May 28 2008
Is Hawaii Tourism Doom And Gloom?
While the press is working hard at putting a negative spin on visitor traffic to Hawaii, I’m going to do just the opposite.
Take a closer look at what’s happening and I think you’ll agree with me:
Hawaii is bucking the trend and remains strong
There are big changes ahead as far as who is coming to our island shores. You may be quite surprised.
Hawaii visitor traffic expected to exceed 7 million in 2008.
According to University of Hawaii and Bank of Hawaii analysts, this will be a drop of about 4% compared with 2007. In today’s market and economy, being flat is a remarkable achievement.
Visitor traffic increased 2.8% during the first three months of the year. April’s traffic, however, declined 7.6%.
Month by month comparisons often do not represent the whole picture. For example, I believe traffic dropped in April due primarily to the timing of the Aloha and ATA airline bankruptcies, and the reduction of NCL Hawaii-based cruise ships.
Canadian visitor traffic begins to offset decline from California and Japan.
Last month, California visitors declined by nearly 25% over 2007, while Japan posted a 15% decline. Even though shopping in Hawaii remains a deal to Japanese visitors, they have been hit by rapidly escalating airfares to Hawaii.
Meanwhile, our Canadian friends are coming to Hawaii in ever increasing numbers. This is attributed to good air fares, convenient service and the strong Canadian dollar.
Canada posted a visitor increase of 48%, from approximately 20,000 in April 2007 to 30,000 in April 2008.
More changes coming: Korea and China Visitors Ahead
- Korea. Last month an agreement was reached between Korea and the U.S., encouraged by Hawaii officials, to allow Korean citizens to visit the U.S. without requiring visas.
- China. Non-stop service, three times a week from Beijing to Honolulu, will begin in July. It is being offered by the Chinese charter airline Mega Global Airways. In October, the company plans to begin Hangzhou to Honolulu service as well. A recent agreement between the U.S. and China for the first time allows Chinese visitors to participate in group tours in the U.S.
HNL Airport renovation to keep up with travel demands.
Look for Honolulu International Airport to be on the upswing. It’s currently rated 18th of 21 medium-sized airports for customer satisfaction (J.D. Power and Associates’ 2008 North America survey).
HNL is in year two of a twelve year $2.3 Billion renovation. The initial plan is to improve service, efficiency and security in the terminals, ticket counters, and infrastructure. Longer-term projects will increase the airports’ capacity overall.
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“Meanwhile, our Canadian friends are coming to Hawaii in ever increasing numbers. This is attributed to good air fares, convenient service and the strong Canadian dollar.”
If by good airfares you mean over $1000 CAD, per person, then sure. I’m still waiting for them to at least drop a couple hundred. Based on your numbers, I should be able to find a r/t ticket from Edmonton for two for under $2200…. eventually.
I hope.
Hi Kithree,
Thanks for your comment.
As you mentioned, the fares from western Canada aren’t as good at the moment, as those I noted last month on Westjet.
Since you inquired, I’ll keep my eyes pealed for the Canada to Hawaii deals and will put them right up.
Aloha,
Jeff
Hi again Kithree,
I hope you’re watching, because Air Canada has just announced an Edmonton-Honolulu $580 RT. There is an additional $100 RT fuel surcharge, but at $680 RT, that’s a lot better than the $1,100 you mentioned. Not only that, but this is for peak summer season travel.
Get it fast, as the deal ends tomorrow and availability could end it much sooner.
Aloha,
Jeff
I live in California. I paid 350 USD roundtrip from LAX to HNL in April (before the ATA and Aloha disaster). Now there is nothing cheaper than 500 USD, and the return is a red-eye. Do you think this will be the new norm? Will prices drop below 500 for any season, or will the actually climb? My family and I love Hawaii but the new prices I think mean that we will have to travel there less often. Thanks
Hi Kareem,
You’re right in believing that $500 is the new norm for off-season LAX-HNL. No one knows if it can go much higher, but I personally doubt it.
I believe we will still see fare sales because there are too many players and too many seats in the market. It was only about a month ago that we had the under $300 deals show up again.
Be ready to act fast though, if and when the next fare sales show up. Since the deals are fewer, people are watching and waiting, and they could be gone within hours, as was true last time.
Aloha, Jeff
Ummm..not sure about the math..a 100% increae in canadians is not gong to offset a 25% drop from california…sorry..not into eiether a positive or negative spin..it is what it is…AND…the question hawaii residents have to ask, position and market is ..
how unique is hawaii..realtive to the price for a hawaiian vacation…versus…cancun….san diego?
Please get real Hawaii..lots of soon to be displaced hotel workers will be wondering how to SURVIVE on an ISLAND that depends on 90% of its FOOD, FUEL and INCOME from OUTSIDE of the ISLAND….
lets market some aloha and show it when they arrive ….instead of selling we ant your money please leave and pay your excise tax..GET REAL HAWAII