Hawaii visitor arrivals and spending have been on the decline for the past two consecutive months when compared to 2022. That’s bad news for Hawaii but may be good news for visitors looking ahead at the holiday season or wanting less crowded beaches. We’ll share our analysis of the findings with you that were released today from the Department of Business, Economic Development, and Tourism (DBEDT)
According to Hawaii Tourism, “both visitor arrivals and visitor spending decreased for the second consecutive month compared to 2022.” The state says it is as Hawaii’s tourism continuing to be impacted by “the aftermath of the August Lahaina fires. That is true to a significant degree but may not fully explain the data.
The Christmas and New Year holiday period may be less robust than in prior years.
Typical seasonal airfares are a measure we’ve used for years to look at visitor demand. Flying to Hawaii from the West Coast has, for many years, cost $700+ round-trip during the December holiday season. In checking this morning, however, we found from both Southern and Northern California, many surprisingly cheaper airfares.
Examples of lower Hawaii airfare for the holidays.
Looking at west coast departures to Maui, the lowest fares we found today are starting from about $450 RT, from all-important Northern and Southern California gateways. Flights to Kona are at or near typical $700 rates from Northern California and up to $200 less than normal from Southern CA. Honolulu airfares, by comparison, are also starting at from $100-$200 less than normal for high-season rates from both Southern California and Northern California. It’s also interesting to note that virtually all Kauai airfares are at or above normal holiday season prices.
In terms of the numbers the state just reported, 651K visitors came to Hawaii in September, which is a decrease of 7% from the prior year and down 12% compared with 2019. Visitor spending of $1.4 billion was down 9.6% compared with 2022. But still up 10.2% compared with 2019.
So the net effect is that 12% fewer visitors are spending 10% more than pre-Covid. That is largely a function of the sky-high costs that visitors incur, starting with Hawaii hotels and other expenses. The length of time that visitors spend in Hawaii remains mostly unchanged, at just under 9 days.
Airline seats to Hawaii are still somewhat down.
Last month, 4,374 flights arrived in Hawaii, with 964,132 seats. Flights are down about 3% compared with both 2019 and 2022, and seats are about on par with 2022 but down 5% compared with September 2019.
Impact of Maui fires.
Maui took the brunt of Hawaii’s tourism shortfall. The state said, “The impacts from the Maui wildfires were significant in September 2023 with “Both visitor arrivals and visitor expenditures down by more than 50 percent for Maui for the month compared to 2022. Visitor arrivals on Maui in September 2023 (94,221) recorded the lowest since February 2021 and visitor spending of $203.2 million on Maui in September 2023 was the lowest since March 2021.”
Hawaii remains in a tourism slump for a myriad of reasons.
The fire undoubtedly had a huge impact as seen in the worst Maui showings since the Covid shutdown. But it goes beyond that. Hawaii continues to suffer from very high visitor costs. Also, tourists read in social media about not being wanted. Add to that the lack of appropriate, high-quality tourism infrastructure, and a widespread shortage of employees, among other things, as some of the top reasons that some travelers are thinking of or choosing other destinations. And we’ve definitely seen far more comments specifically to that effect recently than ever before. There may also be a waning of travel interest or available travel money, although that certainly wasn’t apparent elsewhere in our travels from May until October.
Where are travelers going instead?
They are heading to Mexico, the Caribbean, and other tropical destinations that are still near the US mainland and are attainable at lower cost. At the same time, there’s a stronger than ever demand for international travel by Americans who are flocking to Europe and elsewhere. We witnessed that clearly this summer. Destinations including London, Switzerland, Spain and France were clearly overwhelmed, largely by American holiday-seekers.
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I am trying to find a reasonable round trip from Austin, Tx to Hawaii from March 9-16. I would like to fly business class at least but the flights are almost double what we paid in early 2020. Is it better to wait until December-January to get the lowest price or what do you recommend?
We went to Oahu in May for 17 days. It’s difficult with the exchange rate because we are Canadian. But that did. It deter us. What does deter us is the ridiculous cost of hotels in Waikiki and mostly with the resort fees and taxes added which increased the room rate by $100 per night. I don’t understand the greedy way of thinking behind these hotels. I just don’t understand how they think this is fair.
Brenda. This greed is world-wide. But, for me who loves the Hawaiian islands more than anything I know, it irks me the most. Yes, we all know everything costs more on islands. But it is beyond this. So, I certainly hear you. And afraid it is life now, sad sad way of life. I keep thinking that if I win the lottery, would take a random person like yourself, and enjoy paradise free of charge. Its just not fair to us!
2)We typically shy away from black rock beach as it is one of the most popular beaches on the west side. We were able to snorkel black rock and there was maybe 10 people in the water. Sea life overall has picked up, since the down turn in tourist. The golf courses looked busy from what we saw. We were also at a resort that is housing deplaced families from Lahaina. They was mutual respect and we had no issues of feeling unwanted. Only half the pools were open at the resort but plenty of room for all and the restaurant was open. Airport seemed crowded but not overly. Rental car prices are down on Maui as we got a mid size SUV for $250/week. If you have a chance go to Maui before it gets back to normal. Good opportunity to support Maui.
