Even though most airlines have reduced their Hawaii service and Aloha and ATA have gone out of business, there’s far more availability than is normal during the holidays.  In the past there have been many sold out travel dates by this time for Christmas holidays.  This year it’s still wide open.

There has also been far more variability in holiday airfare pricing this year than in the past.  Some of the amazing airfare deals we’ve recently written about had holiday dates available for under $350 RT.  I’m still finding some $500 airfares over Christmas as of this week.

If you want to come to Hawaii for the holidays but haven’t booked yet, the deals are getting more difficult to find as the airlines are hoping you’ll pay premium holiday prices.

Most of the current fares are in the $700 to $800+ range from the West Coast to Hawaii over prime holiday dates.  That price is very similar to last year.

Tip:  I wouldn’t put anything past the airlines, and the pricing rules of the past no longer apply.  If airlines don’t sell their prime holiday seats soon, they will either inch the prices down again, or we’ll see more wide-spread fare sales.

If you’re flexible with dates, and haven’t booked yet, you may want to wait and see what happens.  For travelers who aren’t as flexible, I suggest you book now.

Let me know how you “fare.”

• Look For New Hawaii Airfare Sales
• When To Find The Best Airfare Deals
• Orbitz “Price Assurance.” Does It Really Help?

Why? You will not see these values again, probably ever.  Without the crowds, this is truly the idyllic Hawaii of yesteryear.

This isn’t the first time I’ve pondered the economy and how it impacts those of us who live here in Hawaii as well as visitors coming on vacation.  Here are some additional thoughts:

1.  What deals will you find and how should you shop differently for a recessionary Hawaii vacation?

• Monitor for deals closely and be ready to pounce. If you have the flexibility, make it a relatively last minute vacation.  That will provide by far the best values in both air and hotels.  If you aren’t that flexible, you’ll still find unprecedented deals.
• Generally don’t buy a package.  In most instances, you’ll do better if you shop the airfare and accommodation deals separately.  Cut out the third-party online travel agencies, and go to the source.  Buy air travel from airlines, car rentals from car rental companies, hotel bookings from hotels directly, etc.
• Consider higher end properties.  These are the truly exceptional deals right now.  As I’ve said previously, don’t hesitate to call the hotel and ask if they can do any better on the price than the best deal that you’ve already found.  Chances are that between now and next summer, they can and will.
• Consider lower end properties too.  These deals are so cheap that they can seem to be too good to be true. We’ve seen reasonable accommodations in the $50/night range, and very nice rooms for under $70.  I’ll keep looking for and reporting on more of these.
• Negotiate excursions directly with tour providers.  If you’re too shy to do it yourself, have someone else call for you.  Try offering 50% of the asking price.  Maybe they can squeeze you in at the last minute if no one else shows.  Hawaii excursions have been very expensive and they are often the first thing to be cut on a budget vacation.  So this is a chance to get that helicopter ride or zipline tour at a highly affordable price.
• Gas prices are down.  Today we paid $2.30 a gallon.

2.  What is likely to happen next?

I expect the economy in Hawaii to stay at its current recessionary level or get worse over the next 6 months.  We’ll see visitors numbers continue to drop (down 9% so far and expected to drop another 5% next year) and have higher unemployment (now 4.2% and going up to perhaps 5.5% next year).

The first likely opportunity for improvement in Hawaii’s economy is summer 2009, and my guess is that any improvement then will be minor.  Therefore, next summer might bring somewhat higher air, hotel and car rental prices.  By next Fall though, they will likely decline again.  In the following year, 2010, I think we’ll start to see growth returning.  All of this is based of course on the larger national economy not sustaining any further dramatic events.

3.  Hawaii 2008 economy in review.

What has happened so far this year is a series of concomitant negative blows that have included:

• Aloha and ATA Airlines going out of business.
• NCL removing two of the three ships doing 7-day inter-island cruises.
• Inter-island transport issues of high airfare costs and multiple Superferry problems.
• A decline in disposable cash among both visitors and residents.

