Hawaii Flights In Flux Again: The Airline Data You Haven’t Seen Yet

The landscape for Hawaii flights continues to evolve, with airlines making network shifts that will impact travelers in 2025. Two new reports, the OAG Takeoff Report, and the U.S. Department of Transportation Air Travel Consumer Report, offer fresh insights into on-time performance, cancellations, airline capacity, and evolving route strategies.

The OAG report highlights how airlines adjust their networks, with Alaska Airlines growing but still operating below 2019 levels. That was their total company performance and excludes Hawaiian Airlines, whose data is calculated separately until they achieve a joint operating certificate later this year.

At the same time, Southwest Airlines is actively scaling back Hawaii service, a significant shift since its aggressive entry into the market in 2019.

This raises concerns about whether fare competition will weaken in the months ahead. Meanwhile, the Alaska-Hawaiian merger moves closer to full integration, leaving questions about how route consolidation could impact seat availability and pricing.

With these changes in motion, here’s a closer look at the latest airline data, how it affects Hawaii flights, and what it means for travelers in 2025.

How airline performance is shifting for Hawaii flights.

The DOT’s latest report highlights notable trends in airline reliability, offering clues about which carriers are delivering the best service to Hawaii. In November 2024, Hawaiian Airlines (owned by Alaska) led the nation in on-time performance at 89.2 percent, reinforcing its reputation for operational reliability. Delta Air Lines followed closely at 88.6 percent, while Southwest Airlines posted an 86.9 percent on-time rate.

United Airlines reported an 81.8 percent on-time rate at the lower end of the scale, and Alaska Airlines came in at 81.6 percent.

These numbers suggest that while some airlines have maintained strong operational performance, others have struggled with delays that could impact Hawaii travelers.

We expect Alaska’s numbers to improve when Hawaiian Airlines’ data is combined with theirs later in 2025.

The report also showed that the overall cancellation rate across U.S. airlines in November 2024 was 0.5 percent, up from 0.1 percent the previous year. Alaska (excluding the Hawaiian brand) and United Airlines were among the carriers with the highest cancellation rates at 0.8 percent, which could indicate likely insignificant reliability concerns for passengers flying to and from Hawaii.

What does Southwest’s pullback mean for Hawaii fares?

One of the most significant shifts in Hawaii travel for 2024 has been Southwest Airlines reducing its service to the islands. The airline aggressively entered the Hawaii market in 2019 and has begun scaling back flights. This comes after years of expansion that initially helped drive down fares and increase competition against legacy carriers.

With Southwest cutting flights, there is concern that other airlines could respond by raising fares. Historically, Southwest’s presence has forced competitors to offer more competitive pricing, particularly on routes from California, where it is dominant. As Southwest rethinks its Hawaii strategy, travelers may need to look further afield to secure lower fares.

The impact of the Alaska-Hawaiian merger.

The Alaska-Hawaiian Airlines merger remains one of the most significant uncertainties in Hawaii travel. With the two airlines set to combine under a single operating certificate later in 2025, travelers are left wondering how it will reshape interisland flights, mainline routes, and loyalty programs.

Alaska Airlines has historically positioned itself as a cost-conscious carrier. Still, with Hawaiian Airlines’ higher operating costs and unique route structure, it remains unclear whether the combined airline will pass savings onto customers or seek to reduce competition in ways that lead to fare increases. What’s your guess?

One primary concern is whether route consolidation will lead to fewer flight options. Hawaiian Airlines has traditionally offered extensive service between the islands and multiple West Coast cities. At the same time, Alaska has built a loyal following with its network of flights from the Pacific Northwest and California. If the two carriers eliminate overlapping routes, some travelers may find fewer choices and higher prices.

What travelers should watch for next.

Hawaii travelers should expect continued changes as airlines reassess their strategies and unusual changes in competition evolve. The DOT report suggests that reliability varies across carriers, with Hawaiian Airlines leading in on-time performance but Alaska and United struggling with higher cancellation rates.

The downsizing of Southwest’s Hawaii operations could mark the end of its role as a disruptor of our market. Without other airlines to fill the gap, fare increases on Hawaii air routes could follow.

The Alaska-Hawaiian merger will continue to unfold, and as that happens, there will be ongoing adjustments to schedules, pricing, and frequent flyer programs. While the full effects won’t all be felt immediately, travelers should be prepared for shifts in how the combined airline serves Hawaii.

Final thoughts.

Hawaii flights are in more transition than usual, with all airlines adjusting their networks, and Southwest’s downsizing and the Alaska-Hawaiian merger adding additional layers of uncertainty. While competition may continue to help keep fares in check somewhat, the landscape for Hawaii flights is evolving, and prices could increase. We’ll continue to track airlines to give you the best advice on fares and when to buy.

What stood out the most for you in these reports?

Photo Credit – Beat of Hawaii at HNL.