While Hawaii has continued to outperform all expectations with the return of travelers following Covid, recent data from the State showed that overall visitors continued to increase in a trend that has continued for 24 straight months, a significant downward trend in a key Hawaii market ominously entered the picture.
Trouble brewing for Hawai travel – West Coast market dips unexpectedly.
This is the most important domestic market for Hawaii travel. The news from the US West is different now. Arrivals from the western US, while still up 20% from April 2019, have dropped 10% compared with last year. But a trend we talked about this week is clear. While visitors are still very keen on travel, they look further afield for vacations.
We suggest it is heading in two directions, both closer to home, including drive-to and fly-in vacations, and towards more international travel, as we’ve recently discussed. By comparison, the relatively small eastern US market was only down just over 1% compared with last year.
Hawaii relies exclusively on mainland visitors without substantive return of international travel.
The lack of clear indication of when international travel volume will return to normal, plus the sudden unexpected decline in visitors from the western US, are objective indications that Hawaii travel will face headwinds ahead. That concern is confirmed by UHERO, the State’s economic research group. However, they are more optimistic than we are about a near-term international recovery and said, “Further international market recovery will sustain visitor numbers.” That while acknowledging that the return of Japanese visitors isn’t as straightforward, with less than 30% of average arrivals in April and spending down some 65%. We see it taking another one to two years to recover the Hawaii international visitor market fully. Canada doesn’t fare much better, with a 31% visitor decline since pre-Covid.
A drop in tourism better aligns with Hawaii’s lack of infrastructure.
Visitors outnumber locals seven to one. That puts a strain on every one since Hawaii has not invested heavily in its infrastructure to support the higher demand for tourism. You may have felt it too when visiting Hawaii after Covid. Transportation options are limited, so our roads and highways that have more vehicle traffic, including rental cars, than they can handle. When trying to get into restaurants, there’s not always adequate staffing to accommodate everyone. Park and beach restrooms need to be renovated, and famous beaches are overcrowded. The natural resources of Hawaii need to be preserved for future generations, which is one reason why traffic between Hanalei and Kee Beach is limited to a specific number of visitors and cars daily. Then there are the airports that should be updated to handle increased traffic, but never are. The list is long, and there doesn’t seem to be a plan to address these issues.
If you visited Hawaii after Covid, did you see a lack of infrastructure to meet the higher demand for tourism?
As noted in our articles and your comments, Hawaii travel costs are simply through the roof.
As a result, how much visitors spend continues to climb out of necessity. In April, overall visitor spending was up 8% compared with last year’s period and up 31% compared with 2019. That even as visitors try to put the brakes on Hawaii vacation costs. But west coast visitors changed it up and spent 7.1% less in April than last year simply by pulling back.
We don’t think those state-provided numbers even tell the whole picture. Case in point: One of BOH’s editors needs to go to a business meeting in Kapolei on Oahu. There are three hotels to choose from, with the least expensive being Hampton Inn. The lowest rate for the Hampton Inn, including all taxes and fees, was over $500 a night! That’s insulting.
Changed Visitor Habits Crush Hawaii Travel Outlook
Apr 2023 - HL
My family no longer considers Maui in our future vacation plans. 3 weeks on Maui in March of this year showed us how everything had increased past our wildest dreams. We will stay on the mainland and enjoy the beaches here. Thanks for fantastic vacations in the past.
would love help with reservation information from Raleigh No.Carolina from
There is an obvious reason for this. This is the first year I am unable to book west coast to Hawaii using Avios awards on Alaska airlines. I’m surprised no one has covered this travel topic online.
I might add that the few people getting on here complaining about the “locals” should consider the many many visitors who have a wonderful interaction with the locals the encounter. The Hawaiian people are and always have been awesome people that are responsible for introducing the world to Aloha.
