US visitor arrivals this summer and spending are impossible to predict for the reasons we will tell you today. And that is crushing tourism plans with much uncertainty about how the summer in Hawaii will pan out. This could lead to opportunities for some incredible deals across the board. As editor Jeff said last month, “We see significant softening in demand ahead this summer, which could bring hotel and rental car prices back down while airfares waver or continues to rise.”
The lack of forward bookings raises alarm across all sectors.
The softness in Hawaii travel bookings, aka better deals ahead, started to rear its head as far back as December 2022 when there was an unexpected lack of visitor performance during a time of year that should have been outperforming.
Hawaii visitors slam brakes on forward bookings. Does that mean that they won’t be coming?
Actually, no one knows what this trend means for now, but the peak of summer travel is just three weeks away, which should be a high-demand, high-spending period second only to the holidays. These trips would typically have been booked up to a year in advance. But not this year.
The lack of predictability in visitor behavior is seen across all sectors, from airlines to accommodations and car rentals.
Summer in Hawaii: boom or bust?
There are still hopes that Hawaii travel will recover with extensive last-minute bookings. We recently said, “Word on the street in Hawaii is that advance bookings for traditionally stellar July are currently off by up to one-third.” And that continues to be the case.
We are also receiving offers for discounted booking of Hawaii hotels and vacation rentals for summer, which properties didn’t anticipate needing to do.
Hawaii visitors head to Europe instead!
Two Beat of Hawaii editors were in Europe earlier this month. They report that the crowding there is unprecedented. And when returning there later this summer, they find virtually sold-out conditions at many places on the continent. While in London, the number of American tourists was simply nuts! Italy’s biggest bank said last week, “Today in Italy, we have this boom in terms of tourism that is unbelievable.” Earlier this year Italy reported that foreign tourism was running more than 70% higher than in 2022. The same trend is true in Spain, Portugal and other European countries.
Hawaii was more easily accessible after Covid than other places in the world. Now that’s shifted.
And we’ll add this. The cost of travel to Europe is no more, and in many cases is less, than travel to Hawaii. While airlines, car Hawaii car rentals, Hawaii vacation rentals, and Hawaii hotels all had the notion that no amount was too high, we’d suggest they judged that incorrectly.
With the cost of a Hawaii vacation for the first time eclipsing that of a European vacation, Hawaii may find a shift in pricing is in order. We’ll see how that pans out.
The state confirms what we said previously about changes in visitor behavior.
DBEDT (Department of Business, Economic Development, and Tourism) confirmed last week what we suggested last month. That is, that a reversal in travel booking order has hurt Hawaii’s numbers. BOH said:
“In the past, visitors booked their Hawaii airfare first. But that’s no longer the case. Instead, Hawaii-bound travelers are getting their first dose of sticker shock when looking at Hawaii accommodations and Hawaii car rentals. Perhaps at that point, the world atlas emerges, and other options become more attractive. Airlines don’t even have a chance to sell their overpriced wares. And as we said the other day, the airfares are, for the most part, also ridiculously overpriced to Hawaii. Your editors are finding the cost of airfare to get out of Hawaii this summer so expensive that we are just saying what our commenters have called a hard no. For those seeking tropical destinations like Hawaii, there are many other options globally, including arguably less costly, nearby Mexico and the Caribbean.”
HVCB confirmed last week that “A recent trend toward travelers booking rental cars and hotel rooms before airlines also has made it harder for airlines to forecast traveler demand.” While state tourism (DEBDT) said that looking forward, there is a “softening in the U.S. West and U.S. East.”
In addition, the unending and still in part disputed Hawaii marketing mess has also hamstrung Hawaii’s ability to compete globally for visitors. As a result of that and other factors, in the latest monthly report on hotel occupancy, only 74% of available rooms were occupied in April. According to the latest findings, that comes even though visitor satisfaction measured by the state is running at nearly 90% for U.S. visitors.
And lastly, international travel to Hawaii hasn’t recovered significantly; when that will occur is anyone’s guess.
Hawaii tries to answer these questions:
1. How much more revenge travel to is left in people?
BOH: Based on what we are witnessing globally, we’d say a lot. But how much is left specifically for Hawaii travel? We’d say far, far less.