4.  What other things might we expect to see happen in Hawaii’s recession?

I don’t have a crystal ball, but here is some of what I see looming out there:

• Superferry is likely to cease operations.  They have too high cost, too few riders, a rough winter ocean ahead, and an upcoming decision about a complete environmental impact study, among other problems.
• Go! Airlines will probably fail.  Mesa Airlines (Go!’s parent) is not looking like they can stay in business.  I believe we’ll know by the Spring, which is traditionally when weak airlines fail.
• NCL may pull their last ship from Hawaii, resulting in no inter-island cruises.

I feel certain that we will be bringing you previously unimaginable Hawaii deals between now and next summer and I hope that you can be some of the lucky ones to take advantage of them.  Sign up so that we can drop them in your mailbox or reader.

• Hotel Occupancy To Drop And Deals To Reign
• Economist: Hawaii Now Much More Affordable
• 2008 Hawaii Superferry update: At $39, is this ride for you?

Since the places where Obama lived and went to school in Hawaii are on private property, why not create your own tour with a map and rental car?  Here’s my take on both options.

1.  Their tour:

The website claims the tour features “stories of childhood friends, teachers, and coaches.”  When I called to inquire what that meant, I was told that interviews had been conducted with those people for the tour.  There was no mention who these people are and their relationship to Obama.  Also keep in mind that the tour will drive by many locations.

The site claims that they have been “serving the visitor industry since 1992.”  It’s true.  Mitch also operates Hiking Oahu Hawaii.  I remember meeting him in the ’90’s when he hawked tours from the top of Diamond Head.

If you want to try the tour, it stops in downtown Honolulu, Chinatown, and at the Punchbowl National Cemetery of the Pacific where Obama’s grandparents are buried.

The cost is $49 (kids $39).  It operates daily from 1:00pm-3:30pm and includes pickup at selected Waikiki hotels.

2. Self-touring Obama Hawaii.

If you are somewhat skeptical about this tour, or If you aren’t the tour type, you definitely needn’t miss out on President-Elect Obama’s Hawaiian roots on your next trip to Honolulu.

Here are Barack Obama’s family residences in Honolulu, together with Google Mapping to each.

6085 Kalaniana’ole Highway.  Barack’s home, where he first lived in 1961.

1427 Alexander Street, Apartment 110.  Grandparents’ home from 1962 to 1963, where Barack and his mother also sometimes lived.

615 Eleventh Avenue.  Father’s home from 1960 to 1962, although the building is no longer there.

2234 University Avenue.  From 1964 to 1967, this was the home of Barack, his mother, and grandparents.

2277 Kamehameha Avenue.  In 1963, Barack’s mother lived here while she attended college.

1617 South Beretania Street.  From 1971 to 1979, Barack lived in this apartment building with his grandparents. This is where his grandmother lived until the time of her recent death.

1839 Poki Street.  Barack’s mother and younger half-sister lived here from 1974 to 1976.  Obama lived there sometimes as well.

You can also drive by Punahou School where Barack attended grades five through twelve.  It’s at 1601 Punahou Street.  Entry to the campus is limited during school hours.  You can buy a Punahou T-Shirt on line if you can’t visit the campus.

What do you think?  Would you pay $49 for the Obama Tour Hawaii or create your own?  Do you feel that it’s an invasion of privacy?  Let me know your thoughts.

• How Will President Obama Affect Hawaii?
• Join the Carnival of Aloha
• Honolulu Academy of Arts: The Dragon’s Gift

Updated 11/18/08 PM:  Upgrade complete.  Thanks for your patience.

Today we’re in the process of upgrading our website hosting, in order to better handle additional visitor traffic.  We have tried to work though all of the potential issues, and are hopeful of no downtime.  Aloha and mahalo, Rob and Jeff

• Is Hawaii Tourism Doom And Gloom?
• Sunday On The Beach with a Hawaiian Monk Seal
• Gecko-Proofing in Hawaii

A report out today from Price Waterhouse, and based on Smith Travel Research data, is forecasting a decrease in hotel revenue (per available room) of nearly 6 percent in 2009.

What it means for travelers:

As a result, hotels are widely expected to offer greater discounts on a regular basis. While this is bad news for the hotel industry, it represents another glimmer of light for the beleaguered travel consumer.

