A new survey from Hawaii Public Radio and Holomua Collective landed like a punch in the gut when we read it. It found that about 75% of middle-income households in Hawaii either expect they will have to leave the islands or are seriously considering it because of the high cost of living. That is three out of four people who make the day-to-day Hawaii you know work.
Middle income in Hawaii is not wealthy. It is hotel supervisors, restaurant managers, teachers, nurses, mechanics, and the small business people you meet behind the lunch counter or check-in desk. They do everything from keeping rooms clean, food coming, and businesses and planes running.
If they can no longer afford to live here, it raises an uncomfortable question for visitors who feel stretched too. If Hawaii is driving out its own middle class, what chance does a middle-class visitor have of continuing to afford the Hawaii vacation they remember? See The Vanishing Middle Class of Hawaii Travel.
Behind that 75% number is a simple math problem. Hawaii housing costs remain punishing whether you rent or buy. Groceries, too, are priced like luxury goods. Utilities and all forms of insurance keep stepping up, including some of the highest electric rates in the country. Those costs do not disappear for visitors who arrive for a week either. They are simply condensed into one intense and expensive stretch of Hawaii vacation days.
What Hawaii’s middle-class exodus means for travelers.
For years now, our comment inbox has been filled with some version of the same message. “We are just regular people. We love Hawaii, but we are starting to feel like it is no longer for us.”
You are seeing the same forces that are pushing Hawaii’s middle class off the islands show up in your vacation budget. Our reporting in Hawaii shipping costs jump showed how rising freight expenses work their way into every hotel breakfast, restaurant meal, and grocery run.
Labor follows the same pattern. When middle-income workers cannot afford housing anywhere near resort areas, they leave the industry or leave the islands entirely. That leads to shorter operating hours, fewer mid-tier dining options, longer waits, and service that can feel stretched. Many businesses try to survive by shifting upward into luxury pricing or downward into volume, leaving less in the relaxed middle where the majority of past Hawaii trips lived.
Middle-class visitors feel all of this. The midrange hotel that once felt like a treat now prices like a splurge. Condos that once felt like a smart value are now just too expensive. Activities that used to seem like normal parts of a Hawaii vacation now surprise people with unavoidable sticker prices.
So the question is changing. It is not only about whether residents can afford to stay. It is whether Hawaii is moving toward a future where only the very wealthy can vacation the way they expect, while everyone else shortens trips, shifts to another island, or quietly stays away.
Signs the destination is changing.
Visitors do not track data sets like this. Instead, they notice what has changed.
In Waikiki, restaurant operators say business is the worst in two years, even before the holidays. At the same time, their costs keep rising. Some of these businesses will close. Others will lean heavily into high-margin cocktails and resort pricing that can feel out of reach for the same middle-class visitors who once felt comfortable eating there. The reality of restaurants struggling has been going on for years but it is accelerating.
Lodging tells a similar story. Mid-tier hotels are sold or renovated upward into higher-end product. Places that once felt like normal, comfortable, moderate Hawaii hotels now price like boutique luxury. What replaces them in the lower price range is often older inventory, less service and housekeeping, or fees stacked on top of already elevated rates.
Service reflects another side of the same issue. Longtime staff who used to greet repeat visitors by name have moved away or changed industries. New employees commute longer distances and juggle multiple jobs while trying to stay ahead of their own bills. Visitors may not see that strain directly, but they often feel it in slower service, fewer open hours, and reduced staffing.
The Hawaii many people remember was never completely inexpensive. But, the Hawaii being shaped today is becoming something entirely different.
Are you pricing yourself out of your favorite destination.
If you are a middle-class visitor reading that middle-class residents may leave Hawaii, it is reasonable to consider what this means for your own travel.
If four or five hundred dollars per night feels high today for a hotel that is good but not special, what happens after the next round of cost increases moves through the system? If the cost of doing business is rising for residents and companies, how long before the next increase reaches room rates or breakfast bills.
Some readers have already adjusted. The reactions in why you are staying away from the Hawaii you love showed how deeply people feel the widening gap between what a Hawaii vacation costs and what it delivers.
There is no judgment in this. The comments mirror the same economic pressures residents describe when they look at their housing or grocery costs and decide whether they can remain.
