To understand what might happen to Maui, it is helpful to look at Florida’s own transformation. Once a haven for retirees from across the United States, Florida’s real estate market catered to wealthier, older buyers who wanted to escape the colder months of their northern home states. The result was a housing market that, while appealing to these snowbirds, became increasingly inaccessible to the working class in many resort areas.
Maui may be on a similar trajectory. Just as Florida became the go-to destination for snowbirds, Maui’s allure could bring retirees and investors flocking to its shores.
The proposed ban on vacation rentals doesn’t change the fact that Maui is a highly desirable place to live, and for those with the financial means, the chance to own a piece of paradise at what could become new, somewhat lower price points remains attractive.
For example, one commenter on Beat of Hawaii noted:
“These condos will become popular with retirees who have fallen in love with Hawaii while on vacation and can afford to retire to paradise. Maui would become the new Florida or snowbird haven.”
Comment from JB on Beat of Hawaii
JB’s insightful comment underscores a growing concern: the policies intended to help locals have the potential to backfire, creating a new class of homeowners who, while not renting, themselves only reside part-time on the island.
Economic and social consequences of investor takeover.
If mainland investors and retirees dominate the Maui market, the effects could ripple through Maui’s economy and society. One of the most immediate impacts would be a potential drop in tax revenue.
Vacation rentals, while controversial, contribute significantly to the county’s budget through transient accommodation taxes. Retirees and second-home owners, on the other hand, wouldn’t generate the same level of revenue. Their spending habits also differ from that of tourists, and they may be less likely to support the local Maui visitor industry in the same way.
Maui’s demographic shift could accelerate as more out-of-state buyers stand poised to purchase these condos. The island could see an increase in part-time residents, particularly during winter, leaving parts of the island vacant during the off-season. This could push local businesses to cater more to seasonal occupants rather than full-time residents.
Most importantly, this shift could seemingly do little to solve Maui’s affordable housing crisis. Instead of vacation rental operators, the island could see condos snapped up by mainland buyers—making it no easier for full-time residents to find affordable places to live.
What are the solutions to Maui’s housing dilemma?
There are no easy answers to Maui’s housing problems, but the conversation around these vacation rental bans has raised important questions. Some argue that more targeted solutions are needed, such as focusing on building affordable housing specifically for full-time residents or providing incentives for developers to focus on homes catering to lower income levels.
Others suggest zoning and tax reforms that could constrain the number of out-of-state buyers or other creative solutions prioritizing local families over retirees and second-home buyers. While challenging to implement, these measures may help Maui avoid becoming another Florida snowbird haven and keep the island’s housing market more accessible for local workers.
Ultimately, Maui remains at a crossroads. The decisions made now will shape the island’s future for decades. Will it become the next Florida, catering to retirees and outside investors, or will leaders find a way to preserve Maui’s unique identity and provide housing solutions for its working residents?
Your poignant comments about what’s happening on Maui.
On unrealistic expectations of affordability:
D.H. said vacation rentals, especially beachfront condos, are inherently unaffordable for local residents:
“You don’t expect to find apartments on beachfront property, as are the majority of the developments on the West side. If property values of these units drop due to the ban, the cost of the maintenance fees won’t drop. Can most families afford these fees on top of either mortgage or rental payments? I don’t think they can.“
Boondoggle by Maui officials:
Phillip spoke to the economic and legal repercussions of the vacation rental ban, calling it a boondoggle created by ill-informed officials:
“Do any of these ‘decision makers’ from the Gov on down have any clue how this would gut Maui and the state in general? This is economic ignorance of the highest order, plus clear 4th amendment issues.“
STR ban will hurt locals more than help:
Patrick observes how the ban could have negative consequences for the very people it aims to help:
“We own a condo on the west side and there is no way a family could live there comfortably. We use local house cleaners, handymen, and contractors. If we have to sell, all that income our service providers rely on will evaporate.“
A Maui rental ban is a start in the right direction:
Mark opined that you have to start somewhere.
