The upcoming travel season through next spring, should be replete with airfare deals to Hawaii. By next summer, however, predictions for a stronger economy and a resurgence of travel could mean significantly higher prices.
We are repeatedly asked when airfare sales will be occurring now that the summer peak season is winding down. Actually, low season has already officially started, even though most airfare prices don’t seem to show it yet.
Here’s my best thinking of what you can expect for deals this season.
1. Pacific Northwest will be the hottest market.
In just the past week the cost to fly from Seattle to Honolulu has dropped by 25% and is now at $298 round-trip on Hawaiian. I expect to see Seattle and Portland fares continue to drop, especially on service to Honolulu and nonstop flights to the outer islands. Likely we will again see round-trip fares for as little as $200 (plus tax of about $20), from time to time, as we saw last year.
Regionals and former partners, Hawaiian and Alaska, are going head to head starting this Fall. They are joined by Delta/Northwest, and to a lesser degree United.
2. Bay Area will be the second hottest market.
When Alaska rolls out its Hawaii service from Oakland in November, expect to see some of the best fares. Hawaiian and Alaska are going to duke it out from Oakland, with competition from neighboring airports exacerbated by United, American and Delta/Northwest.
Don’t forget that Alaska and Hawaiian are going to make the deal even sweeter. In honor of their competition, both carriers have promotions that will save you from 10 to 40 percent.
3. Single most important market to Hawaii remains Los Angeles.
With no shortage of competition there, I anticipate frequent, intermittent return of the $99 (each way) airfares that were available from last fall until as recently as two months ago.
4. Midwest and East Coast will have deals, but are less predictable.
So what’s the trick? It’s all in the timing.
Sit poised and ready to pounce as soon as we post the deals at Beat of Hawaii. Get you calendar out since the bulk of Fall and Winter deals could come at any time.
The best value airfares only last a couple of days, and the most in demand dates are gone within a few hours. I suggest you subscribe to Beat of Hawaii using RSS, Twitter or Facebook, in order to find them in time.
The best deals last year were announced in October; I predict they’ll be sooner this year.
The airlines waited, hoping against hope that higher fares would be sustainable. Ultimately of course, they were not, and as a result we’ve seen unprecedented deals in airfares from all over the US, Canada, Australia and Europe.
This year the airlines are not deluded in their thinking. They know that this winter will likely be as bad as last year. Therefore, I expect that Fall/Winter fares will start to drop later this month and in September.
Last season’s top deals are a good predictor of what to expect.
Find your city to see what could be possible this season. We’ll compare notes next year and see how it all turned out.
The fares below are expired deals from the past year.
Chicago to Maui $419 roundtrip
Washington DC to Honolulu $421 roundtrip
Denver to Honolulu $111 each way
Roundtrip air plus hotel for two! $589 (all-inclusive)
Sacramento to Honolulu $350 roundtrip (including holidays)
Vancouver to Honolulu $225 roundtrip (all-inclusive)
London to Honolulu $397 roundtrip
San Francisco to Honolulu $250 roundtrip (all-inclusive)
Boston to Maui $367 roundtrip
LA or SF Air to Kauai plus Kauai Sheraton $400 total
Portland to Honolulu $258 roundtrip (all-inclusive)
San Francisco to Kauai $265 roundtrip (all-inclusive)
East Coast cities to Hawaii just over $300 roundtrip
Phoenix to Honolulu $117 each way
Newark or Atlanta to Honolulu $100 each way
Houston, Dallas, Minneapolis, Salt Lake City to Honolulu $100 each way
Cher (2 years ago)
Are there usually decent priced fares from the East Coast in the high season? My husband and I are newly married and planning our honeymoon for December 2009. I usually take vacation that time of year from work and over the Christmas break would give me the most time off to really see the islands and enjoy the trip.
Maui is our first stop most likely. We are in the Philadelphia area and I haven’t seen many deals from airports close by. Any tips? Thanks!
Jeff (2 years ago)
Hi Cher,
Christmas and New Years weeks are traditionally the highest price for both airfare and accommodation in Hawaii. Last year however we saw a scant few deals that worked during that time. Thus, while it is not out of the question, I would not expect it. If you came and went before mid December or after January 10, you might expect to pay less than half.
Hope that helps.
Jeff
Pua (2 years ago)
Much mahalo, Jeff, for making our Hawaii visitors from the Pacific Northwest aware of those special air fares from Seattle and Portland to the islands. I’ve checked on Hawaiian and found the special rates you mentioned Seattle – Honolulu and Seattle Maui for RT $298.
However, I noticed with Maui, that travelers might want to leave a little more time between now and their departing flights to Maui in September. As the direct flights to Maui leave only once a day, the planes get filled up fast and then Hawaiian asks more money for their seats, whether Wednesday or weekend flying, it does not matter.
