Return Visitors Won’t Pay? Hawaii Knows Who Else Will

A single sentence helps explain a broader, more subtle shift across the islands: “Someone will still pay the price we won’t or can’t.” Hawaii is no longer trying to bring everyone back as it once did. It’s focused instead on who else will pay more.

In other words, if you’re priced out, the system doesn’t break—it keeps going, perhaps even better.

A deliberate squeeze on access and volume.

Over the past few years, visitor caps, vacation rental crackdowns, and new green fees have started reducing access to Hawaii’s most visited places. While these changes are often framed as sustainability efforts—and in part, they are—they also reshape the supply side of the tourism equation.

With fewer accommodations and higher travel costs, the price of a Hawaii vacation keeps rising. And yet, demand holds. That’s by design. As some travelers opt out, officials and the tourism industry seem increasingly content with fewer but higher-spending visitors.

Why Hawaii travel costs are rising fast.

The signs are everywhere. Flights to Hawaii are harder to find on sale. You find that flying to Hawaii, and we encounter it just as much when traveling outside the state. Rental car prices remain high. And a sunset dinner that used to feel like a splurge now feels like another expected expense.

These rising costs have become a defining feature of the new Hawaii travel reality. And as travelers share their experiences, they’re drawing a common conclusion: they’re being priced out, which doesn’t seem accidental. And there are no apologies.

As commenter Linda wrote, “I used to come every year. Now it’s once every five, if that. It’s not just the airfare—it’s the feeling that I’m not wanted.”

The new strategy: fewer visitors, same revenue.

Recent state data confirms what many travelers have already sensed. Hawaii may not have returned to its 2019 peak in visitor numbers, but spending keeps climbing. The average trip now brings in more revenue per visitor.

This isn’t failure. It’s a functioning new model. Hawaii’s latest tourism approach favors high-yield visitors over volume. The policy tools—Hawaii’s new green fees policy, restricted vacation rentals, new limits on beach and park access—send a clear signal: come if you can, stay if you’ll pay.

A different kind of fallout.

This transition may not feel dramatic at first glance. Flights will still be full—airlines demand that. Waikiki will still be busy. But behind those numbers is a slow erosion of the kind of travelers who once gave Hawaii depth—long-time repeat visitors, families with history here, travelers who spent modestly but consistently, and above all, who loved Hawaii.

In their place? A different crowd: high rollers who treat Hawaii like a luxury showroom, and one-time Instagrammers chasing their moment of paradise before moving on. It’s not wrong—it’s just different. And it leaves something behind.

Over time, this shift is being felt—not necessarily in tax revenue, but in the conversations on the lanai, the familiar faces at the poke counter, and the multi-generational ties that created a long-term connection between visitor and place.

Who will still afford Hawaii?

This is the core question readers keep asking. Is Hawaii still for return visitors? Is it for average American families? Or is it becoming more like Bora Bora—a dream for some, a reality for only the few? Clearly, it’s moving from the former to the latter.

At the moment, the messaging about the changes is mixed. On the one hand, new rules promise more thoughtful tourism. On the other hand, there’s virtual silence around the very people Hawaii once welcomed most.

One reader, Gabriel, put it plainly: “From the outside looking in, it appears Hawaii is trying to reduce visitor numbers while maintaining or increasing revenue. I believe the state will succeed. It probably doesn’t matter what millions of Americans think who can’t afford the increases—someone else will still pay.”

We’re Not Just Watching—We’re Testing It Ourselves.

This month, we’ll be in Honolulu, testing these questions. We’re staying at a well-located hotel for about $200 a night total—yes, total—and eating at low-brow, budget-friendly places that any visitor could afford. We’re not cutting corners. We’re just making choices different from the high-end crowd.

We’ll report back with a full trip breakdown, including where we stayed, what we spent, and how doable it is to visit Hawaii on a reasonable budget in 2025. The idea isn’t to prove anything wrong. It’s to show that another version of Hawaii is still possible.

Hawaii isn’t chasing everyone anymore.

That may be the most honest way to describe what’s happening. Hawaii isn’t actively excluding any visitors, but it’s no longer trying to keep everyone in. It no longer values the returning visitors that once regularly exceeded 60% of all tourists. The barriers are quieter: cost, access, and ambiguity. The result is the same.

Hawaii knows someone will pay. It no longer needs to ask everyone else to come.

What do you think about this new direction in Hawaii tourism? Share your thoughts and experiences in the comments below.

We want to hear from you. For more on how Hawaii is reshaping its approach to travel, see our recent article: Hawaii Is Tearing Up Its Travel Playbook.