In the past few months, data shows a shift in Hawaii vacation rentals has started. And it may well be for the better from the visitor’s point of view. But there’s more to it than that.
It isn’t entirely clear what this change in pricing of Airbnb Hawaii vacation rentals implies for future visitor spending here. Could Hawaii tourism be finally less robust, or is this only an adjustment in relation to the ridiculous increases the Hawaii vacation rental market has seen over pre-Covid pricing?
Drop in Airbnb Hawaii vacation rental rates.
One data industry data source for Hawaii vacation rental rates is alltherooms.com. We check there to get an idea of recent performance, which currently goes through April 2023. Their data indicates that some of the highest-priced Hawaii vacation rental markets are among those in the US that have recently seen the greatest drops in daily rental rates.
- Kaanapali Maui. February $761. April $455. Down 40%.
- Wailea Maui. February $776. April. $481. Down 37%.
- Kona Big Island. February $298. April $247. Down 12%.
- Princeville Kauai. February $391. April $350. Down 11%.
- Honolulu Oahu. February $208. April $197. Down 6%.
Other places in the US that have also reported recent rate drops include Nashville, Phoenix, Myrtle Beach, and Florida beach destinations of Panama City and Orlando.
Latest state data on Hawaii vacation rentals is inconclusive on price drops.
The latest month for which the state has its own data about vacation rental performance is May 2023. And in that month, both occupancy and rates were mixed, although occupancy was decidedly low. Occupancy was just 54% statewide, down 16% compared with 2022.
Big Island: Occupancy was 44%, -20%. The average rate was $228, down 2%
Kauai: Occupancy was 52%, -19%. The average rate was $375, down 5%
Maui: Occupancy was 60%., down 15%. The average rate was $344, up 6%
Oahu: Occupancy was 57%, down 10%. The average rate was $231, up 10%.
Conflicting data on Hawaii vacation rentals.
Various travel industry analysts have chimed in on these recent changes, but none agree on the cause, or the exact data points themselves. Hawaii vacation rental platform Vacasa said recently that business is finally on a downward trend after two years of record bookings. “We continue to see evolving booking patterns as the industry comes off of two record years, and we are experiencing some renewed bookings softening, especially on the close in part of the booking curve.”
This could be good for Hawaii visitors.
What’s happening in this regard is making for a most unusual summer season; perhaps even an ideal time to plan a last-minute trip while staying in a Hawaii vacation rental.
A changing Hawaii travel landscape.
Some Hawaii visitors are moving on from Hawaii to other places. We’ve seen it in your many comments, and it is clear as we study the global travel industry. Those who, in the past few years, have focused on safe and easy Hawaii are expanding their horizons for multiple reasons. One of the most important of which is that Hawaii has become too expensive for many. Visitors are now feeling more comfortable traveling internationally again, and so Hawaii finds renewed competition as a destination. How much visitors are willing to spend on a domestic Hawaii vacation is definitely in a state of flux.
Vacasa said that it simply isn’t seeing the volume of return visitors to places, like Hawaii, that performed well over the past couple of years. They said, “We are in a very different demand environment than we were a year ago.”
Last-minute Hawaii vacation rental deals even this summer?
Perhaps, but not necessarily. Why? We know that occupancy rates are in a continuous state of modest decline or more. So that could mean last-minute deals. Some owners, whether listing on Airbnb or elsewhere through a vacation rental management company, may now be willing to negotiate prices. And it never hurts to ask. On the other hand, vacation rental owners feel squeezed by high costs and, in some cases, mortgages that leave them holding out for top dollar as long as possible.
US visitors don’t seem deterred from travel overall.
Despite declining prices in some Airbnb markets, like Hawaii in particular, U.S. visitors don’t yet seem to be scared off from vacationing this summer or thereafter. Instead, what appears to be happening is that consumer spending remains in a shift focused on experiences like exotic travel and away from goods. The question is whether more of that visitor spending will be leaving Hawaii for places further afield.
I am an Airbnb host and to me, this decrease is due to the hotel lobby winning nationwide with their campaign to ban vacation rentals. They are delivering falsehoods regarding vacation rentals, saying they are the cause for the housing shortage and the increase in crime.
