A Reckoning For Hawaii Air Carriers

We’re quickly approaching Labor Day which marks the all-important shift from high to low season in Hawaii travel.

Other than the few deals we’ve reported on recently, the airlines are keeping fares at record highs, even with a recent decline in oil prices of nearly 20 percent.

Here’s what I believe is happening:

At the present pricing and flight schedules, there will be an extreme overabundance of air service for off-season travel to Hawaii.

Passengers are unwilling to pay $500 or more, plus taxes and other fees, for fall and winter, non-holiday airfares from California cities. Considering all costs, the fares are now running $200 or more than for this time last year.

Here’s a sampling of the current unworkable fares:

• Los Angeles to Honolulu – $517+
• Los Angeles to Lihue – $495+
• San Diego to Kona – $555+
• San Francisco to Kahului – $505+

Airlines serving Hawaii are immediately facing two choices: both start with reduction.

Either they will have to reduce off-season fares or they will have to significantly reduce air service. We should see one of these, or some combination thereof, within the next one to two weeks at most.

What this means to you:

Stay put and watch. This is truth or dare time, and I’m betting that price reductions are imminent. Why? Because airlines simply do not want to give up positioning for these generally lucrative routes.

If and when these cuts come, you’ll need to act fast. Look for:

• Steep discounts
• Availability for travel through Spring 2009 (except for holidays)
• Short-lived in terms of fare availability

Buckle up. It’s going to be an interesting fall.