Oct 13 2009
Fall Airfare Deals (Part Two)
On August 17, I shared my Fall airfare predictions (part one), indicating the hottest markets this year would be Pacific Northwest, California’s Bay Area, then Southern California, New York, and Chicago. Since then, good airfares have come (and gone) in four of these five markets, and the deals haven’t really even begun.
The airlines’ masters have us right where they want us.
No industry has studied yield management more or does it better than the airlines. As each day passes, however, airlines sell fewer seats to Hawaii while flexible date bargain hunters sit on the sidelines. Carriers are as desperate to remain in the Hawaii playing field with reasonable returns, and filled seats, as off-peak consumers are to find cheap fares.
It’s cat and mouse, and the airlines are pitted against each other as well as the buying public.
Put this Fall in perspective with last year.
We’re just one week behind where we stood on October 7, 2008, when we saw the first major West Coast to Hawaii deals begin. It was $347 RT (all-inclusive) from LA to Honolulu, which is about $160 below the best deal today. For the most part, however, the deals waited a few more weeks, until just before November 1.
Here’s what will likely happen next.
By the end of October (or perhaps early November), as with last year, expect to see sales from most major mainland cities to Hawaii. Sales will be on and off. That’s part of the game. Estimated prices (round trip all-inclusive) are likely to be comparable with what we saw last fall:
West Coast $250-$350
East cost and Mid-West $400-$500
Last year, some of these deals were only valid for travel through mid-December while others were good into Spring. Look for the same assortment of Fall only, and Fall through Spring deals this time. Some deals will likely work over Thanksgiving, although it isn’t likely that any will be valid over the Christmas and New Years weeks.
We’ll be geo-targeting deals for Facebook fans.
If you join us on Facebook, we intend to send these deals to you based specifically for your location (when we reach 1,000 Facebook fans).
Follow the deals on Twitter.
When you follow us on Twitter, as with Facebook, you’ll get the deals as quickly as we find them. In contrast, email subscribers only get the deals once a day, and even RSS subscribers can wait hours to receive the feed.
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Jeff,
I’m planning a trip for my family for next May (3rd or 4th week). I was thinking of flying to Oahu from either Phoenix or LA due to the cheap fares I can get to there from Allegiant Air (I live in SW Missouri). When do you think will be the best time to pull the trigger on purchasing tickets? I saw good deals into January/Feb this year for May airfare. Should I wait that long? Do you expect fares to be as low as last winter?
Thanks!
Geoff
Hi Geoff,
When the next fare breaks come (perhaps in 1-2 weeks), they might include dates through next Spring. If your dates aren’t included, they could be in subsequent deals at any point really.
I do think fares will be comparable with last year.
Aloha, jeff