1) I just got back from North Kaanapali which of course is on the west side of Maui. We have a place there and wanted to see how things were since we are having guests arrive in November. Almost all of the grocery stores were open except for Foodland Farms. Safeway and Times Market were open. Almost all of the non-Lahaina restaurants were open except for Monkeypod in Whalers Village which is opened yesterday I believe. I would say about 75% of the stores in Whalers were open. We went to Black Rock Beach (Sheraton) and there were no crowds at all. Sheraton is not open as they are housing FEMA, National Guard and other response units as well as Sheraton workers. The ocean bar is open, so if you go try and support them.
The way the US $$$$ is a lot Canadians are looking else where to winter was a regular from 2002-2020 but now looking to go to Cuba because of the price and value hope to get back when the US $$$ comes down Aloha
We used to go to Oahu if not once a year, at minimum every other year, pre-pandemic. But now, Hawaii is (much) lower on my list because the cost has skyrocketed to a point that it competes against other vacation destinations. What I used to pay for a month on the offseason in Oahu, now represents maybe 14 – 20 days today….at a lessor venue than what we booked before. Pay more, get less. Plus, who wants to deal with all the airport drama. Car rentals are crazy expensive. Some of my senior friends now take the bus, and rent a car only a day at a time. But that’s not me. Hey, they got a Zippy’s in Las Vegas now, maybe that’s where I will get my chili rice fix…but I sure miss Rainbow’s tater tot chili!
Spending is up despite the number of visitors if you look just at the golf courses, they are taking advantage of the situation.
The high season started on Dec 15 in previous years, I’ve been informed the “new” high season is starting Nov 1.
That is ripping us off we came here at the request of the Maui people to please come and support the residents who depend on tourism.
Aloha I will be returning to Kauai at the end of November for 2 wks. I stay with my girlfriend who lives there and am looking to see how different it will be price wise for groceries, gas etc. It will be most interesting to see the morale in my opinion. I will enjoy myself like I always have in just being in a place I love. Best to you both and everyone out there. Warm regards.
Hi Debra.
Please let us know how your time goes on Kauai. Happy travels!
Aloha.
We just got back from the vacation from hell to Oahu. I love Hawaii but don’t know if we will be back. While not as affected by the soaring lodging costs as we have access to military lodging when we can get. My issue is the airlines. I have used Delta for many years, however they totally hosed us on this trip. We were supposed to leave on Friday and they didn’t get us out until Sunday. And that’s on top of flights doubling in cost since my last trip 18 months before. You couldn’t proof it to me that the numbers are down because every flight was packed. And while most people showed the same Aloha they always do I did indeed encounter some with attitudes. Why spend the money for poor services all the way around?
@Starla… your airfare has doubled? Are you locked into going at a certain time? Seems like we have seen a ton of cheap prices over the last several months. Flexibility is the key to going over there cheaply.
Hi Patrick.
Well said. Thanks.
Aloha.
Agree with others who commented that sky high hotel accommodations, high resort fees (and they won’t even clean your hotel room every day!), outrageous food costs are all playing a role in discouraging tourists.
With that said, I was just in Waikiki in early October and you could not tell that the tourist numbers were down. My hotel was booked, lines at restaurants, Duty Free mall is open again, all of the ABC stores are opened. Certainly more tourist than last October when I visited last.
I totally agree concerning tourist issues. My wife and I have traveled to Hawaii nearly a dozen times together. Our boys first learned to surf on Kauai and I have dreamed of taking my granchildren in a couple of years.
We have such fond memories of local craft fairs, farmers markets, as well as being part of a local family Luau, unexpectedly meeting up with Larry Rivera (RIP) and reminiscing over our first encounter 35 years earlier at the Coco Palms Resort (RIP), but when we were looking to return this year after a two year hiatus, I was shocked at the price increase… especially lodging. The house we usually rent was more than twice the price from 2021. We wound up booking a trip to London for less money. Maybe one day…
We’re part timers (5 months) on South Island of Maui. Airfares are definitely up. We stay in our condominium, so we’re not affected by soaring lodging room rates (and fees). We are however heavily affected by increases in insurance rates, water rates, labor shortage rates, and for certain – increased property taxes to make up for $25 million + decreases in sales and tourism taxes (lodging; car rentals; airport gate fees). The worst however are food costs: restaurants, small markets, and grocery stores (including grocery sections of Target, Wal-Mart, and Costco. It’s got have a great impact on locals. Some will likely have to move to the mainland – making things tougher for all employers. Sigh.
