For more than half a century, Hawaii held a rare place in global travel. It was aspirational without being exclusive. For middle-class travelers around the world, and especially US mainlanders, Hawaii was the big trip you saved for, planned carefully, and hoped to repeat, even again and again, if life allowed. It was never cheap, but it was clearly attainable, and that balance defined Hawaii’s appeal for generations.
So many visitors now feel unsettled upon returning. Hawaii travel feels much more expensive, more rigid, and less forgiving than it ever did before. People still arrive carrying expectations shaped by years of memory and marketing and leave sensing that something fundamental has shifted, even when they struggle to name exactly what it is. That feeling is not imagined. It is the result of a calculated reorientation in how travel destinations, including Hawaii, now decide who they are building for.
This is the third piece in a series we have been developing on the future of middle-class travel in Hawaii. The first examined how Hawaii’s own middle class is being pushed out. The second traced the arc of Hawaii travel from the 747 era to now. This one steps back further and looks at national industry data for 2026, which explains why what is happening in Hawaii is not an accident, a correction, or a phase. It is a structural shift happening everywhere in travel.
Hawaii is uniquely exposed to this dynamic.
Long flights, limited resources, and high operating costs already push prices skyward. Once it became clear to operators that fewer visitors spending more money could replace larger numbers of Hawaii’s traditional cost-conscious travelers, the incentive to protect prior accessibility was largely gone. That helps explain why pricing across Hawaii travel, including airfare, accommodations, activities, meals, and more, has felt relentlessly heading one way.
Hotel rates that spiked during the pandemic were never to reset. Rental car prices dipped, then resurged, and remained high. We’ve reluctantly started paying $100 or more a day for car rentals within Hawaii. Resort fees spread even to properties that once resisted. New taxes and other fees continue to surface framed as modest additions, but they stack on top of an already expensive trip.
Who Hawaii is being built for now.
The travelers now shaping Hawaii’s future do not travel the same way most people used to. They are the ones who take more trips, return more often, and respond very differently to rising costs than families planning a once a year or every few years vacation.
A national travel industry study, the 2026 Future of Luxury Travel, which has been tracking affluent Americans since 2007, puts numbers to this shift:
The top 10% of U.S. households now account for more than half of all leisure travel spending, projected at $544 billion annually. They take an average of 4.3 trips per year, while the top 1% take six; that’s more than double the national average. Per-trip spending among the top 10% has climbed to $7,900, which is up from $5,100 just three years ago. The top 1% now spends $12,400 per trip. Those spends are compared with about $3,700 for the average American traveler.
That difference in frequency and spending is huge. Travelers who take six expensive trips a year do not flinch when costs rise. If Hawaii feels less appealing at one moment, they may simply turn in another direction and then return later. For Hawaii, that group is extremely attractive and helps explain why attracting first-time visitors or retaining middle-income repeat travelers has quietly become less important than maximizing revenue from those who return often and spend freely.
How spending power is changing every Hawaii decision.
When Hawaii can earn about twice as much money from a single visit, price sensitivity stops being so important. Higher rates stop being risky and start working as a designed filter. Fees that frustrate many serve to help screen them out while barely registering for those more affluent, and over time, pricing defines access without any need for explanation.
This is where Hawaii’s recent decisions line up in ways that are hard to ignore. Vacation rental reductions and even just the governor’s promise that another 10,000 Hawaii vacation rentals will go, help eliminate lower-cost options and push demand toward hotels. Airlines, including Hawaiian/Alaska, increasingly focus Hawaii routes around premium cabins and higher-yield seating. Hawaii tourism tracks spending per visitor more closely than it does who is being priced out, reinforcing a system that rewards spending power over once all-important loyalty.
What longtime visitors say.
For people who returned to Hawaii year after year, the shift doesn’t happen all at once. And the island vacation that once felt doable annually now happens once every two, three, four, or five years, if at all.
