For travelers and industry analysts, Hawaii is becoming harder to understand. One day, an airline announced it was leaving Hawaii altogether (JetStar), another reduced flights (Southwest), and one removed some nonstops (Alaska). Hotel rates hit new highs the next day, and then TSA broke another screening record on Memorial Day.
The signals just don’t line up. Airlines say they are cutting flights and consolidating routes. Visitor spending is soaring past pre-pandemic levels. Some repeat travelers say they’re done. But the islands are still appear to soon be packed for summer with honeymooners, bucket-listers, Instagrammers, and once-in-a-lifetime trips.
So what’s really happening? And what should travelers watch for now?
Airline pullbacks are reshaping access.
Airlines are adjusting to rising fuel costs, pilot shortages, and tighter margins on long-haul routes. Some widebody aircraft once used for Hawaii service are now being reassigned to other markets. And as industry schedules shift, more red-eye flights are added to fill the gaps.
The result is a more limited—and less comfortable—set of options for many travelers. Fewer nonstops, longer connections, and itinerary changes are becoming part of the Hawaii experience for those from the West Coast and beyond.
Hawaii visitor spending is breaking records.
Even as flights are reduced, visitor spending in Hawaii continues to climb. According to the Hawaii Department of Business, Economic Development and Tourism, total spending in the first quarter of 2025 rose 6.5 percent compared to Q1 2024, and nearly 25 percent above the same period in 2019.
These gains aren’t just about inflation. Travelers are spending more per trip. Resort fees, rental cars, and even floral lei command higher prices, and visitors still pay them.
One reason is that many Hawaii trips are tied to celebrations. Travelers on honeymoons, anniversaries, or long-delayed vacations still tend to splurge. Others use points to cover high airfare and put that savings into upgraded hotels or activities once they arrive.
First-timers keep coming, too—but some critical repeat travelers are pausing.
Hawaii has long depended on return visitors, traditionally comprising most of its tourists, especially from the West Coast. But many of those loyal travelers are now rethinking their habits.
A longtime reader from Oregon told us, “We’ve come to Hawaii 19 times over the years. This year felt different. It seemed like the magic was slipping, and everything was just more expensive and less cared for.”
That sentiment isn’t isolated. Many readers say they’re skipping a year, staying fewer nights, or choosing alternate destinations like the Cook Islands, the Caribbean, Europe, or French Polynesia.
But new travelers are still showing up. Milestone vacations, destination weddings, and family reunions are keeping demand high. Hawaii still feels fresh for those visitors, especially if they haven’t experienced the islands in years.
Europe’s rise is changing the equation for Hawaii.
While data on 2025 U.S. travel to Europe remains mixed, the surge felt real on the ground this spring. We saw large numbers of Americans across Europe—from Instagram-driven travelers to students, couples, seniors, and milestone trippers. Flights were full. Hotels packed. And in many cities, English seemed almost as familiar as the local language. Yet some indicators suggest European travel may dip slightly this year compared to 2024. Could that about-face shift end up benefiting Hawaii?
Europe’s appeal of course isn’t new. What’s changed is how directly it now competes with Hawaii. Sometimes, East Coast or Midwest travelers find cheaper fares to Paris or Rome than Honolulu or Maui. And the perception of novelty—castles, food culture, scenic trains—offers a striking contrast to repeat Hawaii visits that increasingly come with higher costs and fewer included perks.
Hawaii isn’t falling out of favor. But the all-important U.S. traveler is thinking differently. Hawaii is no longer the automatic choice. It has to compete.
Hawaii’s economy confirms the slowdown.
A new state report released May 28 confirms what many travelers already sense. Hawaii’s Department of Business, Economic Development and Tourism downgraded its 2025 economic growth projection to just 1.2 percent, down from 1.7 percent a few months ago, due to a softening tourism sector.
Visitor arrivals are now expected to decline slightly in 2025, and while spending is still rising, it’s not enough to offset broader concerns. The state says tourism-related sectors like lodging, food service, and retail have not yet returned to pre-pandemic levels. In contrast, industries like construction and health care are helping stabilize the economy.
Airline seat capacity is also projected to shrink, and this trend continues, especially with international markets. This reinforces what travelers already see: fewer flights, higher fares, and more complexity when planning Hawaii trips.
In short, the uncertainty visitors feel is now echoed by the state’s economic forecasts.
The disconnect is defining the moment.
What makes this Hawaii travel moment so hard to interpret is that multiple things are true at once.
Airlines are pulling back, even as demand persists. They’re determined not to lose money and are increasingly erring on the side of fewer flights, choosing financial certainty over risk. The result is continued upward pressure on airfare to Hawaii and beyond. In some cases, travelers flying from Hawaii to Europe this spring paid nearly twice what they did the year before.
