Hawaii’s travel industry is a delicate ecosystem heavily influenced by the availability and reliability of its airlines. Hawaiian and Southwest Airlines are pillars of this system, and any disruption to their services could pose a significant threat, especially for travel between islands. The potential fallout would be huge if anything changed.
Hawaii Travel Industry Needs Both Hawaiian and Southwest.
The economic ripple effect of any loss of essential connectivity provided by these two companies, especially within Hawaii, would be felt across the islands, exacerbating the challenges already faced by Hawaii’s tourism sector and far more.
Challenges facing Hawaiian Airlines.
Established in 1929, Hawaiian has become synonymous with interisland travel, providing crucial connectivity for residents and Hawaii visitors.
The potential merger with Alaska Airlines has offered a strong glimmer of hope for stability and growth. But the path forward remains highly uncertain. Within the next two weeks, we will know for sure if the U.S. Department of Justice intends to approve or deny Alaska’s planned acquisition of Hawaiian.
Merger sentiment: Hawaiian Airlines stock sank 12% today, and 18% in past five days.
Reports and sentiment within the past week reflect growing concern that the Department of Justice may well block the $1.8 billion sale to Alaska Airlines, casting further doubt on the merger’s success. This uncertainty has significantly impacted Hawaiian’s stock, which sank 18% in the past five days. It is trading at a big discount compared with the price that Alaska is prepared to pay. In addition, there is this report out today from this investment market publication. Prior to that article, about one week ago, the share price began a descent.
“The Department of Justice is unlikely to approve its planned $1.8 billion sale to Alaska Air. The antitrust regulator is preparing to challenge the combination.”
Seeking Alpha.
Hawaiian Airlines continues to report significant, ongoing financial losses, with a staggering GAAP net loss of $137.6 million for the first quarter of 2024 and a net loss of $101.2 million in the prior quarter. This amounts to an alarming run rate of $1.515 million lost daily. Despite higher revenues, the airline has struggled to regain profitability, reporting a net loss of $260 million for 2023.
Adding to Hawaiian’s financial woes, market pressures and operational challenges, including long-term issues with their A321neo fleet and a still problematic Hawaiian Airlines reservation system upgrade more than one year on, have exacerbated its financial and customer satisfaction concerns.
Southwest became essential to Hawaii flights over the past five years.
Originally known in Hawaii for low airfares, Southwest also brought customer-friendly policies like two free checked bags, no change or cancellation fees, and non-expiring flight credits to Hawaii. Their entry here brought far cheaper interisland flights with a product that many residents and visitors like. See our most recent Southwest Hawaii review (JEFF LINK).
Since arriving in Hawaii, following a decade of planning and challenges, Southwest Airlines first expanded rapidly, then contracted by some fifty percent. Nonetheless, they continue to play a key role in keeping interisland flight prices (and some competitive West Coast prices) in check. While their presence has been transformative, their future here certainly hangs in the balance.
For a myriad of reasons, Southwest has been unable to achieve the desired results in keeping interisland flights full and profitable. Hawaiian Airlines reportedly maintains a healthy interisland load factor of 74%, while Southwest’s is about 36% lower.
Southwest continues to operate a significant quantity of daily flights within Hawaii, nearly half as many as bellwether Hawaiian. That is essential to providing competitive prices across the market, with both airlines still as low as $49. They also help add to and stabilize the connectivity here that we analogize with a mainland bus or train system.
Challenges Facing Southwest Airlines in Hawaii.
Southwest Airlines has been facing significant financial challenges, the most recent of which are multiple near-miss incidents involving Southwest flights. The FAA and NTSB have scrutinized the airline, raising concerns about safety and operational oversight.
Recently reporting a net loss of $231 million in the first quarter of 2024, investors and industry observers have also raised red flags about the airline’s profitability, stability, focus, and more.
Despite its popularity in Hawaii, the situation speaks to underlying difficulties the airline is grappling with, which may not be consistent with its current level of Hawaii flights. That since these do not appear to have translated into a profitable operation.
In addition, Southwest’s low airfares on its Hawaii routes, especially interisland, while beneficial for Hawaii visitors and residents, are too low for profitability. The competition has put a significant strain on revenue generation in Hawaii. This balance remains a critical challenge for Southwest Airlines Hawaii ops going forward.