What makes the change so hard to accept is that Hawaii was never positioned or built like other luxury destinations. It was not marketed as exclusive or elite. It was developed and sold as attainable if you planned carefully and saved, and many visitors are only now realizing that their expectations no longer apply. Visitors don’t describe this as any single breaking point, but more as a matter of erosion. They still love Hawaii. And those who leave mostly don’t comment or announce it. They just stop booking, stop checking, and, over time, disappear from the visitor mix.
What Hawaii gains and loses.
The Hawaii travel industry is no longer waiting for middle-income demand to rebound. It is being rebuilt around the segment that recovered fastest and continues to grow, even while that segment is smaller and less rooted in any one place, even here.
In Hawaii, French Polynesia, and elsewhere, fewer visitors with higher spending totals are framed as success. Accessibility is reduced as revenue climbs, and the middle is expendable. What gets lost isn’t just a category of traveler, but a massive layer of the Hawaii visitor ecosystem. The accommodations, restaurants, and experiences that have long made Hawaii feel reachable begin to disappear together with the people who supported them, as the tourism economy becomes optimized for wealth.
For visitors who feel pushed, the message does not need interpretation because rising costs aren’t an accident. They are signals of what’s ahead.
Photo Credit: Beat of Hawaii at Wailea, Maui.
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Used to be, visitors to Hawaii were treated like family. Unfortunately,
Hawaii, and especially Maui, now treat visitors as a problem to be managed, a profit to be extracted.
This new philosophy permeates the island’s thinking, from Bill 9 to such minor issues as Park Maui – Kamaʻāina are free; visitors pay. We’re not family anymore,
We’ve become a profit to be extracted.
Enjoy the Jeff Bezos of the world. For many middle-tier travelers such as ourselves, the Cook Islands look like they still treat visitors as family, and are dazzlingly lovely.
This article hits it on the head. Lucky enough to have been there 100+, times, most recently had a great little house in Kaimuki. All gone now. My daughter and 2 grandkids (19 and 24) and I had a great trip in 2025. But it squeezed us. The “must have” $8 Royal Hawaiian Mai Tais are $20+. No Freddie Noa, no Sam Kapu. No millions 2 spend. Dick P. Socal.
Anyone who has visited the Caribbean knows where Hawaii is headed!
The wealthy tourists in gated compounds, the island poor in crime and drug infested ghettos.
Aloha
We have booked the same condo for years. It has gone up a bit but I realize that with inflation that happens. However, I have booked again for June 2026. I cannot believe how much the airfare is. I have always paid $300 – $400 for airfare coming out of California. This year it is $700 – $800. I can almost fly to Europe for that. Such a shame I have always loved Hawaii
The higher income folks seem to be shoring up the Hawaii economy, but market corrections and recessions are inevitable. I have a feeling that the day is coming when Hawaii will be begging for the middle income families to come back.
Does this also push Hawaii residents further down with a larger “wealth gap” between visitors and residents? In our visits we almost never, for example, ate at “high end luxury” eateries. We went to the local pizza place or restaurants that were more in the middle. That would still be our preference but will those places survive if the middle-class is basically excluded from visiting?
What was Hawaii has since left the building.
What Hawaii is now is plastic, artificial, overused, and run down.
Or the reality that you can be run over if not careful.
The potential is still there, just that it’s been highjacked for money.
Will that change for the better?
Probably not!
Excellent, insightful, analytical and challenging article by BOH editors! The comments that have been made so far really hit hard. I finally have come to the realization and have to admit that Hawaii has definitely changed, and unfortunately not always in good way. For the first time in 60 straight years of annual visits, and most of those twice a year, we are actually considering skipping this year entirely! Our reservations for our timeshare are made, but nothing else at this point. We’ve reached the point where the cost, preparation, logistics, and emotional considerations from all that’s happened in Hawaii, particularly during and post covid, that perhaps a pause is warranted. Just typing that last sentence makes me so very very sad.
Aloha to all, always!
