Hawaii travel is behaving differently as we move into 2026, and we have been watching it unfold in real time. Prices remain high almost everywhere, yet pockets of availability and better pricing are opening in places we have never seen before. These shifts are not tied to season or holiday timing. They are happening because demand is softening unevenly, and it is changing how trips come together. Visitors take note.
Unexpected availability and pricing start appearing.
The first sign came as an odd surprise when we finally secured a reservation at Mama’s Fish House after years of never finding an opening. Then we booked Volcano House accommodation dates that had been unavailable to us on every prior attempt. Honolulu added its own surprise when a last-minute holiday period booking produced an accommodation rate under $200 a night, including taxes and fees. None of these required tricks, being a resident, or insider timing. They were simply available by scrutinizing offerings more than usual.
This is what a softer year ahead looks like on the ground. Rooms and tables open briefly, then disappear again. Prices do not drop as visitors expect. There are no big sales, but there are quiet ones that change the plans. Hotels generally hold published rates even as they manage leaner staffing. Activities try to tighten schedules rather than discounting. The availability shifts, but the pricing logic does not. There are definite gaps that yield better deals.
Why the data lines up with what we are seeing.
UHERO’s new forecast mirrors what we are seeing. Visitor numbers are dipping, but not enough to push rates down. Airlines respond by trimming capacity wherever possible rather than lowering fares. Hotels keep labor tight when occupancy becomes less predictable. Costs that rose in recent years are not falling back, so at least the baseline pricing stays firm. And yet there are regularly $129-$139 round-trip airfares out there for those who scour for them.
UHERO also points to one number that helps explain the split we are watching. Maui visitor spending rose 12% in October. That single increase puts Maui ahead of both Oahu and the Big Island, which helps explain why availability looks so different from island to island right now, as it keeps fluctuating.
The islands are not moving in the same direction.
Maui is stabilizing faster than expected and is now outperforming Oahu despite everything that happened after the fires. Kauai remains steady with few sharp changes either way. Oahu shows the most softness, and that is where flight adjustments and tight hotel operations appear first. The Big Island is also running quieter and more unevenly than usual.
For travelers, this means that 2026 will not offer a single statewide pattern. Instead, the experience you find on Maui may not match what you encounter on Oahu. Kauai feels different again, too. Visitors cannot rely on past assumptions or recent searches regarding how Hawaii behaves year to year because the islands are separating rather than moving together, and the results are highly uneven.
Planning a Hawaii vacation in this shifting moment.
For those preparing for travel to Hawaii in 2026, the takeaway is not that Hawaii will suddenly become a bargain or that availability will open across the board. The more realistic view is that timing matters in a way it has not for years. And so too does vigorous and continuing research. Once impossible reservations may appear briefly, but you might have to keep checking options to find them. Last minute bookings are almost certain to work better than before. At the same time, flight options overall may be narrower, and hotel service may continue to feel stretched.
Hotels in Hawaii, as across the US, have been cutting the time they spend caring for guests even as wages rise, and that shift is definitely showing up here. It explains why availability sometimes opens up while service still feels worse than it did a few years ago. Hotels where we expect to have daily service have switched to every other day, for example. It’s in the fine print, too, if you go digging.
UHERO provided the numbers behind these changes that we are seeing in real-time. What we are experiencing is the lived version of them. Hawaii travel in 2026 is behaving differently by island, by week, and sometimes by the day.
Are you noticing these shifts as you plan your 2026 trips to Hawaii?
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I was born and raised on Oahu. I went to college and grad school on the mainland, then stayed for the work. I probably came back 40 times since I graduated high school. Each time, particularly since covid, I felt more and more unwelcome — my home had become an unwelcoming and expensive resort and I was nickled and dimed for everything. No more. I recently retired and I decided to move to Europe where normal people and visit and travel and you don’t have to be a millionaire just to visit one time. Sad.
That’s a very interesting observation that you were able to secure a reservation to Mama’s fish House. In the first two weeks of November could not find even a single day where you could call and see if you could be seated if somebody canceled. However in the past and I’m talking about 10 years ago it was pretty easy to get a reservation in a few days time. The question is was tourism a lot lower about 6 to 10 years ago then it is now? So it would seem that over tourism is still occurring on Maui based on this observation.
It’s also possible that alternatives to Mama’s fish House have closed down and this is the only game in town as far as for special occasions.
Simple someone must have made reservations. Walked in. Saw the menu prices and cancelled their reservation. I looked at the online menu and it isn’t cheap. Way out of me or my wife’s price range. Everything looked locally caught and fresh. Maybe one of those deals where you pay premium prices just to get the experience.
Who wants to spend their whole vacation glued to a cellphone and checking if some impossible restaurant suddenly has a reservation opening. Wait there’s a beach parking opening. No a Maui sunset parking lot opening. No a big Island volcano parking lot opening. Please if you live in Hawaii that’s one thing but to battle with thousands of tourist’s for a reservation. If it took years just to find an opening then open the wallet wide because the experience won’t be cheap. For Hawaii to say slow down relax and take it all in is IMO impossible when everything you do needs a scheduled appointment or reservation.
Sounds awful. Like a tour fully organized up to the minute. See all of Europe in 6 days. The Hawai’i I knew you kicked back, made some tentative plans and moved at a slow, enjoyable pace. That was the whole reason for a vacation, to enjoy, learn something new, experience the area so you can appreciate it. To be honest, I lay much of the blame on the resorts that want to each be the one stop shop, keep you on the property and most importantly keep your money on the property. Keep you entertained. Also, part of the blame is social media telling these young people what they have to see to get a shot for “clicks” not to embrace the area. The more in a day the better. No, I’ll just stay home and remember what it should be.
Interesting article. Price breaks do come and go. Couple personal recommendations from a resident:
1. Hotel: Clean, newish hotel Queen Kapiolani on Kapahulu ~1.5 blocks from Waikiki Beach gives Kamaaina 50% off rates, putting a high-end luxury hotel into reach. Caveats: rooms are on the small side, but good views. Decor is their strongest point: Mid-Century Modern to the max, and elegantly done. For Mid-Mod. fans it’s a fine place to hang. Skip breakfast/other buffets–crazy expensive.
2. Dining: Shore Fyre in the International Marketplace has a reasonably priced item for meat lovers: the Hibachi Steak ($15 reg., $12.50 Happy Hour). Great price for such tender, well-seasoned beef (w/ mushrooms and onions–couple bucks extra for a scoop of fried rice). Add a great Caesar salad ($15) to get full. Yummy Virgin Pina Colada is not too sickly sweet (unlike everywhere else). Good views on lanai railing seating over Kalakaua (people watching). Fast service-friendly staff. Talk to them.