Potential flight disruption scenarios.
Recent revelations about Southwest’s financial issues and investor discontent raise questions about their Hawaii flight operations and threaten to result in possible, if not likely, reductions in their Hawaii flights.
Hawaiian Airlines, too, faces looming troubles, including possible, if not likely, bankruptcy, should the Alaska Airlines acquisition in fact not come to fruition. As the primary interisland carrier and a major player in trans-Pacific flights, any issues impacting Hawaiian Airlines’ flights would leave a significant void that other airlines could not fill.
Hawaii’s economy is completely reliant on air travel.
Air travel is essential in sustaining Hawaii tourism and the entire functioning of the state. Disruptions in Hawaii flights for any reason would have far-reaching consequences, not only for the travel industry and its visitors but also for Hawaii’s economy and its residents.
A surge in pricing could be ahead for Hawaii flights.
Hawaii airfares will rise significantly in the future due to reduced competition across all airlines and before any potential interruptions by Southwest or Hawaiian. This will continue to make travel to Hawaii less affordable. Without two thriving interisland carriers, interisland flights would see base prices jump by double or more each way, and mainland to Hawaii flights would also see fares rise. See Airfare to Hawaii Takes Off: A Challenging Future Offers Glimmers of Hope.
Hawaii flights remain a small and delicate ecosystem.
Hawaiian and Southwest Airlines are crucial to maintaining the accessibility and affordability of Hawaii travel, especially between islands. If the merger proceeds, we will support both carriers, including a new Hawaiian/Alaska. Any decrease to what we have now could have difficult consequences for visitors and residents.
We welcome your input on these fast-changing developments in Hawaii’s air travel industry.
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I would expect Alaska to pare down or exit inter Island flying completely if it is not quickly profitable. I also expect Alaska to cease flying the transpacific routes and eliminate the Hawaiian brand regardless of what they say they intend to do. Alaska isn’t going to buy a money losing airline and continue to lose money. They want to eleminate Hawaiian, not be it’s savior.
Personally, I am not that excited about the merger since
Alaska is committed to a single aisle Boeing fleet.
My favorite plane is the A 330 wide body with the 2 – 4 -2 layout.
You should be excited about the merger
Not sure how much longer Hawaii can sustain the entire onslaught of tourism disruption. The airline insecurity is just part of incredibly insufficient oversight of the tourism in the state. First and foremost, there are the inherent conflicts between the HTA (changes leadership every 18 months), HVCB (had entrenched leadership for 18 years) and the various committees of the legislature. There is also the runaway interests of Hawaii’s hoteliers, who command a powerful lobbying operation, while at the same time directing visitors to vacation rentals (they are trying to eliminate) due to ultra high hotel pricing. Outrageous accommodations taxes & fees are no help. Rental vehicle pricing drives visitors to despair. And now Hawaiian Airlines is in jeopardy of complete failure, while Southwest is severely cutting back services and raising prices. Visitors, especially annual visitors, are letting it be known they will not be coming back. Where is the leadership and solutions?
Best solution, don’t go to Hawaii for a few years, I’ve gone at least once a year for the past 8 years and close to every other for about 15 years before that.
But I won’t be going next year due to the prices doubling this summer over what I normally pay. Instead I will take my wife and kids to Europe for the next few summers at least and if the prices continue to go up then Hawaii might be canceled all together.
If we let the airlines charge more and pay for it we will all end up paying more. Avoid travel to the places where travel is rising and take control back from the airlines.
Using HA’s stock price as an indicator of this deal going through or not is foolish when several stocks plunged over the last 2 days due to profit taking.
Today HA’s stock has rebounded is that now an indicator the deal is going to be approved?
