May 27 2008
Yesterday’s Hawaii Air Deals Gone, But Our Theory Is Working
On April 25, I espoused my ideas for getting the best airfare deals to and from Hawaii. While others were predicting a defeatist “buy now strategy”, my philosophy was and continues to be:
“Wait, watch like a hawk and pounce like a cat.”
So far it’s been working great if you’re flexible with dates and act fast. In the last seven days we’ve reported incredible deals to Hawaii. Yesterday we took advantage ourselves and bought round trip tickets from Kauai to New York City for $270 (tax included).
Yesterday’s deals are as old as yesterday’s news: They’re gone.
Since last night, those fares we had just featured went up by 200-300%. If you failed to act, you’ll need to wait until the next round.
This season has become the wildest outrigger canoe ride ever in Hawaii travel history. Here’s a recap of what we’ve been talking about:
AAA started it off with their baffling estimate of Honolulu hotels and food averaging a whopping $792 per day.
In reality (especially after checking NYC hotels for our upcoming trip) we’re seeing Honolulu and Hawaii overall offering some of the best bargains ever this summer. I still believe that AAA was trying to sensationalize a story to keep us all on a road trip to Dubuque.
Superferry came from the bottom of the pile to be this summer’s best inter-island deal.
We even surprised ourselves when we announced that at $49 per person, through September 30, this is unequivocally the way to go between Oahu and Maui. This is another deal that is a loss leader and can’t last. So get it while it’s hot.
Go!’s parent company Mesa issued its second bankruptcy warning just last week.
We noted a plethora of problems at Mesa. As a result, the likelihood of their remaining in Hawaii is slim, despite the CEO’s assurances. He’s the one who recently denied the bankruptcy likelihood too.
Hawaiian Air’s huge price increases will result in most of us paying at least $74 plus tax each way between the islands.
They’ve also tacked on fuel surcharge upon fuel surcharge, and are pricing themselves right out of the trans-Pacific market. We’ve been loyal Hawaiian customers for years, and are choosing other carriers for the first time. This doesn’t bode well for them, and their only hope is short-term acquisition by one of the big players.
UA/HA’s new codeshare deal allows MileagePlus customers to earn and redeem frequent flyer miles on inter-island Hawaiian Airlines flights.
It is not reciprocal, however, and could be short-lived. The best buy using a MileagePlus award is still on Island Air. The Hawaiian Air award is 10,000 miles while the Island Air award is only 5,000 miles.
With jet fuel at over $4 a gallon, airline economics just isn’t workable.
We are about to see more bankruptcies. Those who make it must find a way to charge in relation to costs, whether it is by raising airfares or nickel and diming us to death, as in luggage fees. The other thing airlines are doing is trying to out wait each other, and see who can last longer.
Stay tuned for more details on this wild ride.
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Jeff, I had the same impression when I wrote my post about Hawaii Summer Vacation 2008 yesterday. I came across many hotel discounts, even 20 - 30% for June. But of course June can be slightly sluggish before the big summer travel starts.
Also Hawaii vacation rental owners are willing to make great discount offers. So no problem with finding a decent priced hotel or vacation rental. I am not so sure about air fares though.
The flight you got was for flying out of the islands and not coming in. I could never understand that there is a difference because you got to come back too, eventually. However, there is a big difference between flights into Hawaii or the other way around. Aloha, Pua
Hi Pua,
Thank you for your comment.
Just to clarify, the deal that we booked from Hawaii, was very much a mainland to Hawaii deal. It was bookable in either direction, although naturally, we posted it from the viewpoint of mainland visitors coming to Hawaii.
Aloha,
Jeff
Wild ride indeed, I got in on two trips one LAX-HNL for some family and the big kicker for me was from HNL to PIT for just over 200 all in. And you’re correct they were bookable both ways, which seems to be more and more common any more at least on the pacific side of things. (Mainland to Europe or Asia is a different story altogether though.)
Holy Gopher, Jeff, are those the airfare deals that were just announced over the weekend? Wow! I was getting ready to post a big announcement on one of my sites.
Glad I read your posts.
Gene (really slow Gene)
Hi Kalani and Gene,
Thanks for your comments.
We’re all just getting used to the new way of doing things. It couldn’t be more different than even last year. You’ll certainly have to agree that it is an interesting time.
Aloha,
Jeff
Any chance that a deal like this will land in Chicago? We’re really hoping to find a decent fare for our Sept. 08 Maui wedding.
Alicia,
Chicago deals are possible, but perhaps not as likely as those we saw in this week’s skirmish. They were based on airlines vying for one another’s hubs. I’ll keep a lookout for them too.
Aloha,
Jeff
Found your blog today and enjoyed reading. I was one that got in on the brief airfare reduction earlier this week for some family members.
My questino for you…I secured tickets to HNL previously using my FF miles. Our trip is planned to Maui however and I’ve been monitoring prices between the islands, hoping to see them go down. I take it from what you’ve written that you think if one could get them for less than $74 at this time, it might be best to go ahead and lock them in. Right?
Yes Al, I’d say that less than $74 is a good deal and probably worth locking in.
My only question is, when are you coming? If it is before the end of September, consider taking the Superferry instead. That’s the best deal.
Aloha,
Jeff
Hi Jeff… what do you think about airfare rates between now and September/October, based on what you’ve seen so far?
We’re planning a trip to Kauai from the Bay Area, CA and tx on HA right now are a wopping $900 each.
Any thoughts?
Thanks!
Hi Rachel,
I think there will definitely be more deals, though at this point they will probably be for travel the end of August and beyond.
The trick is that you’ll need to be monitoring it daily. They come and go so fast, that if you’re away from the computer for a day, they will be gone. That’s exactly what happened last week, when for 12 hours or so, it was possible to get tickets from California (albeit LA) to Kauai for under $300.
I’ll keep watching for deals and will post them.
Aloha,
Jeff