There are huge wrinkles beginning to raise their ugly heads for Hawaii-bound summer travelers. We’re sorry to be the first bearers of bad news, but there you have it. We’ll look at these today and give you suggestions on how to plan your Hawaii vacation going forward.
First. What’s happened that’s heading directly for Hawaii flights.
Let’s face it, The issues include a serious shortage of staff across the board, starting with pilots. Add to that an unprecedented travel demand, significant labor union negotiations, the airlines’ desire to fly more flights to Hawaii than ever, increased costs across the board, and the possibility of covid reappearing on flights and impacting staffing. In other words, this isn’t going to be pretty and you’d better get ready.
Airline staffing was already a huge mess.
The airlines that fly to Hawaii are looking for new staff to help them manage capacity and staff shortages. How successful they are at filling positions, however, isn’t clear, as they simultaneously prepare plans for this busiest of summers here in Hawaii.
On the one hand, carriers are excited to finally take advantage of unprecedented post-Covid travel demand. Tempering that excitement is the fear that there are inadequate pilots, in particular, to meet the demand associated with increased schedules. The Great Resignation exacerbates concerns, with airline workers leaving and not returning to pressure-laden positions.
While airlines struggle to keep Hawaii flights reliable, American Airlines’ pilots are now suing the company about training procedures related to a lack of instructors, and Southwest pilots have warned of dangerous pilot fatigue.
SW said that they are making “progress toward returning our operation back to pre-pandemic service and staffing levels, which will foster improvements in our ability to handle unexpected operational disruptions, minimizing the impact on employees and customers.”
Both SW and AA are also in strained labor negotiations. While strikes aren’t possible, these have the unquestionable potential to exacerbate delays and cancelations.
Will Hawaii summer flights get cut?
That definitely isn’t out of the question. This week alone, we saw Delta cut its summer schedule, including Hawaii, by more than 15% preemptively. That airline said it has nearly 10,000 fewer employees now than just before Covid.
Flights to Hawaii from the U.S. mainland will reach volumes not seen in years, if ever.
In that regard, American’s CEO said, “If nothing else, demand for travel is really strong.” That’s as they try to hire 600 new pilots by the summer. The American Air pilots’ union said ominously, that the company is “clearly ill-prepared for the rebound in airline traffic and has been selling tickets for flights the airline may be unable to operate due to a shortage of properly qualified pilots.”
Airlines are planning for the biggest ramp-up in travel we’ve ever seen, and Hawaii is at the front of that thinking for Alaska, American, Delta, Hawaiian, and Southwest Airlines.
Are the airlines getting ahead of themselves?
Thus far, only Delta seems to be taking the approach their president stated, which is that their “priority is to operate reliably and the other priority is do not get ahead of demand.” But, having said that, Delta pilots too, are also complaining about schedules and fatigue, with their union warning that Delta must “make substantive changes to improve our schedules.”
Elimination of airline mask mandates could lead to something totally unintended.
The possibility exists of a significant increase in airline crew Covid cases impacting Hawaii flights. Already, these have resulted in staff shortages, forcing hundreds of flight cancelations elsewhere, in an ominous prediction of what may be about to arrive here in Hawaii.
Three weeks ago, the U.K. eliminated masks mandates on all forms of travel. Airlines and passengers alike welcomed it. U.K. behemoth airline EasyJet said then, “We are looking ahead to what we expect to be a strong summer… We can’t wait to welcome more customers back on board.”
But not so fast. Now, EasyJet says they are canceling more than 100 flights a day due to “crew absence levels, driven by Covid… As a result, we have made pre-emptive cancellations.”
Eric Feigl-Ding, a well-known epidemiologist, said he wasn’t at all surprised. “So damn predictable… huge spike in pilots and flight attendants out sick with #COVID19 unable to work.” More ominous is his prediction this week about what is about to happen here, which we relate directly to flights to Hawaii:
He called the UK situation a “preview of next month at US airports,” as hundreds of flights “got cancelled or delayed as airlines were hit by (Covid) staff shortages. 3 hour waits—some flights delayed 24 hours.”
