Hawaii visitors are being told that another 10,000 vacation rentals could disappear from the market. It sounds decisive and simple, even as the reality on the ground remains far more complicated than the number suggests. Governor Josh Green used his State of the State address this week to make this bold claim:
“We will deliver at least another 10,000 new homes this way,” Green said, promising that short-term vacation rentals would be turned into long-term housing for local families rather than absentee investors. The number, however, is not supported by anything currently in Hawaii law, policy, or even planning. The gap between the claim and reality is worth investigating.
The math behind the 10,000 vacation rentals.
Right now, the only place in Hawaii where a large-scale vacation rental phaseout is actually being pursued is Maui. Maui’s Bill 9, signed into law late in 2025, is the only concrete mechanism that could convert Hawaii vacation rentals into long-term housing in significant numbers. At most, albeit unlikely, the law could apply to 6,208 apartment-zoned units, with conversion deadlines of January 1, 2029, for West Maui rentals and January 1, 2031, for those in South Maui.
Even if every one of those units converted, Maui alone would still fall well short of the Governor’s 10,000 claim. But that is not what is actually happening.
Maui County is already moving to exempt most units.
Within weeks of Bill 9 becoming law, the Maui County Council took steps that could dramatically reduce how many units are ever converted. On January 7, the council voted 8-1 to advance proposed H-3 and H-4 hotel zoning districts to the two involved planning commissions for review. Those zoning changes could allow approximately 4,519 of the 6,208 affected units to continue operating legally as vacation rentals.
If that rezoning is approved, the number of Maui units actually converting to long-term housing drops to roughly 1,500. At present, that is the path the council is most actively pursuing.
The commissions cannot even currently schedule hearings on the rezoning due to already full agendas. Whatever they recommend when they begin to address this will return to the full council for additional votes. This process is likely to drag on for months at best and possibly years.
Lawsuits further complicate any timeline.
At the same time, Bill 9 is already getting tied up in court. A lawsuit filed by Kaanapali Royal on December 19 challenged Bill 9 as an unconstitutional taking, although no court rulings or injunctions have been issued to date. A second class-action lawsuit has already followed, raising similar claims. Both cases argue that eliminating long-standing legal vacation rentals without compensation violates property rights.
Those lawsuits will not resolve quickly. Even if the county ultimately prevails, the litigation alone stretches uncertainty well beyond the deadlines implied in the Governor’s remarks.
If the lawsuits succeed, the number of converted units could drop to zero. If they fail and rezoning does not pass, Maui could see all 6,208 units convert. But that is the least likely outcome based on current council actions.
The rest of Hawaii is not following Maui’s lead.
Outside of Maui, there is no comparable policy in motion. Oahu, Kauai, and the Big Island all have vacation rental restrictions in place, but none are advancing new phaseouts that would add thousands of housing units. No county has produced any legislation on a scale needed to make up the difference.
Depending on what happens with Maui’s vacation rental rezoning and lawsuits, the Governor’s 10,000 number could require between 4,000 and 8,500 additional units to come from other islands. There are no publicly known plans, bills, or timelines to produce those numbers. The governor saying that the state will support counties is not the same thing as counties having vehicles in place to support.
What this means for visitors booking Maui condos.
For travelers, the immediate impact remains limited. Maui still has over 12,500 legal vacation rentals entirely outside the scope of Bill 9, along with hotels and timeshares. Most popular resort areas, including Wailea, Kihei, and Kaanapali, sit largely within uncontested hotel-zoned districts and continue operating as they have for decades.
Uncertainty only affects a narrower slice of repeat visitors who stay in apartment-zoned condos, many of whom return year after year. Some owners may choose to exit the market early rather than wait for deadlines or deal with these issues. Others may hang on, betting that any rezoning or court rulings will preserve their ability to legally rent.
As conversion deadlines approach in 2029 and 2031, far from now, inventory could tighten at the fringes. What visitors will not see anytime soon is the governor’s 10,000 vacation rentals vanishing statewide.
The absentee owner argument: real, but incomplete.
The governor framed his remarks around local families versus absentee investors, and on Maui, the ownership data supports that at one level. The great majority of the units affected by Bill 9 are owned by people who do not live on the island.
What that framing leaves out is what matters to visitors booking trips up to years in advance. Ownership status alone does not convert housing or remove vacation rentals from the market. What actually determines whether rentals disappear is county votes, zoning decisions, and what the courts ultimately allow.
That distinction is why nothing will change overnight for travelers, and why even long-term uncertainty remains. Councilmember Tom Cook summed it up more accurately when he said housing policy must be balanced with economic reality. That balance is now being negotiated in Maui County, and it has not resolved.