If Hawaii continues on a path where middle-income residents leave and middle-income visitors feel squeezed out, the destination will shift. It could become more polarized, with ultra-luxury at one end, bare-minimum value options at the other, and far less of the casual middle that defined so many classic Hawaii vacations.
Does middle-class Hawaii travel have a future?
Hawaii’s middle class has always been the foundation of your trip, even if you didn’t realize it. They are also a mirror for middle-class visitors who are also trying to hang on to an annual or every-other-year Hawaii vacation. When three out of four say they may have to leave, it is more than a local story. It is a warning about the entire trajectory ahead.
People still love Hawaii. Many of you tell us you feel caught between that emotional pull and the numbers on your travel budget. We hear the same thing from friends and family who live here. We are caught in the same dilemma when traveling around the islands. The very idea of island hopping for residents comes at a higher price than before.
We welcome your input.
Lead Photo – Island of Kauai from the plane © Beat of Hawaii.
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A lot of what is happening in Hawaii lies at the feet of state govt. From a light rail system that doesnt even reach the airport to runways that dont seem to stay fixed, Hawaiians need to elect people that are going to change things for the better. For example, solar power. Hawaii needs more of it to lessen electrical costs for residents and businesses. Maybe more agriculture to grow more local food and decrease imported food prodcuts. But you need people in govt who can and will do this. Im from CA, and just look at our mess. We have a governor and legislature who dont care about the average citizen and that’s why business and middle class are leaving CA as well. Until sensible people elect people who know how to run a govt, you have only yourselves to blame
Because you don’t like California you move from the frying pan into the fire?
Well, all I can say is, the residents voted those idiots into state government, and now they are seeing the results.
This doesn’t end well.
The Caribbean islands consist of “fortress” resorts surrounded by sad, poverty, crime, and drug riddled slums.
Without drastic reform Hawaii is done.
sadly, hawaii is (and has been for a decade now…) either really rich or really poor. all the middle class has been “priced out of paradise”, the ones hanging on cant hang much longer. while immigrants, homeless and druggies get housing, subsidies, and ebt, the rest of us cut corners, tighten belts, and go without. *I* have to pass a p test to hold my job and pay Into the system, but the recipients dont need to pass one to take money Out? we can fix our economy with a few things– #1 All recipients of ebt drug test. no pass/no $$$. –#2 seriously? no self voted in 61% pay raise for our lawmakers. thats ridiculous. –#3 stop wasting money on that stupid rail. –#4 how is it that young bros isnt in violation of the RICO act? they raised prices 4 times in the last 6 years. Just those 4 things alone would save billions.
Sadly this article is true, I’ve lived on Maui for 43 years and never thought about leaving until recently. I’m retired with No mortgage however the current maintenance costs are higher than my previous mortgage. Healthcare is terrible, groceries and insurance are still rising, utilities are crazy expensive. Crime is Out Of Control, theft & car theft occurs Daily and the police Do Nothing! I could go on but it’s just too Sad!! My forever dream may be over!
Even better, money stayed local b/c both residents and STVR guests purchase in the area where they work, live and lodge, not near the resorts.
Because the hotel lobby has spread false propaganda about STVRs being the cause of the housing shortage across America—and b/c people have unwittingly bought into—the money earned by hotels goes to corporations off island.
Now that the hotels won—practically did away with mom and pop STVRs—the hotels are getting into STVRs b/c they’re allowed to do so in the resort zones.
Of course middle class residents can’t afford housing in resort areas—they’re designed for the uber wealthy.
And it’s not just housing that’s a problem. Think of the added commute and gas burden for resident resort workers coming from Hilo and beyond.
When STVRs were allowed to operate properly, middle class residents worked close to home—many employed by those mom and pop STVRs, were paid better than at the resorts, and had more time to themselves.
Yes, the middle class are leaving and have been for a very along time, my in-laws left Oahu after high school in the early 50’s leaving their parents and family. In California they started a successful business but would return to the island often.
Opportunities are in tourism and small business you open around tourism. There nothing magical that will happen, Apple isn’t opening a campus in Hawaii. Until the Hawaiian government embraces its one business it will continue to struggle and local’s will struggle as well, there is no magic to change this situation but it is a great business.
I’m gonna say the quiet part out loud – given the huge hikes in rates and fees vs. inflation and reasonable price increase expectations, how much is going to the hotel’s front-line workers? How much is simply paying debt service to the hotel’s greedy owners?