As the saying goes…if you meet a jerk, you’ve met a jerk, if you meet a lot of jerks then you are the jerk. Comparing the locals as somehow lazy and “dependent on government handouts” speaks volumes about you and nothing about reality.
Yogi Berra summed it up well…”nobody goes there anymore because it’s so crowded” I do know someone at an airline that said people’s booking habits noticeably changed post Covid. More passengers are now in the habit of making reservations at the last minute then before. I think that may be skewing the projections a little but the bottom line is Hawaii has to reinvent it’s tourism industry somewhat as the post Covid boom proved.
Aloha Rob+Jeff, So as this thread continues, more and more people are coming back from their vacations over there feeling very dissatisfied and disappointed. It’s going to be felt by the economy and the locals who depend on tourists for their jobs. It looks to be a low travel destination for many people. Especially long time returnees. It will be interesting to see how the new tourist board markets the islands as a choice destination to visit. Hope all is well with you both. Have a great summer.I do give thanks for my Hawaiian miles although I am being careful spending them for a trip there. Warm regards.
Maui will not get another dime from this family.
Just got back from our 2 week vacation at the Whaler.
To many new charges and new tax’s along with outrageous prices.
My husband and myself loved Maui.
Our favorite vacation Spot.
Not anymore.
We have a timeshare in Princeville. Our family has gone to Hawaii yearly since 1994. We will be there again in June. If we had not booked units and all of us hadn’t coordinated the dates we probably would just chuck it this year. We are paying more than we have ever paid to fly from LAX to Kauai. The flights and flight times are awful,the flight options are confusing. Our flight times have been changed twice requiring lengthy calls to rebook different flights. Rental cars are still steep. Excursions are so outrageously high. We will all have fun together bbqing our own meals, making our own drinks, hanging at the pool,beach,and hiking. No yearly sunset sail, or must do everytime we go excursions for us this year!
Hawaii hotel and condo lodging has priced itself out of reason for the repeat west coast FIT visitor.
International travel is expensive but currently more competitive and exotic than getting ripped-off by lodging operators trying to recoup pandemic losses in one year.
-Paul R., CA resident.
110 Hawaii r/t trips for business/pleasure
Those here saying that the condo owner’s are trying to “recoup pandemic losses in one year”…I don’t really think that’s reason. I think they started raising their prices to compensate for the rise in inflation, the government raising the property tax rate for condo owners (they and timeshares pay a higher rate than everyone else, including hotels), and other pressures.
People are paying the prices, so I don’t see it as “greedflation”. It’s simply what the market will bear. Many condo owners are just mom-and-pop operations trying to hold onto their properties, or generate much-needed retirement income. They are not Evil Corporations – look towards the hotels to find that.
I enjoy reading Beat of Hawaii greatly. It is not surprising that travel is falling off from the West coast and Eastward, there is an emigration of families, and people with disposable income, out of the West Coast states to FL, TX, TN, NC,SC, etc.. Also the purchasing power of the dollar not just in Hawaii has diminished almost 35%-40% since the 2020 lockdowns and trillions of currency was created and Introduced (about 40% of currency in circulation today was created and introduced as Federal stimuli payments since 2020). Also energy/fuel in have quadrupled, worldwide, thus travel from the West Coast to Hawaii naturally will fall and lodging rates will permanently increase. VTY
Governor wants more high end tourists. That would make a $200 dinner benefit one corporate business. Is that better than 8 others that spend $25 each that benefits 8 locations, many locally owned? Same with rooms, shopping, etc. Less traffic, but also less money going to the shops trying to make a living. Not sure this has been thought through very well.
Good point!
Maybe they figure 1 rich person will spend as much as 8 “normal” people, even in the stores. They will buy the bazillion dollar artwork in the galleries, go to eat at the gourmet restaurants, hire personal chefs to cook for them. No tee shirts for the rich!