Governor’s goal is not a delivered outcome.
Governor Green’s 10,000-unit promise may be something he hopes for. At best, it reflects a future he wants counties to create. At worst, it overstates what current policies can deliver. Right now, the only place doing anything like what he is seeking is Maui, and even there, the final number depends on rezoning decisions and court rulings that will not be settled for years. The rest of the state has not yet entered into his math.
For visitors, the takeaway is simpler. Nothing will change all at once, and nothing close to 10,000 units is likely to disappear anytime soon, if ever.
What happens next will be decided slowly, county by county, in hearings and courtrooms, not at the podium. Whether that reality matches what Hawaii visitors, residents, or lawmakers expect is now very much an open question.
Photo Credit: Beat of Hawaii at Waikiki Beach.
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We all know what Green is made up of! Outside, middle-income investors can’t afford to give up their day job and move to the island to take on a local job while supporting the debt of their tiny slice of paradise. So to keep the votes coming, he knows that only the locals vote. He campaigns from both sides of his mouth 1) I am helping locals by forcing out these 335 sq foot units for the local families to live long term (as if that is what they want, they just don’t know they will be paying 1000/mo in HOA dues and another 2000 to cover the cost of the mortgage that the middle class investor is in debt for) 2) Now he is got the hotel money flowing in to sponser his bull crp to only fill up the 1000/night hotel appeasing the lobbiest and fill the pockets of billionairs. The entire thing is smoke and mirrors. We all know what will happen to our beautiful town of Lahaina. It was not over at the time of the fire – that was just the beginning. Time will make everyone give up and forget.
Green is clueless. Most of these ‘outside investors’ are people that visited Hawaii, liked it so much they bought a place they could come back to whenever they wanted and realized the only way it would be available and affordable would be to short term rent it when they weren’t there. They also wanted more than a $500+ a night hotel room with a mini fridge with an $8 bottle of water.
Like Bissen, Green is living in a made up fantasy world. The problem with housing is the affordability issue, caused by the ever increasing wealth gap in this country, more than actual supply. Look at Maui. Bissen demonized STRs and all condos here are down in value at least 30%! No one is buying them even now that they’re more affordable!
Lots of sales lately in the condo market, so the bottom is here. But you are right, it’s not locals who are buying them.
Please rebuild Lahaina!!!
What in the heck is going on??years later handful of homes rebuilt!!!
The whole town should have been done by now!!
This “condo grab” is a clear violation of the 4th Amendment of the Contstitution. It is really that simple. Perhaps these government officials should take a remedial law course.
Vote them out!
Hawaiians will not get those houses because no one but the rich will be able to pay for housing. Short term rentals are not made, equip to house people long term so those properties will not have to be updated, rebuilt etc for long term housing. Getting rid of the short-term rentals will now cause the taxes to go up $$$$$ even more, it is only a scam to make people pay the extremely overpriced hotel-the hotels/governor are the ones behind getting rid of short terms rentals and the Hawaiians are going to pay dearly for it. long time business are being shut down for more hotels that 99% of the population cant afford, visitors never going to return to the way over priced for nothing island, economy and jobs will crash, hotels will bring in their own of island workers cheaper. the governor is destroying Hawaii, not helping it.
There seems to be lots of controversy but it seems to be quite good for us I come over there with me and my family for 10 days generally I spent about 4,000 for accommodation and then there’s about a $1,000 in taxes I just a place it was a rental but as soon as their lease was up I got rid of the tenants and now I don’t have to pay that $1,000 in taxes I never knew I’d paid so thank you so much government for stirring it up and from the looks of it you’re going to raise the prices on homes over there and I expressed to my friends they’re even using the places so we’re getting more Hawaii time at a lower price and very little taxes now I can’t believe it more margaritas and my ties instead of taxes it’s fantastic keep it up and I’ll be back in another 3 months oh I forgot to mention now I can keep a car there I don’t even have to pay taxes or rent a car here in the future that’s for next year all good thanks for reducing the prices on vacationing
If the governor wants affordable housing for locals, that’s great. However, why impose that idea off the backs of STR owners? Let the state of Hawaii build those 10,000 new houses for the homeless at Hawaii’s own expense. Let the governor put the state’s money where Green’s mouth is!
