For years, Hawaii travelers knew the drill. If your schedule was flexible, you waited until you knew summer would be ending soon. Starting mid August through mid-November was shoulder season, and shoulder season meant Hawaii airfares finally came back down to earth.
We started looking at October flights this weekend, expecting to find those familiar bargains. Instead, the numbers kept landing much higher than expected across multiple western gateways. In fact, it was rather eye-popping having followed these dates on Beat of Hawaii for the past two decades.
We started with six west coast gateways.
To keep the comparison simple, we checked the same October dates using nonstop flights from six major western gateways to Honolulu on all airlines. Los Angeles came in at $431 round trip. San Francisco was $472. Las Vegas was $516. Phoenix reached $537. San Diego climbed to $552. Seattle topped the group at $587.
Those are all regular economy fares, round-trip, excluding Basic Economy. The pattern is not that every Hawaii flight now costs $500, but that four of the six gateways we checked were already at or above that level in one of Hawaii’s traditional bargain periods.
The fares were cheap. They just didn’t feel cheap.
One of the most interesting parts of the search wasn’t the prices themselves. It was Google Flights’ description of some of them where searches showed a low price label. Others simply showed that the pricing was now normal for those travel dates.
That may be perfectly accurate compared with today’s market. It simply isn’t what many longtime Hawaii travelers who’ve been with us on the journey picture when they think about October Hawaii flight deals.
For decades, October wasn’t just Hawaii’s least expensive season to visit. It was when many travelers, including those of us based here in the islands, expected airfare to become a bargain. Today, the bargain often started with a five.
The floor on Hawaii routes has moved.
We’re not suggesting every Hawaii flight now costs $500. Our own searches showed Los Angeles at $431 and San Francisco at $472. Flash sales still happen, and Basic Economy can sometimes shave another $75 to $100 off the price.
Then there are branded credit card offers, and you know the rest of the drill. But what appears to have changed is where standard economy pricing begins when looking both at the traditional and largest California Hawaii markets and beyond.
Instead of seeing October fares routinely beginning with a three, or occasionally even a two, we repeatedly found fares beginning with a four or a five. Has Hawaii’s bargain season changed, or have travelers simply not noticed that the definition of a bargain has been shredded with it?
October isn’t disappearing as a bargain season everywhere.
Airlines no longer have to fill October airplanes the way they once did. Over the years, the industry has gotten far better at matching capacity with demand, and increasingly sophisticated revenue management systems have reduced any desire to sell large numbers of deeply discounted seats.
October may still end up being Hawaii’s least expensive season. It’s just that it doesn’t necessarily mean it produces the range of fares longtime visitors remember fondly.
For travelers flying from Los Angeles or San Francisco, competition still appears to keep prices a bit lower than elsewhere. Move beyond those markets, and the old expectation that fall automatically delivers any bargain airfares becomes much harder to prove.
October may still be the smartest time to book Hawaii when considered overall. It just may no longer deliver the kind of bargains many travelers remember.
What prices are you finding for Hawaii fall vacations?
By Rob and Jeff, Beat of Hawaii.
Some of the most meaningful parts of Hawaii are the ones visitors walk right past without knowing they are there. We’ve spent nearly 20 years finding them firsthand for BOH as full-time Hawaii residents reporting on travel, culture, and island life, and telling you what they mean for your trip. Join us →
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