Prices are rising, even as some longtime travelers take a pause. Visitor volume remains high, but so do questions about value. The trends don’t move in one direction. They contradict each other at every turn.
And yet, for many, Hawaii is still worth it. The ocean hasn’t changed, and sunsets still stop people in their tracks. But the experience now demands more planning, more patience, and often, more money than ever before.
What Hawaii travelers should keep in mind.
Travelers should expect fewer deals this summer and fall, though some pricing variability will remain as the industry tries to gauge which way the wind is blowing. Nonstop options may be more limited. Airline schedule changes are becoming more frequent, especially on non-West Coast routes. Rental car prices and resort fees vary widely by island and booking window. The best rule? Don’t get locked in too early, and keep checking.
It pays to stay flexible and proactive if you’re planning a Hawaii trip now. Check airfare regularly and consider alternate airports if your route now has stops or higher fares. Book activities and car rentals early, especially during peak travel periods. As your trip approaches, reconfirm all your reservation details—costs, schedules, and access rules have been shifting quickly. Don’t get locked into deals that could improve later.
Also, consider your timing. Travel between September and early November may bring better value and fewer crowds than midsummer. And where you stay matters. Look for properties and businesses actively reinvesting in service, experience, and community, because those are more likely to deliver a satisfying trip.
This isn’t the Hawaii of five or ten years ago.
The rules have changed, much like everywhere else, but the islands’ pull remains strong. For those willing to adapt, the experience can still be unforgettable.
Let us know what you’re seeing. Are you heading to Hawaii this year, or sitting it out? Your insights help others navigate what’s becoming the most complex travel landscape Hawaii has ever seen.
Beat of Hawaii editors will be reporting firsthand from Lanai, Molokai, the Big Island, Maui, Oahu, and Kauai throughout the summer. We’re watching it unfold right alongside you.
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We are looking elsewhere again this year. The uncertainty of STRs on Maui and the lack of Aloha has us cruising in Alaska this year. Hawaii keeps raising its taxes and fees on everything which makes it undesirable as a vacation destination. We’ve vacationed there for over 40 years, but we’re very disillusioned with recent moves by the State and its mayors. I just hope those moves don’t permanently harm the wonderful people of Hawaii.
Pay attention Hawaii. The cost to visit Hawaii and Tokyo is the same. Tokyo food, rooms and transportation costs are lower. Tokyo Airfare is higher. We compared our 2023 Hawaii expenses to our 2025 Tokyo expenses. George and Aida.
We share many of the concerns expressed here, but still plan on returning to Maui this summer and again in January. Using miles, we scored good fares via Alaska and Hawaiian. We’ve stayed in the same condo for years and love where we stay. All the locals we come in contact with couldn’t be friendlier and more appreciative. You couldn’t give me a free trip to Mexico, which has become a dangerous narco state. Europe? Meh. We’ll keep coming back to Hawaii until those in charge drive us away. We haven’t reached that point yet.
Spending is up because everything seems to be 30% higher than when we were here 3 years ago. We can only afford it because we have free accommodations per sitting and we shop at Costco. Restaurant prices are ridiculous-150.00 per person at least at better restaurants for dinner. Even the more casual places have raised their prices.
My family have been regular visitors to Hawaii for 40 years. We have agreed that we will not be planning an annual trip for 2026. We spent time on Kauai and Maui earlier this year. The magic seems to be gone. We did not feel the Aloha Spirit and certainly didn’t return home with the Aloha Spirit. We have not felt Aloha Spirit since pre-pandemic.
Airfares keep rising and are less convenient . Lodging costs have gone up and up. On Maui, where we typically go, the short term rental debate is confusing. Are we welcome? Are we depriving a local of a home? We’ve reached the tipping point where Hawaii is no longer worth our vacation dollars.
However, in a few years, the beaches and sunsets may call to us.
I’m on Maui right now, and it’s 6th trip over Memorial Day week. First time back since the fires.
This is normally a quiet period after Memorial Day, but it’s much more quiet than ever before. More like October than summer. It’s really slow at Kaanapali: easy to get chairs in the shade by the pool or reserve a cabana at the last minute. Whalers parking is plentiful. Restaurant prices are up, menu selection is down and food quality is widely variable but mostly down.
Locals in the stores are very welcoming.
How does Hawaii know how much each or a specific individual is spending while visiting Hawaii? Is Hawaii tracking peoples credit card numbers with card holders information? Is the card left on file at hotel for incidentals reported to the state? Tracking approval amounts associated from a specific card and the frequency used?