Aloha, It’s always sad to see airlines go into tailspins. Hopefully Southwest and Hawaiian will pull out of this and make a nice soft landing in Hawaii. So many families rely on the jobs that they provide. The airline business is absolute cutthroat competition. Southwest is a little behind the curve with technology and amenities, but they can catch up with a renewed focus on customer confidence in their product, if they spend the money to update. They have been losing money on their Hawaii service since its inception 5 years ago. Let’s hope for the best. Hawaiian is in a no win situation if the merger with Alaska is vetoed. They are hemorrhaging so much money every month and the fierce competing they face in almost all their markets makes it a really tough row to hoe for them. It will be very interesting to watch how the leadership of these 2 companies move forward. Obviously the status quo is not working for them. Mahalo
Hi! The SeekingAlfa post you linked to re DOJ direction itself fully relied on a post by “CTFN”. It’s not clear to me that CTFN isn’t something garbage-like being used in this case as a vehicle to manipulate pricing to aid underwater short sellers or similar.
Yeah, there is so much information online that it’s
really hard to separate fact from fiction.
Please do not make that prediction about doj blocking the Alaska and Hawaiian merger it is important for them to merge
Please don’t make assumptions that Hawaiian needs this merger either. Hawaiian may have debt, but it is not at a point where it is solely dependant on a Merger. Alaska Airlines needs this merger to go through more than Hawaiian needs it because of what Hawaiian has that Alaska has been struggling to obtain but never will on it’s own, International flights and global brand recognition. Alaska Airlines, internationally is not a recognized brand by the Global public. A lot of it is due to the name sake of the Airline itself, Alaska. That name unfortunately markets itself specifically for the State of Alaska and the Pacific Northwest. Hawaiʻi at the end of the day is more Marketable to International Travelers than Alaska’s base routes in the Pacific Northwest.
Are you kidding? Hawaiian is basically looking at insolvency options (like Spirit is right now) this this gets blocked. They need this 1000% more than Alk. Alk is a viable, profitable going concern without the merger. Hawaiian would likely be left bankrupt within a year.
Okay, so explain what insolvencies is Hawaiian Airlines doing since you seem to know so much about what they are doing as far as their Finances and Operations. Becuase, Spirit Airlines defered it’s deliveries for their orders with Airbus for their new A321Neo’s from 2025 through 2026 and pushed it back to 2030 & 2031. Hawaiian Airlines didn’t defer and have begun taking their deliveries of their new Boeing 787-9 Dreamliner’s. You do realize how much money it costs to certify the aircraft, ETOPs cert, crew certification for both Flight Deck and Cabin Crew along with Maintenance. If Hawaiian didn’t have the means to bring it online they would have defered.
They delayed the 787 more times than I can remember.
1st I don’t have any special knowledge about HA at all. It’s a public company and its finances are open for anyone to review.
2nd, I didn’t say they were insolvent right now. They still have an open credit line for day to day expenses.
What I do know is that HA’s stock was trading for about $4 per share before the ALK announcement and was losing money. And its market cap that assumed a large risk of future insolvency. And it has only lost money since then. Its share price in 24 has solely reflected a bet on the probability of the merger closing.
I know that Spirit has a $300m market cap right now, meaning the market assumes likely insolvency (and probable liquidation).
And if the merger doesn’t happen, HA’s stock will go below $4, and the market’s assumption will be that it can only continue bleeding cash for so long while making payments on its mountains of debt.
You are quite correct … those who think HAL can “go it on their own” or perhaps they “don’t need” the merger (which is actually a life raft for HAL) from this point forward are simply indulging in wishful thinking …
Feels like it’s made up. Never mind the flying public, how about the human beings with livelihoods in the balance? Please stop playing with our emotions.
Another thing to consider is swa is flying a max-8, 176 passengers while Hawaiian interisland uses a 717, significantly less when comparing load factor percentage
I’d much rather fly on a 717 than a MAX anyday
Yeah! At least in the 717, you know what it feels like to be stuffed in a sardine can.
As long as Southwest is in Hawaii, they will fly interisland.
They have no maintenance in Hawaii, relying instead on rotating their planes interisland and then back to the mainland.
So unlike Hawaiian, interisland profitability doesn’t necessarily have to stand on its own.
Flying interisland has nothing to do with maintenance. AA, UA, DL….in fact every other airline has no interisland service and does most of not all of their maintenance on the mainland. The two points are completely unrelated.
