Fallout from Maui’s proposed vacation rental ban is spreading—even before a final vote occurs. Residents and visitors are caught in the crossfire between a bold housing plan and a defiant tourism economy. Cleaning crews are losing work, units sit unsold, and some longtime travelers are canceling trips. Meanwhile, Mayor Richard Bissen is doubling down, calling the ban a moral responsibility despite warnings of economic harm.
The University of Hawaii Economic Research Organization, UHERO, released its report estimating that Maui could lose up to 1,900 jobs and $900 million in annual visitor spending if the vacation rental phase-out is implemented. It could also mean $60 million less in property tax revenue by 2029. But for Bissen, the focus remains squarely on housing and residents’ quality of life.
The mayor stays the course.
Bissen acknowledged the report’s importance but argued it doesn’t capture the lived experiences of Maui residents. He pointed to families crowded into multigenerational homes, workers commuting long distances, and the island’s worsening housing crisis. Bissen’s message is that economics is part of the conversation, but that doesn’t decide the outcome.
“Delaying action only makes those challenges more severe,” Bissen said. “This phase-out is not anti-tourism—it is pro-resident. It aligns with our community plans, our zoning laws, and the clear, consistent message we’ve heard from the people of Maui: our residents must come first.” —Maui Mayor Bissen
A deeper cut than expected.
The short-term rental ban would target about 7,200 units across Maui County, most concentrated in West Maui and some in South Maui. These are legal rentals rather than rogue operators. Many are part of the so-called Minatoya List—a group of apartment-zoned condos grandfathered in for short-term use after rules changed in 1989. These units have long been a cornerstone of Maui’s vacation rental market, and their removal could significantly impact both the tourism economy and housing availability.
The UHERO report predicts that converting these units could increase the housing supply by more than 6,000 units, or about 13%—the equivalent of 10 years of new construction. At the same time, it could cause condo prices to fall by 20 to 40%. That tradeoff is at the heart of the debate.
The ripple effects begin.
Local cleaning and property management businesses report a downturn even before a vote. Many have started pivoting to residential cleaning or construction-related services. While some are finding success in new niches, others face stiff competition and income loss. The broader economic impact is becoming harder to ignore.
A chilling effect on tourism.
Maui welcomed 2.3 million visitors in 2024, fewer than in 2019 and 2023. Spending also dipped compared to last year. Maui had the most vacation rental nights available in the state and the second-highest daily rates, but occupancy fell by more than 10%—the steepest decline among the counties. The decline in occupancy and spending highlights growing uncertainty among travelers and the potential economic ripple effects of the proposed ban.
One frequent visitor, Cheryl T, shared with BOH, “Due to the uncertainty on Maui we’ve shifted our travel to other islands. We will not stay in a hotel environment so our choice of destination has a lot to do with that.”
Another longtime Maui guest and commenter, Chris, added, “We canceled our month-long rental after all of this started. It will take us years to trust the Maui government again.”
These comments reflect a growing frustration and uncertainty among Maui’s loyal repeat visitors, many of whom are reconsidering their future trips.
Residents speak up.
While some residents support the move as a long-overdue correction to housing policy, others worry the plan goes too far, too fast. The proposed change would begin on July 1 for West Maui and on January 1, 2026, for the rest of the county.
Maui vacation rental managers described to us how the uncertainty has upended the market. Bookings dried up following the mayor’s announcement, forcing some owners to open their units to fire survivors or significantly discount them. Even then, financial pressures mounted, and some properties were eventually listed for sale, with some units sitting on the market before finally selling. Property managers believe the proposed solution may do more harm than good.
No clear timeline.
The Maui County Council is expected to take up Bill 9 after the fiscal year 2026 budget process concludes in May or June. It has not yet indicated whether the phase-out timeline will change.
The Maui budget director recently confirmed that the phase-out wasn’t factored into the upcoming fiscal plan, and any tax revenue losses would not be felt until 2026. Still, the policy’s potential impact is already being priced into decisions by owners, renters, and travelers.
One frequent Beat of Hawaii reader, Ernie, said, “Our planned anniversary trip may be our last visit to Maui. And that breaks my heart. We’ve felt so connected to that place, to that exact spot where we could wake up to the ocean and still cook our own meals. Honestly, it stings.”
Bigger questions ahead.
For now, the debate hinges on whether Maui’s long-term housing crisis justifies this level of economic risk. Bissen says it does. Economists are urging caution, and some suggest alternative policies like taxing vacant homes, offering conditional rental licenses, or phasing out rentals over time to avoid a shock.
But the mayor is not backing down. He says, “Protecting our people and preserving our quality of life is not just good policy—it’s a moral responsibility.”
For travelers, the question is no longer just where to stay—it’s whether their future Maui vacation rental will be legal, available, and whether they are truly welcome.
