A new holiday travel study released by Deloitte has finally quantified a shift that has been quietly approaching Hawaii for months. More Americans plan to take trips next year, but they intend to spend less on each one. That includes staying more with family and friends instead of in hotels, and replacing air travel with regional driving when possible.
That directly challenges Hawaii’s dependence on air travel, long hotel stays, and higher spending. The national travel trends outlined by Deloitte do not align with the model Hawaii has relied on for decades, and that mismatch will matter in 2026.
What Deloitte found includes higher-income households tightening their belts.
Deloitte’s new holiday travel study reveals an 18% drop in planned spending. While the Deloitte study focuses on the holiday season, the behaviors it identifies align with early signals of what Hawaii may face in 2026. At the same time, the average number of trips per traveler is expected to decrease from 2.14 to 1.83, as more travelers opt for shorter, regional driving trips instead of longer, more expensive flights.
Even high-income households, the same group Hawaii relies on most, are now pulling back sharply. Nineteen percent of households with incomes of $100K or more feel worse off. Planning windows are tightening as travelers wait longer to book, watch airfares more closely, and become more selective about where they spend.
“High-income travelers are leading the pullback in travel spending with fewer and shorter trips, less long-distance flying, and more caution around experience upgrades,” Deloitte found.
While Hawaii is not directly mentioned in the study, it is one of the most exposed destinations because its costs are high and its infrastructure, pricing, and availability make quick adaptation difficult.
Hawaii’s visitor model has depended on the big trip.
That’s when visitors stay seven to ten nights, splurge on activities, and justify high airfares and increasingly uncomfortable flights by stretching their vacation as long as possible.
Following Covid, the average length of stay climbed to around ten days before beginning a steady decline. September’s average fell to 8.25 days, the very low end of Hawaii’s historic range, and early signals suggest it may slip further.
That long-stay model drives hotel revenue, restaurant spending, activity sales, rental car demand, and airline profitability. It is also why per-visitor spending has mattered so much in recent years, as we covered in Hawaii Got The Slowdown It Asked For Now It Is Running Scared.
A shift away from longer stays hits Hawaii immediately. Take one or two nights off a trip, and the first things to go are meals out, activities, and rental days, and hotels quickly feel that gap. Hawaii costs more to visit and operate than almost anywhere else, so even small changes in how people plan their trips ripple through the islands almost immediately.
What the latest data shows.
DBEDT’s 2025 reports look steady. September averaged 8.25 days, and July came in higher at 8.84, and August was 8.49. More extended stays are still the norm in Hawaii and have traditionally increased only slightly year over year. However, state data often lags behind actual changes, which are more accurately reflected in planning at this point.
Visitor behavior often shifts quietly months before the stay data reflects it. Deloitte is indicating the beginning of a shift that Hawaii will likely experience in early 2026 and beyond, not immediately.
The shift BOH editors made.
Editors Rob and Jeff made the same shift unknowingly. Every year, we typically spend at least three months traveling throughout the Hawaiian islands and as far as French Polynesia, and this year, to the Cook Islands to bring back reporting.
For 2026, we have reduced travel time by approximately a month and reallocated the time and resources into shorter, more frequent trips. We made these calls before ever seeing Deloitte’s data, and it turns out we were making the same shift millions of travelers are now signaling. Clearly, we are not alone. This pattern is taking shape long before it appears in any state report.
The new pattern.
Our readers have been signaling this for months. Nine night trips are shrinking to six. Luaus and high cost activities are being skipped in favor of beaches and trails. A second island is disappearing from many itineraries because interisland flights and car rentals add too much cost. Instead, visitors are adding a cheaper mainland trip and trimming their time in Hawaii. Hawaii is not being replaced. Hawaii is being compressed. And that reality changes every dynamic.
Airlines and hotels.
Hawaii’s operators tend to adapt slowly. Airlines require predictable bookings for longer-haul routes, but shorter booking windows prompt them to adopt reactive pricing. Hotels rely on longer blocks to manage labor and turnover costs. Rental car companies have long depended on weeklong bookings. Activity companies depend on higher-margin tours that are the first thing visitors cut.
Accommodations clinging to minimum night stays in the new world of travel risk losing business to more flexible competitors. Airlines that expect last-minute premium bookings may misread demand and end up discounting flights. Tour operators whose pricing does not match the new budget reality may feel softness. We already see more restaurant availability and empty parking lots. The industry’s long-held assumptions are being fully tested just as travelers are changing course.
Hawaiian, Alaska and the other Hawaii airlines.
The Alaska purchase of Hawaiian arrives in the middle of this shift. The combined airline is reassessing Hawaii routes and schedules, while trying to reassure travelers about brand identity, as we reported in How Long Will Hawaiian Alaska Dual Branding Really Last. Now add shorter booking windows, tighter budgets, and a more price-sensitive visitor.
Premium cabin demand, a key piece of revenue for airlines and long in high demand, may become vulnerable if visitors shorten their stays. Widebody planning becomes challenging when booking behavior shifts. Route decisions become riskier when load factors change later than expected. Airlines must adapt faster than the market, not slower, during a national reset that makes longer haul flying harder to predict.
The Hawaii tension.
Hawaii built its reputation on longer, unhurried vacations, but the emerging trend of shorter, smaller-budget trips directly challenges that very identity. If the average Hawaii vacation drops by even a day or two more, visitor behavior will change dramatically. So does what visitors choose, what they skip, and how Hawaii feels in real time.
