Could Maui Become the New Florida?

To understand what might happen to Maui, it is helpful to look at Florida’s own transformation. Once a haven for retirees from across the United States, Florida’s real estate market catered to wealthier, older buyers who wanted to escape the colder months of their northern home states. The result was a housing market that, while appealing to these snowbirds, became increasingly inaccessible to the working class in many resort areas.

Maui may be on a similar trajectory. Just as Florida became the go-to destination for snowbirds, Maui’s allure could bring retirees and investors flocking to its shores.

The proposed ban on vacation rentals doesn’t change the fact that Maui is a highly desirable place to live, and for those with the financial means, the chance to own a piece of paradise at what could become new, somewhat lower price points remains attractive.

For example, one commenter on Beat of Hawaii noted:

“These condos will become popular with retirees who have fallen in love with Hawaii while on vacation and can afford to retire to paradise. Maui would become the new Florida or snowbird haven.”

Comment from JB on Beat of Hawaii

JB’s insightful comment underscores a growing concern: the policies intended to help locals have the potential to backfire, creating a new class of homeowners who, while not renting, themselves only reside part-time on the island.

Economic and social consequences of investor takeover.

If mainland investors and retirees dominate the Maui market, the effects could ripple through Maui’s economy and society. One of the most immediate impacts would be a potential drop in tax revenue.

Vacation rentals, while controversial, contribute significantly to the county’s budget through transient accommodation taxes. Retirees and second-home owners, on the other hand, wouldn’t generate the same level of revenue. Their spending habits also differ from that of tourists, and they may be less likely to support the local Maui visitor industry in the same way.

Maui’s demographic shift could accelerate as more out-of-state buyers stand poised to purchase these condos. The island could see an increase in part-time residents, particularly during winter, leaving parts of the island vacant during the off-season. This could push local businesses to cater more to seasonal occupants rather than full-time residents.

Most importantly, this shift could seemingly do little to solve Maui’s affordable housing crisis. Instead of vacation rental operators, the island could see condos snapped up by mainland buyers—making it no easier for full-time residents to find affordable places to live.

What are the solutions to Maui’s housing dilemma?

There are no easy answers to Maui’s housing problems, but the conversation around these vacation rental bans has raised important questions. Some argue that more targeted solutions are needed, such as focusing on building affordable housing specifically for full-time residents or providing incentives for developers to focus on homes catering to lower income levels.

Others suggest zoning and tax reforms that could constrain the number of out-of-state buyers or other creative solutions prioritizing local families over retirees and second-home buyers. While challenging to implement, these measures may help Maui avoid becoming another Florida snowbird haven and keep the island’s housing market more accessible for local workers.

Ultimately, Maui remains at a crossroads. The decisions made now will shape the island’s future for decades. Will it become the next Florida, catering to retirees and outside investors, or will leaders find a way to preserve Maui’s unique identity and provide housing solutions for its working residents?

Your poignant comments about what’s happening on Maui.

On unrealistic expectations of affordability:

D.H. said vacation rentals, especially beachfront condos, are inherently unaffordable for local residents:

“You don’t expect to find apartments on beachfront property, as are the majority of the developments on the West side. If property values of these units drop due to the ban, the cost of the maintenance fees won’t drop. Can most families afford these fees on top of either mortgage or rental payments? I don’t think they can.“

Boondoggle by Maui officials:

Phillip spoke to the economic and legal repercussions of the vacation rental ban, calling it a boondoggle created by ill-informed officials:

“Do any of these ‘decision makers’ from the Gov on down have any clue how this would gut Maui and the state in general? This is economic ignorance of the highest order, plus clear 4th amendment issues.“

STR ban will hurt locals more than help:

Patrick observes how the ban could have negative consequences for the very people it aims to help:

“We own a condo on the west side and there is no way a family could live there comfortably. We use local house cleaners, handymen, and contractors. If we have to sell, all that income our service providers rely on will evaporate.“

A Maui rental ban is a start in the right direction:

Mark opined that you have to start somewhere.

“While the STR ban isn’t perfect, it’s a start. Something has to be done to address housing. If it helps even a little bit by discouraging more speculation, it might be the right move. Locals are struggling, and we need solutions, even if they come with tough choices.“

Regular commenter Lani concurred, adding,

“This won’t fix everything, but reducing STRs could still be part of the answer. There needs to be balance, and Maui can’t just cater to tourists at the expense of the people who live and work here. I support trying something, even if it isn’t perfect yet.“

Maui’s government policies are to blame:

James criticizes the local government’s failure to prioritize affordable housing over the years, highlighting frustration with inaction on housing, with the vacation rental ban seen as a scapegoat for more systemic problems:

“The real tragedy is that the proposed ban is a pandering shell game that diverts from the terrible government policies that have made development of low and moderate housing in Hawaii nearly impossible.”

The importance of tourism revenue:

Sheryl raises a vital economic concern: the ban, along with rising fees, will discourage tourism, damaging the industry that sustains many local livelihoods and further impairing residents’ ability to acquire housing.

“These fees and beach fees are another way of sticking it to tourists. Hawaii’s government officials are not only killing the tourist industry, they’re quickly killing local businesses. Very sad indeed.“

Impact on Maui’s economic sustainability:

Kona takes a strong stance against the government’s interference:

“I am watching the likes of a third-world government confiscating legally owned properties. The governor laid this dirty job at the foot of the Maui Planning Department and the mayor. Maui mismanaged the fire, and now they are going after citizens of the United States to take their homes.“

Contradiction in Housing Solutions:

Regular Bryon questions whether the government’s plan will actually deliver results:

“I can’t understand how they think the STR ban will bring prices down so more families can afford homes. Most of the units in the banned area are well over a million dollars. The prices are probably always going to be high. It’s Hawaii.“

Mistrust of outside influences:

Katherine F. expresses frustration with non-local interference:

“A minority of locals claiming to be kanaka are advocating for the overthrow of the U.S. government from Maui. They have called white STR owners slave owners to our faces… They are xenophobic and anti-tourist. Many of them don’t even come from Maui!“

No Long-Term Planning by Maui Government:

Walter argues that the vacation rental issue is a distraction from the real problem:

“Government just focuses on things that benefit business activity and wealth attraction without regard to the workers needed to sustain such activities. It’s the lack of planning by state and local governments across the country that is the main problem.“

A Call for Balance:

Drew808 provides a more culturally nuanced view:

“Hawaii has very different values than the mainland. Combined with a complicated history, it would be best not to take offense at local pushback. Perhaps a little perspective and grace is in order when it comes to locals struggling to live where they were born.”

What do you think – could Maui become a snowbird destination?

Or is there still a chance to shift the balance in favor of its full-time residents? Let us know in the comments below.

Hat tip to commenter JB for inspiring us today.