Maui’s condo market just nosedived, with average sales prices plunging 44% in a single year. But this is not only a real estate story. It is a warning sign for travelers, as the future of vacation rentals on the island becomes increasingly uncertain.
What is behind the condo market collapse?
According to the Realtors Association of Maui, the median condo price fell 35% compared with the same period last year, dropping to $650,000 from $1 million. The average sales price fell even further, down 44% to $1.14 million. Inventory has surged to a 15-month supply, a level not seen in more than a decade. The number of sales is down 26% year-to-date.
On the surface, these numbers might suggest an opportunity for buyers. In reality, they reveal a market paralyzed by doubt. Sellers are reluctant to list, owners are unsure whether their condos will remain legal as rentals, and travelers are increasingly unwilling to commit to bookings. The steep drop in both median and average prices is a clear indication of how unsettled the market has become.
Nothing will change for visitors overnight.
Even under the current proposal, the phase-out of thousands of transient vacation rentals is designed to unfold over the upcoming years, and some observers say it could stretch to five years or longer once the inevitable legal challenges are factored in. For visitors, this means the accommodations landscape may appear unchanged in the short term, but the uncertainty is already clearly shaping the decisions made today.
How visitors are affected.
For decades, Maui’s condo market has been the backbone of family vacations and repeat visits. Condos offered space for groups, kitchens for extended stays, and prices that made Hawaii accessible to middle-income travelers. With condo values collapsing and regulations tightening, that model is under threat.
This shift mirrors what we observed in our earlier report, “Maui Visitors Are Quietly Saying It: We’re Not Coming Back,” which generated nearly 700 reader responses. While the reasons varied, the themes were consistent. Visitors are weary of nonstop cost increases layered on top of resort fees, parking charges, and new taxes. Many now hesitate to book rentals they fear may not be available by the time their vacation arrives, even if that concern proves entirely unfounded. For some, the uncertainty itself, combined with the ongoing controversy, has become a tipping point.
The steep drop in condo values is a direct reflection of that hesitation. It is not only buyers who are holding back. Visitors are, too.
Hotels may dominate Maui’s future.
If Maui proceeds with phasing out nearly 7,000 transient vacation rentals, the balance of visitor lodging will tilt sharply toward hotels and resort-zoned condos. That would mean fewer affordable choices for families, less flexibility for groups, and heavier reliance on high-end resort properties concentrated in West and South Maui.
For travelers, the practical impact is already clear. Booking earlier is becoming important as resort supply remains limited. Higher rates are likely to be the outcome if competition dwindles. And the familiar home-away-from-home condo experience that once defined Maui vacations may soon be much more elusive.
A fragile visitor economy.
Single-family homes on Maui have held steady at around $1.3 million, but those properties have never been a significant part of the visitor lodging equation. What matters is the condo sector, and that is where the disruption sits.
Maui’s visitor economy is fragile. It is not only about fire recovery. It is about the layering of rising costs, regulatory uncertainty, and shifting sentiment that together create a new level of risk. The collapse in condo prices is not an isolated number. It is another warning sign that travelers are already rethinking their plans.
What travelers should do now.
For anyone planning a Maui trip in the coming years, resort-zoned properties and hotels remain the most straightforward choice, since they are not directly affected by the proposed phase-out. Thousands of Minatoya List condos are also expected to continue operating, even as legal battles play out. What matters most to visitors is understanding that the rules are still in flux and could take three to five years or longer to be fully resolved.
With that in mind, flexibility is key. Choosing accommodations with clear cancellation policies provides protection in case of any sudden changes. Booking ahead remains essential, as some owners may hesitate to list their units while the market sorts itself out. And while many travelers will continue to visit Maui, others may explore different islands or destinations until there is more clarity.
Looking ahead.
Maui’s condo market just sent a clear message. Uncertainty has consequences. The island’s visitors, once among the most loyal in the world, are rethinking their plans. Whether Maui can steady itself before those quiet goodbyes become permanent is now the island’s defining challenge.
How are these changes affecting your own Maui travel plans, and do you see yourself booking the island again or looking elsewhere?
Photo Credit: Beat of Hawaii at Kapalua, Maui.
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Another clear case of you get what you vote for…good luck Maui residents, things are about to get much worse economcally for you.
Been coming to Maui for 42 years. Less affordable every year. Used to rent a condo and pay a flat fee. Now there is resort fee, which adds nothing I didn’t get anyway , parking which was free before. 2 Hawaii tourist taxes. Key fee of $75 ( for nothing) and you pay for a cleaning fee of upwards of $200 to get it ready for someone else. No thanks. I have many other places to see where I’m not getting robbed. ! Bye bye Maui
When I went to Lahaina for a week, work-related, the moment I stepped off the plane, it was like being in a Disneyland ride. White people having a Hawaiian Shirt Friday.
