Uncertainty in 2023 Hawaii Travel Forecast Emerges

Finding Light In Hawaii Travel’s Bleak Outlook For Summer

The writing on the wall isn’t good, with a big cloud hanging over Hawaii travel. This is going to get interesting.

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76 thoughts on “Finding Light In Hawaii Travel’s Bleak Outlook For Summer”

  1. We love Hawaii but airfare deals to French Polynesia, the Cook Islands and Fiji are frequent. We have been to French Polynesia twice in 12 months and the first trip spent half what we would have on any Hawaiian Island. Thos is only a reasonable switch for those who live witjin easy disyamce to SEA, LAX or SAN but..

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  2. As others have commented, I thought this is what Hawaii had been communicating. They want fewer visitors.

    We are coming in May to visit family that lives there. Airfare is up horrendously vs 1 yr ago when we came. If we didn’t have family, we would be going somewhere else.

    Mahalo

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  3. Locals will be happy we are priced out if this continues. Of course that does mean less jobs if hotels aren’t full, also less restaurant reservations, means less staff. Hotel chains will profit as will airlines. Locals not so much

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    1. They don’t want those kinds of jobs, anyway. Until some other industry can be developed here, maybe those happy about no tourism but turned off to hospitality jobs will have to leave the state in pursuit of something better.

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  4. Aloha, Hawaii has been very busy since COVID restrictions were eased. Let’s face it we were the only game in town for Americans and now they can choose to go wherever they want. Europe anyone?I think hotels and other tourist institutions need to get their prices competitive and stop trying to make up for lost revenue during COVID.
    The whole world is adjusting to a new normal and we’ve had pretty rough waters all around, mainland and here in Hawaii. I’m just thankful to live here and since I’m in the tourism business I will continue to welcome people who chose to come here, regardless. Lucky live Kaua’i but if the locals aren’t happy the visitor won’t be either. We all need more Aloha in our lives.

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  5. I believe that while all of the causes for a drop off in travel this summer are contributing I believe that the ‘Revenge” travel issue is the most important. After the Covid halt in travel that allowed families to save up the travel money the summer of 2002 was such a breath of fresh air that costs were not a major issue for the traditional family travel period when school is out. However, that “Revenge” is over. Now it is been there done that. The winter escape from the cold will still be a major draw for “snow birds” or as I call them “whales” here in Hawaii, and for timeshare people who already have paid for their accommodations.

    Lower not raise the costs of a vaction here if we want to recapture the summer!

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  6. Bad PR regarding HI’s new nickel and dime (or nickel and $30/day) policies and locals’ attitudes being less happy about tourists-which must be the islands’ biggest income source-doesn’t help bookings much either, though the now very high prices of air, hotel and car rentals make a luxury cruise look much cheaper, along with Europe and the Carribean.

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  7. I’ve been going to Hawaii for 30 years, usually staying on 2 islands. I always stay at the same hotels but now the rates are more than twice what I paid in 2019. Hawaii travel said recently they only wanted the rich to come because they believe the rich will show more respect for their culture. Well, I’m not rich I always showed great respect for their culture and islands. But I’m not paying the current prices, so they’ll have to sell my room to one of those rich people.

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  8. Fuel prices are going to skyrocket because of OPEC cutting production.

    Also the $50 fee per visitor is ridiculous. With all the other hogh cost people will go elsewhere. Our economy is going to be hurting.

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  9. As someone who just returned hotel prices for most places are just a pure ripe off I was in Kauai for 8 days – ended up renting a two bedroom condo for 30% less than a hotel … what really would prevent me from returning is the $150 a day car rates they can charge what they want no my issue but as for a budget breaker that it. The extra fees taxes and the welcome to Hawaii aloha tax is just silly. As a note airfares we’re for once reasonable … also as a note add 25-30% to anything due to taxes
    Fees and the infamous resort fee.

  10. Well, we’re coming back in September. We are getting great fares from SAN and the hotels are including a fifth night free. So, it works for us.

    One thing I did notice is that all three hotels I looked at have included their “resort fee”, or whatever they call it, in the total. No more listing it as another expense to be paid at the hotel.