Just got back from France. It was an amazing experience. France over 80 million tourists a year and and loves every minute of the experience. The World Rugby Championship was held during our stay, and it was difficult to move around the country. It was amazing how well we were treated by well trained staff. They take service to a higher standard. The USA has a lot to learn. I’m in Hawaii now and so far no one has gone out of their way to make us feel special.
The other thing is, I’m not sure how safe it is in Hawaii. The government did a terrible job of protecting the public. They collect the money and and then don’t provide any protection from disasters when they happen. Has anyone thought of mandating generators for gas stations?
We also just returned from a trip to France. The service and the French people were full of aloha. We have a timeshare on Kaua’i but now we are going to fly to Europe more often.
Aloha BOH,
Several reasons why less are traveling to Hawaii and the Holiday numbers will also be down. Sky High Hotel/Resort fees and the consumer has spent their pandemic savings. Also savings rates continue to decline compared to Inflation. Good Article here:
investopedia.com/consumer-spending-is-burning-through-savings-as-paychecks-fail-to-keep-up-8383591
I agree…cost of accommodations & car rentals have doubled and the average folks won’t or can’t continue to pay these high costs! Vacationing in Hawaii pre-pandemic was very affordable. But that’s no longer the case….vacationing in Hawaii is now ultra-expensive!!!
Remember when they said they wanted the wealthy visitors? Now those are the only visitors who can afford to visit.
The cost of so many things are so expensive a number of my friends say they will not be going to Hawaii anymore and will be going to Mexico instead
No plans to return to Hawaii in the near future. Have traveled there since 1992.It has nothing to do with Maui’s tragedy. I feel that the ones quite vocal about not wanting visitors are not the majority but it has instilled an undercurrent. Add to that all of the add on fees for lodging, beach and park fees and having to have advanced reservations for travel or access to some sites and areas. It makes traveling much too difficult. My island travel will be to the Caribbean. Am looking forward to learning their history and cultural practices.
Aruba is the best. !
We were nervous about returning after the fires, but followed through on 10-day Kaanapali trip under host threat of losing our money. Quick takes: Airport was quiet. Unlike Kihei which was busy, West Maui was even more subdued (and sad) than our 2021 Covid trip. Lahaina Safeway open, but eerily quiet (no check-out lines). Popular restaurants and stores feeling their way through openings and staff upheaval. Golf courses busy – even hosting a college tournament. But the resilience of the locals we met filled us with resurgent energy which we channeled into volunteering at a shelter. (It’s easy to get involved .) West Maui is wrestling with their future. This may not be the “pleasure” vacation you expect – but it might be better.
With the high costs of the hotels, is Hawaii no longer interested in attracting the Gen Z or Millennial crowd? They simply cannot afford the overblown costs. Is there another strategy to attract these age groups?
Last year I was at Kannapali KBH hotel the rates were ridiculous for the two weeks with all the resort fees and room rates were out of site , car rentals nuts, restaurants were out of site. At that time we said we would never return because the island has become greedy. This had nothing to do with the fire. Plane flights were out of site also. I can’t blame people who
Write on this post who complain about the hosing they get from all the businesses I have mentioned. The residents of Maui who will suffer.
After traveling to Hawaii for over 30+ years, I am now down to one last trip whenever my best friend’s Celebration of Life is held. After that, all bets are off and yes, I have traveled to a lot of other places closer to the US but usually on a cruise ship so the costs are not the only factor to pausing trips to Hawaii. Way too many individuals, frequently those with no connection whatsoever to tourism, have expressed in no uncertain terms that we are still not welcome. I have found that my $’s spend just as easily in many other places other than Hawaii.
Don K
Thats sad to hear! I know our business on the big island is suffering from these attitudes and perceptions, we would welcome you with open arms!
You’re leaving out a simple term, inflation!
Honestly that looks exactly like what Hawaii wants: fewer people spending more money. I don’t have a trip scheduled for the next two years to Hawaii. Just got back from Europe and Alaska this year, going to Mexico next year and maybe the Great Lakes. Year after that I have a cruise scheduled but that’s all so far.
KP if you do travel to the Great Lakes next year and have the chance to take in Presque Isle State Park on Lake Erie in Erie Pa. You won’t regret it. People are warm and friendly. The sunsets are as spectacular as HI ( minus the palm trees) Wonderful biking and hiking trails and all free of charge
We are headed to the Caribbean for the Holiday Season. . Until hotel prices come down in Maui, we will be going elsewhere. Even a 10 day Viking River Cruise in Europe this past Spring was cheaper than a hotel in Maui for 10 days. 4 years ago we paid 350.00 a night in Maui. Now they want almost 700.00 a night. There are so many other places to go and I think most people are seeing that.
In hopes of Hawaii accommodation providers reading your very good blog, I’ll restate the obvious. Accommodation prices are way too high and there are too many fees on each night’s stay. That is the problem plain and simple.
I do not believe it’s the Lahaina fires and airfare to Hawaii has always been strangely affordable and continues to be.