Driving to Hana a few days later, and despite beautiful greenery, it was the same impression. Everything geared towards accommodating the tourist.
I felt sad. I wondered how it must feel to Be Hawaiian and be surrounded with so much fakeness.
For many years, I lived in the Napa Valley, so I’m definitely familiar with tourism. When it takes over, a place begins to resemble a caricatured shell: a hollow echo of it origins that only springs to life to sell baubles to each new crowd vomited up by the next plane or cruise ship.
I hope Maui reclaims itself.
Reclaims what? Lahaina was a fishing village consisting of an economy selling sex and provisions to the whaling fleet for most of the 1800’s. The kingdom never gave the people land and sold it off entire islands. The history people hear about as about as make believe as the experience you said you had.
I guess we can assume you never travel anywhere then, Lisa, as a tourist. I wouldn’t either, if I felt I was being “vomited out” of my means of transportation. But that is a particularly ugly description of people just traveling for vacations. Tourism is a wonderful thing, giving people opportunities to see different places and things all over the world. You make it sound like some kind of vice, which is unfortunate. And if you do it personally, “you’re the pot calling the kettle black”.
Covid, hurricane induced wildfires and Bisson.
The death nails in the economy for Maui workers, grocery stores, taxes for infrastructure and restaurant employees/owners all suffer from each one of these tragedies.
Maui’s heyday Will no longer be as bright and shiny as it once was.
This whole thing is very sad. The last is funded and orchestrated by selfish individuals.
Well yeah, if I was thinking about buying a condo but learned I couldn’t rent it out to help with the mortgage, who in their right mind would buy it just to use a few weeks out of the year? Only the super wealthy could afford that and they wouldn’t be interested anyway. They’d rather just stay at a nice hotel than mid range condo and invest their money elsewhere..
Maui and the rest of the islands made it very clear…the only visitors they want are the high end, big money visitors.
They haven’t even been cryptic about it. they have literally said that they want to hotels full (at $1000/night), they don’t want guests to rent cars, as they prefer that they stay almost exclusively at the resort. No eating at Coconuts (would signal a low-brow traveler), no going on RTH (creates traffic), and certainly no beaches off the resort front (as we all know, “no one” owns the beach, unless you’re a local who demands they have exclusive rights to it).
I just returned from 13 days in Lahaina 5 days ago. I may go back, but only because I have a place to stay for free, if the airfare remains cheap like it was for this trip. Overall I wasn’t too too impressed, but had fun snorkeling. I drove around most days without any definite plans except for 1 boat tour that had to be scheduled. Everything is very expensive there. The grocery store prices shocked me! Gas was only slightly higher than Southern California gas though. If I had to pay for a condo/hotel, I wouldn’t go back.
I think the article exaggerates the impact of str’s being phased out. The fact is vacation rentals will always be there that have been zoned as rentals. The ones that are going away are the ones that were zoned for residential purposes being used as airbnbs. This is really good if the prices are indeed coming down because they were overpriced to begin with. My condo that is in a community that does not allow strs (thank goodness) has tripled in value since I’ve purchased it.. it’s ridiculously priced and I hope it will go down so others locally can actually afford to buy it. I believe str’s have done a lot of damage to the housing market and hopefully this will be a step in the right direction to bring down the prices.
you are uninformed, the STR’s they’re trying to phase out have always legally been legally able to operate as STR’s for the last 50 years.. none of them require STR permits, because a permit was never required in those zones. Maui County is attempting to change zoning, thats it.. And if you yourself want to create affordable housing.. you can sell your condo for what you paid for it or less… that’s how that works
The Minatoya condos allowed short term rentals. They were allowed for decades. This was not an under-the-table arrangement with owners and some rogue politicians. County council codified this right and granted the same lawful rental rights to Minatoya condos as were enshrined by zoning for the hotel-zoned condos. There was literally no legal distinction between A1/2 condos and H1/H2 for decades, and investments were made based on the guarantees outlined by the Code. H-zoned condos didn’t require owners to rent on a short term basis any more than A1/2 condos required owners to live in or rent them long term. Peddling misinformation is part of the problem with this fiasco.
100% the gov/mayor/council pedal misinformation, newscasters, believe the misinformation then the public who doesn’t research, or never owned a condo believe it.. just like someone here won’t pay $1500 for rent.. condo dues are $2000 a month..plus a loan payment taxes and insurance.. Nothing is Free.. but the gov here wants people to believe they’ll get a free condo.. won’t happen, unless the county buys it for them.