The widening wealth gap and increased building and labor costs guarantee there will never truly be “affordable” housing again without higher pay. That dream ended in the early 1970s. The handout crowd, like Lahaina Strong, and Bissen, who is pandering to them, are under the mistaken delusional belief that outlawing STRs will magically create more affordable housing. Note the word Affordable here. The HOAs and Insurance fees alone guarantee that these tiny places near the beach will never be affordable unless our clueless government officials expect owners to subsidise those who can’t afford the price of admission. Resident supporters cried at the Maui Bill 9 testimony hearings, packed with red shirts wanting a handout, held when those of us who work couldn’t attend, for the old days when they could just make a fair living and afford a place to live. We’d all like that but you’ll have to turn back the clocks forty years for those dreams to come true.
It looks like Josh has found the perfect scapegoat – short term rentals.
While Honolulu welcomes new hotels and timeshare buildings every month, Josh campaigns against STR’s – and rakes in huge campaign contributions from true believers.
Meanwhile, he doesn’t actually have to do anything – just use the money to get reelected.
Why doesn’t Green build new housing for Hawaiian residents and leave STR’S for visitors? It’s a win win for everyone. Follow the money!
Gov. Green cannot force a property owner to rent to anyone, so his plan will go nowhere. So how did all the Hawaii tourism-control drama get here in the first place? Simple: Hawaii vastly over-regulates & over-taxes businesses, who then never come here in the first place. Then, what’s left is tourism & more tourism, because the sugar & pineapple plantations got outsourced to the Philippines, Costa Rica, & Thailand, all nice places with lower labor costs. All the while, random places like Austin, TX, made every effort to encourage high-tech, low polluting computer-based businesses, making it now the “Silicon Valley” of the South, with tons of great jobs. Meanwhile, Hawaii discourages new business growth, except for more tourism. Here we are.
So sad, your Governor is as bad as mine in CA………. Nothing but “miss information” comes out of their mouths !
Aloha,
So, why is “misinformation” not called lies? That is what it means…
Mahalo
Mahalo for this article, BOH. I’m in Maui and can vouch for everything you’ve said.
Even though nothing has yet changed, and is unlikely to for many years, if ever, the uncertainty is frustrating for STR owners and dependent businesses. I guess we are stuck with that, though. Decisions must operate in Maui time.
Maybe Governor Green is talking about illegal rentals to arrive at his 10,000 figure. I remember he stated in a past speech that there are tens of thousands of illegal rentals in Hawaii. I don’t believe he is correct, but maybe that’s what he believes, and that he can somehow go after those rentals.
The State and County desire affordable housing for local employees and their families. Reality gets in the way when many of these STRs they want to convert would cost renters $5000 to $8000 per month in rental fees. There will be a significant portion of STR owners who will not sell and will not lease. They, us included, feel the county is trying to force a decision upon us. Sell or long term lease. A third option is doing nothing. Not short or long term rental. Not selling. Keeping it as a 2nd home. Only let friend use the unit. This will cause a lowering of property taxes with this change and less tourism dollars. Lose lose for the county and state.
That’s exactly what I did I just bought a house that was a rental and when that lease was up just recently I had those people move out and now I didn’t realize it all the money and taxes are saving we would come for about 10 days and our hotel tax I guess was close to $1,000 now we don’t even have to pay that which is fantastic thanks to the government again then I didn’t even realize that car rental I have a garage or carport here I can leave a car I don’t even need to rent a car in the future so that’s next year’s addition to our Maui house it’s just a little house there even our friends are even using it and they’re excited because again they’re not having to pay for hotels and hotel tax so it’s fantastic I get to pay less taxes less of everything and spend more time in Maui go go Maui love it
Punctuation and spell check would make these comments much easier to read while giving the writer a tad more credibility.
Exactly what will happen, look at places like Aspen. Tons of second or even third homes sit around empty most of the time. Their solution and many resort towns is to create employee housing/deed restricted properties that have employment stipulations, ie must work 30hrs/week. They really need to look at what as worked elsewhere and come up with a viable solution. These current policies are going to be a lose lose for everyone other than 2nd or 3rd vacation home owners.
Bravo josh green . Hw has succeeded in killing economy in Hawaii and now he continues to kill tourism…He Will Not Be Reelected .
People need a choice besides expensive hotels.
The people needing the choices don’t vote, though. And, unfortunately, the voters don’t realize how dependent these islands are on tourism. The types of people that spew the governor’s rhetoric keep getting elected, over and over again.
He may not be re-elected but with the effectively one party rule in HI, his ideological twin will take the reins. Uncertain that the other party could do better but with the present striking out so often how about bringing another batter to the plate?
I totally agree with you, but never underestimate the ability of incumbents in this State to get reelected, much less a serious primary challenge in the first place.
How many units have corporate ownership? Is the governor tapping into the rump’s statement + numbers?