2. Will Hawaii need to rethink visitor costs, taxes, and fees to remain attractive?
BOH: Definitely. The perception that Hawaii is now only for the elite high-spender needs to shift. That’s true since hotel rates, airfares, and car rentals are up 50% or, in many cases, much more in the past couple of years, plus the 18% accommodation taxes and countless fees that sting visitors sorely.
3. To what degree are U.S. economic concerns weighing on Hawaii travel?
BOH: Based on what we just saw in Europe, we have to say that isn’t a primary issue.
What is your best strategy for planning Hawaii travel?
Wait it out. Here’s why:
BOH: The current environment speaks to the benefits of last-minute bookings as yielding the best results. You can be sure that this isn’t what airlines, hotels, and car rentals want us to say. But that is clearly the situation at hand. Case in point. One of us wanted to go between Phoenix and Kauai in August. The cost before was running about $1,000 round trip for nonstop. But as of today, it is just $300. On the other hand, this approach can also backfire if you wait too long. Those with more flexible travel plans will benefit most.
We welcome your comments!
Get Breaking Hawaii Travel News
We have been to Maui from Canada many times and the reasons we chose Hawaii are disappearing fast. It was once worth the investment but outrageous prices/taxes send a strong message. Most discouraging is that the Aloha is gone. On our most recent trip our friends were yelled at to go home more than once, we were greeted with signs like, spectators not welcome, do not go to this place or that place and told to leave our favourite swimming spot by locals (parked respectfully and legally). If the goal was to stop tourism, it Worked on us! And that was before all the recent ideas to curb travel Enthusiasm! Preserving nature and respecting people who live here is a given, we miss the Aloha that brought us back every year.
Great information. Thanks
With all the negativity coming from the people living there and the new restriction on were people can go and wanting to add a fee for everything on visitors why would you want to go there! Don’t get me wrong I love Hawaii!!! But I may look at other islands to go too for my next vacation!!!
Over the past couple of years, all we’ve heard from Hawaii, is raising prices, restricting access to many of the most popular places, and that the locals don’t want us there. While some places have been slower to open after Covid-19, they are now offering great prices and seemingly really want average people’s business. Hawaii has abandoned those people with limited incomes, who have been repeat visitors for decades
I know that in Maui…this has been the stated goal from the last Mayor. He wanted fewer visitors paying more. The attitude here in Hawaii seems to be …keep adding fees and taxes to tourists. Now we reap the rewards.
Be careful about what you wish for.
A catch 22 all the way around. Locals not happy, tourist not happy! How do you keep everyone happy when there is only so little of Hawaii to go around? Hawaii is a celebrity that wanted to make it big, then can’t handle the fame!
Sorry to say this but Europe does not have homeless people pushing shopping carts down the beach nor resort fees at hotels.
All that talk about overtourism in Hawaii is no doubt having an effect on the tourists deciding whether they want to go to Hawaii. The bickering between the warring parties trying to take control of the HTA isn’t helping either.
Mainlanders were a captive audience for the last couple of years, but now that Asia and Europe are open, people are looking to go back there, especially while the dollar is strong. Maybe if Hawaii misses us, they’ll get their act together on deciding whether tourists are good or bad for Hawaii.
Sorry, will try this again. That’s what happens you try speaking into your phone.
To repeat, the greedflation that affected all sectors of the economy, but even more so in Hawaii, has finally come home to roost.
The locals complained that there were too many tourists, and it was affecting everything from traffic to the ecology, didn’t want to risk coming, the state, and its infinite wisdom only wanted tourist willing to spend the big bucks. We have been coming to Hawaii, every year since 2012, sometimes twice a year, I look back on our old bills and find out in the last five years condo rates where we normally stay have tripled. This is simple greed, not inflation. The old saying remains true, be careful what you wish for you may get it.
I would challenge your assumption on 100% greed. Much of the rising rates are a result of the extraordinary cost for a Vacation rental. As an investment these units have doubled in price in just 1 or 2 years. Its tough to make the investment numbers work today.
Yes, not to mention the rising costs of cleaners and handymen, rising cost of utilities, and the government raising the property tax rate on vacation rentals to be more than any other classification except timeshares. In Maui, vacation rentals pay more taxes than hotels now.