Let us know if this has already changed your Maui plans or if you’re watching the council’s next move before deciding on future vacation travel.
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Maui local families living in multigenerational homes cannot afford the real estate property values in Maui. Is the cause vacation rentals? How does Mayor Bissen’s plan to reduce property values to prices that locals can afford? My friends whose homes were lost in the Lahaina fires can’t afford to rebuild. Several have moved to the mainland. We put our condo on the market and it sold for over $5M. Is Bissen’s plan to reduce this condo value to $500k? $1M? It won’t happen. He and the Governor have simply thrown a grenade into the room to watch where the shrapnel falls. I believe this is a political move to gain support from locals. The irony is that the locals are hurting – no jobs, no housing and infrastructure tanking. Other than Lahaina strong, a small number of supporters, I don’t know any locals that support this program. They are nearly all suffering. Bissen – you are barking up the wrong tree!
Exactly Lucy. I don’t know anyone that voted for the mayor or governor. Lahaina Strong is a small group compared to the rest of us residents. No one will benefit from this. Fema is already cutting back, only extended some assistance for another year. Our cost of living even if lowered 25% is too high for people to live if on welfare. Therefore it won’t even benefit the lower class. The only jobs that pay a decent living have been hospitality. If hotel company’s were forced to give full time jobs in order to provide medical insurance, locals wouldn’t need multiple jobs. They skirt paying by limiting work days. This is a distraction to keep focus off the way the Lahaina fire was handled and the hotels being the ones to benefit from all of this.
I have owned my unit in South Maui for 39 years. I visit 4 months and rent the rest of the year. My unit is beautiful but not acceptable for families, ie, 1 parking place, no storage for bikes or kids stuff, very little storage in unit, price way too high for long term rental for all those families the major is talking about ‘who will no longer have jobs when he takes away the tourists.’ It won’t matter much as there will no longer be enough money to pay for the most minor of public expenses. The major needs to ‘listen’ to all of the financial impact everyone else can see.
Apartment zoned should return to original purpose of long term residential as that was the original intention at why they were allowed to be constructed in the first place.
I think its all stupid, because vacationers bring money into Maui. So what’s the problem? How can people afford a home if you take their jobs away.
Do it.
We did Not feel welcome in Maui on our April 2024 vacation. We searched for locally owned restaurants and businesses and saw none! Only resorts. Locals hate visitors and look like they could become violent, especially on the road to Hana. And It’s obvious that the state is incapable of rebuilding Lahaina. I don’t think they want to rebuild. I don’t think they want visitors or tourists.
After visiting Maui in Jan of 2024, I have to say, I just don’t get the draw. Hawaii is beautiful and Maui had some great features, but it’s stupid-expensive, many locals are nasty to tourists, the ocean there can be brutal (and lethal), the snorkeling is hit or miss, the beaches aren’t better than in many places right here on the mainland, there are abandoned cars everywhere, many being burned out…. We really wanted to go gaga for it, and we did have some memorable moments, but we both agreed there was no reason to return. We can get to incredibly gorgeous Caribbean islands for a fraction of the time and cost, and save thousands of dollars on lodging & food.
Your take is ridiculous. Are prices high? Yes. Are some people total jerks? Yes. Can oceans be treacherous and lethal? Yes Are there abandoned cars? Yes. All these statements can be true just about everywhere.
But the Facts Are. We have some of the most beautiful beaches in the world. We live on an island with over 20 micro-climates with unbelievable natural beauty that is difficult to match.
When you visit somewhere this beautiful and highlight the negatives, it says more about you than it does the place you visit.
Please enjoy the Bahamas and other locations you decide to visit.
If you are looking for cheap the Caribbean with their safety issues might be a better fit or the mainland beach. I am originally from San Diego but won’t go in that water. I want to see whats moving around my legs. You can go to beautiful Tahiti but oh that is even more expensive. We did just suffer a major fire that destroyed most of Lahaina town. We apologize for the burnt cars. We would love for the rebuilding of our island to go a lot faster. However, there is no place like Hawaii especially our Maui. You will find rude unwelcoming people anywhere you go but for the most part we do welcome visitors and love sharing our aloha. I am sorry that you personally didn’t draw our aloha spirit to you. Hawaii either embraces you or spits you out.
I totally agree with you. I am on off-island owner who loves Maui and thinks it is the best of the islands.
We loved visiting and staying at Kaanapali Alii and visiting historic Lahaina. We’ve visited the Islands probably 10 times but Maui is our favorite, especially Kaanapali. What’s happened to Lahaina and now Kaanapali beach is truly tragic. Not sure we will ever visit again but we wish all the residents and businesses the best.