As a 40+ year resident, Hawaii has always been expensive and those things what were cheap (papayas 6 for $1) or plate lunch (under $8) are long gone. Airfare if you adjust for inflation is still amazingly cheap as long as you book smart. Hotel and Restaurant prices reflect the politics of minimum and unionized wage requirements as well as the impact of the Jones Act on everything shipped in. Hawaii Government is a single-party machine-state that suffers from a lack of a balanced perspective, continues to overspend and sees the visitor industry as a piggy bank to pay for it all. Our choices have an impact, could we do better, of course, as a resident, I don’t have to pay to park at beaches, tourists do, so I guess that makes it alright. Even thought I still wake up everyday lucky to call Hawaii home, I long for the Hawaii before barbed wire fences and Kapu signs.
Beautifully well said, Kawika! Mahalo Nui for your words and Aloha!
I’m a longtime lover of Hawaii, and my heart and soul live there. I constantly support the mom and pop shops there, buying their goods online. I’m one of the most loyal, most supportive, and most respectful tourist you’ll ever come across. If my money is no longer good enough because I’m not rich enough, trust me, there are other places that will appreciate it. I’m tired of the whining Hawaii does regarding tourism. If you want wealthy, have at it. Don’t complain when more and more of Hawaii goes to rich developers.
We just confirmed our flight for June, 2026. The airfare is about the same as we paid some 4 years ago. Rental cars are out of control….but constant checking and brought that from $1900 to $1300 for a month. Our housing cost is a relative constant with our “timeshare” condo that we own. But we used to own two months and have now sold one. We are looking at this upcoming trip as a potential “last hurrah” in coming to Hawaii. Car, Condo and plane is now $5500 and then we have to figure food and gas for a month. Yeah, we are getting priced out…and I feel so sorry for the local businesses that will be run out of business as well. The market that Hawaii is seeking now…yeah they will land at the Four Seasons or Hilton Waikoloa village…but they won’t be in Downtown Kona shopping or eating. Hence, I say in another 3-4 years, it’s going to nothing but boarded up shops and empty restaurants. Thank you Hawaii for some great years, but they may be coming to an end.
Related to a previous story…
We have booked a summer trip. Expensive but willing to pay for the accommodations. However, the airfares are extortionate and the expected experience in roach class is foreboding. However, as we near the full refund cancellation date we will do so if the airlines hold to their present gouging. Plenty of time to pivot to a pleasant mainland alternative.
Half a loaf is better than none, Southworst, Disunited and your brethren.
I don’t agree with the premise, that the 6-8 trips a year traveler doesn’t care about pricing. While I can pay the increases, I revolt due to the continual nickel and diming primarily from the government. We just left Maui and were perturbed that the county feels that a $17. parking charge at the Nakalele blowhole is reasonable. We have been paying entrance fees to Wainapanapa for 5 years but see Absolutely no infrastructure improvements. The road is horrendous and there have been no park improvements. Where is the money going? So there is a breaking point even for those who can afford the price gouging.
I have been traveling to Maui since 1975 and there was a book “Hawaii on
$10 a day” at that time! Now that $10 will only pay for a couple of hours of parking at one of the local beaches. How things have changed.
I have lived and worked in Poipu for 12 years now. We own a condo in a popular resort above the beach, where we live full time. Yes, everything costs more today. I see large family group, groups of friends, singles and couples filling the units. It is very busy just now. Many are repeat visitors, and many are annual visitors. Some may be discouraged from coming, but I do not have the impression
that tourist numbers are declining!
For comparison, I spent the summer on Maui from 1967 to 1970. Honeymoon in 1978 and returned in 1988. Came every summer from 1994 to 2022. Friends with homes in Kapalua since 1984. Visited the Big Island from 2012 to 2021 to visit friends from 1967. Nothing changed from the locals’ attitude about life and visitors. More and more, Maui has become another Mexico. The locals stay uneducated and poor; those with any brains take advantage of work opportunities and have a nice life. It’s become unsafe away from the resorts & condos. So, I’m not returning, because it’s not a calm, peaceful place anymore, because of the “Local Hate” that’s taught by the parents there.
