Could the Hawaii deals of yesteryear be poised to return? We’ve wondered that ourselves recently, as there comes a point in time when the reduction in tourism due to exorbitantly increased rates becomes unsustainable. Also, according to one recent report, the cost of some Hawaii vacations as well as other tropical destinations might be heading down. Where does Hawaii actually stand?
After two years of relatively stellar performance in Hawaii travel in spite of soaring costs, the state overall, led by Maui, is falling below prior years’ visitor counts. This comes after the post-pandemic surge when everyone took to the sky, and seemingly all arrived here in Hawaii.
Factors suppressing Hawaii travel costs in 2024.
A variety of issues are having the effect of suppressing Hawaii travel. Demand and cost will ultimately come into better alignment to the benefit of visitors. Some of the factors are high-interest rates, job layoffs, and challenging economic and global conditions. Both we and this study feel that is likely to mean “there are some deals to be had for those planning to travel next year.” And this includes Hawaii.
GoBankingRates interviewed luxury travel agents and other experts in the field to “get the scoop on some high-end vacation destinations that might be cheaper next year.” They found a range of destinations, including Hawaii, where travel professionals believe prices will drop.
First, a long list of exotic destinations other than Hawaii made these experts list where they expect prices to drop and where visitors can expect to find significant discounts in 2024.
That list includes the US Virgin Islands, Costa Rica, Phuket, Bali, Santorini, and the Maldives. These familiar, idyllic, and exotic destinations will pressure Hawaii to be more price-competitive. Other places projected to have lower-cost travel in 2024 are London, Paris, and Cape Town.
Here’s a familiar place on the list that Hawaii aficionados adore.
The experts believe that French Polynesia, and specifically the island of Bora Bora (above), is poised to become more affordable in 2024. They said, “It is expected that next year, there will be more competitive rates and promotions.” Flights to Papeete Tahiti have increased and now include nonstop from Los Angeles, San Francisco, and Seattle, in addition to weekly flights from Honolulu.
The cost of flights to Tahiti has already plummeted.
As a sign of what could be ahead, while the cost of flying from Honolulu to Papeete is lower than it was, it is still high. and mostly north of $750 round trip. But if you fly from more distant Los Angeles (an extra two hours of travel time), the price starts at $467, even in Tahiti’s prime season. Airfare cost from San Francisco and Seattle is higher.
The cost of a Tahiti vacation dropping will put pressure on Hawaii prices, too, and help bring costs down.
Hawaii joins the list of places predicted to see cost reduction.
Understandably, they point to Maui as a particular island that is very costly, as we all know, and that has suffered a tremendous loss of tourism following the tragic Lahaina fire, among other issues. To this day, Maui is unable to get beyond about 50% of its normal visitor arrivals despite the impacted West Maui area representing only 15% of the island.
The experts said, “Reduced tourism at least through the first half of 2024 should keep prices lower than usual as the island fights to get back to normal.”
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Hawaii needs to make up their mind what they want-
Sitting here at the end of December after the Hawaiian/Alaska merger and waiting for prices to drop. It’s really high right now for our travel dates, higher than we usually see. Hopefully we will see it drop in the new year. I just don’t see how higher pricing is sustainable.
The Airbnb short-term vacation rental industry in Oahu was destroyed by the government and hotel lobbyists. After the law was enacted, hotel prices increased threefold, while the remaining short-term vacation rentals increased their prices fourfold.
A healthy short-term vacation rental industry kept prices down and competitive, making it easier for tourists to afford and visit year after year. However, due to the hotel industry’s greed and the cronyism of our elected officials, tourists are no longer willing to pay the high price of paradise. Can you blame them?
We are planning a trip to Hawaii July 2024. It sounds like prices on the airlines may drop. When would be a good time to buy tickets?
Hi Linda.
July would be the least likely month to find deals. By early June and mid-August and after would be far better.
Aloha.
Just returned from a lovely vacation in Tahiti. Hawaii’s costs have gotten ridiculous so if you want a tropical paradise, give Tahiti and Moorea a try- and the people were very welcoming! 🌴
Hi DJ.
