If you already have 2026 travel booked or are in the middle of planning it, clearly everything has changed. Thinking about trips and their costs no longer looks the same as they did even just days ago. And, in case this feels like déjà vu, in many ways it is.
Any time international destinations start to feel less predictable, the same pattern returns. Travelers look domestic and they think Hawaii. It feels completely familiar. Visitors have repeatedly turned to the islands when they want to get away from nonstop headlines and uncertainty. For West Coast travelers and families first and foremost, Hawaii has long been the easy fallback. No passport. No currency shift. No international travel. Typically just one flight and you are still in the United States.
The Iran war in the Middle East together with recently renewed violence in major Mexican tourist destinations has made travelers, including us, think twice about overseas plans. Beat of Hawaii editors are heading outside the US next month for more global contrasts with Hawaii tourism issues, and it certainly has given us pause.
On the other side of the coin, the cost of Hawaii vacations has surged dramatically in recent years. That has eroded middle-class demand while less cost-constrained travel has remained strong. Visitors still want tropical destinations. If travelers start second-guessing Cancun or other resort markets and international markets start to feel more complicated, the spillover has to go somewhere. Hawaii is again the obvious landing spot.
Every time the world wobbles, Hawaii picks up significant demand.
This pattern has played out before. After 9/11, Hawaii saw redirected demand as international travel contracted sharply. In the early post-Covid period, when overseas reopening lagged and entry rules shifted constantly, Hawaii surged because it felt stable and accessible. Even a modest redirection tightens availability in our island market that already runs hot and expensive during peak seasons.
At the same time, oil prices just jumped. Jet fuel can account for nearly half of an airline ticket’s cost. When fuel rises, domestic airlines do not announce it with a surcharge, even when hedging softens the blow. They simply adjust inventory, pull back on discount buckets, and let peak fares drift higher. The first thing to disappear is any sale-like Hawaii airfare you were hoping to grab.
Hawaii flights see fuel increases more than shorter domestic routes.
That’s because of the duration. A five to six hour flight from the West Coast burns far more fuel than a short mainland hop. If fuel costs remain elevated for several weeks or longer, summer pricing is likely to reset higher, and once it resets, it does not snap back soon. For travelers who are already stretching to afford Hawaii, that shift can show up as the loss of an airfare that felt like it made the trip work more easily.
This is where the Hawaii visitor squeeze becomes obvious. Redirected demand pushes more travelers toward Hawaii at the same time that airline operating costs are rising. Stronger demand plus higher airline expenses is rarely a recipe for lower ticket pricing. The industry will see fuller planes and higher fares. The middle-class Hawaii traveler will feel less room in the budget and fewer airfare options for starters.
Airlines are coming under financial pressure beyond fuel that impacts Hawaii. International routes normally generate strong margins. If that demand weakens, carriers will look to protect margins on other routes. Hawaii leisure travel is likely the place to see pricing hold higher. Alaska Airlines, still deep in its integration of Hawaiian Airlines, has no appetite to impact earnings via a fuel shock on top of already high merger costs. Increasingly there is little incentive anywhere in the system right now to aggressively discount Hawaii airfare.
The Hawaii cost ripple extends far beyond airfare.
Hawaii imports the great majority of what it consumes, impacting both visitors and residents. When oil prices move higher, shipping costs follow, and that pressure impacts everything from rental cars and groceries to restaurant meals and tour pricing. The total trip cost can climb across multiple categories even when no single price jump makes headlines.
Consumer confidence is a major wildcard. Geopolitical instability and market volatility make families think twice about big trips, and, while still domestic, a Hawaii vacation still sits squarely in that category. Travelers pivoting away from overseas markets can keep demand strong at the top end, but greater uncertainty can slow the important middle-range. Higher-priced rooms and premium seats may continue to sell, while travelers seeking value search longer for deals that may not come back.
Global instability is making Hawaii more desirable at the same time it is making Hawaii more expensive to reach. That dual effect has played out before, and Hawaii is not shielded from it now.
Note: We are focused exclusively on Hawaii travel and intentionally avoided politics. Please do the same in comments in order for us to publish them. Mahalo.
Lead Photo Credit: © Beat of Hawaii at Laie Beach Park on Oahu.
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LOL, rich people’s problems……..enjoy and stop complaining…..I am doing that and I am stuck in Qatar returning from our condo in BKK….
We wintered in a modest second home in Waimea for many years and returned because of our age, and the kind of slim medical facilities and doctor supply. Loved it there, insulated from high tourist costs (but not the high general cost). I honestly don’t understand the resiliency of tourist demand for Hawaii… just plain compared to the many very nice, also utterly beautiful places on the mainland. The prices? Puzzling to me that many more are not discouraged. Aloha? For me, loads of places on the mainland have very nice, caring people…for a tourist, the claimed unique characteristics would be kind of an illusion.. again, because people are quite nice, very nice, nearly everywhere. All this said, I do very well understand fears of going outside the U.S. And…that long, long, long and for most highly uncomfortable and stressful air travel? I’d like to hear what others think.
Anymore reasons for Hawaii to increase hotel rates, restaurant menu prices, park fee’s, and everything under the sun to pass along to the tourist? IMO Hawaii is already getting to be classified as a non worth it over priced vacation destination.
