Behemoth airline and Hawaii newcomer Southwest Airlines was the first to announce what we here at BOH have known for several weeks was happening. There is a slowdown in forward bookings and an increase in cancellations for Hawaii travel and in fact for the entire travel industry.
The airline confirmed that the decrease in demand is as a result of “the recent rise in COVID-19 cases associated with the Delta variant.” Thus, Southwest Airlines reduced its third-quarter earnings guidance.
This all has changed very quickly.
As recently as July 22, July 22, SW CEO Gary Kelly said they were “not detecting any impact at all” related to the latest COVID variant. On that earnings call, others at SWA confirmed that belief. Now, just three weeks later, everything has shifted.
SWA said it now expects August revenue to be off 15% to 17% compared with 2019, which is significantly worse than the prior estimation. Passenger load factors are also expected to drop to 80%, down 7% since last month.
TSA also announced that the number of passengers screened daily is now trending down about 20% compared with 2019. September may be even worse in terms of air traffic.
Hawaii travel has been flying high.
Mainland visitors have been desperate to travel to Hawaii this summer and fall after canceling travel plans for 2020 and early 2021. Airlines and all of Hawaii have been experiencing an unexpectedly strong recovery.
Hawaii vacation-bound travelers have returned to the skies in huge numbers over the past several months, straining Hawaii’s capacity. Hawaii travel demand has done better than most other places, due to its being an exotic yet domestic destination, and given the ongoing complexities associated with international travel.
Hawaii travel availability may be increasing across the board.
The downward trend, albeit perhaps temporary, could mean that more cars are available, and more accommodations as well. If you didn’t find a Hawaii car rental when looking before, keep looking. You are more likely to find one now and in the coming weeks. The same goes for restaurant reservations. But it isn’t that simple. Read on for what may be about to happen.
Pricing ahead should be more advantageous for Hawaii visitors.
We have been sharing $99 airfares for the past couple of weeks, and there will be more of those and perhaps even lower prices ahead as airlines scramble to fill seats on a plethora of recently expanded Hawaii routes. Better pricing should be available on accommodations too, at least for now. If you have any reservations for ground activities and cars, keep checking for a possible price decrease. Stay tuned for more pricing updates.
Hawaii travel demand is closely tied to Delta variant peak.
This is the key factor to keep an eye on. It remains unclear when the current spiking COVID cases will trend down, both nationally and in Hawaii. Some predictions say that could even begin later this month. Whenever that happens, we are likely to see a reversal of the deceleration that is now in process.
Thus, there is a bottom line. There may be a sweet spot in the days and weeks ahead just before travel demand resurging once again. Stay tuned, as we’ll be staying on top of that with you.
We welcome your thoughts.
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For my family it’s just a matter of economics on who our family of six will fly. All of the airlines other than SWA (no bag fees) charge $30.00+ each way. As a family we would rather save on air fare, car rental and do other local activities. We have a budget, and try to spend within that budget. So if we spend more on airfare, car rental we won’t go out to breakfast, lunch or dinner. Just an fyi, we are traveling on SWA from Vegas and returning on HAL. We do try to support all the local shops and restaurants when we can. Some of my family works in the restaurant business and hospitality industry. Just think if Colorado shut down all the ski resorts and told the tourist not come the state would go bankrupt. The ski/snowboarding and recreation industry generates 4.8 billon in annual economic impact. Jobs are 1.9 billon per year in labor income. Hawaii tourism generates 17.75 billon per the Hawaii Tourism Authority 2019.
Sorry to be long, but wanted to make a point. Thank you.
It could also be because of all the press saying they don’t want the tourists.
I am planning and have most of the big pieces in place for three trips in 2022: Kauai first two weeks of May, solo, primarily to hike the Kalalau Trail again, two weeks in Maui beginning of July with my family, and Kauai for three weeks beginning end of August, mainly staying at in Haena, probably solo again, though I invited another couple. My friend’s wife isn’t vaccinated, and I don’t want them coming if she’s not.
One of these Kauai trips was going to be this September, but the rental car prices and Hanalei Hill still not fully re-open caused me to reschedule. Now I’ve got three car rental reservations for nearly seven weeks total for about what a two-week reservation for this September would be alone.
