Hawaii’s vision has been to attract fewer visitors who spend more, with a long-term goal of achieving this. And that has been happening until we reached July’s tourism numbers. Not only did Hawaii experience a 4.4% decline in arrivals this July compared to the same period last year, but visitors also spent 4.3% less at 1.95 billion.
That is more money, however, than in 2019, despite the islands seeing far fewer people. Their average length of stay, however, increased slightly to 8.84 days, compared with 8.83 days the previous year.
Has Hawaii pushed prices too far?
July broke the recent pattern of fewer people but more dollars. Instead, both arrivals and total spending slipped almost equally, showing that higher costs alone can’t keep propping up the bottom line.
This isn’t about visitors spending less once they arrive. On a per-person basis, spending remains high. The problem is demand. Fewer flights, weak international markets, and Maui’s continued slump all contributed to the decline.
For Hawaii leaders, the goal has long been to attract fewer visitors who spend more. July shows the risk when that formula stalls. If satisfaction doesn’t keep pace with rising prices, Hawaii may be pushing too far.
The daily spending paradox.
While total spending dipped in July, the daily spending numbers tell a somewhat different story. Visitors are paying more than ever. From soaring airfare to skyrocketing resort fees, Hawaii’s costs have reached levels that leave many longtime visitors gasping about the value of their trip.
In June, visitors averaged $258 per day, up 6 percent from the same period a year earlier, a trend we previously covered when record spending occurred despite a decline in visitor counts. Daily costs for travelers continue climbing. East Coast visitors are now spending nearly $300 a day, while even West Coast visitors, who typically spend less, are paying significantly more than they did before the pandemic.
U.S. visitors keep Hawaii afloat.
Mainland visitors continue to prop up Hawaii’s economy the most. These came mainly from the West and East coasts, although both groups experienced a slight decline compared to last summer.
East Coast visitors are now the highest-spending group, with daily averages exceeding those of other markets. That has helped offset the decline in international demand.
Japan and Canada are still missing.
Japan and Canada, once reliable tourism markets, remain a shadow of what they were. Japan is sending less than half as many visitors as it did before the COVID pandemic.
Canada is still recovering in terms of traveler numbers, but the decline isn’t just an economic aftershock. There’s also a deliberate pullback and a voter backlash against U.S. policies and rhetoric. That makes their absence this summer more than just about airfare; it’s about identity and values.
Other international markets, including Australia and New Zealand, declined by three percent year over year and remain more than 24 percent below their 2019 levels.
Maui’s slow recovery.
Maui continues to lag. The island is still drawing far fewer visitors than before the 2023 wildfires, even though those who do come are spending a little more. Businesses in West Maui remain caught between the need for visitors for their success and community calls to keep tourism in check.
Maui’s struggle is palpable. In West Maui, businesses are caught in a painful balancing act between community concerns and the need for visitors to survive. Two years after the wildfires, the scars remain, including physical, psychological, and economic.
Air seats and flight schedules.
Air service is still holding Hawaii back. Flights and seats to the islands remain below both last year’s and 2019’s levels, with the most significant shortfall in international routes from countries such as Japan and Canada.
The lack of air lift from Japan, Canada, and other key markets continues to weigh down overall arrival numbers. Airlines, including Hawaiian, Alaska, Southwest, United, American, and Delta, are maintaining their focus on Hawaii but not increasing it.
Is Hawaii’s tourism model sustainable?
Officials point to fewer visitors spending more as the ideal balance. But cracks are apparent. Readers continue to report again and again they are rethinking Hawaii trips. Some are sitting this year out for the first time in decades. Others are choosing destinations like Mexico, Tahiti, Fiji, and the Cook Islands, where they report finding lower prices and more perceived value.
Ken from California said his family decided to wait until 2026, saying the cost of Hawaii vacations has become too high. Dave from Canada canceled outright, citing poor value. Readers from Australia noted that they are booking easy destinations such as The Cook Islands, Fiji, or Southeast Asia instead.
What does this mean going forward?
Through the first seven months of 2025, Hawaii hosted 5.8 million visitors, a 1.2 percent increase compared to the same period last year, but a 6.1 percent decrease compared to 2019. Visitor spending for the same period was $12.9B, up 4.7 percent year over year and 22.3 percent higher than in 2019.
The revenue picture looks strong, but fewer people are visiting, and the perception of value is eroding. If Hawaii alienates too many longtime visitors, it risks trading loyalty for short-term dollars. That may not end well if international markets continue to underperform and U.S. demand softens.
The bottom line.
Compared with last July, both visitor numbers and spending were down. But when you look back to 2019, Hawaii is still earning more from fewer visitors, a paradox that shows how much costs have risen.
If the state prices out its most loyal travelers, it could even lose those for good. That is the gamble Hawaii is making, and the outcome is far from certain.
Are these rising costs making you reconsider your Hawaii travel plans, or are you still planning to come back?