I’m curious how many people hear the governor spreading the “10,000” number and assume it’s somehow already decided. Nothing could be further from the truth.
This, like most of his ilk, are just blowing smoke to sound like he’s actually going to accomplish something. Ultimately, it’s all about the politics of envy, gotta punish those homeowners instead of planning and building new ‘affordable’ housing. When his grandiose confiscation plan fails, he’ll blame everyone but himself.
The uncertainty is the hardest part. Owners don’t know what to do, and neither do repeat visitors. Everyone is caught in this nonsense that’s quickly going nowhere.
I don’t think many visitors realize how much zoning and legal stuff has to occur before any rentals actually disappear. This simply isn’t going to be happening anytime soon and the governor’s suggestion that this is a done reality is just wrong at multiple levels.
Oh that’s not true. Nearly everything from just south of Honokowai park, north to Fleming beach is zoned residential.
Look it up. The state made that residential zoning available for resort I guess 30-40 years ago and now are taking it back.
Don’t get me wrong I disagree with all this but that’s what is happening.
If Maui ends up with 1,500 conversions instead of 6,000, that’s a very different story than what’s being sold by this politician. So what was his point – just to discourage visitors?
The key takeaway for me is that nothing changes overnight. Not even with that statement. That’s not how it’s being presented publicly.
This feels like another case of a soundbite getting way ahead of reality. Maui isn’t even resolved, let alone anything changing for the rest of the state.
I don’t see how they get anywhere near 10,000 without lawsuits dragging on literally forever. The math just isn’t there and the governor’s hype about it doesn’t help Hawaii.
As long as the state and county politicians keep believing and trying to sell to their constituents the fantasy that these STVRs they hope to outlaw will all magically become affordable housing units, this will drag on forever. It’s a disservice to the local people who truly need housing. Empty promises and claims do nothing and create no affordable housing.
I keep hearing these big numbers thrown around, but this makes me realize how little of it is actually settled or changing. Ridiculous posturing given the reality of the situation.
Such a control issue. People owning properties being told “how to use them”.
This will not solve the problem.
It will cause angry feelings in the many people it will effect.
Hawaii is governed by law—not political campaigns, slogans, or executive threats. The Governor has no authority to seize or extinguish lawful property rights and reassign them to another group without due process and just compensation. That is not housing policy. That is arbitrary power. We rejected kings once. We reject them again. No Kings.
We all know the governor is an idiot. He makes these statements with no data to really back it up. The result will be that hundreds if not thousands of property owners will sue the county. The county will have to back pedal because they won’t want to face the mounting lawsuits. The other issue is that absentee owners are only a small portion, the other issue is that a lot of these properties were never designed for full-time living. And the biggest issue in reality is that this is all done by the hotel lobbyists. The only winner in this whole thing are the hotels willing to pay huge sums of money and passing that expense on to their visitors. Shame on you governor shame on you, Josh Green.
It is a tight race between Bissen and Green as to which is the bigger idiot. My money is on Green, but Bissen is putting up impressive results for a rookie politician. And don’t forget that Maui County has a history of wasting massive amounts of money fighting lawsuits that are known losers (they fought injection wells to the SCOTUS) just because…I never quite understood why. For the county, $20M was the price to pay to prove a point they didn’t prove and had to pay the fines in the end and fix the problem anyway. It is hard to see a different outcome now.
What about the many “Exchange houses” where each family goes to each others house for vacations. Arranged thru an internet site for cheaper vacations.
I’m not an attorney, but I believe exchanging properties for vacation purposes is perfectly legal. The vacation properties used for exchanges are not considered STRs, since there is no money changing hands.
So, if STR owners were to exchange their homes rather than rent them out, no local housing would be created nor accommodations taxes collected for those homes. Not what the government hoped to achieve.
I think, if forced by law, most owners would consider exchanging their properties a much more acceptable option than renting the properties out long-term.
That’s what my Mom did as my sisters & I were growing up. We lived in CA and would swap homes with someone in Hawaii each summer. That was in the and 70’s & 80’s. I’m so very grateful I got to know Hawaii then. As everyone keeps reiterating, Hawaii is, sadly, Not the same now.
Das an off island owner since 2004, My guests have brought in so much finances between business taxes, spending money on food, excursions, job opportunities.. etc. if Maui had a industry that could support itself other than tourism please tell me what it is? Do not bite the hands that feed you
Too late!
On Oahu, 10,000 units were already shut down or converted to 30-90 day minimum rentals? It would seem illogical to shut down short term rentals in resort zones. That is the purpose of resort zones. To keep tourists out of residential areas.