Of course, that is entirely untrue, but many people believe the propaganda.
I am a 65 year old woman who has been running an upstanding vacation rental for 10 years. It’s the first time in my career that I made decent money.
But with the current restrictions on vacation rentals, I can now only rent for 31 days or more, not the typical 3-5 day stay, so of course, my income has dropped to barely nothing.
Of the hosts who are able to continue renting short term (3-5 days), many seem to provide less quality rentals than I did, and so travelers are steering away from Airbnb now.
What we’re seeing is the demise of mom and pop businesses, and the big corporations winning again, because there is no line that they’re unwilling to cross.
Aloha from South America. We had planned another 2 weeks in Hawaii until I started looking at the cost. Then I started looking at where we could go for the same price. So here we are on a 4 country tour of South America for the same cost as Hawaii. We have been coming to Hawaii for the past 25 yrs, but the cost is not worth it anymore. Hopefully next year we can come back “home” to visit. I miss the golfing and catching up with friends.
First ever comment but long term reader.
Too much ‘noise’ coming from the islands – airfare and lodging price increases, airport issues, charges to park, charges to go to a beach park, animosity towards vacationers, large tax increases, food price increases, lack of staff – it’s all about bad news.
I asked my wife about going to Hawaii last week. She said no. Let’s do Mexico.
Yesterday we booked to go to Puerto Vallarta.
Hawaii is the nicest place we have ever visited. Unless we feel things are feeling friendlier, our visits to the islands are probably over.
I thought Hawaii wanted tourists to go elsewhere and many were saying to please stop coming here….. I had read many articles about this. So this could be in response to that
The same reason the airfare does a similar drop during the winter months. Nothing new has happened every year for the past 20+
I believe that monetary correction is part of good old capitalism at work. If you over price your product, don’t be surprised when your demand starts to disappear and competition from elsewhere starts taking your customers away. There is no need for spending Hawaii taxpayer dollars on some magic formula (via “studies”) when the marketplace will correct itself. Just remember how many of the rental condo owners don’t live here anyway!
This is wonderful news for the land, natives, locals, and ocean! Many travelers are just social media folks hoping to post their picture on the I did it now post. I Love The Islands, and maybe it will become more affordable for us that really respect it and are visiting for the right reasons. It truly is not a disneyland atmosphere destination, well, it became one, the the abuse of the land took its toll. I think the owners of the condos, will be sad to see the prices drop, because they were making it! But, it is a blessing for us that love the real Hawaii!
We have a 3 week trip from the UK to LA booked for August. Back in 2018 we had an additional week in Hawaii (Oahu) and I was looking to do the same again this year, maybe 10 days. However the accommodation prices were ridiculous and instead we have a week AI in Cabo, Mexico which is much more competitive and the whole package with flights far cheaper than a weeks air bnb. I hope if they do come down they stay down but if we like Cabo then maybe we will just stick to there in future
Maui and Kauai are exorbitantly over priced, so to see prices drop there, brings them back closer to what they should be. Why anyone would pay $900+ a night for a garden room with no view at a Wailea “resort” is beyond me.
I am a vacation rental owner on the north shore of Kauai. I predicted this was going to happen as So Many people came to the islands after the Covid shutdown because they thought it was easy, safe, and they were unwilling to fly internationally. Now that the world has opened up and the dollar is strong, they are heading to other places. I went to a VRBO luncheon in May and they gave these statistics for Kauai’s market trends (Dec. 2022 – May). Net Bookings: Down 19%, Net Booked Revenue: Down 12.6%, Total Searches: Down 9%, Live Listings: Up 14.7%. I thought the last statistic was telling.
At some point it had to happen. Combine greedy vacation rental owners with a tapped out customer base who is tired of the price gouging and add in an economic downturn (aka…recession) and this is what you get. It does not take a rocket scientist or even a PHD in economics to figure this out. Hawaii wanted fewer visitors and now they are getting their wish. Once people stop coming and find cheaper options that are just as nice it is going to be very difficult to get them to come back.
Vacasa said that it simply isn’t seeing the volume of return visitors to places, like Hawaii, that performed well over the past couple of years. They said, “We are in a very different demand environment than we were a year ago.”
