The landscape of fast-rising Hawaii airfares is upon us. Flights to Hawaii have been on a steep incline recently, a trend that all travelers bound for the islands have likely noticed. But based on what we’ve just heard from United Airlines, we may not have heard anything yet.
The frequency and depth of airfare deals has clearly plummeted, and when sales do appear, they’re from fewer gateways and for shorter duration. Prices, once attractively low, are now significantly higher compared to even a year ago, exacerbating the stratospheric costs of Hawaii accommodations and other expenses.
Hawaii hotels and airlines are one unified front on strategic pricing.
Airlines are joining Hawaii hotels in their ability to extract more revenue from fewer visitors. That translates to once plentiful cheap flights to Hawaii being much harder to find now. Technologically advanced dynamic pricing too has become the norm for everything from ticket to premium seat costs, making the first price you see subject to change depending on demand.
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Mastered the art of dynamic pricing.
Airlines flying to Hawaii have for years been honing dynamic pricing strategies to perfection, leveraging advanced algorithms to maximize revenue and avoid competitive prices. These strategies consider a myriad of factors such as historical booking data, current demand, and customer preferences, adjusting prices in real-time. This often results in significant price fluctuations within short periods, as you have noted, making it more challenging for Hawaii travelers to ever snag a good deal. But there are ways to fight back.
Are there tips for still finding affordable Hawaii airfares?
Despite the rising prices, there are still strategies we use to help find affordable flights to Hawaii:
1. Flexibility above all else.
Being flexible with your travel dates can lead to the most significant savings. It’s actually the place we look first, using Google Flights. Start with a period of time, for example the month of August, and then see what the price range is for your possible routes on a month-long calendar, before zooming in on specific flight details. That in itself can save hundreds of dollars. For example, shifting your departure or return by just a day is all it may take to lower Hawaii airfare dramatically.
2. Use flight price notifications.
Tools like Google Flights alerts can also notify you when prices drop for any of your desired routes. This can be more effective than traditional methods like clearing cookies or using a VPN, strategies that no longer work in an evolving technological wold. Monitor prices through alerts over a period of time as soon as you start Hawaii travel planning. It can help reveal the best times to book.
3. Should you book Hawaii airfare first once again? How and why.
Given the high cost of accommodations, the theory shifted after Covid to booking accommodation first instead of airfare. But with rapidly airlines tightening prices to their benefit, it’s often advisable to book your flights first once again.
24-Hour Cancellation: Your Best Friend, the Airlines’ Foe
The way we suggest is to use the 24-hour free cancellation window available on all airlines to secure flights first. Then we look to find suitable accommodations. If acceptable Hawaii accommodations or car rentals aren’t available within budget, we simply cancel the flight without penalty and start again. Cancellation is possible to do easily online with all airlines, except Hawaiian, which still requires a phone call to their off-shore call center. Even then, it isn’t hard.
Industry challenges and adjustments to turn profits.
The airline industry is still grappling with numerous challenges, from aircraft delivery delays to hugely increased operating costs. At a recent JP Morgan conference, executives from major airlines like Alaska, Delta, Southwest, and United expressed concerns over the delays in receiving new planes. For instance, Southwest expects a 42% reduction in airplane deliveries this year.
United’s plan foretells Hawaii travel industry moves.
United Airlines’ just announced strategic outlook provides a glimpse into the industry’s future. CEO Scott Kirby said they will soon reduce capacity to better align with passenger demand.
Capacity optimization is the new buzzword for higher priced Hawaii flights.
This strategy of optimizing capacity for maximum profit is set to eliminate unprofitable flights across the industry and moderate Hawaii flight capacity, leading to a natural increase in airfares. Following airlines’ aggressive expansion post-COVID, the industry faces excess capacity, that have still resulting in lower airfares than deemed desirable. However, United foretells an industry-wide shift to trimming schedules to match demand, largely preventing unprofitable operations and increasing ticket prices.
Add to that, less and more uncomfortable economy, plus more premium and business class.
With the increasing focus on premium seating to Hawaii, airlines like Alaska, Southwest, JetBlue, and United are also reducing economy class options on Hawaii flights. This shift is driven by the same higher revenue potential in this case associated with premium and business class seats. For instance, Alaska Airlines is prioritizing more first-class and premium seats, while Hawaii hopeful JetBlue is significantly reducing legroom in economy to prioritize premium cabins. This trend highlights the industry’s other strategies set to enhance profitability, despite the adverse effects on economy travelers. Industry analysts have already given a thumbs up to Alaska’s move, raising their stock rating this week as a result.