I lived on Kauai for 10 years, in fact my whole family moved from the mainland to be together there. I loved my life there until one day I didn’t and I moved back to the mainland. I still went back twice a year to visit family and I always still felt connected to the islands and enjoyed my visits. The last trip I took in November 2025 will probably be my last. Something has changed. I didn’t really notice the prices so much, probably because I didn’t stay in a hotel, but Hawaii itself no longer feels special or spiritual or welcoming. It seems to have lost the Aloha spirit. Sad…
Between the loss of middle-income travelers, decline in Canadian and international visitation & pricing affordable only to the most affluent, Hawaiʻi faces a protracted period of low occupancy, small-business failure, and a redistribution of services catering to wealth.
The evidence is profound. Restaurants are closing in un-trackable numbers. Eighteen golf courses have shuttered in the past 18 years, most recently the Bay Course at Kapalua. Hawaiian Airlines itself is in distress—an outcome that would have been far more severe absent Alaska’s intervention.
Visitor industry stewardship remains fragmented & unstable: the HVCB resets every 18 years, while the HTA cycles leadership every 18 months. This disconnect makes long-term strategy nearly impossible.
It is no longer sufficient to debate visitor numbers or marketing tactics. Hawaiʻi must undertake a serious, comprehensive re-examination of how to build a sustainable, diversified & resilient visitor economy!
I live on the mainland and Hawaii used to be “the” trip everyone talked about at work. Now it’s Europe or Mexico, South Pacific and Caribbean. Hawaii barely even comes up anymore.
For us it was death by a thousand cuts. Parking fees, resort fees, flights, restaurants, taxes, just for starters. It adds up fast.
We saved for years for our first Hawaii trip in the 90s. We went back many times after that. I don’t see how my kids will ever be able to do the same as we did.
I get the argument, but Hawaii isn’t unique here. Everywhere desirable is moving this direction. It’s not personal, it’s global economics.
This is exactly how it feels. We used to come every year without thinking twice. Now I price it out again and again and just close the browser.
Visiting from Canada, the exchange rate makes today’s Hawaii prices hit especially hard. With usd at about 1.40 cad, everything from rooms to meals costs far more than it did on our last trip to Maui in 2018.
My wife and I are excited to return to Oahu and Kauai in 2026, but we were honestly shocked by current accommodation prices. We chose to stay in hotels rather than vacation rentals because we don’t want to contribute to the local housing shortage, but that also limits affordable options even more.
Hawaii will always be special to us, but it does feel less attainable than it used to for middle-class travelers.
Watched Blue Hawaii on TCM the other night. It wasn’t long until the tears started. We love Hawaii and especially Kauai. To know we will not be able to return, makes me so sad. We always tried to support the local businesses, the farmer’s markets, restaurants etc.. Usually brought a good amount of cash with us but always needed to the Bank of Hawaii atm. Hurts to think visitors like us are no longer wanted.
Hawaii has just become like every other place. Out of reach for the general public. It’s not really Hawaii so much as the government and the HTA. They don’t want the average person they want that extremely wealthy. It’s happening across the country and it’s truly disgusting. We moved here seven years ago, we’ve seen the changes. We’ve seen how all the free parking has gone and now it’s paid parking everywhere. We’ve seen the once moderately priced hotels become horribly expensive and service has diminished. We took a staycation a couple years ago and then we did it again a few months back. We were disappointed in the hotels, really disappointed in the service. It truly is a shame.
Thank you for sharing this. We’ve noticed the same shift and it’s sad to see how quickly Hawaii has become out of reach for so many. Have you also noticed fewer visitors lately from Japan and Canada? Those were always such a big part of the islands’ character, and it feels different without them.
I was in Kona on the 6th for one week. Many visits over 48 years. I was shocked at paying $30.00 to park for two hours in the “Diamond” parking lots.
I never paid parking again, I just walked (I’m 82) from free street parking no matter how far away. Kona has empty shops and expensive restaurants (some discount your parking) because of the corporate fee parking grab. The city needs to provide free parking nearby and run frequent trolley service. A local person suggested taking Uber so the money would at least go to local people. BTW, I feel locals and visitors should pay the same amount for All purchases and services.