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there are some global trends at play here affecting many tourist markets
but two factors very unique to hawaii.
The first was discussed in the article, that is, the high prices. It’s real and it’s impacting decision making. Hawai competes with Mexico and Florida and the Caribbean as well as Central america etc for tourist dollars. We are fortunate to be able to pay high prices but the taxes, resort fees, and especially restaurant prices are mind blowing.
The second issue is just as important, and that is the clear message coming out of the islands that tourists are not welcome. The message has been amplified after the Maui fires two years ago, and continued support for tourist-targeted fees and taxes – differential parking rates, $100/pp arrival taxes, steep fees to enter state parks – they get disproportionate publicity on the mainland and it is very impactful. Tourists want to go where they’re welcome. The Hawaii of my childhood welcomed visitors to the land.
Vacation home owners can run their business as they choose. They simply said no thanks. Did you contact the previous places you stayed that gave you 50% off in the past? Did the airlines, car rentals, local restaurants all offer you 50% off too? Did the state of Hawaii offer you 50% off the lodging taxes?
They get a booking. We stay within budget. I found airline tickets, a car rental and we’re ready to book our trip that would also support the local economy.
We offered her $8,000 for a 20-day stay ($400 per night) that would net her $6,800 profit after she paid $1,200 in taxes. $6,800 profit is better than zero income.
Keep in mind, she had had no bookings June- December 15, 2024. None. No income. In fact, to make some money she and her husband were collecting fruit from a few trees they had to sell.
We’d also be paying $250 per week for a weekly housekeeper. We are very quiet, clean people. A low impact stay.
Vacation renters can run their businesses. Just don’t complain when their greed and lack of adapting to a market costs them. Yes, the airlines and car rentals to Maui were deeply discounted. We were watching fares. We had been to Kauai and worked with a really lovely owner who gave the 50% discount on two different properties. When a vacation rental owner takes in less money the tax he pays is less because it’s based on a %. That was his standard policy. He’d rather make money than sit empty. Wise business sense. Having been to Kauai twice, we wanted to go to Maui and support the island. But the vacation rental owners have a pride issue with their rate.
Many Maui short-term rental owner are greedy, selfish and short sighted. In September 2024, we noticed a home we’ve wanted to rent had had virtually no bookings all of 2024. A place that used to be booked solid had 2-3 weeks total booked for all of 2024. When we first saw this place years ago it was about $400 per night. It was three bedrooms. It’s just me and my husband. We spoke with the owner. She said business was really bad. She was asking $700 per night now with taxes was now close to $900 per might. She had refused to lower her price even though that would have brought tourists who rented cars, are at local restaurants, shipped at grocery stores, etc. We had always thought this place would be nice for a quiet belated honeymoon for us.
It was a last minute rental. It was mid-August 2024 and we were looking to book the first three weeks of September. We had booked on Maui last minute and gotten 50% discount because it’s a win win. (Part 1 of 2)
Why not just try literally of other properties then, instead of singling out this one person that didn’t want to discount? Im sure if you really wanted to travel to Maui you could have found a nice place in your budget.
For decades, Maui has been artificially spoiled with a steady stream of visitors being the hip Hawaiian island where the rich and famous go. Of the Hawaiian Islands, Kauai and Maui are the only ones that interested us. We’d been to Kauai twice and found the owners of beautiful homes easy to work with. We are a professional couple traveling, no smoking, no pets. Both rentals were within 30-45 days. They wanted income and they knew we’d be great renters. We need quiet homes with certain details as we work when away. Just like the USA housing market got very inflated over the past 5-6 years. Now houses are sitting on the market not selling. Their price is too high. If your place is empty, your price is too high. When we travel, we are paying for lodging in addition to our home. We are only paying for food and fuel at the vacation spot. These owners could have brought in probably over $200 to $300k additional income by being humble, running a business versus price fixing.
Hawaii has broken the golden egg and it can’t put it back together!!!
People can smell greed just as easily as they can feel Aloha. When the former outpaces the latter………… Newton said it best, “For every action, there is an equal and opposite reaction.”
I truly do not blame HI from wanting fewer tourists…I live in FL and it can be a source of frustration, but tourism including mom n pop shops and restaurants etc. largely depend on tourism. I want to come back to HI… but wonder how we will be treated by locals… while dropping alot more $ than it would cost for other beautiful islands and cultures to visit. Mixed feelings. I remember “Old HI”.. and we are loosing more and more of “Old FL” with more commercialization for tourists and more destruction of beautiful nature and resources.
We were planning on going to Maui in 2026 but hotel and flight pricing are too high. We loved Lahaina, but it’s not back yet
Prices have risen enough to discourage our visit to Maui
We love Maui but only continue to visit there because we have family living there. There are other beautiful places in the world that aren’t nearly as expensive. I hope the people of Maui do not lose their Aloha spirit in pursuit of fewer visitors spending more money.