“While the STR ban isn’t perfect, it’s a start. Something has to be done to address housing. If it helps even a little bit by discouraging more speculation, it might be the right move. Locals are struggling, and we need solutions, even if they come with tough choices.“
Regular commenter Lani concurred, adding,
“This won’t fix everything, but reducing STRs could still be part of the answer. There needs to be balance, and Maui can’t just cater to tourists at the expense of the people who live and work here. I support trying something, even if it isn’t perfect yet.“
Maui’s government policies are to blame:
James criticizes the local government’s failure to prioritize affordable housing over the years, highlighting frustration with inaction on housing, with the vacation rental ban seen as a scapegoat for more systemic problems:
“The real tragedy is that the proposed ban is a pandering shell game that diverts from the terrible government policies that have made development of low and moderate housing in Hawaii nearly impossible.”
The importance of tourism revenue:
Sheryl raises a vital economic concern: the ban, along with rising fees, will discourage tourism, damaging the industry that sustains many local livelihoods and further impairing residents’ ability to acquire housing.
“These fees and beach fees are another way of sticking it to tourists. Hawaii’s government officials are not only killing the tourist industry, they’re quickly killing local businesses. Very sad indeed.“
Impact on Maui’s economic sustainability:
Kona takes a strong stance against the government’s interference:
“I am watching the likes of a third-world government confiscating legally owned properties. The governor laid this dirty job at the foot of the Maui Planning Department and the mayor. Maui mismanaged the fire, and now they are going after citizens of the United States to take their homes.“
Contradiction in Housing Solutions:
Regular Bryon questions whether the government’s plan will actually deliver results:
“I can’t understand how they think the STR ban will bring prices down so more families can afford homes. Most of the units in the banned area are well over a million dollars. The prices are probably always going to be high. It’s Hawaii.“
Mistrust of outside influences:
Katherine F. expresses frustration with non-local interference:
“A minority of locals claiming to be kanaka are advocating for the overthrow of the U.S. government from Maui. They have called white STR owners slave owners to our faces… They are xenophobic and anti-tourist. Many of them don’t even come from Maui!“
No Long-Term Planning by Maui Government:
Walter argues that the vacation rental issue is a distraction from the real problem:
“Government just focuses on things that benefit business activity and wealth attraction without regard to the workers needed to sustain such activities. It’s the lack of planning by state and local governments across the country that is the main problem.“
A Call for Balance:
Drew808 provides a more culturally nuanced view:
“Hawaii has very different values than the mainland. Combined with a complicated history, it would be best not to take offense at local pushback. Perhaps a little perspective and grace is in order when it comes to locals struggling to live where they were born.”
What do you think – could Maui become a snowbird destination?
Or is there still a chance to shift the balance in favor of its full-time residents? Let us know in the comments below.
Hat tip to commenter JB for inspiring us today.
If not for STRs on steroids. These units would be long term rentals units for the local working people of Maui. Rent control should also be considered, so if STRs are limited/reduced the owners can’t make LT rentals unaffordable.
Most of the STR’s that are on, “The List,” will not solve problems for housing for locals. If a small condo owner has to sell, as they can’t afford it due to not being able to rent it part of the time. Someone will purchase it and either keep it for their family to utilize or try and rent it out for a long term lease. Many of the condo’s aren’t suitable for a local family. Too small, not enough closet or storage space, etc. Banning STR’s will do nothing except to hurt the local economy. Maui government needs to look in the mirror & ask what have I done to create affordable housing for locals? The answer is, ” Nothing.”
I own a timeshare on Maui and have been there many times–more than 10 times in the last 15 years. I have no opinion on the STR issue, however, it is apparent that Maui (and probably Hawaii in general) needs to spend a significant amount of money on modernizing infrastructure. Burying power lines, for example, so they don’t spark and start fires. Finding new sources of fresh water. Adding more renewable energy sources, especially solar. Expanding roads into West Maui in particular. If I were the government, I’d also press for new developments to be “green-certified,” so they do not waste resources but add value to the overall environment. Generate as much of their own electricity as possible. I’d also pass a law that abandoned buildings need to be razed, which eliminates blight and beautifies the community and provides land for better, modern, eco-sustainable development.