I’m waiting on flights, though. Flights to Hawaii right now are cheaper a month out than 11 months out.
Please give us a break from tourism! Too many people flood our little towns and too little respect to land, culture and locals! Can’t even enjoy our common spots without getting bombarded with entitled tourists.
Thank you for the above information. It is beneficial to our plans
to return to the islands of Hawaii. We fly Southwest often and need to know when will be the next time to visit. Not depending just on SW.
I appreciate your forthright information and the integrity.
I thought I would never give up on Hawaii. There is a place in Kona that I dearly love. Unfortunately Hawaii’s travel regulations for the last year and a half have been a case study in what not to do. i won’t belabor the point, but I canceled a November 2020 trip, then re-scheduled for May, 2021. Finally canceled May, 2021 to Kona and went elsewhere.
Had a great time and the people there were welcoming and appreciated the business. Considered returning to Kona in 2022, but those in charge in Hawaii don’t seem to know what they are doing going forward. The last straw was the rental car fiasco. I just re-scheduled again elsewhere.
“Pupu Platter Hawaii, Covid Restrictions Return”
“Hanauma Bay, Environmental Impacts of Recent Programs”
“Buyers fear increasingly present after Housing Market”
“Hawaii Hotel and Resteraunt Fair postponed due to Covid”
“Dukes Oceanfest Watersports Event Canceled, 2nd straight year”
Add this to all the kvetching by Ige, Mayor’s etc., a return to Masks in Public, greatly reduced seating in Dining, blaming Local’s for an increase, but giving “diminished value” to those coming and spending $. All this, less then 60 days from having re-opened. Follow the Science!
hawaii deserves a break please
Just got back. Super crowded and expensive. Hot as b@llz in the sun but that’s nothing new. Food sucksored almost everywhere except for…wait for it…Tommy Bahama restaurant in Oahu. Was surprisingly wonderful.
I agree. I want to Tommy Bahama for an early dinner the day I arrived and it was surprisingly excellent. Even my daughter who got a kids meal agreed.
Thank you for updates during this ” unique time ” in all our lives. Your articles help me to stabilize my thoughts and plans. I have family there as well and it helps me know more about how it is going for them as well.
Hi Jonathan.
Thanks for that and for your first-time comment. Hope to see you again.
Aloha.
I’m in Oahu now and it’s packed with visitors. Restaurants are expensive and not good. The scenery’s amazing but I am glad less people are coming here. Locals are tired of rude tourists.
We booked our Hawaii travel back in March. Got a cheap car rental before prices started going up. Booked Airbnb for one month in Waikiki and one month in Hilo. So glad we booked early, because everything is expensive right now.
We had reservations to Big Island from Toronto with United. They changed with a 2 stop flight… We were able to get a better option. We are going Nov.2 I hope Delta is gone by that time!
A comment on the Hawaiian vs SWA flight option mentioned below…..there is simply no comparison. Hawaiian obviously has the better product but more important, they are based in Hawaii. They gear their service to Hawaii’s needs. They don’t go anywhere when times get tough. It’s really the only airline that supports the state.
BOH you guys are on Kauai, I think you’ll agree….after a major hurricane everyone pulls out and it’s Hawaiian that is there supporting the island. Their employees live in Hawaii and treat it like what it is, their home. Frankly I am a little biased against SWA in particular as they are very aggressive and loud for newcomers and really focused on trying to get market share without any thought to how it effects Hawaii. I am sure they will always do what’s best for themselves, they are very good at that.
Personally I always try to fly local.
Aloha
Lol wrong…any local knows that actually Hawaiian does the opposite of all you just said. They wait until locals need to travel for their kids sports events, halaus for merrie monarch, holidays and Jack up their prices solely based on their knowledge of our commitments. They priced out Aloha Air in order to monopolize the states inter island travel. That’s how I know you are not local. SW coming to Hawaii was what we needed.
Be careful what you ask for, you might get it. And go it you did. You wanted Southwest and lower airfares, and you got them. But you also go a different class/level of tourist into Hawaii. Maybe those that don’t respect the people or the land like previous tourist did. Remember, people that buy SW airfare are those looking for cheapest fars and bag costs. Do you really think those are the same people spending money to support the Hawaiian economy? You complain about too many tourist…2 years ago SW started flying to Hawaii from the mainland. They probably now have at least 50 flights daily flying into hawaii. That’s a lot of tourist flying in on a daily basis. At 75% capacity. that’s about 7,000 flying in everyday. Now you know why Hawaii is inundated with tourist. For $300 RT, they flying in, and don’t give a crap about respecting anything.