Don’t be stupid. I asked an airline employee how much fuel it takes to get to the west coast USA to Hawaii and he said it depends on air density, weather conditions etc. I then asked how much is the plane hold. He replied we are filling it with 1050 lbs of fuel for our flight plans. 1050 lbs is roughly 125 gallons. At 30.000 feet the air is thinner and less drag so airlines don’t consume much fuel. On this 737-300 the cost in fuel at $3.50-6.50 a gallon today how much do you think 125X$3.50-6.50 per gallon. Maybe $1000 dollars at most. How much should your ticket cost rise because of this inflation issue? IMO just like Hawaii. Pay up the nose for things that cost pennies to make. How much do airlines make per flight? $250,000 if everybody’s ticket was $1000 of course not counting the cost of pilot and crew wages etc. Most of the ticket price IMO is to pay for the cost of the plane.
That’s wildly inaccurate. Our A330 flights from West coast to Hawaii average anywhere between 70,000-84,000 pounds of fuel depending on loads, winds, ground time etc. We wouldn’t make it off the ground with 1050 pounds of fuel.
Your numbers are off… minimum 25,000-30,000 lbs of fuel to cross the Pacific. Calling 4,000 gallons. Widebodies are nearly twice as much
We have the odd situation of a family gathering in Cancun coming in April a well as being currently on a vacation in the Philippines right now (we are Big Island residents). The Mexico situation seems to have been wildly overblown as my sister was in PV when the drama went down and flights resumed the next day. Whether that substantively effects Hawaii travel, maybe? But that to me seems isolated and people have pretty short memories. I think that the conflict in Iran just won’t be allowed to continue for long due to the regions much more central economic and transportation position now compared to 1991 or even 2001. Oil prices will probably be the one thing that will be the lasting ripple since that is good for the Middle Eastern players, but instability is not. Hawaii definitely benefits from instability outside of US borders but it looses more than it gains when oil prices and supply chains are disrupted. Increased tourism can’t fix that.
In the last couple of years, many of your readers posted comments about their desire to make Mexico a new vacation destination. Not seeing that too much lately.
From a resident perspective this is troubling. Every time Hawaii ends up absorbing redirected tourism demand it’s good for the economy but it also means crowded beaches, traffic, and rising prices for those of us who live here.
I’m a travel agent in California and I can tell you my bookings for Hawaii picked up immediately. People are not canceling vacations. They’re wanting to redirect them. Hawaii and Alaska are the two places I’m suddenly getting asked about again.
Please compare fuel prices from 2022-2024 and now… get back to me when you see it.
Yes, in 2022 we were paying 6 bucks a gallon here in California
I saw $7.50 a gallon in the Loyola Maramount University area of LA.
We’ve been working on a trip to Portugal this summer, but the more headlines we read the less appealing any overseas trip is. So we’re thinking Hawaii but the big shocks were the airfares and hotels.
Your timing is perfect. I was literally just talking to a coworker who canceled a Caribbean cruise and is now thinking of going back to Maui instead. I think a lot of travelers are thinking through similar decisions right now.
My husband and I had originally planned Italy this year but recently started reconsidering. Between the cost (also not cheap), long travel days from West Coast, and everything going on overseas, Hawaii suddenly feels a lot easier for 2026. It’s still expensive, but the logistics are simple and we know exactly what we’re getting. And then we’ll plan for Italy next year.
I cannot tell you how much I enjoy your daily emails. So perfectly written. Keep up the great writing. Lisa
We went through this discussion last night. Our summer plan was Greece and Turkey, but now the idea of dealing with long-haul travel, connections, and everything else just feels like a lot right now. Hawaii keeps coming up in the conversation because it feels easiest. We’ll see.
One thing missing here is cruise travel. We were planning a Mediterranean cruise this summer but now we’re undecided. And if those itineraries get disrupted, passengers have to go somewhere too and again Hawaii is one likely spot.
I live on Oahu. It’s interesting when global events suddenly become Hawaii stories. Tourism here is so tied to the rest of the world and nothing really happens in isolation any longer.
We were considering Cancun this summer but honestly may now be leaning toward Kauai again. It’s more expensive but it feels easier right now.
If it’s not one thing its another. And Hawaii being the “safe fallback” has long been a real thing.
We booked Hawaii months ago for this coming summer and I’m honestly glad we did. Prices seemed crazy at the time but now they may come to look almost reasonable. Any reason for gouging is a good one.
We booked a few months ago for July and as usual I am glad we did. Prices went way up even prior to all this turmoil.
Airlines hedge a majority of their fuel…some up to 80 percent. This hedging can cover years of fuel costs so we may Not see a jump in airfare. Of course the airlines could raise fares just because the public anticipates it and would blame it on fuel costs…therefore increasing profits
I work in logistics and fuel costs ripple everywhere, not just airlines which are largely hedged on near-term costs. If oil stays high for even a little while the impact on Hawaii will show up in a lot more places than just flights. Inevitable.
Seems like every time something goes sideways internationally Hawaii gets busier. What worries me now is that Hawaii was already expensive before all of this so what will happen to costs?
I think the old adage act in haste repent at leisure applies. I doubt this will be allowed to fester like Desert Storm and Afghanistan. Mexico has always had good and bad areas. No real change there now.