Anyway, shocking, extraordinary costs at HWV, Denise K. Takes me back to my own couple of visits there, both in the mid-late ’90s, and even to the property next door which in the mid ’90s was an Outrigger before it was a Marriott. “A Bay” is beautiful, a dream scene straight out of a postcard, but those prices for the adjacent Hilton Waikoloa are a nightmare, just as I’ve noticed so many reviews have claimed it’s become ‘run down’ on top of the excessive costs, fees and the always difficult ‘trekking’ required to get around the property between the tram, the boat, and just plain walking (we liked the latter and of course the slides and lagoon, but the time required to get around did become tiresome)
The “greedy” owners are not doing so well, despite the massive increase in room rates. I see a lot of hotel income statements in my line of work. Besides the flagship beachfront properties in Waikiki, a lot of hotels have pretty weak cash flow and net income. Labor costs, property tax, and property insurance have skyrocketed in the last 5 years. On top of that, most hotels have mortgages with big monthly payments. And on top of that, most Waikiki hotels have ground leases with ever-increasing ground rents.
You raise some reasonable ideas here. But, you’re not 100% right. None of us have all the answers to what might preserve or ‘reinvent’ Hawaii as an affordable place to live or visit. In fact, maybe it really never was, and other factors contributed to an artificially low cost of traveling or living there. An honest economist/historian/futurist combo could maybe figure it all out. But for now? Start with some lower regulations yes, but forget about any that enrich those who are already rich enough and anything that minimizes the importance of Hawaii’s rich environment, its waters, its land, its mountains.
Wake up! ‘Modern’ consumerist living is expensive. It’s also extremely destructive to the planet and to our mental and physical well being in many ways. Back to basics could help all in terms of living better lives. Maybe Hawaii’s ‘rebirth’ could lead us all back to more sensible, resilient lifestyles. But it cannot continue ‘as is’ for long. For sure.
very valid points, I appreciate you looking at this from a different perspective. the approach and opinion are very welcome. modern consumerism is not sustainable at all, whether it’s everyday living or periodic travel.
Like most, we love Hawaii and have traveled to, and stayed on, all 6 islands multiple times. However, our last trip to Maui might have been our last to any of the Islands. It was shockingly expensive. Prices have risen dramatically in only a couple of years.
And it’s not just the price increases. It’s also the price gouging of travelers. For example, we stopped along the road to take a quick picture of the Nakalele Blowhole, and were shocked to learn there was a $17 charge (plus fees) to park. But no charge for residents. This is nothing more than robbery. This is only one example of how the Hawaiian Islands have become hostile toward travelers. I could list many that we encountered during our one week stay.
The prices have always been high, but not astronomical like they are now. For everything. Example: We paid over $11 for a small shave ice. We felt like Hawaii no longer wants visitors. So we will spend our money elsewhere. Some place where we feel welcome.
So, so sorry this is happening. Those of us who love Hawaii and its people for what they truly are have witnessed Hawaii’s pain for a while. We certainly saw it coming, but that doesn’t give most of us any joy at all.
The dream of a middle class Hawaii – a vacation that’s a ‘stretch’ but worth it – is gone. I’ve been more than 30 times across 30 years, to all the main islands, even Molokai once. We just can’t afford it anymore. Our growing family is priced out of paradise and the genuine wonder and peace that a Hawaii vacation together once offered.
We do have family in the islands, but they won’t be seeing much of us unless we can stay with them. Hawaii has fallen off our annual or bi-annual or even 5-year map for any travel plans.
The dream is done. Now, the ultra-wealthy will swoop in and buy property, lifestyles, the future lives of so many islanders, native, relocated, and otherwise. If you voted for or sanctioned this via your own lives – you got your wish.
If they are thinking of leaving Hawaii for California, they may want to think again. It’s just as bad here. The cost of utilities and insurance has skyrocketed, not to speak of $4.70 for a gallon of gas. A small 1400 foot tract home in our neighborhood just listed for $730,000.
Too many questions and complaints, but where are the HI leaders to offer solutions?
Start with ending Jones Act. Then end the inter-island shipping monopoly you just wrote about.