A lot of people are still coming to Hawaii if the other story about TSA is any indication. The decline in numbers is likely a statistic comparing the surge in COVID revenge travel that occurred and inflated mainland travelers from SWA flooding the market with intro fares. Now that”s on the decline and International traffic is poised to return. That’s all good for Hawaii. Hawaii will not flourish as a destination for the stereotypic SWA traveler. We need a mix of mainland and international travelers
We’re not billionaires but we will be returning this Fall, as usual. I live in CA and our friends are returning at pretty much their usual rate. Europe is a total mess right now so we’ve taken it off the schedule for the near future. The pandemic definitely shook things up I suppose we’ll just have to wait and see what choices travelers make in the future.
None of this is particularly odd. Large corporations cash in on others’ misfortunes, it’s the American Way.
How is Europe a total mess? Just wondering as I’m going in a couple of months.
My son and his family just got home from 6 wonderful weeks in Europe. All was terrific. Flights, trains, B and B / hotels, entertainment. Bars, restaurants, Tourist sights, and free to visit parks were all well done at a reasonable cost.
The only negative was they found Switzerland was the most expensive of the 6 countries visited.
They will return nest year instead of a planned trip to Hawaii.
Just returned from ten days in France in early May. A trip that was scheduled for April 2020 and covid hit. We had a great time, everything was opened, people were everywhere, and no masking requirements. We were initially concerned about the strikes due to the extension of the retirement age, but we saw nothing and it was great. I highly recommend going to France right now.
If people continue to pay these overinflated prices nothing will change and prices will continue to go up. The condo I rented last year is 30% higher this year. Really? Did costs go up anywhere near 30%? It’s called Greedflation and the only way to bring it down is to go elsewhere.
Agree, that is why so many of us will go to other great sun locations!
Our travel agency has seen a drop in our Hawaii bookings probably due to the high price of accommodations this year.
And the locals attitudes
We complained about too many tourists 2+yrs before COVID, outnumbered 7:1. Try put 7x the # of ppl in Your car or home; we deal w/that Daily commuting to/from work, at the beach, grocery shopping etc. It’s not that we don’t want Any tourists; just not such large #’s of them. When COVID struck we had the roads, stores, beaches almost entirely to ourselves again – I say almost, as some still managed to arrive even in the height of lockdown, traipsing around unmasked, uncaring about the limited capacity of hospitals & available essential workers. Tourists do things daily that cost HI hugely (ocean rescues, car wrecks & gawking, brush fires), leave mounds of trash for the landfill, harm the reefs & more. Come,And be respectful to our islands
We are permanent Residents in Banff National Park in Canada. Yes we get crowded with tourists sharing our beautiful home. We welcome them and invite them back as they for the park upkeep and my kids University tuition, my food etc.
Try Canada for your vacation. A much shorter flight as well.
You will notice that Hawaii is now pricing itself out of reach for normal people and families.
Flights, Hotels, Restaurants, and rental cars. The cost has escalated to a breaking point.
Think about this, without visitors we have no economy. Think about how things were during the Covid times.
People won’t have jobs!
Don’t expect this trend to discontinue as Hawaii has done a silly thing: Committed to changing itself to a “premium” destination and one wonders when it will be competitive again, particularly with the High cost of government always being a major factor in the economy for many decades. Secondly, why wouldn’t the adventurous traveler want to try new territory? Hawaii is totally predictable now.
We’ve all seen this coming for many years. Rememerbn when the Big Five at least contributed to a somewhat diversified economy? HI tourism (a one pony show) may go the same way although we hope not.
As always, balancing local and aina needs with tourism demand is not easy. Everyone will be pissed off about something at some time.
If only we could keep in mind the big picture: human population growth throughout the world is causing all kinds of problems. Too many humans are strangling mother nature, while increasing competition and prices for depleting resources.
Right you are Kaleo. What makes Hawaii special is it has and should be a melting pot destination of travelers from all over the world. The current situation is reflective of the surge of SWA traffic and resulted in Hawaii getting flooded with Covid revenge travelers. Hopefully it will find a good balance of tourism not destroying the infrastructure.