And even with all that, in Maui vacation rental condos are still half the price of hotels.
That sounds like a great deal. So the average Joe with a rental regardless of whether they live there or not doesn’t mean you’re rich but yet you still pay more than a corporate Enterprise that is probably housing hundreds of more tourists than a average condo owner and they’re getting twice the money for each room they rent/condo. The government there definitely seems to have their priorities and they’re hidden agenda. I look at the amount of time it takes for them to update a beach park such as Hapuna on the big island and how much money they spend to do it. So much red tape and bad governmental processes
C’mon folks! Yes, Hawaii has other assets like oceanography and volcanology, but face it:
Tourism is the number 1 product Hawaii has to sell! And we should be proud of it!
From our mountains to the ocean it is a pleasure to share with family and visitors and I, for one, never considered it “slavery” working anywhere that supports our tourism trade.
And the Airbnb restrictions took a major bite out of tourism.
The rentals were in the neighborhoods and disrupting the peace and quiet. Although, by instilling restrictions on rentals, hotels are doing a booming business. Again, Hawaii is Not Disneyland. Tourists should learn a bit of Hawaii’s history.
I’m glad you enjoyed working in hospitality. However, the workers are at the bottom of the pay range. How are they supposed make a living?
You keep saying Hawaii is not Disneyland. As I pointed out in another post in which you said that recently, all the flame-throwers, hula dancers, announcers blaring through their speakers and all of the fake luaus are Promoting and Advancing a Disneyland environment. The people doing the exploiting, many of whom are natives, need to stop if they don’t want Hawaii to be treated like Disneyland. Don’t blame the tourists.
I’ve been following the comments about prices and lack of Airbnb rentals. Coming from a beach town in Florida in our neighborhood they had to change Airbnb rules. The short term rentals were very disruptive big parties trespassing garbage not cleaned up. I can understand both sides of these comments. Hawaii was my favorite place but as I stated earlier I’m not paying 19
Dollars to park at a beach
Been going to the big island since 2013. Always stay in VRBO condos and rented from the same people. Their rates have almost doubled nightly stay price and no longer offer a down season rate. They’ve told me there is no down season anymore. We have been priced out of their condos and struggle to find decent places to stay. The second biggest challenge is with rental cars. Paid $1,100 for 16-day Jeep Rental in 2021 1900 this year and 2600 for next year through Costco which I think is the cheapest. Airline tickets have bumped a bit but it’s amazing that gas/food this year was not much worse than where I live in the NW. Seems rental cars/condo prices are killing the visit to the Big Island where a rental car is needed to experience the island
This year we got 2 weeks for $600 Budget via Discount Cars Hawaii. They are often cheaper than Costco and have been in past years too. I check prices often, because they change and usually come down a lot in the days before the trip. Hope this helps. We can only hope the hotels and vacation rentals will be more than aware of falling occupancy and will adjust rates.
Thanks Jennifer that’s what I do with Costco though since they let us cancel to basically the day before your trip and usually can get a lower rate but didn’t happen this year hopefully it will next. I will definitely check out your suggestion
Economybookings.com has the best car rental deals
What are best deals on Maui, for sightseeing please?
Hi Halle.
That’s outside the scope of what Beat of Hawaii is about. We’d suggest your search for activities of your choosing online.
Aloha.
I believe the drop in travel is not related to COVID, but directly aligns to the policy decisions made within Hawaii – particularly to no. Allowance of Air BnB as a shrt term rental. While that decision had immediate results for residents- it had almost immediate results for tourism. This article could be stronger if it looked at timing of that those decisions and drop in expected tourists.
I go to Hawaii(Maui) often with my wife and read articles about it regularly. I do not feel welcome there unless I pay a significant sum of money, only stay at a resort, and accept getting nickle and dimed everywhere I go.
Our favorite two-week vacation for the past 15 years has been Kauai. We had not traveled since Dec 2019, and were stunned at prices. Not just condo rates/rental car rates — but the travel taxes and fees were higher than ever. Not only that, but beautiful sights now Charge to park and enter, such as Waimea Canyon. We could choose Europe, but we prefer to spend our travel dollars to US destinations. We will definitely consider other places now; that makes me sad but HI wasn’t alone in being hit by Covid. Many travelers had to rethink how/when to go. Now it’s just not feasible. And that makes me truly sad.