Always good to hear from you. And thanks for letting us know how your trip to French Polynesia went.
Aloha.
🥰🥰
Hi Jeff and Rob! My family loves and appreciates your newsletters. We have an inherited time share on the gorgeous island of Kauai and we are looking forward to an April 2024 trip. We will be flying from LAX. Do you have any suggestions on when we should pull the trigger for flights? Right now for Main cabin (not basic) non-stop to LIH it’s about $328-358 or so. I’m thinking that’s great but one in the group wants to wait. Any suggestions/predictions for Spring 2024 flight sales?
Hi Emily.
Thank you! If your travels are the first week of April, it is the peak of spring break and price fluctuations aren’t at all likely. The second week is shoulder and it is hard to predict. But the third and fourth week are low season and those could potentially drop somewhat. How much and if that will happen becomes more clear usually at about 90 days out. A couple of other thoughts: There are considerations to be aware of at Hawaiian’s terminal at LAX. You can pick between American, Delta, Hawaiian, Southwest (they restart that route in April), and United. Good luck!
Aloha.
Unless prices come down by half, or more, I doubt my husband and I will be returning to Hawaii. Why?
– We’re tired of being nickel-and-dimed.
– We’re tired of paying premium prices for sub-par accommodations, food, and experiences.
– We’re tired of the hostile attitude of the locals toward tourists.
For almost a decade, we looked forward to our annual “spring break” trip to Hawaii. However, after a particularly terrible experience on the Big Island in the fall of 2021, we changed plans for spring 2022 and went to Mexico instead. Thanks to outrageous prices for hotels, airfare, and rental cars, we went to Mexico again this past spring. And now, we’re making plans for our third trip to Mexico in spring 2024. Sorry, Hawaii.
There is another factor. On Maui, there is active discrimination against tourists – locals do not need a reservation to enter a park, visitors do. Locals do not need to pay an entrance fee, visitors do. Locals do not need to pay for parking, visitors do. At some point it gets annoying. The attitude of some locals – Maui needs tourism, but tourism needs Maui much more is offputting.
I will not be going there again.
I used to go to Hawaii every year until they introduced resort fees that had to be paid at the end of my stay.
This worked out at $42.00 a night for 10 nights just unfordable.
Everything has just gone up most Australian now go to Bali or Fiji.
LOL, most Australians have always gone to Bali or Fiji. Except for the years right after the Bali bombing. Hawaii has never been to prime destinstion for Australians. Please check your facts.
We have travelled to Hawaii for 34 years but won’t be coming back anytime soon. Locals make it clear that we are not welcome and we are sick of it! We are going to go to Portugal instead for literally 1/2 the price! Aloha
I’ll always have love for Maui and the people and I’ve always been treated well as a “tourist”. That being said, it’s become a rapidly decreasing value preposition and better tropical vacation options are out there and I plan to explore those places…and then come back to Maui 😉
They stays have gotten too expensive. AirBnbs want to eye gouge now. I love Hawaii, but there is nicer beaches out there that are way more affordable.
My wife and I will be celebrating our 40th Anniversary in early March 2024. We’ve been to Maui three times during our marriage. We’ve already booked a flight from LAX and a 5 night stay at the Sheraton Resort & Spa in Maui. We’re both retired and we’re hoping the things on the Island will return, somewhat, to normal and prices will and could be lowered by March of 2024😊
2 days of travelling (5 1/2-6)hour flights for a 5 night stay doesn’t sound like much of a vacation to me LOL.
Most tourist want a vacation to get away from the public and relax. It seems like the thoughts are passed to the HTA so they can solve the what’s on the tourists mind now. Not my problem and tired of practice what you preach. I also understand you don’t want to get caught between a rock and a hard spot in your topics. Sorry insulting to be a statistic.
