If you thought the cost of visiting Hawaii was the biggest thing keeping you away, there’s something else quietly creeping in—faster than many even expected. A new University of Hawaii study revealed that parts of the islands, especially urban areas on Oahu’s south shore, are sinking far more rapidly than previously known.
The revelation? In some spots, the ground is subsiding up to 40 times faster than the island average. That means areas you might drive through or stay in may face chronic flooding much sooner than anticipated—potentially within the next two decades, not five.
While this might sound far off, signs of the problem are already emerging. Some areas are seeing more frequent flooding during high tides and storms, with water inching closer to roads and facilities travelers rely on today—not decades from now.
New findings zero in near Honolulu Airport.
Other low-lying areas previously developed on artificial fill are also included. For many visitors, these aren’t obscure places—they’re near popular hotels, rental car facilities, and throughways between airport and resort zones.
Travelers have been warned about long-term sea level rise in Hawaii for years. But this new layer—land sinking faster than the ocean rises—dramatically accelerates timelines. Areas predicted to flood by the end of the century could now see regular flooding as soon as 2050.
Some projections show flood exposure in the worst-hit zones increasing by more than 50 percent—and in certain areas, occasional flooding is already becoming more common during high tides and storms.
That means more than soggy ground and a myriad of community and infrastructure problems that could create ripple effects across the Hawaii tourism industry. And yes, that includes the roads to and from the airport, especially during high tides or storm surges.
It’s not just a resident issue anymore.
While much of Hawaii’s focus on sea level rise has been on how it affects residents, property owners, and businesses, Hawaii travelers will not be immune. Many hotel zones and transportation corridors are built on the same vulnerable terrain.
There’s also the broader cost question. Hawaii travel prices have soared post-pandemic, driven by inflation, reduced airline capacity, and constrained hotel availability. Now, you can add what will be coming regarding upgrades and insurance hikes to the growing list of hidden costs that will likely be passed on to Hawaii visitors over time.
If hotels and tourism businesses in flood-prone areas are forced to relocate, retrofit, or elevate, those costs will not quietly disappear. They’ll probably show up in your nightly room rate, resort fee or airfare.
UH researchers confirmed that these areas have been consistently sinking for two decades. The cause isn’t dramatic tectonic activity—it’s the quiet compression of loose, filled-in land under the weight of urban development. In other words, it won’t stop anytime soon.
Understanding which neighborhoods are most affected—particularly on Oahu—can inform more future-proof travel decisions. Areas built on natural coastal rock fare better than those on artificial fill or former wetlands.
Honolulu’s billion-dollar conundrum.
All of this comes as Hawaii continues pouring massive funding into airport and tourism infrastructure upgrades. As we recently reported, the state just issued $849 million in airport bonds—ostensibly to improve traveler experience. But a question looms: Are those improvements taking into account the rapidly accelerating nearby flood exposure?
Honolulu, sitting squarely in a subsiding zone, has its own vulnerabilities. While current UH data has focused on the south shore, researchers note that other parts of the island system may follow similar trends next.
It raises tough questions about whether enough planning has gone into long-term infrastructure siting and whether travelers should consider backup options or avoid certain areas during specific seasons. This all remains to be revealed.
Planning around uncertain times in Hawaii travel.
None of this means Hawaii is suddenly off-limits. But it does underline how fast the playing field is shifting, especially for a destination that relies so heavily on its coastal appeal above all else.
In the future, visitors might want to pay more attention to tide cycles when booking trips during the fall or winter rainy season. Choosing accommodations slightly inland or uphill—even just a few blocks—could become a trend. Being aware of flood-prone areas around key choke points like the Honolulu airport, Ala Moana shopping center, and parts of Waikiki may become a more common part of trip planning than it ever was.
Final thoughts on what’s ahead.
Ultimately, the study doesn’t say the islands are sinking in some dramatic, overnight collapse. However, it does show how outdated assumptions about change timelines can create blind spots—especially for travelers and tourism, which is based on the belief that everything in Hawaii will look and feel the same year after year.
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lol. That’s ok. Thanks anyway. I don’t need any more reasons to not go to Hawaii. I’ve already got plenty. Reading about reclaimed filled swampland (predictably) sinking under your feet is just icing on the cake. Something more to laugh at and mock.
Sinking is literally how the Pacific Islands work. You have young Islands like Hawaii which are still volcanically active, then once the volcanoes die out a barrier reef forms around the island, such as Rarotonga or Tahiti, and then lastly is the “atoll faze.” Once the main volcanic part of the island is full submerged sand and broken coral pile up on the reef forming an atoll that surrounds the old island (becoming a lagoon), examples are Tuvalu, the Marshall Islands, and Kiribati. Millions of years from now Oahu will look like Majuro in the Marshall Islands.