IMO maybe some people are engaging in going to Hawaii while it is in their financial grasps. This one time thought releases the spend more and do it right attitude as the future may spell Financially Unaffordable, Impossible, as Hawaii gets more expensive. I also wonder how much of a problem US citizens leaving the US and coming back through Customs has to do with the popularity of Hawaii right now. IMO I think US citizens are a little afraid to leave the country right now. It’s not about leaving it’s coming back in.
Hawaii is in the U.S. No border issues.
I forgot to mention coming back into the USA from example Tahiti,Mexico,Europe,Caribbean, Canada and such. Not back into the US from Hawaii.
We just got back from spending 2 weeks in Hanalei. You can’t beat eating dinner at The Nui or looking at Puff the Magic Dragon from the end of the Hanalei Pier.
Just came back, going back in Sept, only because it’s home. When the last of the ohana is gone, not sure I’ll be back much… Better to keep the memories of what it used to be like alive vs the current reality…
Best Regards
The adage “the only thing constant is change” definitely applies to Hawaii. Sure, Hawaii isn’t the same as it was 5, 10, 20 years ago, but what is? Some frequent Hawaii visitors are disappointed in the changes, but for first timers, it’s a great experience. It’s just like when you visit anywhere for the first time- it is what it is. It may not be what it used to be, but for you it’s a new experience, one to be enjoyed. So it is with Hawaii. Visitors who complain are usually returnees, not first timers. So, the key is to be flexible, knowing things will be different, and accepting it for what it is, not what it used to be.
Hawaii Travel Is Booming, Stalling, And Changing—All At Once
Here’s who’s not returning to Hawaii:
Senior retires on fixed incomes who’s retirement resources haven’t kept up with inflation and higher cost of travel.
Here’s who is coming to Hawaii:
Successful Millennials mostly single women and Millennial couples that have just 1 or 2 kids.
Baby Boomer grandparents who invested wisely instead of waiting to die they’re spending some of their kids inheritance on big Hawaiian family vacations.
Hawaiian Corporate Conventions are back during our stay in early May in Wailea there were big conventions at all the resorts.
And finally weddings in the 30 plus years of coming to Hawaii I’ve never witnessed this many resort weddings. These folks are dropping 100k plus dollars on these weddings.
So yes Hawaii travel has changed if you’re a budget traveler you are out if you’re a big budget resort stay traveler, Welcome To Hawaii.
Oh yes. Tourism is up. No lines in Costco or the Costco gas station.
A lot fewer restaurants but no reservations required.
But keep up the reporting that helps the HTA feel they’re doing great.
Spending up?? Like that’s a good thing. It is for HTA.
Number of tourists are fewer just spending more for everything.
Lahaina strong missing 100 million? Loyal tourists provided those contributions to endure the boiling over of racism and bigotry now so ever present.
For the first time ever, we’re skipping our Hawaii trip and going to Portugal instead. The math just made more sense this year. We’ll be back though, just giving it a break.
Interesting that I hadn’t really thought about how Europe is now competing so directly with Hawaii. Trip planning is all different now, whether Hawaii or not.
We visited Kauai in March. Loved it, even between resort costs and fees and food costs which caused us to burn through money faster than we expected. It was still a peak vacation.
Maybe this is what the new Hawaii is going to look like going forward—where demand stays high even as other aspects move sideways. I hope the state starts to notice what’s happening and take better care of tourism before travelers drift away for good.
This really captured how I feel planning our next Big Island trip. Hawaii still calls to us big time, but I’m watching fares, fees, and everything a lot more carefully than I ever used to. Travel has gotten so weird anyway.
It’s weird to watch nonstop flights to Hawaii disappear at the same time as hotels fill up and charge more. Doesn’t make sense to me. Thanks for helping explain what’s really happening.
I’ve been waiting since 2020 to finally get back to Maui, and it was totally worth it. Expensive? Absolutely. But I wouldn’t trade that Haleakala sunrise for anything and overall we had the best time ever.
We just got back from the Big Island, and I agree—it felt both amazing and a little off. Prices were up, but the beaches were still as magical as ever. I don’t know if we’ll go again next year though. Seems everything more up in the air than it used to be. We still love Hawaii!
“And where you stay matters. Look for properties and businesses actively reinvesting in service, experience, and community, because those are more likely to deliver a satisfying trip.”
How will a visitor be able to tell what an accommodation is reinvesting in, and how will it make any difference in their trip being more satisfying, other that just the idea of it?
All types of accommodations I know of actively reinvest in their community, other businesses, improving guest experience, etc. They have to, in order to compete and be successful themselves.
So what magic words should guests look for? Maybe steer clear of hotels, who predominantly reinvest in themselves?