Then balance the state budget and cut bureaucracy and spending. Consider eliminating State income tax like NV, FL, WA and several other states. Incentivise businesses and individuals to help diversify economy and invest in things other than just real estate, whether it’s infrastructure or agriculture. Stop favoring “uncles” and help real entrepreneurs and those who look after Hawaii’s best interest, not their own.
I’ll vote for you.
We just got back from Waikaloa on Hawaii. We were last there 13 years ago. We go to Kauai every year but used some points for big island. We most likely will not be back. We checked Roy’s for dinner one night. It was 85.00 for a chicken dish. Are you serious? Needless to say we did not eat there. The hotel seemed short on employees as well. The ones working were awesome but easy to see that they were burned out. It has lost what we loved when we went before. It saddens me but I did manta ray snorkel which was something I always wanted to do. Also, it was 75.00 a night to park and resort fees! Unbelievable! So bye Big Island. Loved you. Back to Kauai where at least with our timeshare costs are a little easier to bear. Mahalo.
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I feel for the locals that are being priced out of their own community. That same phenomenon is also happening in areas of the continent, but nothing like we see in Hawaii. I just don’t see how this can end well for the islands. If the middle class is forced to move away, that just creates more economic strain that turns into a doom loop. Is a “crash” imminent, or is it just more slow bleeding for a long time to come? And after, what will be the new equilibrium that survives? The doom loop won’t just be with the local economy, but also with culture and connections. What, if anything, can change this trajectory? Maybe nothing, if it’s past the point of no return. Hope I’m wrong, and maybe I am. Hawaii is special and I wish the best for the locals.
What used to be Paradise is now “Paradise Lost”. When people have to work 2 or 3 jobs just to be able to afford life’s basic necessities it destroys any illusion of paradise one gets when they think of Hawaii. Normal middle to upper middle class people who just want to have a couple weeks of serenity and separation from the rat race of everyday life don’t want to be stressed about the cost of the trip and they don’t want to have to pay and schedule times when they can relax on a beach or be fined if you go over your time limit. These are the things people go to Hawaii to escape from. No one wants to have to have a spread sheet to keep track of fees so they can decide whether or not they can afford the trip. The elected “leaders” have placed Hawaii in a downward spiral and when it crashes they are going to want the federal government to bail them out.
What is the average annual gross/net income for a middle class in Hawaii?
According to most measures to live “comfortably” in Hawaii as a single person you need to make anywhere between 150-180k a year.
And it would also be interesting to know how many jobs / industries pay salaries close to that range.
Great article.
The housing market in Hawaii is totally absurd. It is in a huge bubble that is already beginning to deflate, and is accelerating downwards.
Condo prices have already tanked. Some are down nearly 50%. The main problem is unreasonable property taxes. If you are a full-time resident, taxes are acceptable, but if your condo is a part-time residence, property taxes will be over $1,000 per month, even if you don’t rent it out. My neighbors used to pay $3,000 per year. That has risen to over $12,000 recently. When you add in HOA fees over $15,000 per year, you are looking at $27,000 per year even if you don’t visit. Many properties are double this or more.
Wow, is this Maui, Kauai, Oahu, Big Island, or does it matter? Just curious because you are honestly talking about “5-percenter” wealth that would be needed to support this in a second home. (According to Investopedia, more than $250k per year, likely higher now as these are 2022 figures) And that doesn’t make it a good investment.
I know lots of such people exist, and more every day during the present administration, but those numbers on taxes (not to mention annual maintenance/HOAs which must be skyrocketing too) fit only multi-millionaires in net worth, if not in income, if considering these homes as part-time only.
If these figures are true, you truly now have the wealthy enclaves that many investors plus Zuckerberg, Ellison, and others have been seeking. For us, by us, with lots of FOMO from their fellow tech bros and sisters.
Just not sure the Hawaiian people are getting what they want in a land they once called ‘aina’ that’s quickly becoming a painful memory.
Hawaii has some of the lowest property taxes in the country. The rate for non-owner occupant is 0.40% for the first $1,000,000
Don’t you mean for owner-occupants? Do “non-owner occupants” even pay property taxes? Wouldn’t that make them renters?
My property taxes as an owner occupant are $1,000 per year. My next-door neighbor pays more than $12,000 per year and uses her condo for 1-2 months per year. The rest of the year it sits empty.