Do Not Cave To High Hawaii Summer Airfares
This is shaping up to be the most interesting summer ever in terms of Hawaii air fares. No one, not even the airlines, has a clue as to exactly what will happen next.
As we’ve seen since late last week, the airlines have moved discounted Spring pricing out into the traditionally peak pricing periods of late June and even beyond.
Recent developments
Last Thursday, Friday and yesterday, many fares to/from Hawaii dropped dramatically. Some of the more notable ones included:
- Boston $360 through June 24
- Dallas $473 throughout summer and beyond
- Denver $463 throughout summer and beyond
- Los Angeles $408 throughout summer and beyond
- Washington DC $354 through June 25
Add Canada to the list
The following fare sale showed up today:
- Vancouver to Honolulu $418; to Kahului $450 through June 30 (Westjet)
What is going on?
Granted, the deals listed are still quite limited. Yet these fares would normally be double (or more) for many of the available dates.
Nearly two months in advance of summer, the airlines, who are the undisputed gurus in “yield management,” do not see adequate demand to support a traditional summer pricing structure. Travelers are simply not looking at or booking Hawaii in adequate numbers to evoke airline industry confidence.
Primary Mainland Departure Cities
The all-important West Coast departure cities (Los Angeles and San Francisco) are still holding their heads somewhat (though not traditionally) high. Here are today’s July airfares for example:
Los Angeles $408-$700+
In this key market, United, which still has the greatest lift to Hawaii, moved below its competition by at least $200 with the fare we posted of $408. Today I find availability at the same price on both American and Continental. Hawaiian, unaware or unconcerned, is asking over $700 for the same dates.
San Francisco $512-$600+
American is already dropping under the competition by nearly $100, which I again see as an indication of perceived weakness in demand and a likely upcoming fare war in this important market.
What I suggest
This is the summer of all summers to wait and see. If you have any flexibility or guts, just do not cave in to traditional summer Hawaii airfares.
If you don’t find the deals you’re looking for, just sit back and see what develops. I predict we will continue to see many here today, gone tomorrow airfare deals. Each deal will likely be followed by a return, either temporary or longer lasting, to more traditional pricing. A game of airline cat and mouse if you will.
Hang tight and watch. If I’m wrong, you’ll know who to blame. If I’m right, cudos gratefully accepted.
Most Important
When you do see the deal you want, don’t wait, even one hour. These deals will come and go faster than you can shake a stick at them. Be ready and pounce.
Hi,
Appreciate your efforts a lot. Can’t find a good fare to LIH (or HNL, for that matter) from SFO for 6/30-7/14 RT.Do you think they’ll come down similar to the LAX fares?
Thanks
The $500′ish fares to HNL on AA aren’t even bad for those dates. If you want to wait, they may well improve. But to get a better deal, you’ll need to watch it like a hawk.
Aloha, Jeff
Hi,
I really appreciate all of the information. We are planning a trip at the end of summer. We arrive 21 Aug in OGG and Depart KOA 2 Sept. when would you project fares for those time to be published. We are traveling from the East coast.
Thanks!
Hi Chris,
What are your possible departure cities? I looked at NYC airports and BWI, and they are still pretty high for 8/21 departure. My gut says you should be able to travel from East Coast for about $600, but I will keep eyes peeled for you.
Best, Jeff
Hi,
Wondering if you think $481 for direct flight from LAX to KOA for June 20 – June 26 is a good deal? Do you think Hawaiian Airline will start to lower their price?
Thanks
Hi Samatha,
Can you go the day before?
If so, at this moment, you can go on UA57 on the 19th, returning on UA58 on the 25th for $375.
Aloha, Jeff
Hi Jeff,
Unfortunately, we can’t fly out until the 20th.
Thanks.
Hi Jeff,
My Departure city can be BWI, Newark, or Phila. We are in Maui 21 Aug until 28 Aug, and Ultimately depart KOA on 2 Sept.
Let me know what you think.
Thanks,
Chris
Hi Chris,
No good deals “yet” for those low season dates. In fact the best Fall deals might not be out until July or August. If you want to buy now, perhaps RT to HNL from BWI for just over $500 (all carriers), and then $38 inter-island flights. Keep checking, and I will too.
Aloha, Jeff