Maui has always been our magical place.
We have gone every other year since 2002.
We spend lots of money every time we go.
We just got back from a 2 week vacation at the Whaler which is one of our favorite places to stay in Maui.
I hate to say it. But I wish we didn’t even go.
This trip was horrible!
People were not friendly at all, which I thought was very unusual for Maui, but apparently from reading other reviews on this page this is the norm now for tourists.
customer service was horrible everywhere we went
Prices were outrageous.
This trip changed my whole view on Maui.
I don’t have that magical feeling when I think about it anymore.
A charge for Ohana care on my Rental that I have never had before and it was $650.
I believe what’s happening, is that a good number of other options are now becoming available. With Hawaii’s increased cost, that is making people look around.
This has been my experience as well. I’ve been traveling to Hawaii on a yearly basis, but probably won’t be going this year due to gauging costs and rude attitudes. There are plenty of places where tourists are valued and treated well – Hawaii is no longer one of them.
I really think Hawaii will kill the goose that laid the Golden Egg. The add on taxes and fees now of both state and counties is outrageous. There is getting to be the perception that Hawaii no longer welcomes tourists and even those part time residents unless they have millions that can be soaked for taxes.
We visit Maui three times a year, three weeks each trip. Prices are up but I can still find a car rental for 35.00 a day, or a little less, condos for 200.00 a night, and flights for 119.00 each way, if I don’t care where I sit.
Most of the locals are great but every now and then you run into an angry local but I also run into the same number, or more, of angry visitors.
We will continue to visit Maui.
We just went to Hawaii for 9 days and the cost has skyrocketed. I have been there numerous times since the 1990’s but we won’t be going back. They charge for parking everywhere good luck in getting those free Arizona boat ride tickets. The tour companies have scooped most of them up and you have to buy the “tour bus” ride for over $60 a person And they don’t even let you stay around to look at everything.
I grew up in Hawaii and used to return 3-4 times a year. I can no longer do that mainly because hotel costs are absurdly high these days as well as rental car rates. I can swallow the increased air fares since they are up everywhere but it is hotel and car rental rates that are no longer competitive with a lot of alternative destinations.
A few decades ago,my husband and I have come to a Hawaiian island every year for 3 weeks, usually in the month of November for best price situations. We were very attracted to how residents were so proud of their Polynesian background. I bought some CDs and a book with the intent of learning the Polynesian language. We loved the really great Hula & Music shows that were like no other. We read books about their background and shared their enthusiasm. We went to Kauai, Maui, & Molokai usually for 3 weeks. When we retired, our visits went from 3 weeks to 4-to-6 weeks on the Big island, and it was never enough. But over time, Hula & Music shows were reduced until the last time (Nov 15 to Dec 6, 2022) there were none. Not coming in 2023.
Hawaii made its bed…destroyed SRT for thousands of travelers who do want to save money, cook breakfast and some meals and kick back. Ex Kamaiana with Hawaiian in laws, we vacation in Europe and Sayulita Mex ( where we have owned for 18 years) with great surf, delicious cheap food, nice locals and great income from our SRT. Laters
Went to Maui in Feb of this year. Horribly overpriced, and everything looked dumpy and run down from the airport to the hotels we passed along the way. Homeless sleeping in cars and rusted and burned out cars littering the roadside. Lahaina was sad and tired, like an old rundown camp in the Catskills. Made me wonder why my parents liked going so much. Definitely off my list. Felt more like a floating trash heap than an island paradise.
I can only speak for myself, but for the last 2 years we have come to Oahu with a large group of 20. This year we decided not to come. Mainly because flights are double what we payed the last 2 years. On top of that air bnb rentals are way up too. I would say I always book flights first, and that was the initial shock when we began looking in Dec. Of 22 for June flights.