HA will probably go bankrupt if the merger doesn’t go through but I doubt it will be allowed to go out of business by the state. I anticipate a major shrinkage of flight schedule and services though. SW may end up benefitting from it and gaining market share – perhaps even becoming the predominate interisland carrier if they begin RON’ing their aircraft in state…
Best Regards
Jay – What makes you think that HA is going Bankrupt without this merger? If the Company is headed for bankruptcy then, they would already be filing for it because a pending merger isn’t going to prevent them from going under, unless they’ve received approval. Also, HA isn’t behaving like a company going into bankruptcy. They’ve taken delivery of their new 787 fleet and also began new routes and increased more West Coast frequencies, which all cost money. If Hawaiian didn’t have the money to do this, then they would be doing the opposite. Hawaiian Airlines has debt, there’s no arguing that, but the business itself is not at a point where they are going to file Bankruptcy. What they need need should the Merger fail is a new CEO.
That’s not how it works.
If the merger goes through, HA’s shareholders get $18 per share and HA becomes a wholly owned subsidiary of ALK.
If it doesn’t go through, then HA stays an independent company. They’ll be able to keep operating for a while using existing credit facilities, but if HA can’t ultimately turn around its losses it will need to restructure its debt in bankruptcy.
And of course HA is operating normally now while they await the outcome. It would literally be illegal for for HA to act like a ALK owns it before the antitrust approval. HA is required by law to keep acting or operating “normally” until then.
Best Reply to that Ez is a quote from Lyndon Johnson’s top economic advisor:
“That which cannot go on forever will stop”
Herbert Stein
You cannot go on forever losing millions of dollars a month, therefore, it will stop…
Best Regards
From the article: “DOJ “Unlikely to Approve” Hawaiian/Alaska Deal” …
Right. Just like I said when this subject first “popped” on BoH …
Been there, done that when doing airline-speak … and when it comes to those flying machine companies (and things in general I’ve come to learn after 70+ years of livin’ and breathin’) — “the more things change, the more they stay the same” …
Aloha, my Bruddah’s and Sistah’s …
My wife and I have loyally flown on HA for over 20 years.
HA has been mismanaged.
If the DOJ denies the merger with Alaska,
HA will have no choice but to file bankruptcy.
Lee B – there’s no doubt that there’s mismanagement happening at Hawaiian, but to say they are going bankrupt if this merger doesn’t go through is far from the truth. Hawaiian does need new Leadership but it does not neccesarily mean Alaska’s Management will be any better. Alaska manages their Airline operations for it’s network and branding, Hawaiian Airlines operates a completely different from them, and Alaska’s CEO has admitted that they have no experience in Interisland operations or International flying which is the primary reason for Alaska wanting to merge with Hawaiian. So, which is worst? Management that is doing a bad job, or a new Company that doesn’t know what they are doing?
Thank God I got paid today, gonna book a vacation and redeem my miles before the inevitable bankruptcy. Will be sad to see Hawaiian go
“Hawaii’s economy is completely reliant on air travel”
You can thank the Sierra Club, the Judiciary and the surf bums on Kauai for driving Superferry out of the islands.
If I’m an investor at a huge hedge fund, I can pay SeekingAlpha to create a scary hit piece, then push the stock price down, grab a bunch of cheaper shares, then reap the rewards once the DOJ report approves the merger. It wasn’t an accident this morning shares were down sub $11, then quickly back over $12.40.
Besides, BOA itself has been demonstrating through articles that there will be plenty of competition for Hawaiian routes….
October 2023, before the Alaska takeover news, HAL stock was as low as $3.91 a share. Who would be willing to buy Hawaiian Air Stock at this time?
Perhaps a new President might change the zeitgeist as it is the little people who will suffer most if Hawaiian folds as a result of DOJ policy.
Mahalo and bingo! Doj seems to be bored now they’ve exhausted all the soon to be former administration’s lawfare attacks. Too bad most Hawaiians are still living under stone age. I try to educate them when I’m there, which is dozens of times over last 55 years.
Hawaiian can survive on its own but it will need a leadership change to do so. They can certainly make competitive margins operating to, from, and within Hawaii but they’ve got to have the courage to get their costs under control. I know it will be challenging but with the right leadership it’s doable.