Here in Hawaii:

An over-abundance of Hawaii hotel rooms in relation to the number of visitors will likely create an even worse situation for accommodation providers, and a better situation for visitors.

Hawaii visitors are likely to be in an enviable position of practically naming their price.  That should be true on all but the most heavily traveled days of summer and holiday periods.

Since higher end hotels and resorts will continue to offer exceptional values, typically lower-priced accommodations including condos, and vacation rentals will be squeezed to either further reduce pricing or withdraw from the market.

Two of the hotel deals we recently featured were examples of unusually heavy discounts.  First was the Westin Princeville Ocean Resort Villas.  At $199, the pricing is far below anything anticipated for such a prime new location.  The very high-end Maui Grand Wailea, at $175, was another exceptional and unprecedented value.

Look for many more hotel (and airline) deals to come.  For those ready to vacation in Hawaii, the present and near term values are something we haven’t seen in nearly a decade.

• What To Expect In A Hawaii Recession
• Last Minute Hotel Booking Sites Circling The Drain
• Hawaii Air and Hotel $589 (All Inclusive) For Two

Updated 11/20:

1.  Mokulele, Hawaiian and Go! have extended the $45 fare validity for flights through December 31.  While the fare was due to expire on 11/19, it remains bookable.

2.  Island Air has joined the fare war in a very limited way:  $99 roundtrip fares from the outer islands to Honolulu, no bag fees and a $20 rental car from Budget. Outbound and return flights must be on same day. The offer is valid on December 1, 2, 3, 4, 8, 9, 10, 11.  Purchase by November 21.

3.  Look for the validity of these offers to be further extended and for the likelihood of more price reductions.

In a Hawaii-style poker game, this morning Mesa’s Go! Airlines joined the fare war and raised the stakes a bit. That was immediately followed by Hawaiian Airlines announcing ongoing $45 one-way fares on selected days and flights.

This is terrific news for holiday travelers to Hawaii, inasmuch as the Go! offer extends through December 31 and the Hawaiian offer is ongoing.  It will undoubtedly be joined by Mokulele, and is likely to get even better.

As I indicated would happen, this started over the weekend when newcomer Mokulele announced a $45 fare good through the end of November. Hawaiian matched that fare yesterday.

The Go! offer:

• $49 one-way between Honolulu and the outer-islands
• Book by November 19
• Travel November 17 through December 31
• Limited availability

The Hawaiian offer:

• $45 one-way between Honolulu and the outer-islands
• Limited Availability by day of week and flight
• Use weekly (not monthly) schedule to find this offer

• Fly Honolulu To Kona or Lihue $45
• Honolulu to Lihue or Kona $99 First Class
• Inter-Island Air $59; Dropping Soon

We’ve just entered our first rainy period since last Spring.  The weather is cool at night by Hawaii standards, high 60’s, and the rains are consistent.  These conditions are forecast to continue through the rest of this week, if not longer.

What does this mean for your Hawaii vacation?  Between November and April expect at least one month of rain.  That averages to 15 percent of the time in those six months.

The rain is a love and hate thing for me, inasmuch as I know that we need it. This is what keeps Hawaii beautiful, fills the reservoir, and keeps Muley’s grass growing.  At Beat of Hawaii’s headquarters on Kauai, we typically get over 100 inches of rain annually.

On the other hand, during these weather conditions, it just isn’t the Hawaii that we or our visitors think of.  If it rains long and hard enough, the otherwise clear and beautiful ocean fills up with dirt and runoff, and becomes unswimmable.

Today’s rain started me thinking about the weather here in Hawaii and how we see it from a local perspective.  Our seasonal weather variations are quite unusual, as compared with the U.S. mainland:

• Cool, “Ho’oilo” Season

September begins with cooler nights which then leads to cooler and shorter days.  It’s coolest from about December to March, before gradually returning to warmer conditions.  During this season you can expect an average high of 77 during the day and an average low of 62 at night.

• Warm, “Kau” Season

From May to Labor Day, expect longer and hotter days and balmier nights.  During this season our average high is 82 degrees and low of 70 when the sun goes down.