Just my observation…
Well maybe you should also need to stay home when things get tough and not travel to Hawaii. Sorry but less of you and your attitudes are better for us locals. Alot if travels are so rude to workers and its annoying. Travels should learn to show respect and ALOHA since we are servicing you.
hawaii deserves a break please
Hal was ripping off the locals for 20 years on interisland flights. 300 bucks for 1 20 min flight. And den they screw us all by blocking the ferry. Imagine a island chain with no ferry service. Humm something wrong here yeah. Guess how many united and delta and American employees in Hawaii. 1 united flight from narita and 1 delta flight from Osaka prob bring more cash and jobs into Hawaii then Hawaiians flight to Vegas.
The rental car price reduction is real! About a week I priced a 3-day rental of a compact car from Honolulu airport for late August – it was almost $500. Wasn’t sure what we needed so held off booking. So glad I did! Went back online yesterday – same cars are now going for $49 a day!
Thanks for all your great articles as keeping us up to date on the COVID situation.
Hi Jeanette.
Thanks for the feedback. Were so glad to hear that worked out well for you.
Aloha.
Aloha BOH Travel Gods
We’d booked SWA out of Sacramento for our upcoming October travel to Maui using points, but in the last 2 weeks SWA changed our departure flight from Sacramento twice putting us on Maui 4 hours later then our original booked flight.
Last week I caught a good deal from Hawaiian re-booked with them and canceled SWA. We are still booked with SWA for our return flight to Sacramento.
I’ve been following other travel sites there’s been a lot of complaints about SWA changing flights it’s just adding to travelers frustrations. My be another reason folks are throwing in the towel on travel to Hawaii
Hi Richard.
You are too kind. And funny. Yes others have been reporting the same thing to us recently about sW. Glad you were able to find a better option. Lastly, do have a great time!
Aloha.
Mai Tai in hand, sun on my bun and some tasty waves or crashed out snoring on Wailea Beach it’s all good dude’s.
Hi Richard.
Happy to hear you’ve arrived. Have a great time.
Aloha.
I loved “The Descendants”. I watch it every once in a while, particularly in winter. I miss Kauai so much and hope everybody will be more careful as we are not out of the woods, yet.
I was listening to an English scientist who said Delta variant cases are subsiding in India and Britain. I hope it will be the same here. He also said to keep an eye for different variants. It is just so sad that so many people didn’t trust science and the vaccine. I hope you are both well. I never miss reading your newsletter).
Hi Nadege.
Thanks. We are always glad to hear from you and wish you and your family the best.
Aloha. R/J
Thank you for these articles about SWA and fares/flights, car rentals and Tahiti Nui. As always, I look forward daily to my BOH news email to share with my travelling friends. JM
Yes I too noticed that most all the airlines are reporting a drop in demand after Labor Day.
A contributing factor could be the expiration of the federal employee paid leave benefit in the American Rescue Plan. Starting in March federal employees could self-certify for up to 15 weeks of paid leave of $1400 a week. The program ends September 30th or when the $570 million of funding runs out.I am guessing quite a few federal employees visited Hawaii to recover from the stress of the last year.
All that paid leave might be part of the reason passports are taking months to process and 35 million tax returns have not been processed.
Aloha – or is it? Why has Oahu completely shut down the AirBnB app? Have the hotels gotten that much power? Is there a reason, perhaps? Now, if travel to HI may be impacted again, wouldn’t it be better to allow vaccinated/tested travelers the freedom to be in a safer location than a hotel? We appreciate the work that you do to inform us of what is happening. Mahalo – keep it up!
We’ll be to our beloved Kaua’i in 4 weeks. Have to admit, the downturn is a positive in our book. Less people = a much better experience.
I’ve been following the data for the UK closely all spring / summer. The Delta spike lasted around 3 – 4 weeks and has once again turned downward in the last week each day. I believe by the end of September this Delta variant will be well behind us.