And if the Alaska deal does happen, you can be certain that Alaska will make all of those changes. All of this professional positioning they’ve been doing (bribing) within Hawaii won’t keep them from fixing the same issues that Hawaiian could fix.
How do you know that cost cutting is “doable” for Hawaiian? And that’s only half the equation. There is a very competitive revenue side that allows much larger airlines, like United and Delta, to scale their cost structures in a way Hawaiian cannot match.
If it takes the scale of Delta, United, etc. to cover your fixed costs to operate an airline in Hawaii, then you are right Ruti…Hawaiian can’t survive. Maybe even HA+AS can’t survive if that’s the scale required.
Personally, I don’t believe that scale is needed for a profitable Hawaii-based operation. What you do need is efficiency in the controllable expenses. And that means nothing is off the table, including people changes. In the past 10 years it looks like Hawaiian has only worked the revenue side of the equation and has not materially addressed the cost side. That was all “fine” when fares kept rising and the economy was growing. The pandemic artificially protected Hawaiian from tough people-impacting decisions. There’s no more room to run from those choices.
With Alaska, they will make tough choices. Without Alaska, Hawaiian will either make those choices or have them forced upon them in bankruptcy.
Nope … without the merger, HAL is toast. They’ve been mismanaged for decades and it hasn’t gotten any better.
Labor costs and fuel are the two biggest cost drivers of any airline and reflects on the pricing for your tickets. HAL has paid their staff way out of industry standards of late — make that about a decade … (ask me how I know) … or don’t.
Aloha
Hi DICKIE_D.
Consider us curious. 😊
Aloha.
I can’t see DOJ not approving some kind of merger. Who would a non approval benefit? SWA does not have the capacity at this point to do the same schedule as HA. People who fly between the islands for work would really be compromised.
It’s not like we can drive to work to another island.
Lastly, what sources are you using to come to the conclusion that merger is pau?
Thanks again for the reporting gentleman.
As a wa resident I’m opposed to as ha merger, as it will reduce competition from pnw to hi, where airfares are higher then those in the CA to hi. AS has a very bad record on customer service, where
I waited for days for a call back to chg a tkt for an inbound hi flight.
Feds need to consider if the merger will offer a reasonable standard
of service as a must have for merger approval. AS, espically flying the death plane aka 737 max clearly fails on that score.
If globalization is a good then why not allow foreign carriers buy HA?
USA airlines are among the lowest quality carriers among the developed world. Better service and lower prices are possible with foreign carriers that fly larger planes like a380, 787, 777 would offer passenger comfort.
Your “death plane” comment is applicable to every aircraft when it’s put in the hands of incompetent crews. Everything ever designed has flaws. Everything. One of the primary jobs as pilots is to fly the machine safely to the ground when it misbehaves. Both accident crews failed to do their jobs. Evidenced by the fact that the first Lion Air crew got the plane safely back to the ground with the same malfunction.
There is far too much drama involved in vacationing in Hawaii.
You can say that again.
Given your description of the air travel ecosystem it is hard to understand why the DOJ would put a halt on the merger. What is the potential justification? Is there anything frequent travelers between the main land and Hawaii can do to influence the outcome?
It may sound trite but this is the US DOJ we are talking about and they no longer really need hard reasons to do anything. It is just their current mode of operation.
Based on you posting, I think I know who you are in Realville, Don K. — and I don’t mean to imply you are Duke Kuhanamouku who tried to get my Mom to “go surfing” with him back in the ’50s … too much Aloha and smiles …
But for what it’s worth — I think your call on this subject is right-on, Bruddah’ …
We were there too! Bruddah IZ was pretty fed up with all the politics in hawaii too.
Well,let the merger fail and see its results like Loves bakery on the economy.Its only money and we have plenty of that, Right?
Well? Are we out of bread here in Hawaii? The answer is a big fat No! Regarding Loves, Hawaiian Airlines undercut Aloha Air Cargo and messed up deliveries to the neighbor islands. Greedy Hawaiian Airlines trying to monopolize and take everything. Run Island Air out of business too! Well guess what Hawaiian Airlines? There are always someone out there ready to eat your lunch! Karma’s a bitch!