hawaii as quickly as feasible. Bellingham is redoing their runways to accommodate heavier planes, which among other things would make that location seem likely. Fresno is repeatedly talked about, but I wonder too about adequate Central Valley traffic.
As for Suntrips, they used Ryan Air planes, but I haven’t seen them around HI in a long time. I think they’re pow. Pleasant Holidays buys bulk seats on UAL.
Aloha, Jeff
Yeah, I remember my one trip to the islands with SunTrips (I think the flight was operated by Ryan Intl.). The seat pitch must have been 28″ — it would have been laughable if I hadn’t been stuck in that tube for 5 hours. Since then, my carrier of choice has always been United for its Economy Plus seating (and more recently, upgrades).
And yes, I think Suntrips went under a few years ago. As I am sure you remember, Pleasant Hawaiian used to partner with ATA — I remember those ancient L-1011s with Pleasant Hawaiian livery at SFO.
http://www.airliners.net/photo/0482819/M/
As for Fresno — I have the feeling that Allegiant might be successful with one-way or open-jaw (Fresno-Hawaii-anywhere else) offerings
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Hotwire.com is having great rates for pick-up at HNL. I just booked a mid-size car for 10.95 per day for mid-June until the end of June.
I really need your advice!!
We’re flying our family of 5 to Kauai this summer (have booked a timeshare through our realtor from 7/1 to 7/8).
The timeshare was a steal, but the airfare is killing our budget. I was hoping for some price reductions after the first of the year. Do you think I should buy now or watch a bit longer.
We were also toying with the idea of adding a few days before the timeshare and using a Pleasant Holidays air/car + three days hotel as a way to cut our airfare costs.
Any advice??
Hi Kim,
I’d try Pleasant, but wouldn’t expect them to be much lower for your most peak travel dates. You didn’t say where you’re flying from, but I recently commented on summer planning, and think in most cases it’s likely better to book sooner than later. If you give me your departure city, I’ll comment further.
Aloha, Jeff
Thank for the quick reply Jeff!
We are flying out of Sacramento, but are willing to drive to San Francisco or Oakland for a better rate.
Thanks,
Kim
Hi again Kim,
The Bay Area is one I addressed in that post. Unfortunately your specific dates surround the July 4 holiday, and so are yielding somewhat grim results. I checked all airports and different ways of buying, but it starts at close to $700. I’d choose which airport/airline based on convenience. If you went a week later the price could be $200+ less.
I think I might buy sooner than later, because there is an upward price potential to about $1,000.
Jeff
Aloha, Jeff
Hi Jeff:
I too am looking at aifare to/from KOA July 10-17. We will depart either out of PHX or LAX – but pricing is pretty high out of both. We’ve heard to look at flights at 1am on Wednesday morning when the airlines upload new fares and to also wait until one week before the end of high season to book…do you have any suggestions on this?
Thanks!
Tiffany
Hi Tiffany,
Yes fares from both cities are expensive, in the $700 range, as would be expected for those dates. Wednesday mornings has nothing to do with finding deals. Airfares are released 25 times each week and your deal could occur at any time. If there is a any better deal for your dates, it might happen in April, May or later. On the other hand, the price could go higher by as much as $300. As I’ve said previously, unfortunately the airlines are in excellent control of pricing at the moment.
Aloha, Jeff
Aloha!
I love your blog, both as a vacation property manager on the Big Island and also a traveler! I came across it when I searched from cheapest travel time Hawaii / East Coast.
Do you have any thoughts on airfare for us ka’amaina traveling the other way ? (west to East)
-Cat
Jeff, it seems as though you are pretty knowledgeable in Hawaii travels so I have a question for you if you don’t mind. I’ve been looking at flights to Maui (OGG) for a week or two, and the prices seemed pretty consistent at about $540 for non stop flights from LAX (5/29-6/5), and then all of the sudden prices skyrocketed to ~740-950 for the same flights in the matter of hours checking! Now I am kicking myself because I didn’t buy the good deal when I had the chance yesterday. I feel that I gambled and lost big time. Do you know anything about the way flight prices work and when the best time to buy is (besides yesterday)? now, I guess I’m wondering if I should just go with buying the best deal now, which is no deal at all, or wait a bit for a miracle to happen.
Thanks, asia
Hi Asia,
I’m finding $502 all-inclusive for your dates on American Airlines. Details: AA253 Sat, May 29 9:30a-12:10p, AA7922 Sat, June 5 12:15p-12:49p, AA284 Sat, June 5 3:10p-11:30p .
Moreover, domestic fares change literally 20 times per week, and your deal (or a price hike) could be found in any of them.
Aloha, Jeff
Hi Cat,
Nearly everything we publish deal-wise is usable in both directions. That’s how we got into this in the first place, looking for deals from Hawaii to the Mainland. If we fail to mention it (as most of our readers are on the mainland), do assume it anyway.
Aloha, Jeff
Hi there…..
Interesting predictions! I live in Bellingham and would be stoked to see Allegiant fly to the islands…
After living on the Big Island with my fiance a couple years back, I’m going back with my family to show them around. We’ll be in Waikiki a few nights, and I’ve heard from some people that just came back that walking in to many hotels same-day will garner some great walk-in rates, as opposed to setting something up ahead of time. This is specifically for Waikiki.
Any tips for me?
thanks in advance.
Hi Kelsi,
It wouldn’t be something that I would do, but it might just work out great. I’d prefer to use Priceline. We’ve written a lot about that if you want to search for it on the site. Let us know what happens.
Aloha, Jeff
I subscribe to a bargain airfare newsletter and saw quite a few sales around Spring Break, which makes me think that waiting to purchase tickets may be the better deal. I’m now planning a trip from PDX to Lihue in Feb. 2011. Should I purchase tickets now or do you think prices will fall and/or a sale be offered? My head is spinning trying to figure this out.
Thanks, Elaine.
Hi Elaine,
If anyone tells you they know the answer to your question, they’re telling a lie. The fares are presently in the mid to high $600’s, so I don’t think there is much chance of them going a lot higher. The potential for lower fares looks better. It does depend on your nerves however, since they may get rattled waiting and watching.
Aloha, Jeff
Always remember to DELETE COOKIES OR USE A DIFFERENT COMPUTER when rechecking fares. Can’t stress this enough. THEY KNOW YOU HAVE BEEN THERE LOOKING if you don’t clean the clock completely before revisiting!! And don’t check too often. Know what the general fares run then you know when you are seeing the ‘deal’ and pounce.
We have managed to snag $500 – $550 RT from StL to Kona our last 3 trips – every other odd year. Hoping to do the same for 2011.