• Wet weather comes in two segments

The first in either November or December, and the second sometime between February and April.  The most common rainy months are November and March.  When these winter rains arrive, they are typically not geographically specific, and can equally impact all parts of all the islands.

• Dry Season, May to October

Dry weather prevails the rest of the year, although dry doesn’t exactly mean dry.  Dry weather here includes “mauka” or mountain showers.

These rains, driven by the trade winds, typically cross the higher elevations from the northeast to the southwest of the islands, leaving the south and west sides warmer and dryer.  Most of the rain is deposited in the mountains and valleys, turning dry at the coast, which typifies our micro-climatic conditions.

It is often possible to have sun and warmth only a block away from cool and rain.  During these “dry” conditions, you can typically escape from any rain by heading to nearby drier areas.

• Trade winds prevail more than 80 percent of the time

Typical Hawaii trades are based on subtropical high pressure ridges that bring cool winds from the north.  They also provide lovely clear conditions, and a cooling effect during otherwise warm periods.  Trade winds are also associated with dry weather and mauka rain conditions.

• Still or south Kona wind

When the winds stop or blow from the south, which is less than 20 percent of the time, the weather here isn’t optimal.  In the winter it will tend to be cold and wet and in the summer, humid.  South winds are common during periods of heavy winter rains.  In recent years, Kona winds also allow the VOG to move up from the Big Island and cover the other main islands.

• Q&A: When is the rainy season in Hawaii?
• Just How Bad Is The VOG?
• A Reckoning For Hawaii Air Carriers

As promised, the Hawaii inter-island airfare war is beginning, albeit slowly.

This morning, our new and up-scale player Mokulele Airlines, has lowered their fares from $59 to $45.

At this point, that price is only being offered on flights through the end of November.  It is available however for almost all of their flights.

Look for the following:

• The $45 fare to be available on Go! and Hawaiian too (likely later today).
• Subsequent expansion of the interisland airfare war beyond November.
• Further price reductions to below $45.

• Honolulu to Lihue or Kona $99 First Class
• Inter-Island Airfare War Escalates
• When Airlines Drag Feet On Fare Sales

Less than two weeks ago we had a one-day sale from Canada to Hawaii on Westjet.  This deal is even better, though you must still act quickly.

Cost:  $125 each way, which comes to $331 round-trip (all-inclusive)

Advance purchase:  7 days

Airline:  Air Canada, which can also be booked as United Airlines code share

Book by:  November 16 for travel through January 2009

Availability:  limited holiday dates

Note:  If you aren’t getting our deals quickly enough, please suscribe to our email or RSS feeds.

• Denver To Honolulu $111 Each Way!
• Sacramento to Honolulu $350 Including Most Holiday Dates
• Chicago to Maui $419 RT

The reason for using these is to get the most timely updates on travel deals tailored specifically to your travel plans.  The deals will arrive in your RSS reader as quickly as they are published.

Travelocity.  Their RSS subcription is easy to use and works much like that of Expedia.

1.  Enter type of trip (I chose custom).

2.  Select your departure city.

3.  Choose up to 5 cities in Hawaii (or elsewhere) whose deals you’d like to watch.

4.  Your custom Travelocity deal feed will be created.

Kayak.  Kayak’s RSS deal feed is considerably more complicated than those of Expedia or Travelocity.  It is doable however with a little patience, and ultimately can offer much more flexibility and specificity in the results the subscription will provide.

Here are a few examples that might help:

1.  To get the fares from Boston to Honolulu for December 2008, you would enter the following subscription into your favorite RSS reader.

http://www.kayak.com/h/rss/fare?code=BOS&dest=HNL&tm=200812

You can also add additional origination and destination choices, per their directions.  If you don’t want to choose a timer period leave off “&tm=,” etc.

I suggest you try using their examples of how to use the codes.  It isn’t all that easy though. If you get an error when you input the string into your reader, you’ll need to go back and try again.

Kayak and consumers would be well served to give more explanation and examples of how to use this most versatile RSS feed generator.

• Budget Travel: 10 Issues For 5 Dollars
• Hawaii Deal Alerts: Expedia and RSS
• Use Google Reader To Find Today’s Time-Sensitive Travel Deals