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  11. I honestly believe that people are pulling back on discretionary spending in general, and vacations, especially expensive vacations like Hawaii, are one of the first things to go. Between inflation, and now the fear of a recession all of which is being pain of which is being piled on the backs of ordinary working folks, makes them nervous and wanted to pull back. At the very least, they aren’t committing ahead of time to something like that. It will be interesting to see if there are a lot of last minute travelers this summer, rather than those that book way ahead of time. Personally, my wife and I are headed to the Big Island in about a month. Should be interesting to see what’s what when we get there in early May.

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  12. BOH: You write as if you are surprised. Many of your readers here on the ground have been trying to explain this to everybody for months.

    The locals and government don’t want tourists, and have done everything in their power to discourage visitors from coming here, including replacing the Hawaii Tourism Authority with a group who’s main emphasis is convincing the masses that Hawaii was stolen and a return of Hawaii as it was is the goal.

    All the strategies are working, and it’s all by design. This is not just opinion. Those in power have directly told me that this is the strategy. Everything is going according to plan.

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    1. I sort of agree. I think that the plan Is to reduce the number of visitors. Mainly because the current numbers aren’t sustainable. Fewer visitors that spend more seems to be the answer the powers that be in Hawaii are shooting for and maybe they are starting to get what they are looking for. But, in general, I think that the economy has a lot to do with it. The inflation “cures” that are coming at the expense of working people alone are causing those same folks to pull back on discretionary spending, especially expensive vacations like Hawaii.

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    2. Heck, my husband and I arent even taking a local staycation this summer! What we used to pay for kamaaina rates in Kona has almost tripled. To rent a car to get us from Hilo side to Kona airport has tripled from two years ago. So we’re going to Europe too!

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  13. HTA? BAD.
    Mahalo Nui Loa Beat of Hawaii for this thoughtful perspective on what’s coming economically speaking, for Hawai’i.
    Comparing pre-Covid 2019 to anything since, is depressing. We’re never going to go back to “normal”. It’s just going to be a new norm. Sucks so bad.
    People just seem meaner, sadder, more hopeless, frustrated and just all around different.
    Travel to and from the islands is extremely expensive. I’m cutting down my trips anywhere.
    This is a proverbial double edged sword. If we as Americans can’t get along or agree on anything, it’s impossible to work together for the greater good. (Especially relevant to the HTA)
    Let’s all take a deep breath and remember to be kind, be mindful and be thankful.
    Aloha always

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  14. As the owner of a Poipu vacation rental for over 20 years I can only agree with the forecast of a downward trend in Hawaii travel.
    Other owners of vacation rental units have indicated the same drying up of advanced bookings.
    2022 was a banner year but 2023 is shaping up as anything but.
    We are all aware of the usual culprits; record high GE and TA taxes, rental car prices, increasing air fares, etc.In addition we have
    the prevailing attitude of the State government to add special fees for visitors and send a message that we really don’t want tourists to come to the state.
    Another more subtle reason is the diminished resources that tourists usually enjoy such as dining and retail options.
    Many restaurants and shops still closed.

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  15. Hotel Fees , Visitor Fees, Person Fees, Frown Fees, Vacation Fees, Breathing Fees, Wake Up Fees, Sleeping 😴 Fees, Towel Fees, Drink Fees, Beach Fees, Flower 🌺 Fees, Pineapple Fees, Sand Fees, Sun 🌞 Fees, Cloud Fee, Malasada’s Fee… get the drift … 🙄

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  16. Excuse me, but isn’t this what Hawaiians want. I know for me, I don’t know if I will ever come back. And that makes me sad. I’ve always respected and interacted with the Hawaiian culture while visiting. Very sad…

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  17. Mahalo for keeping us posted on travel trends.

    Personally, I was looking at booking a Turo because our usual rental company was nearly $1k for 9 days in Maui in May. Just looked a week ago and our usual rental company was actually nearly $100 cheaper than Turo and less than half of what they wanted a month ago. Certainly they must have noticed weakened demand to drop that much.

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