Hawaii travel for 2023 is off and running and likely to be stronger than expected. It comes following the latest data indicating visitor spending just eclipsed record-breaking 2019 results.
With data in for January through November 2022, visitors spent $17.4 billion here, which was +9% compared with 2019. That came even though the actual number of tourists was -11% at 9.4 million.
West coast visitors are spending 46% more.
Hawaii’s meat and potatoes visitors arrived in mass last month too, with 416k November visitors, up 11% compared with 2019. More significantly, they spent $564 million, up 46% in the nine average days visitors spend in Hawaii!
A significant slowdown in tourism is unlikely.
Over the past six months, some have worried about the visitor statistics in relation to a cooling economic environment and the lack of diversification in Hawaii. So the whipsaw question of too many or too few visitors continues. Our sense, however, is that significant slowing isn’t indicated.
As you recall, we said the Christmas and New Year holidays would be the next benchmark for 2023 Hawaii travel. Those numbers will take a few more weeks to come in, but we expect them to be very strong based on November data and what we see here on the ground. There had been concern voiced about the lack of typical far-in-advance holiday bookings.
While the neighbor islands primarily rely on strong domestic tourism, Honolulu especially continues to suffer from the long-awaited slow return of international arrivals. Japanese visitors are still down 90% from the average. The international problem won’t be helped by the upcoming plan to Covid test all Chinese visitors (and those traveling from China) before arrival. Lastly, another issue in Hawaii is the lack of group business and conference demand.
Hawaii remains all-in on travel.
Obviously, Hawaii didn’t take advantage of Covid-time to become more economically diversified. That is a frustration for many here in Hawaii. The state’s UHERO said the lack of diversity “Exposes Hawaii’s economy to external shocks that trigger collapses in tourist numbers.” Furthermore, Hawaii’s economic growth has diminished for decades as the dominance of tourism has not generated productivity growth.
Here are the issues that Hawaii visitors in 2023 will face.
- High Hawaii prices, taxes, and fees. Room rates and rental cars are up by 50% since before Covid, which isn’t entirely different than other US tourist destinations. We mentioned recently we are paying more for vehicles at LAX than in Hawaii. High accommodation rates are in addition to 18% room tax, plus fees of various types.
- US inflation plus looming recession. It isn’t clear how much of a recession there may be or how long it could last. It all depends on who you ask. Inflation seems to be stabilizing, but it is still a significant factor when it comes to vacation spending.
- High airfares. With the exception of those west coast markets still feeling the Southwest Effect, prices have increased significantly since before Covid.
- Service and staffing issues. Industry-wide, it is challenging to hire and retain travel industry employees, from ramp agents to housekeepers, waitpersons to front desk staff, and all the rest.
Are you coming to Hawaii in 2023?
We’d love to hear your plans.
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Wow fun Hawaii 🙂🙂🙂🙂
Thank you for information
thanks alot of information goodjobs….
Empty nesters who either invested well or are still working good paying jobs, women who travel with their girlfriends to share costs, time share owners and millennials who’ve are just now getting their footing.
Are the groups from the west coast traveling to Hawaii.
The women traveling together, because most guys are slugs, are the group that seems to be growing the most. In the last year my wife and 2 daughters made separate trips to Hawaii with their girlfriends.
We are looking forward to heading to Kauai the end of January for two weeks. Staying at our paid for timeshares. We’ve been coming regularly for over 20 years to all the islands but Kauai feels like home. Yes Hawaii is expensive but coming from California we don’t experience the sticker shock others do. A favorite saying of mine is “you don’t go to Hawaii to save money.”
Yep, we are headed to Kauai again in 2023 (as we have done annually since 2008). Rent the same condo with full a kitchen and a great view from the lanai. We have learned the good local spots within easy walking distance. Mostly, we just veg.
As one who has made at least one visit to either Kauai, Maui or Hawaii Island (sorry Oahu… I can go to LA a lot cheaper) for the past 30+ years, this year we are going to take a giant step back and seriously consider other islands. Yes, there are other islands w/beautiful beaches, palm trees, gentle breezes and they actually love to have people visit – imagine that! It’s obvious the entitled natives/locals, not to mention inept politicians, have lost touch with reality and worst of all, the true meaning of Aloha… perhaps Disney could make a new movie entitled ‘Pirates of the Pacific’ starring the CEO’s of Marriott, Hertz, United, etc., with ample opportunities for the natives/locals and politicians to have major supporting roles.
I like Beat of Hawaii but I think you all need to be a little more critical in your analysis. For example, you say “With data in for January through November 2022, visitors spent $17.4 billion here, which was +9% compared with 2019”. But according to any inflation calculator you find on the internet it takes $1.17 now to match the purchasing power of $1 from 2019. That’s 17% inflation since 2019. That means adjusted for inflation the amount of spending, in terms of wealth, is way down.
You also say that WC visitors are spending 46% more, but since most lodging has shot up at least that much in most areas, especially Maui, that 46% likely doesn’t translate to West Coasters buying more goods or services. They’re just paying more rent.
Yes! We are arriving this Saturday to Kauai and can’t wait!! Then the following Saturday we head to Maui where we have a timeshare and will meet up with our daughter, her husband, and their 4 kiddos! So we will be spending lots of money hahaha! Hoping and praying our flights don’t get diverted – that would be scary and especially bad for a family of 6 …. We re-did our car rentals about a week ago and the prices had dropped considerably from when we first reserved in early Fall (Costco). Thanks, BOH, for all the updates and work you do – so very helpful!