Similar to Hawaii hotels selling fewer rooms at higher prices.
This upcoming capacity adjustment that will impact all airline flights to Hawaii is projected to create a more favorable supply-demand environment, setting the stage for much higher prices starting later in 2024 and into 2025.
Implications for Hawaii Travel.
As airlines work towards restoring their pricing power, they are going to continue reducing Hawaii flights until profitability targets are met.
While Hawaii airfares are indeed in a take-off mode, understanding the dynamics at play and employing strategic planning can still help Hawaii visitors and residents better manage costs. By staying flexible, using flight alerts, and booking strategically, it’s still possible to enjoy the beautiful islands without so severely breaking the bank.
As this evolves, we aim to provide you with the latest insights and strategies to enhance your Hawaii travel experiences. Stay tuned and happy Hawaii travels. Aloha!
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Hi…so sad about airfare. I managed to snag a great deal for early December and our usual condo. This might be our last trip. We’ve been coming there for 35 years.
There are so many other beautiful locations and most are now considerably less expensive. I hope the Hawaiians will be ok with so much less tourism! I’ll keep hoping!
Air fares are not the problem, the cost of hotel rooms are.
Airfares haven’t changed much over the 15 years we’ve traveled to Hawaii, sometimes you can get a deal, sometimes not. The cost of rooms have doubled at least, if not more. Haven’t been to Hawaii since before the pandemic and unfortunately probably won’t be back.
Won’t they hit a ceiling where people can’t afford to pay what they’re asking? People will do something else for their vacation instead, leaving vacant rooms and unsold seats. Perhaps that’s just the natural cycle coming full circle?
Oh great, now the airlines and hotels can su up all the travelers money leaving nothing for us small business owners. I wish our representatives woke up to this.
The acquisition of HA by AS is done deal. Announcement forthcoming within the next two weeks.
As AS ponders the fate of the rest of the newly in-coming HA 787’s, AS has already made internal initial decisions about those widebody aircraft – including the introduction of a premium class cabin located directly behind business class.
Long-haul business class seats, more legroom seats in coach (AS refers to this as “premium seats”) as well as standard coach seating will continue.
Hopefully, the current HA pilots and flight attendants are not “stapled” to the bottom of the AS seniority lists. The unions will have to figure that out themselves.
If by some odd circumstance that the merger is denied – my belief is that HA is done as a stand-alone airline.
Tired of playing the game! We are now enjoying driving vacations on the mainland USA.
Resort Fee and Parking Fee Ugh!!!
Mahalo for the updates. Have you ever seen – Live like a Hawaiian by A. Perez Voyages? What a fantastic documentary on life and customs and culture in Hawaii. I recommend every person travelling to Hawaii to watch this. Beautiful photography and all of the island are in it. If airfare keeps going up, people can just watch this. Aloha
“Airlines are joining Hawaii hotels in their ability to extract more revenue from fewer visitors.”
There are those from whom the extraction is more manageable, less painful than for others. Perhaps new packages with less desirable flights and accomodations will be an alternative. A first class versus an economy Hawiian experience may acquire new meaning.
I still pay the same low one way fare with American Airlines from Washington, DC on September 11 ($211). I am still in Maui though and flights to DC are in the low $300’s. I have a friend arriving from DC on Saturday and will ask her what she paid…30 years ago, we paid around $1,000 RT, 15 years ago it was around $900RT, 10 years ago $800 and fares have been going down since then ….similar situation when we made a one night stop in San Fransisco ….Hawaii was not cheap 30 years ago, but locals and tourists were getting along …
And what happens if the Alaska/Hawaiian merger goes through? Or not? Booking early is always cheaper I’ve found. Like six months out. Being retired helps take advantage of cheaper fares on certain days of the week. As I travel to Maui about once a quarter, I’m constantly checking fares. Sounds like our intrepid editors are of a similar vein…
Keep it up and see where it gets you.
Interesting article. Lots of good suggestions. I believe this subject is quite cyclical and squeezing customers usually attracts new entrants to the market who identify opportunities and take share. So it’s definitely not static or forever. The more the established operators squeeze, the more opportunities pop up.