Happy to see Alaskan joining with daily flights from Portland to Maui. Just started 8/7. More competition, better flight prices to the islands for our Hawaii visitors.
I will definitely share all this good travel info for fall to Hawaii with our ‘Best Hawaii Vacation’ Blog visitors.
Aloha, Pua
Andy (2 years ago)
My wife and I have booked a hotel (through a time share company) so our travel dates aren’t flexible, without increasing lodging expenses. We wish to travel on the the 16th of October, and return on the 23rd, and we will be departing from the Baltimore/Washington DC area. Are the prices expected to drop anytime in the next month, or remain constant? Which airline would you recommend?
Thank you for your help,
Andy
Jeff (2 years ago)
Hi Andy,
The best right now on your dates is about $700 on American or United. These are 7 day advance purchase fares so I’d definitely buy at least a week ahead. Better deals from BWI/IAD will be coming, but no one knows if it will be in your time frame. Yesterday’s Newark deal points to likely Washington deals, and I expect both cities will continue to have great deals through next Spring.
For future trips to Hawaii (I hope you’re a return visitor), I do not suggest booking though a time share or any form of inflexible hotel dates, at least until after booking your air. Good hotel deals are always available in this economy.
Aloha, Jeff
kg (2 years ago)
Jeff,
We are planning a trip in dec to celebrate our wedding anniversary. We would like to visit 2 islands- Maui n Big Island. We are located in San Diego. So right now, I see air fare around $666. Should we wait for more deals to come or is this the best price available? BTW, we are plannning to travel from dec 9 to dec 16. Any suggestions?
Jeff (2 years ago)
Hi KG,
Congrats on your upcoming celebration. San Diego is tricky for deals, with inadequate lift to incent airlines to bargain. Would you be willing to drive to LA to save a bunch of $? I’d says we’ll undoubtedly see deal $200 less from there within your time frame. Otherwise, I don’t think San Diego will go up, so I suggest waiting until say mid-November to see what materializes.
Hope that helps.
Aloha, Jeff
kg (2 years ago)
Jeff,
I can drive to LA if I get a better deal from there. If its only a saving of few dollars, probably I may not. But for $200 less, I may. Do you have any deal from LA?
Jeff (2 years ago)
No there are no deals from LA yet. But that’s where you’ll find them. Perhaps 90% of Hawaii deals will eminate from LA, 10% from San Diego.
kg (2 years ago)
hmm..I think I should better wait for the deals then. Even if they will be from LA. Thanks for your help, Jeff.
Marilynn (2 years ago)
Hi
Hoping for fare from SF
O or SMF to HNL the end of Oct that will be
decent. Any thoughts on this?
Marilynn
Jeff (2 years ago)
Hi Marilynn,
I think it is highly likely we’ll see Bay Area to Hawaii deals before the end of October.
Aloha, Jeff
kat (2 years ago)
Jeff, when is the summer “peak travel season” to Hawaii? When would be best time to book for next summer mid July?
Looking to go to Kona. Would it be wise to book the west coast leg of trip now and then wait for a fare sale to get to west coast from Minneapolis or Chicago? Seems the mainland portion of the trip is fairly expensive for 10 months out. Thanks.
Jeff (2 years ago)
Hi Kat,
Summer peak travel starts mid June, probably June 11, next year.
I anticipate next summer will be quite strong (at least compared with the past two years). Therefore, I don’t really expect to see deals for July.
When I look at separate fares from ORD to LAX plus LAX to KOA vs. fares from ORD to KOA for your dates, I don’t see much advantage of booking separate tickets. Over $300 to LAX and then about $700 from there to KOA. Or $950 ORD to KOA. What have you found?
While this is contrary to what I often suggest, my gut says to buy these tickets relatively soon (before year end).
Aloha, Jeff
andy burden (4 months ago)
Hey Jeff
Andy here
We are planning a trip to kauai June 23rd 2012 to July 8, i have been watching air fares most every day but there doesn’t seem to be any decline in prices yet, there will be six of us traveling. Do you think there will be any kind of sales, and if so when do you think they might start going down some. right now the are prices between 1100 and 1200 depending on where we fly out of, we live in a rural part of southern missouri, so we can use little rock st louis, memphis or kansas city.
Jeff (4 months ago)
Hi Andy.
If you have any flexibility in dates, I do see fares just under 1K from STL on the 25th. Otherwise, as you probably already know, you’ve picked one of the most expensive weeks of the year to come to Hawaii. The dates before and after July 4 are up there with Christmas travel in terms of cost. Summer fares tend to drop around August 10. I would not expect to see much if any drop in prices for your dates.
Aloha,
Jeff