Hi Glenna.
Thanks! Best wishes for a great stay on Kauai and Maui. Excellent way to start the new year!
Aloha.
Yes, planning on 2 1/2 weeks to Kauai end of September/October to camp in Kalalau my third time and avoid the busier summer. All depends on if I am successful in getting a camping permit in June. Can’t book my flight until I have my camping permit, but staying at the Sheraton Poipu for five days before the hike, and have a condo in Princeville rented for a week after. Got my rental car reserved a couple months ago, and price already went down $80 so I rebooked and will keep watching. $2424 for an SUV for 17 days, six of which it will be sitting unused. Its over $10K for basically a camping trip before meals. Used to be able to pull that off for $3K 15 years ago.
You raised your prices to slow down tourism well it worked for me your prices are way too high. Hawaii only for the rich will find somewhere else to spend my money.
Okay, I guess I’m just a confused and obtuse mainlander. I keep hearing/reading about how it is still difficult to find ‘good help’ in HI these days. My question is: What are all the folks that used to work in the service industry, airports, etc. and are not working in those fields, actually working(?) at to sustain themselves??? If you don’t work, you don’t have an income (I think, or is there a form of welfare being provided??). HI is already the most expensive place in the lower 48, so how are they surviving? As the King once said, “Is a puzzlement!”
Dennis-brah, pretty entertaining! HI is actually Not in the “lower 48”!! AloooHa!
This is my opinion, just based on what I see and read in the news. Workers from the mainland aren’t here on Maui any more. We used to see so many employees in restaurants, BOH box stores, shops, everywhere, who were obviously from the mainland and we don’t see them now. Housing is scarce and costs have skyrocketed in the last couple of years, at least on Maui. It is impossible for a young person to move over and make ends meet, so it’s not happening. I think a lot of local people live with extended families and are still on Maui and seem to be working. There are help wanted signs everywhere.
Everyone has to be patient and take it easy. Happy New Year!
Aloha🌺. We are here now, on Oahu! We chose to celebrate the new year here and went to see The Green at the Blue Note. We also are seeing Hamilton at The Blaisdell this week before we leave.
We will be back in early Feb and staying on the Big Island to celebrate my birthday! We are Hilton Grand Vacation owners and we love to visit the islands. We lived here on Oahu in the early 90’s, my husband was stationed at Schofield Barracks. We have fond memories here and it feels like home ❤️
Yes, we are coming. Purchased time shares on Maui and Kauai 20 years ago and will be visiting Kauai for 2 weeks – no Maui this year as we prefer Kauai. Plans: 1) Rent car way in advance 2) Make entertainment reservations 3-6 months in advance 3) reserve condo a year in advance…..the key is advance planning. And plan on “going on Hawaii time”…. and slowing down!
Hi! I’ve heard about a drought on Maui where water has been shut off in West Maui (Lahaina/Kahana area specifically) until reservoir levels rise. There are potable water trailers in various locations as a water source. We are traveling to Maui the beginning of February and would love to know more about this, as I’m sure other travelers would as well. Thank you and Happy New Year!
Hi Tracy.
It seems like the issues you are talking about was from last summer. Things are looking up at least a bit in terms of drought, although it’s too early in the rainy season to know thoroughly.
Aloha.
The cost for a week in Hawaii has become difficult. I own an every other year timeshare in Maui and will continue to use that. We usually visit one of the other islands in the other year, but traveled to Cabo instead this year. We will probably continue trying other destinations in Mexico going forward. We truly love our time in Hawaii but things have gotten so weird since COVID.
Agreed, David! I adore Hawaii and am finally checking-off Molokai on 1/9/23.
Financially must check Mexican options, too. Then whenever I can afford to visit Asia, a Honolulu layover would break-up flights nicely.
¡Mucho mahalo, Beat of Hawaii, for informing my several trips these past four years!
Spending based statistics may be misleading. We’re annual snowbirds to Maui and noticed prices for just about everything have risen dramatically since 2019. That 9% increase in spending likely represents a reduction in visitors as prices have risen much more than 9%.
Yes, in February. Plans made Spring last year. But…….will probably be my last mid-winter visit. Have been coming to Maui since 2016.
Not coming!way to expensive taxes and charges
Aloha Beat of Hawaii!
We’re absolutely going to be going mainland more this year and having Ohana stay with us on Maui.
Losing precious times and people we can’t get back, we want to visit more often than pre Covid.
So many losses in 2022, no more wasted chances! Love and live more 2023!!
Mahalo Beat of Hawaii for your stellar work and we feel you’re a part of our Ohana now.
Stay safe and blessed 💕💕🌺🌺
Hi Pam.
Thanks. We feel the same way about you! 😘
Aloha.
My husband and I have been coming to Hawaii for at least 2 weeks to a month+ for the past 30 years. Almost 100 percent of the time in a condo This could possibly be my last year because Of a new condo rental law mandating a 90 day minimum stay in Waikiki And Diamondhead area. Not many people especially families can afford $50 to $60000+ rent. This law goes into effect April 23rd Of this year.