I was born on the east coast of the mainland but have lived all over the country. I commute between two places, Airbnbing one when staying at the other. I discovered Hawaii in 2016 and have been coming for 4 month stays ever since. My dream is to drop one of my homes on the mainland so I can commute between Hawaii and the other place. I’m 66. I vet my guests well, so I’ve never had a problem with them disturbing my neighbors. I pay $50 hourly to my housekeepers, gardeners and handymen. My guests purchase locally. Banning STVRs would financially hurt the people in my employ. The housekeepers alone would have to go back to working minimum wage at a hotel. There is a housing crisis across the United States. Given that STVRs make up Less Than 1% of all housing in America, they are not the cause of the crisis. This myth is propagated by the hotel lobby. How about we go back to honoring mom and pop businesses?
The “people” you employ will never be able to own a home of their own. They have no benefits or retirement plans. They live paycheck to paycheck. They can never achieve the American dream.
They are the modern equivalent of peasants, doomed to toil for you.
Time to force all investor and corporate homes to be sold.
Florida welcomes snowbirds Maui doesn’t want tourist or snowbirds and they make it very clear. You would have to like the vetbal abuse that come with going to Maui to make it a destination
Enough already. You’ve got to stop flogging a dead horse. We’ve heard and understand what Maui wants. Let’s do a 1 or 2 year trial. Make Maui off limits for visitors and ban off-island buying of real estate. After the trial period, let’s see what Maui wants then.
Affordable housing for locals seems to be the best option to aliviate the housing crisis on Maui and to keep STRs available for tourists. The question is will the state and local governments of Hawaii cooperate?
We own a condo in Poipu, Kauai. For over 20+ years it was a STR.
Recently we terminated the STR and have become Kauai residents, spending 183 days/year there.
We know others who have done the same.
Could the Maui housing situation occur on Kauai?
Interesting comparisons of ownership of HI real estate: I note the changes over the years in timeshare “ownership” and am thankful that I acquired our 3 timeshares (one on Kaua’i and two on Maui) when they were secured with warranty deeds, not the current “point schemes”. Jim E
Another problem that may arise: We get cards and phone calls at least weekly from companies (often out of the country) who want to buy my house (it’s not for sale). They buy “as is” and offer top dollar. They are not buying these houses to renovate and/or sell, but to rent out. When they have control of enough of the market in an area, they start pushing up prices in the area, eventually the price increases spill over into apartments. Because of this the value of my house, which remained fairly stable for over 30 years, has doubled in just 3-4 years.
I’ll help, since Maui’s politicians here operate on feelings & not facts;
1] Land Value Taxation (LVT) as it encourages landowners to develop or sell underutilized land rather than holding it for speculative gains
2] Incentivize building on Community Land Trusts (CLT’s) to keep land in perpetuity to build on, as homeowners own the home only, not the land
3] Buy-Back Programs for Existing Short-Term Rentals NOT bans. Turn into affordable housing & owner occupied tax rates
4] Short-Term Rental (STR) Credits, introduce a credit system for short-term rentals, where owners must buy credits to operate. A limited number of credits could be allocated based on community needs, w/ a % reserved for local residents.
5] “Empty Home” Tax: Impose a tax on properties that remain unoccupied for a significant portion of the year, targeting seasonal & second-home owners.
Bonus: Resident-Only Housing Zones; implement zoning laws that designate certain areas for local, full-time residents only.
Follow the money.. STR create jobs for the locals and they pay their workers well $30+ per hour and the owners pay big taxes 18%. The ban on STR will put folks out of work. The guest who stay at the STR spend their money 💰 in the local businesses. Why would the Country want to lose the tax money and tourists spending money and put the workers out of a job. Use the tax money to build housing for the locals. 18% is a lot of 💰 . Where does that money go?
This is a very difficult issue.. one that is not sorted out easily.. Even if STRs are completely eliminated.. if future tourism growth is stunted, if hotel development is slowed or stopped, you have a new dilemma.. Tourism will be down, businesses cease to operate.. fewer jobs..