Wow! Like Majuro! I’ve been there…. that’s a drastic change!
All you need to do, is look at the total history of the islands, they all sink! There’s a new island coming up just east of the Big Island. However, it’s not on a human time clock.
The swamp is reclaiming it’s rightful area. Man thinks he can “fix” things to be the way he wants it…drain a swamp, fill it in and build on it…what could possibly go wrong? People forget by the Zoo was water and islands (Makee Island). Same on the Big Island, build on old lava fields then be amazed when Pele decides you shouldn’t be there.
Oh the sky is falling! I am more concerned about raising the taxes on vacation rental properties, already some of the highest tax rates world-wide. I doubt Hawaii has more environmental concerns that most other vacation destinations. Let’s just put fear into the minds and hearts of the common visitor, so that the billionaires, of which their are plenty, especially in Kauai and Maui, will enjoy less crowded roads, even more privacy, and can hold captive the local workforce as common tourism dries up. And oh, the maintenance fees on your timeshare unit rose dramatically due to insurance premiums rising? Timeshare units on Kauai’s North Shore are no more in danger of flooding than they have always been. The billionaire CEO of the insurance company your timeshare works with is laughing all the way to the First Hawaii Bank in Princeville, nearby his multi-million dollar estate…
What billionaire insurance company CEO might that be?
Hate to say it, but serves Maui and Greene right for telling us not to come to Maui, plus that incredibly stupid plan of yours to get rid of vacation rentals. As if Hawaiian’s can afford them.
Get real Maui!! Get a life!! Put your tail between your legs and nix that ridiculous bill before your demise. You will die without those vacation rental tax revenues. Figure it out. Are you that incompetent or just plain stupid and stubborn?
Have heard some basic similar news for the Miami FL area and I’m sure there are unfortunately many more locations facing similar fates worldwide…… Better enjoy your travel experiences while you can !
The entire SE US coast is subsiding at an alarming rate. The NY Times blames climate change causing sea level rise. But it is actually caused by subsidence caused by multiple factors, mostly underlying sediment compacting aggravated by excessive water extraction (wells).
S Florida faces everglades organic deposit decomposition and underground limestone dissolving by water.
Wouldn’t it be nice if environmentalists were honest about these phenomenon?
The whole world land mass is sinking as the North and South Poles are melting thru climate change. So just enjoy your every Hawaii visit as the Hawaii group of Islands will not actually sink in the next thousand years and beyond….
I have tried to get a better handle on rate of subsidence. What the study introduces is a new concept which is the rate is not equal on all parts of Oahu. Past studies address average rates, so we must look at this issue differently.
The average rate of subsidence on Maui is 2 mm per year. So looking at sea level rise at the Kahului harbor, this means that sea level rise is miniscule. The whole sea level rise catastrophe dialogue is fake. Subsidence is a real threat, but the science around sea level rise requires a restart and abandonment of climate change dogma.
This makes me wonder if the state is planning anything proactive to protect travelers and infrastructure—or if we’re going to see become all last-minute emergency fixes after it’s too late. $849M in airport bonds won’t matter much if the road’s wash out.
In the book “The Last Resort: A Chronicle of Paradise, Profit, and Peril at the Beach” the author states plans have been discussed in Waikiki as the water rises including such measures as moving coastal hotel check-in desks to second floors and what might happen if instead of sand at the back of the hotels, it is now in front of them.
While I’m usually skeptical about long-range projections, when the data says it’s already happening during high tides, that’s a red flag. If the airport access is even slightly disrupted, it changes everything about trip planning in the future.
We got stuck last year near the Honolulu airport after a storm, and the flooding was bad enough that our rideshare driver refused to go through. Needless to say it was a mess. Thought it was an anomaly, but clearly not.
Poor drainage does Not equate to sea level rise! Have you ever driven around and observed trees and other bushes growing out of the storm drains!? Yeah, that’s call lousy maintenance by Hawaii’s infamous department of transportation that has quite successfully completely screwed up airport operations across the islands too!
Between the high costs and now this? Hawaii’s starting to feel like a much more fragile destination than I had ever assumed. This one will be interesting to see unfold.
I’ve been staying in the same Ala Moana condo for years—didn’t realize that area was at risk of this kind of flooding. Makes me sad about the future there.
Hello – Thanks for the great information. Timeshare properties are also experiencing huge maintenance fee increases due to insurance premiums rising. Our north shore Kauai property went up $600 – the highest ever. This will likely affect everyone who owns a timeshare in Hawaii. Andy S