How will this play out on Hawaii flights?
So far, at least, U.S. airlines aren’t experiencing any similar disruptions. But whatever impact there may be isn’t yet apparent, with the just-removed masking requirement. We last recall that here in the U.S., airlines ditched countless flights including to Hawaii, just a few months ago, when the Omicron variant hit the U.S.
What you can do next.
Avoid peak summer months from mid-June to early August. Plan a late spring or fall getaway, which is always a better time to visit Hawaii anyway.
Please let us know your travel planning thoughts in the comments below.
Rebooked three times starting back on March 2020. Watching the news and getting information on several websites we finally made, we hope, our vacation plans for December. This is supposed to be our first retirement vacation but want a full experience and not one with restrictions. My company would send me to the four main islands every three months for the last 10 years so I have lots of hotel and airline reward points. Can’t wait to use them.
We are on Kauai. We played a round of golf today. That pandemic thing surely did hurt the golf courses and many of the other businesses and restaurants on Kauai, more so on Kauai than the other island. Hopefully we will see you later.
Wrong. It is our problem. Especially if your flight is cancelled, you’re paying for a hotel room, car rental and lost vacation days. That’s a problem. There is no way they can have enough staff to cover all the scenarios. And if you happen to die from COVID that could also be a problem, while only a slight chance it’s still happening, you don’t get to choose which version of COVID you get.
It would be nice if you would call a spade a spade here. Airlines took the U.S. taxpayer for truckloads of money during the pandemic under the guise of maintaining their staffing levels (after all, they do enjoy a national security provision in their operations).
And what have we learned? As usual, the airlines duped us. Aircraft cabins have some of the cleanest air passengers will breathe, and if they aren’t requiring well-fitting N95 masks, then masks on planes are theater. Omicron is milder than the common cold, and yet we keep listening to clowns even though hospitalizations and acute illness are not spiking along with + tests. The airlines misused their money and screwed up staffing. Nothing to do with masks or infections.
Please stop the fearmongering of “increase of Covid cases because the useless mask mandate has been eliminated”. The Omicron variant has the same symptoms as the common cold. Whether it’s #Covid, or the common cold, people who are sick should stay home. The American people have put up with the fearmongering and control for over two years. We are over it!!!! If people still want to wear a mask, that’s their right. If people choose not to wear a mask, that too, is their right. If airlines can’t staff appropriately because of #Covid, or the common cold, that’s their problem, not the public’s!
Covid is done. Give it up.All these crews are maskless outside of work.
The only staffing issues are the ones brought on by the CEO’s poor decision making. See Hawaiian Airlines.
Too much CNN I guess? Remember when travel wouldn’t return until 2025?
Jeff, Goldie and edd. Sardine canned airports around people from everywhere. Waiting thirty minutes on the tarmac in an unventilated flying sardine can. A few thousand folks like yourselves who have no regard for immuno compromised and children to young to get vaccine. Yeah. Your words that CV19 is done. Must be listening to a bit too much Fox, no?
Flying SWA SAN to HNL in early May. Because of all I’ve read regarding crowded conditions I looked at our flights. To my surprise, Gotta Get Away fares are still available both coming and going. I know our dates are typically not too busy but fares are incredibly easy to get and inexpensive for only two weeks ahead.
Our hotel was also reasonably priced, and still has rooms, though not the higher tier that we have booked.
Also booked restaurants a couple of months ago and everything we have booked is still available. I guess we’ll see.
Had a Oahu trip planned for the last week in May through first week of June.
Postponed due to price increase for flights.
Hoping for Sept-October trip.
I think that it borders on fraud that the airlines sold so many tickets at “on sale” prices and are unable to provide the service when promised. These “unexpected” difficulties have been predicted for many months.
Our trip is in mid-September. We are traveling for our 30th wedding anniversary. I’m very worried about Covid disruptions. I wish they still required masks so that they would not put staff at risk. I feel bad for airline employees that will be exposed to hundreds of maskless people on a small plane every single day.