Why Hawaii’s Visitors Are Telling A Different Story Now

Hawaii’s visitors are changing in ways few expected. While past trends focused on rising costs and shorter stays, 2025 brings a new wave of shifts—some subtle, others dramatic. From evolving travel patterns to unexpected booking behavior, the story of who’s coming to Hawaii, how they’re spending, and what they’re looking for is taking a fresh turn.

Visitor arrivals in January increased 3.8% over last year, reaching 792,177, while spending jumped 4.7% to $1.89 billion. This marks six consecutive months of growth, yet not all sectors see the same success level. While U.S. visitors fuel the increase, key international markets are still lagging, and some islands are rebounding faster than others.

U.S. visitors are driving the comeback.

This surge in Hawaii travel mainly comes from the mainland, with the U.S. West and U.S. East seeing notable increases. The U.S. West remains the largest contributor, with 368,123 visitors, up 3.4% from last year. The U.S. East followed with a 7.8% jump to 207,519 visitors.

Not surprisingly, these visitors are spending more. Daily spending from the U.S. West rose 3.6% to $240 per person, while U.S. East visitors spent $264 per person, a 1.2% increase. However, there’s a twist—despite higher spending, visitors are staying for shorter periods. All visitors’ average length of stay dropped to 9.67 days, down 1.8% from January 2024.

This shift suggests that while travelers are willing to spend, they are more selective, possibly opting for fewer days but prioritizing premium experiences.

Japan remains far from recovery, but with interesting twists possible.

One of the biggest missing pieces in Hawaii’s tourism puzzle remains Japan. In January, only 54,296 visitors arrived despite efforts to boost tourism—a slight 2.6% increase over last year but a staggering 54.9% drop from January 2019, when 120,418 Japanese travelers visited.

Visitor spending from Japan has followed a similar trajectory, reflecting increased costs in the islands. Spending reached $83.2 million—up 5.6% from last year but still down 52% from pre-pandemic levels. While spending per visitor is growing, the overall impact of fewer travelers is significant.

Air capacity from Japan remains another major factor. Compared to pre-pandemic, the number of flights has been cut nearly in half. Nonstop flights to Kona have been eliminated, and without more seats, a full recovery seems unlikely anytime soon.

However, there are some changes ahead. ZIPAIR, which had suspended its service, is now flying three times per week between Tokyo Narita and Honolulu, with flights scheduled through October 23. Whether this signals a broader return of low-cost carriers to Hawaii remains to be seen, but additional capacity could be a step toward revitalizing Japan’s presence in Hawaii tourism.

Rumors are that ZIPAIR may partner with a U.S. airline for Hawaii flights shortly.

Canada continues losing Hawaii visitor momentum.

Canadian visitors tell a slightly different story. While arrivals were up 0.6% from last year at 54,333, spending was down 3.4% to $150 million. This drop in spending was primarily driven by shorter trips including the typically longer-staying snowbirds, with the average stay falling 4.1% to 12.28 days.

Unlike Japan, air capacity isn’t as much of a constraint for Canadian arrivals. However, a weaker Canadian dollar, rising travel costs, and the current political climate have and may continue to discourage Canadians’ Hawaii vacations.

Maui’s slow climb back.

Maui, greatly seeking a return to normalcy in tourism, saw a hefty 15.8% increase in visitors, reaching 202,738 in January. This is a positive sign for the island following the 2023 wildfires that devastated it and its tourism. Improvement notwithstanding, Maui still remains 13.1% below January 2019.

Spending on Maui grew to $531.1 million, recovering 5.4% from last year. However, the island’s recovery remains uneven and somewhat lackluster. Some travelers continue to choose other islands, while some longtime visitors have moved to other non-Hawaii alternative destinations entirely.

Oahu holds steady as Kauai and the Big Island outperform.

Oahu, as Hawaii’s most visited island, continues to attract large numbers, though growth there was modest. January saw 456,607 visitors, just a 1.4% increase from last year, while spending climbed based on higher costs rose 5.7% to $775.8 million.

Meanwhile, Kauai and the Big Island yielded great results last month, with double-digit percentage increases in visitors compared to pre-pandemic 2019. Kauai’s arrivals rose 4.9% to 111,293, and the Big Island saw an even stronger 10.6% jump to 158,141 visitors.

Despite welcoming more visitors, both islands have also seen shifts in how tourists spend their money. The Big Island, for instance, in spite of a nearly 11% increase in visitors, only saw spending rise by 2% to $305.4 million, suggesting visitors may be spending more conservatively.

Air travel to Hawaii remains in flux.

Total air capacity to Hawaii in January increased slightly from last year, with 5,032 transpacific flights carrying 1,122,877 seats. However, flights were still down 2.4% from pre-pandemic 2019.

Domestic flights have been increasing, particularly from the U.S. East, where air capacity is up 10.2% from last year.

But international flights tell a different story. Japan’s seat capacity has remained down 39.6% from 2019, Canada’s has been down 27.7%, and flights from Korea have dropped by 32.1%. The continued reduction limits Hawaii’s ability to diversify its visitor base beyond domestic tourism. The drop in international visitors has also been incredibly profound for Hawaiian Airlines (now part of Alaska Airlines), which had the lion’s share of Asia-Pacific routes before the pandemic.

While some airlines are beginning to reinstate service, the pace remains slow. ZIPAIR’s limited return helps, but overall airlift constraints hinder full recovery in the international segment.

Is cruise tourism making a comeback?

One of the more surprising aspects of January’s tourism data was the resurgence of cruise ship visitors. The state reported that 19,028 travelers arrived in Hawaii via cruise ships, a 6.7% increase over 2024. This also represents the second-highest number of January cruise visitors since the state started collecting data in 1999.

That notwithstanding, cruise visitors still only account for a tiny percentage of total arrivals. The cruise sector’s not insignificant growth reflects a possible shift in how some visitors choose to experience Hawaii.

Whether this trend continues will depend on cruise lines’ ability to expand itineraries to Hawaii. More ships could increase visitors without further pressuring Hawaii’s already costly and often constrained accommodations market.

What’s to expect next in Hawaii tourism?

January’s data reflects that the tourism industry is slowly recovering and evolving. The U.S. market, particularly the West Coast, remains the overwhelming backbone of Hawaii’s visitor industry. However, shorter stays and shifting spending habits are beginning to reshape the Hawaii experience.

At the same time, other destinations—including Mexico, the Caribbean, French Polynesia, and other tropical locales—continue to draw Hawaii visitors away, either temporarily or permanently. Cost is a significant factor, but other considerations also play a role.

Meanwhile, key international markets like Japan and Canada remain far from any meaningful comeback, and Maui’s recovery continues to be a work in progress, albeit improving.

With fluctuating air capacity and escalating costs, 2025 will be a year of transformation for Hawaii’s tourism industry. The big question remains: will visitor spending continue to grow even as travel patterns rapidly shift?

Are you staying less and spending more on your Hawaii vacation? We invite your comments.

Lead Photo – Makua “Tunnels” Beach Kauai