Then.. will properties maintain their value? Current owners will not be happy knocking one or two hundred thousand off the value of their retirement next egg.. (biggest asset in many cases).. OR if mainlanders buy up the property for a second residence but only use it sparingly.. what a loss for the local residents..
It would be prudent for the state.. to find a way to make affordable housing available without ransacking their tourism industry.. what is to replace that revenue?.. can residents afford to make up for the lost taxes and revenue? Will they be able to afford it?
The governor, mayors and state, best think long and hard before going forward without a very good plan!!
Charging Turists and preventing renting on the beaches of Maui it’s not gonna help any local people people because they can’t afford those properties anyway and most of them are timeshares and the Timeshare people come there and the tourist come there and they spend money with the local economy, which helps Maui if you take that away you are hurting the local economy. The government of Maui doesn’t know what they’re doing. They have quick solutions to problems that they don’t understand and there’s repercussions that they just don’t get.
The tax fee on a rental property goes to the government and that’s definitely not helping local people and the fire was definitely the fault of the stupid people who are running the Maui government and They should step down
The fact is the STRs currently identified for non-rental, such as Kapalua Golf Villas or even Eldorado, will never drop in price to the point of being affordable to locals. If prices drop due to rental bans, people like me will buy condos for personal use at a higher price point than locals. As the article suggests, this is a worse scenario than the present situation. I will let friends and family use my condo but it won’t have the traffic a rental would. What is needed is new purpose-built apartments and condos, rather than converting these high-end resort condos.
Again…I don’t hear anything about housing for local people.
If the objective is to shift ownership away from the rentier class (and to another class) there exists a simple solution (that has existed since the dawn of governance). The property taxation regime can be skewed (without limit) to tax away the incentives of the rentiers and, better yet, to incentivize and compel (via direct transference onto) any other class (perhaps even a class that associates with being disenfranchised either in equity or in the emotional experience that resembles it and for which the regulator feels obligated to).
Your solution is far from simple. Only some STRs are being attacked, so trying to carve in a tax on those but not others would be difficult. Not to mention, you are essentially proposzzing that we limit the market for these multi-million dollar units such as xx they will be worth only a $300,000 – $500,000 to be affordable to locals. Besides being unfair and destroying the condo market, this is arguably a taking by the government that would require compensation.
Isn’t it odd that the Mayor and County Council continue to approve luxury condo and home development projects plus hotel expansions yet disapprove affordable housing projects? Actions speak louder than words. So, if the county does not “act” like there is a housing problem, what’s the truth?
One need only look across our country and recent history to see what happens when we ban citizens from owning property or to ban STR’s. During the recent pandemic, mountain towns saw a huge increase in people moving to these desirable places to live due to remote working options. Now these same mountain towns are also looking for “local housing” and trying to ban STR’s. Rather than deal with the housing issues, they are trying to blame owners of investment property (capitalism..) and ban sales to certain groups. Even in the above article it mentions some points about only selling to a select portion of the community. When you limit sales to certain groups it raises concerns. If you inserted a persons color, religion, race, gender, etc would that be acceptable? I don’t believe so.. Let capitalism work and don’t blame owners and build the needed infrastructure. Hawaii is a tourist-based economy, let’s embrace it and take advantage of it, not chase visitors away. Thanks.
The problem squarely falls on the Hawaiian government. The government has sold it’s people out for decades. Why the residents and natives refuse to see this and or do anything about it is mind boggling to me. They keep voting the same people and the same political party in over and over again. I read an article recently that stated in the last election only 32% of REGISTERED voters even bothered to fill out a ballot. On one hand I am extremely sympathetic as the natives are being systematically pushed out but on the other hand I have a difficult time taking people seriously when you don’t even do the most basic and fundamental option to potentially turn things around. Yes elections can be manipulated but 68% of registered voters not even casting a vote is all I needed to read. Want to start fixing Hawaii, start voting out the incumbents and the sellouts that are getting fat while you are getting perpetually squeezed…