I had friends come to visit from the east coast. They stayed at the Marriott at KoOlina. They were very disturbed by the amount of homeless and the amount of dirty trash everywhere. They said it was disappointing.
Aloha, It seems like the hotels were heading towards higher rates and fees before covid and were trying to get the vrbos and Air BNBs out of business. Now that the catastrophe is passing they are making up for lost revenue. As a 16-year resident of Kauai, the cost of living has gone through the roof. The hotels never seem to learn their lessons but they are for the most part corporate extensions meaning it is the headquarters setting the prices not locals who determine the prices. Room rates are ridiculous. And no, we do want visitors but we do not exist for their exploitation. Cheap rooms only mean locals make less money servicing those rooms.
My family and I have been going to Hawaii for years. Prices are up and so is overcrowding. We are also disappointed that Alaska air is not leaving out of Oakland anymore( so much easier than San Francisco). This year for the first time in 17 years we are skipping Hawaii . We’re going to the Cook Islands instead. If it’s going to be expensive and difficult to go to Hawaii from the West coast , then it’s time to expand our horizons.
Have The Governor and all the Mayors read all this remarks, and the Governor wanted to charge green fees to all visitors? $50.00 each person?
This is actually not as bad as I expected. YTD figures are much better this year than 2022, which is surprising. Maybe the April YOY is a blip.
Transportation infrastructure is, in my opinion, one of the biggest issues. A more regular bus service from Kahului Airport to the west at Kapalua and return is a big issue. I have not checked but regular service to the Wailea area too.
I’m flying over tomorrow(fri) delta from lax, flight is Full. and my car rental from thrifty is $359, incl tax etc.I stay with a friend in kailua. lucky me I guess. $500 for Hampton inn. wowsa. last visit, really, was March 2020 just as everything shut down. I AM happy to be returning.
Mary
While I don’t like to see any market drop for the sake of this economy; It would be a great thing for locals to breath easier with their daily commutes. It would also possibly help rates come down a bit, so that I could come to visit again.
Aloha Rob+Jeff. I think that you both have such a great website with so many followers, that the responses from readers have really affected people’s decision to travel to Hawaii. They are taking seriously the high costs of travelling there. A lot of commenters have decided to skip Hawaii for the foreseeable future as it’s become too expensive. They are choosing to go elsewhere and find that it is a better choice for them all the way around. It really is sad for the longtime lovers of the islands to be priced out of not visiting anytime soon. It’s a magical beautiful place with so much to offer. What will happen is in the hands of the “people that make the rules and the prices”. Hopefully they will see the decline of visitors cash input. Ma
Isnt this the objective of Hawaiian residents? So screw the mainland visitors (except the billionaires) and bring on the international visitors? Whatever. Caribbean and Europe here I come.
I am afraid you are right.
Kay, the billionaries are not that warmely welcomed in Hawai’i. They are closing access trails to the beaches, just as they do in Malibu. They have run away millionaires. One of the one percent publicly stated that “you know what traffic is like on Kaua’i. We do not need any more affordabble housing.”
Laarry Ellison ownes ninty eight percent of Lana’i. No longer is he seen as a protector, but as one who is going to have things his way. The billionaries do not care about the thoughts or concerns of the middle class. Why should they, we will always puurchase from their compamnies.
Lol the European travelers are way down now too
Mainland visitors have decreased probably due to the rising or excess costs recently added to the parks, sights in Oahu. Its the inconvenience of booking them online, and just the whole infrastructure deters visitors, despite high costs of hotels, etc.
The west coast visitor drop might be due to everyone leaving the west coast! Especially California, they are leaving in droves.
138,400 people left, down to 38.94 million for all of 2022. 2023 is about the same. Not exactly leaving in Droves.
Many of them moved to Hawaii!