Mahalo, Steve and Joanne
I think you’ve fogotten about all the 7,000 complexes poised for a class action lawsuit of taking property rights away.. no one is closing anyone down here.. maybe Molokai will run people off.. but thats it
Has the mayor also factored in the multi billion dollars of lawsuits that will be filed (and have legal grounds) for all of those that own condos that are on the Minatoya list? He is going to bankrupt the county.
In the midst of the housing crisis, is it true that Mayor Bissen and the council members gave themselves Another pay increase?
Yes, Mayor Bissen is scheduled to have his salary raised 50% to $245,000. As many as 40 other workers are also set to receive pay increases.
I am no lawyer but is an STR ban constitutional? Even if this goes through, it will be tied up in courts for perhaps years. In other words, an STR ban is chaotic and will only hurt the people that the mayor naively thinks he is helping.
Exactly Phillip. We are prepared to fight this. Note I am a 33 year resident, homeowner and professional. Those content to accept welfare and other assistance who this is supposed to help will not be able to afford any of the housing on the ban list. The market will never decline enough for them. Nor would they qualify without jobs.
Re: “Maui welcomed 2.3 million visitors in 2024, fewer than in 2019 and 2023.” It’s not the rental ban that caused a tourism downturn in 2024, it was the aftermath of the Lahaina fires. Maui needs to take of it’s own first or there will be no middle class workers to support the tourist economy. With so many of our young people and families leaving the island as economic refugees, all that will be left is kapuna, millionaires, and tourists. Kapuna and millionaires won’t take tourism jobs. Bissen knows that the foundation of the economy is Maui’s hard-working people. If they can’t afford to live here, they leave. And tourism suffers in that scenario too. It’s not that Maui doesn’t want tourists, it’s that we are still recovering from a loss of homes from the fire and many people have no place to live. Please be more compassionate in your writing, the fires have had devastating consequences here on Maui.
I love maui, and I personally know many of the locals. But It definately changes my travel plans. When I go on vacation I only go to Maui. My most recent trip was just 2 weeks before the fire. Wish I would have known it was my last trip.
I think this rental ban is a huge mistake, investment companies will swoop in when the prices are low and steal Maui residents rentals, it isnt going to hurt investment companies its going to hurt your locals who also have rentals. When your natives and locals have to move off the island because there is no work, the investment sharks will roll in and buy up everything cheap. There is always a way around “red tape” for wealthy investors. They will buy the little houses demo and build condos and make a killing. Super sad. This might just be the real plan behind the ban. Super sad for Maui.
The latest check from the hotels must have cleared. The vast majority of the units in question are neither functional for full-time family use or even close to affordable, even after any theoretical 40% price reduction. If the ban goes through this will simply free up units for wealthy buyers and do nothing to help the housing shortage for locals, all while killing jobs.
Whatever it takes to keep people from talking about the mayor’s disastrous planning for emergencies and response to this one though I guess!
Exactly. If prices drop, it opens it just makes it that much more attractive to outside buyers as a beautiful vacation home.
Even if prices crash, condos with $1000 HOA fees on top of everything else leave them unaffordable and too small for families. It’s an Econ 101 fail across the board.
While appearing to help struggling locals, this really helps the hotels. Less competition means hotels get higher rates, higher occupancy.
I think it is doing exactly what they plan for it to do.
He’s on the right track.We need to provide affordable housing for residents not mainland owners for tourists. After Lahaina the need is even greater!! Mahalo Mayor for staying the course. We are with you!!!
This has definately impacted our decision to not visit Maui anymore! Been there 6 lovely vacations and I can say that it’s the most beautiful place on earth for me. We haven’t been back since 2019 and are pursuing other options currently.
This is absurdity. Sure local residents need housing but if the mayor completely decimates Maui’s only industry there won’t be any local residents left
Questions I always have during this discussion.
How many residents of Maui can actually qualify for a mortgage?
Is there any plan on replacing jobs lost due to taking so many STR’s off the market? If condos fall by 40 percent in value what will stop baby boomers or corporations from scooping them up turning them into long term rentals?
I think we all know the answers to these questions.
The more I read about theses changes, the more I am looking at different island to stay on. Businesses are leaving and restaurant workers are losing jobs. Tourists are the main income here. Tough situation but something has to be managed better.
Lookup blackrock and vanguard.
You will find your answers there.
The Mayor is doing the right thing in resolving time share it short term rentals. It is not about money these commerce kills and destroys life for the Hawaiian maoli. Greed is to allow profits and not save lives. He is a brave and caring Mayor and he is setting the foundation for the people to have a healthy life, sustainable and most of all Pono. We my Ohana supports his good works. Short term rentals for long term rentals is Pono.
People before profits! Where did he come from? It’s nice every once in awhile to see honor brought to an honorable job! 🫡