Hawaii Fare Wars Over? The Warning Signs Are Already Here

Not long ago, airfare to and between the Hawaiian Islands was about as predictable as the sunrise. Two main players—each with a plethora of daily flights—kept prices in check, and visitors and residents alike benefited from the competition. But something is changing. And it’s starting to show up in places you might not expect.

We continue tracking fares closely, and as of this week, a pattern is emerging that signals a potential retreat from the neck-and-neck price war that defined more than five years since Southwest arrived in Hawaii. One airline appears to be clearly more expensive, even on routes where competition still exists.

The price comparison that caught our attention.

On May 3, we sampled fares for one-way flights across the state for flights BOH editors plan to take. The results were surprising. For example, the route from Lihue to Kona showed a price of $120 on Southwest and $160 on Hawaiian. Same dates and about the same times.

Then an even bigger gap showed up on Lihue to Hilo ($110 on Southwest vs. $208 on Hawaiian) and on Kahului to Hilo ($110 vs. $160). Even routes like Honolulu to Hilo—which were once reliably aligned on pricing—now show interesting differences ($100 on Southwest vs. $120 on Hawaiian).

Only a few key pairings, like Maui to Honolulu, Kauai to Honolulu, and Maui to Kauai are still more closely matched at $100 each way. But even there, higher fares are starting to appear more frequently on Hawaiian.

Over time, this could signal erosion of the few remaining routes where real-time competition is still visible. We have been receiving comments and emails from readers noting these differences, and we confirm they aren’t imagining this.

Just a few months ago, a fare war briefly reignited as prices dropped to $49 between islands. But today’s trends suggest that a competitive phase may be fading. What we’re now seeing looks less like a battle—and more like a quiet separation.

What’s behind the growing price divide?

The answer likely lies in a new combination of strategy shifts and operational pressures. One carrier is now moving under direction of its new financially savvy parent company. The other is navigating very significant turbulence of its own.

Since the announcement of the Alaska purchase of Hawaiian Airlines, we’ve seen clear signals that route profitability and network optimization are now front and center. Alaska has referred to this as route “discipline.”

That could mean anything from trimming routes that lose money to reallocating aircraft and testing how much travelers are willing to pay. Interisland travel has always been unique—short flights, high volume, and deeply tied to resident needs. But it may no longer be exempt from the broader market forces now driving airline pricing decisions.

Adding to this is Hawaiian’s Huakai program, which gives Hawaii residents up to 20% off interisland fares each quarter. That discount doesn’t apply to nonresidents, who may end up paying significantly more for the exact same flights. It’s a new twist in how fares are structured and who ends up paying more. We explored that shift in detail here. Not only that, but Southwest just announced it’s own plan for Hawaii residents.

Meanwhile, the airline that once stormed into Hawaii with low fares and big promises is in the midst of its own reckoning. As we’ve reported, Southwest cut Hawaii flights by up to 30% amid unprecedented financial pressure at the hands of activist investors. Management turnover and operational setbacks have further complicated its Hawaii ambitions. Even so, it continues to hold the line on many interisland fares— at least for now.

Why this matters more than it might seem.

At first glance, a $20 or $40 difference might not seem like a big deal. But multiply that by a family of four, or by multiple interisland segments on a longer trip, and the math changes quickly. What’s more, when one airline raises prices and the other doesn’t follow, it creates friction.

Travelers have to weigh loyalty programs against out-of-pocket costs, and residents who rely on frequent travel may begin to feel squeezed. Not only that, but visitors’ who don’t qualify for resident-only programs can begin to feel compromised.

More importantly, this shift may signal a permanent change in the philosophy behind interisland pricing. If one airline no longer sees the need to match prices flight for flight, it raises questions about whether the competitive era is fading away. For years, travelers benefited from the so-called “Southwest Effect”—a drop in prices triggered by their market entry. But recent behavior may hint that this effect has worn off, or is being strategically ignored.

We’ve said for a long time that airfares interisland will rise to about $300 roundtrip, and that will unquestionably come true, likely sooner than later. Any further retraction by Southwest will undoubtedly result in huge fare increases by Hawaiian/Alaska.

Could this be a sign of wider changes in Hawaii air travel?

Absolutely. We’ve already seen mainland routes get reshuffled, downgraded, or eliminated altogether. Widebody service is being pulled from Hawaii routes and shifted to other markets. The Dreamliner, once hyped as a game-changer for Hawaii travelers, is now being redeployed away from the islands.

If pricing power is returning to airlines flying to and within Hawaii, travelers can expect less predictability, fewer deals, and more variability based on season, demand, and network shifts. That may not be great news for those planning vacations or making interisland connections. But it does reflect what’s happening behind the scenes.

Fleet decisions, acquisition logistics, and cost containment are all exerting pressure. And in the absence of an aggressive fare war, the default may simply become higher prices with little further incentive to adjust downward.

What travelers can do right now.

If you’re planning to fly between islands in the coming months, here are a few takeaways:

• Shop early, but recheck often. Pricing has become less synchronized, and fare drops are no longer likely to match each other.
• Mix and match airlines if needed. The days of booking roundtrip with one carrier for convenience may be over when price is key. A split itinerary could save money.
• Watch for hidden changes. New booking systems and other airline changes may bring changes to bag policies, seat assignments, or mileage accrual. Be sure to check each segment carefully.
• Be aware of schedule reductions. Especially on non-core routes like Lihue to Hilo or Kona to Hilo, fewer options going forward may now mean longer layovers or odd connection times.

Final thought: We’ve seen this before—just not here.

Mainland travelers are already familiar with this story. Airlines consolidate, competition fades, and price gaps quietly grow. Hawaii has long been somewhat insulated from this because of its geographic isolation and unique air travel ecosystem. But that may no longer be true.

We aren’t sounding the alarm just yet. But for the first time in a while, we’re watching the numbers and seeing a story that feels familiar—and not necessarily in a good way. If pricing competition fades, the consequences will ripple in multiples beyond the $100 fares we’ve come to expect.

Let us know what you’re seeing. Have your recent interisland flights felt more expensive than they used to? Have you changed which airline you fly based on price? We’d love to hear your take.