If other folks had the same experience as we had with Vacasa, it’s no wonder they’ve seen a drop in rentals. We continue to rent via VRBO and AirB&B when operated independently especially after Vacasa and are very satisfied and happy with independent owners.
Hi Dot.
Got it. That’s a whole other story.
Aloha.
I get it and understand – both ways. We booked our two families at an airbnb, on the beach and north shore Oahu. A family emergency canceled us out and the place was far too big for us 4 so the owners were beyond kind and gave us 100% of the deposit back. We already booked the airfare for 4 so when it came time to book airbnb for us 4, sticker shock took over! Not just the nightly fee but the taxes, booking fees, state taxes, tips, fees for going barefoot..(you get the exaggeration) but we found a broker and bypassed most others and will now be able to enjoy that family time. I used to travel (pre Covid) to the Hawaiian islands every year, sometimes twice a year but this whole nickle and diming is a true turnoff. When the cost of flights and stays outpace a family vacation to Europe…sorry Hawaii, it’s aloha time! They do have a tough decision on whether to keep visitors or eliminate them and replace us with a viable alternative industry that will sustain the Hawaiian lifestyle and culture. For now, until they get it together and fix their mess at home, they need to stop pointing at the Hauli for everything wrong. I live in SoCal, between the homeless and corruption, it’s visible on everything wrong and where that buck stops! Why would I fly 6 hours from LA and land into another area with vast homeless and crime? And we now have to pay More fees to experience this?
PS I have been coming to the islands since 1977 and bring nothing but love and respect, have brought Christmas to Kalaupapa in Molokai to residents and workers and flew bags of McDonalds to the residents – for a barbeque! Bag the pork luau, they were in heaven with a McD’s lunchspread!
Hawaii will always be my second home, I just will take my time to revisit.
I didn’t know that Orlando is a “beach” destination…maybe about 45 minutes away to Cocoa Beach away…although if you arrive into Melbourne/Orlando airport…different story – then you have arrived and can walk to the beach!
Air, Hotel, Car Rental, Accommodation Tax. Tourism Tax by the State is Killing Tourism… not to mention.. cost to eat out is notoriously expensive… And the state has implemented charges to some of Hawaii Beaches & Visitors Scenic sites… it a bummer for Hawaii… I much rather go on a Ship Cruise instead of visiting Hawaii… much less with accommodation & food covered.
I love reading your articles, but I’m a tad confused. Do you want “us” (travelers) or not? I read that tourists disrespect the residents and the land. Stay home seems to be an overwhelming mood ( I used to live there, btw). But the money tourists spend is the lifeblood of your economy. We aren’t going to phone it in on this one, so Hawaii needs to decide if they’re the Aloha state or the Scram state. For my family, we’re trying Tahiti this next ho around. Hawaii has some kinks to work out, imho.
Hi DJ.
Enjoy Tahiti. Please let us know how it goes.
Aloha.
As I had posted a few months back, the Waikoloa Resort, Big Island condo I rented frequently, from 2010 on, increased in price from approximately $3500/month to 》$9500/ month, the latest quote which was for this upcoming Dec/Jan. This owner I deal with doesn’t increase her prices at Christmas either. I have rented so frequently from her that I am comfortable dealing directly, as opposed to through VRBO, so I would have been saving the VRBO surcharges.
(Then there is the separate issue of the Canadian dollar….currently $1.36CAD/$1.00USD. )
I am priced out of Hawaii. My first visit was 2003, with my grandmother. I am very grateful for my past Hawaii visits. I suspect I am not alone.
Last summer we planned a last-minute trip to Maui because we got a price break on a rental (filling an unusual start/end time and had plenty of airline miles to spend.)
This year, the price for the same place was high and not something we’d consider even though we still have miles to “spend.”
Several families we know decided to try Europe for the first time this summer.
With what is happening in France right now, it will be interesting to see how that affects future vacation choices.
Only makes sense,cents. Americans now have options for travel. Until recently you can pay through the nose for a Hawaiian vacation or just stay on the mainland or visit closer and cheaper tropical destinations like the Caribbean or Mexico. IMO, people will go far and wide but when Hawaiian prices and availability level out people from all over the world will seek out that Aloha vacation.