Looking ahead to 2026, are you cutting Hawaii trips, staying fewer nights, trimming activity spending, or keeping your Hawaii travel the same?
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As a time share owner since 1999, I have seen my annual maintenance (HOA) from $1800 to current (2025) $3700. My other time share on Maui (HOA) is $3900 (2025). I am seriously considering selling out but the shock is when checking out, there is the daily fees of $25-$35. So, the only recommendation I can give to travelers is check out the costs of the daily fees. It should add another $250 to your rental costs for the week.
We usually stay 3 weeks but going for 2 instread while rolling back certain activities we like and less dinners out. We choose not to spend the usually extra while the related costs have sky rocketed and the general “feel” of Hawaii has dramatically changed.
While most of what we are concerned about here is Hawaii, I just went to our Washington coastal condo meeting. The last three years have shown a continual decline in use; a couple properties have closed and restaurants are empty. Travel for even weekends may be being reduced.
After decades of coming to Hawaii twice a year, we’re planning only one trip in 2026. We’ll combine the total number of days into one trip. No visiting another Island, and will limit the entire trip to our Princeville timeshare. We will limit restaurant dining to evening only, and prepare all other meals at the condo. Cost is the main reason for the changes but the increasingly uncomfortable airline/airport experience is also a factor, along with a general feeling that the Aloha “vibe” on the island has somewhat deteriorated, sad to say.
Do you think maybe a part of the 18% are the people who stay in STR and are afraid to book because of the uncertainty of their reservation due to the political climate in Maui?
“High End” travelers aren’t gonna stop their traveling. They’re just not gonna travel to a place where the vocal minority says “ Haole go home”. Unfortunately that vocal minority gets the most influence and air time over guys like Mayor Bissen.
With the direct Boston flight now gone, I still want to spend some nights on Kauai after a day trip my last visit. I’m cutting down from about 10 nights spent in Hawaii this year, to four next year and I’ll spend time in Nevada, probably Laughlin on the way there and back. A hotel on Kauai is over $200 a night, whereas in Laughlin an equivalent room is $50. I’ve even seen beach front hotels in the Cook Islands go for around $50 a night.
“It’s the economy stupid”
Currently we’re reaching the pinnacle of unaffordable living in America.
Been doing regular Hawaii trips since the 70s. Our pattern has almost always been a couple weeks in one place. This allows for not only a slower pace but the ability to work around a rainy day. Having visited so often, and now doing just the Big Island (it was Kauai before as we never liked Oahu or Maui) we will likely return for the same couple weeks. We don’t do tours and such except for on specialized birding tour; we just poke around and snorkel. Plus, by staying in a condo we take advantage of the Farmer’s Markets and such for great eating. But we obviously don’t fit the desired “spend a ton” goal.
Yes. My husband and I typically travel with another couple to Hawaii 2-3 times per year. We had planned on renting a private home on the beach in Lawai for a week followed by another week at our condo in Princeville. We decided the private home was too much of a splurge at this point and have opted for a shorter stay in Princeville instead. And as there are fewer restaurant choices on the North Shore, we’ll end up doing more dinners in the condo rather than dining out.
Will always love Hawaii as we frequently travelled there growing up and so many wonderful memories. Maui was the favorite but I can’t see returning soon because of the loss of Lahaina – it’s forever changed. Going o Honolulu for a week – but only renting a car for a day because prices are so high. Island excursions/tours are outrageously expensive, so skipping those as well. But the beautiful water, flowers, music, soft air, and that something indefinable that makes Hawaii special are all free, and that is enough. But I think it has to be acknowledged that even travelling on the mainland has become extortionate – especially hotel costs. When all is said and done, I’d still rather go to the islands.
We have done an annual 3-week trip to Hawaii in January for decades. Since Covid, we have been saying “enough with the uncomfortable airlines, lack of genuine premium cabins, loss of Hawaiian Airlines, crowds and high rental car prices”… This is our last trip. Well, we went ahead and booked for 2026 and met a true disaster with booking flights on Hawaiian which then got canceled by Alaska Airlines who crammed us into a sadly packed 787, a great plane that they totally degraded with their greedy 3x3x3 seat layout. So to answer your question. Yes, The travel industry has succeeded in driving us out of Hawaii. I am already booking for Spain or the Med for 27.
We were their in February 2025 last time was 8 years prior it was more costly this time but we made the most of it an still had a great time, 2026 not so much on going back i has gotten more expensive we would have to go for 4 days instead of 6 just to see some of the sites an whale watch but eat not eat at the main restaurant you could save half an still get a good meal. We’ll have v to see.
For the past 9 years we have spent 14-15 days annually in Hawaii but for 2026 we will be staying on the mainland as Hawaii has become too expensive and commercial.
No, I am not staying fewer nights on my January 2026 trip. In fact, I have extended it a few days, but that is because it will probably be my last trip to Hawaii due to age and declining health. After about 40 trips to Hawaii, since 1971, I am ready to call it a day with a final Hawaiian sunset. I think I am ready. It just isn’t the same anymore. It was much better on the earlier trips. The decline has been gradual but noticeable. Good luck and Mahalo.
Aloha. “High end” travelers leading the charge? Maybe the governor has found the breaking point after all this time. So, no problem. Just back off that last 1% tax and all will be good.