Airbnb rentals are more costly because many of them have been removed from the platform by the government and the hotel lobby. I had an onsite space that I rented to families for a very reasonable rate that is now subject to (something like) $10,000./day fines. There was talk of a lottery for licenses in residential neighborhoods to restrict the number of airbnb’s (which I agreed with) – then there was the 1 month minimum (which I was fine with) – then the whole thing was taken off the table and only airbnb’s in the “tourist zone” are allowed to operate – they are often just as expensive as hotels. Normal people cannot afford these rates. Airfare is a whole other animal – but $300-500/night in a hotel for a week or 2 many eclipse airfare.
I think Hawaii travel is down for 2 reasons: Hi has made it clear to me that we Haoles are not really welcome, and if we do come, we’ll be charged to do many things that used to be free. This seems crazy to me because so much of the HI economy dependent on tourism . And unbelievable price increases and extra fees: Having to take an expensive and rarely not full shuttle bus to see Haena in Kauai. Proposed fees to park many places. The parking fees at Whalers’ Village on Maui are absolutely ridiculous. We stay in our timeshare but we see that people are charged $700-800 a night to stay there. Most hotels I checked are $800-1500 a night! Only the ultra rich can afford those. Our rental car cost and meals out have doubled since preCov
Let’s clarify …Parking at Whaler’s Village is free while you shop or eat at the restaurants there (just ask them to stamp your parking ticket). As to the Whaler’s Condominium, it’s privately owned (my guess is that not by locals when you see those prices), so what each individual owner asks for (now that their taxes are higher in addition to their high monthly condo fees) has nothing to do with locals in Maui. They usually hang around the tree at the end of Black Rock while the rest of the beach is taken over by tourist. I was personally surprised that parking was mostly free in Maui. I don’t know of any other place that I visited that parking is fee.
Unsurprising that airlines and destinations overcharging based on pent up demand without local economies at even half normal capacity for staffing didn’t work out well.
People will go to France, Italy, etc. if it’s the same cost as sitting in a in a’garden view’ hotel unit at a timeshare property, eating styrofoam food from the poolside grill because everywhere is closed or overbooked, after taking hours to rent a car on arrival. Before considering new barriers to visiting parks, beaches, etc.
Or, for those who are content with that kind of experience, and just want to be on a chaise lounge, by a pool somewhere warm, there are much cheaper alternatives to Hawaii.
Hollowing out the middle of the market was a bad plan.
Do please respond if possible as we are curious of others like us…
We’ve been traveling and staying in the islands about 4-8 weeks every year for the last 20. We just returned in April. Don’t get me wrong because clearly we are spoiled and/or blessed to be able to do this each year, however, this is the first time back since Covid. We were horrified and depressed at what we are seeing. Prices, taxes, reservation restrictions, parking fees and frankly the absence of “Aloha” was disturbing. We can go anywhere and stay for as long as we want. We purchased in Maui and have enjoyed it. The extraordinary prices and attitudes are such that we decided we are spending the next 20 + years doing 4-8 weeks a year in Italy now. Is it just us?
You said that you bought on Maui, but you only spend 4-6 weeks on island. Is this a timeshare or do you rent out your place the rest of the time? The reason I am asking is that you mentioned higher taxes and yes, the new Mayor implemented higher taxes for owners who don’t live on property and/or keep it vacant. However, property taxes are considerably reduced for owners who rent out their property to long term tenants (1 year) or live in their property. Personally, I think it’s only fair, since there is a shortage of housing for locals. Regarding “lack of Aloha”, I don’t know how much Aloha you personally bring. Respect for locals and the land has been lost. I see families/groups with their golf cart taking over public beaches ….
First of all, the higher taxes for non-residents was passed before Bissen – that was done under Victorino.
Second, the “vacancy tax” bill was shot down and did not pass.
Please check your facts before posting here.
Thanks for letting me know. When was the vacancy bill shut down? Just found an article by CB dated May 19 in which they stated that Honolulu is looking to see what ultimately happens with that bill in Maui …I don’t think we have seen the end of it.
Eva – the Whalers’ parking is free for 2 hrs if you spend $15 or more. Our sailing trips parking cost us $24. If your are replying to my comment, I didn’t mean Whalers condos. I was referring to Westin Villas North of Kaanapali. Those are not fully owned, though owners can rent them out. I am referring to what the Villas charge outsiders for rooms
Italy is a great choice. You will get a much warmer, more generous, heartfelt welcome there. Italy is the true, authentic Land of Aloha.