Maui is one of my favorite vacation spots but I’m tired of being ripped off with user fees, high parking rates, “resort” fees, rookie state government putting out inaccurate information, etc. Time to explore other destinations. The minority view of some locals wishing tourists would stay away will be satisfied soon. Let me know how that works out for you.
I agree
We usually spent a week at the Whaler or Kapaula Bay Villas each year and with the rise in daily rental what was $ 650.00 out the door is now $1000.00 a night. I got a 10 day cruise the other day to Greece and Italy for $7500 out the door with air from SFO on Princess. Maui was a good run but I don’t see us going back.
$10,000.00 2 week 1 bedroom Holiday. No thankyou. Mahalo!!
My family is planning a trip for March 2024. Will the airfare be lower by then? I have been watching prices and it is still super expensive. In your opinion when is a good time frame to purchase tickets?
Idk I don’t think going to Hawaii was that expensive. Me and my husband went back in March for my birthday and in total with food amd everything we spent around 3k maybe 3500 for 3 nights and 4 days. We arrived Thursday afternoon and left Sunday afternoon. We stayed away from high profile expensive tourist attractions and went on hikes amd explored the island instead! We also walked to Waikiki every night from our hotel so we didn’t have to worry about parking the rental stayed at the hotel (we paid for parking there for 3 days). Going out to eat wasn’t terribly expensive either not much different than mainland USA. And going to Hawaii was only a few hundred more than going to the grand canyon.
Aloha. So if the prices go down, will it affect the number of high end tourists coming? Or will they then be considered budget tourists? Thanks and Aloha.
Hi Randy.
We’ll be watching for this to unfold with you. Our take is that there’s should be room for all budgets here. It’s been like that as long as we can recall.
Aloha.
Its the exploitation of the tourists by the Government that has dramatically reduced tourism to the Hawaiian Islands. Tourists accept the airline costs and the high consumer staple prices. But they do not appreciate being gouged at the resorts, restaurants, beaches, parks for roadside parking fees, reservation and entrance fees, internet and activity fees and 3 different levels of government, resort and city tax fees added arbitrarily to $700-$4,000 daily room rates. I am an annual visitor to Maui who has decided Maui is not worth the value. The Caribbean, Central America and the U S coastal states all are shorter distances and have great weather, beaches, activities for a better value. The Lahaina fire makes this a sad time exiting Maui
We are here in Hawaii. Price of food in restaurants and grocery stores is extremely high in Kauai. We wonder if there are any culinary schools here . We have not had a good meal yet. Even the Beach House food was mediocre. Accomodations excellent , majority of people friendly but tired , holding two three jobs to make ends meet.
Many blessings to these hard working people . Aloha
Hi Mario.
While some will argue, we concur about restaurants. There’s so much great food product to be had here however, like at farmers markets, and fresh fish. Editor Jeff has been quoted as saying when he wants a great restaurant meal on Kauai, he heads to the airport. As in flying to Honolulu. Lol.
Aloha
I am in total agreement about your article of yester-years of high rental rates. Our decline started when covid restrictions were lifted abroad. Speaking with my repeat renters their feed back was in multiple reply:
* Can now travel internationally without covid restrictions
* Hawaii became hostile with so many visitors treating them like second hand citizens
* Hawaii out priced themselves knowing during covid, they were the only place to vacation.
Now we have interest rates, a possible war, and the cost of living up. According to banks, savings accounts are depleting.
So, be careful Hawaii for what you complained about and what you wished for!
Mahalo!
The statement “Hawaii became hostile with so many visitors treating them like second hand citizens: is so true. Hawaii was the last state in the nation with an indoor mask mandate in place. The only reason the State ended the Covid Mandate is they ran out of Federal Money and no new Money was due in. The State will do anything to get Federal Money and play any game to get it. It is time for the US Military to leave Hawaii.
Careful what you wish for Warren. The military has over 36,000 people stationed there. To support their mission, there are over 100,000 civilian jobs. Most with good pay and benefits. Take that all away and over $14 billion to the local economy every year goes with the military leaving Hawaii. Think you have high taxes now?
I think that was his point.