Your 2026 Hotel Bill In Hawaii May Surprise You

Hotel prices appear headed into a year of relative stability, according to one of the most widely watched industry forecasts. The Amex GBT Hotel Monitor 2026 suggests only modest increases globally, with most places seeing growth in the low single digits.

For Hawaii, however, the story will not be entirely straightforward. While base room rates are unlikely to surge, new taxes, combined with shifting demand, are set to push visitor costs higher. Read further for what that means for your next Hawaii vacation.

Hotel rates point toward moderation.

Every year, American Express releases its hotel pricing report, a benchmark used by travel planners and others to anticipate budgets and negotiate contracts. The 2026 edition shows year-on-year hotel rates climbing just 2 to 4 percent in most regions, far less dramatic than the double-digit jumps that dominated the early post-pandemic years. Here in Hawaii, rates also soared during that period, helping to cement the islands as one of the most expensive destinations in the U.S., if not the world.

Against that backdrop, the Amex forecast is notable because it points toward stabilization rather than another spike. Even major cities, such as London, Paris, and New York, are projected to rise by only a few percentage points, which sets the tone globally.

For Hawaii, that means the kind of double-digit rate jumps we saw after the pandemic are unlikely to return in 2026. Instead, visitors can expect a calmer pricing environment, although the overall cost of staying here will still increase for other reasons.

The Amex methodology blends proprietary booking data with macroeconomic inputs from the International Monetary Fund. It also takes into account the supply of new rooms coming online.

While the report highlights construction in cities abroad, in Hawaii, the pipeline of new hotels is limited, meaning rate stability here will hinge more on demand trends and visitor spending than on added inventory.

Hawaii hotel rates face different pressures.

Hawaii is not broken out in the Amex GBT report, but local forecasts suggest relative price stability here will stem from very different forces than in other global markets. While European capitals are balancing demand with new construction, Hawaii is headed into softer visitor demand and a mild economic contraction.

The University of Hawaii Economic Research Organization projects that 2026 will bring the state’s first recession since the pandemic. Statewide visitor arrivals are expected to decline, with tourism data indicating a drop in spending of more than $1 billion over the next two years.

Against that backdrop, hotels will have much less pricing power. Occupancy has softened from its post-pandemic highs, and discounts are appearing more frequently outside of holiday periods. While bargains are not guaranteed, it is far more likely that nightly rates will flatten rather than rise sharply, even as added taxes and fees continue to push costs higher.

The new green fee changes the equation.

Even if nightly rates remain relatively flat, visitors will pay more in 2026 due to increased taxes. Starting January 1, the statewide transient accommodations tax increases by 0.75 percent. The new revenue is earmarked for climate resilience efforts, including shoreline preservation, wildfire prevention, and other environmental priorities.

While not huge in its impact on visitors, that adjustment brings the statewide TAT to 11 percent. When layered with the 4.25 percent general excise tax and the additional 3 percent county surcharge, the lodging tax burden in Hawaii will approach 19 percent. Add resort fees that can run $40 to $75 per night, and parking that often costs an additional $50, and the bottom line becomes striking.

On a $300 nightly room, the new tax translates to about $2.25 more per night. That might sound minor, but combined with the already high levy, it underscores the sense that Hawaii lodging costs continue to rise, even without a headline rate hike.

How Hawaii compares with other destinations.

Hawaii’s situation differs from that of many other markets. Even if the sticker price of a room does not climb sharply in 2026, the combination of high taxes, resort fees, and parking charges makes the overall bill feel more expensive.

Other places are experimenting with their own tourist levies, but Hawaii’s version comes with a climate message that will show up to island visitors as just another charge.

What matters most is that Hawaii competes directly with other long-haul island destinations such as Tahiti, Fiji, and the Cook Islands. Once travelers arrive in those places, the daily costs can be noticeably lower than in Hawaii. That comparison is becoming part of the conversation for repeat visitors deciding where to spend their vacation dollars.

What Hawaii visitors will actually feel in 2026.

From the guest perspective, the headline will not be “rates stay flat.” Instead, it will be “Hawaii feels more expensive again.” Travelers will notice the combination of unchanged nightly rates, resort fees, higher taxes, and the ongoing service cutbacks that many hotels never fully restored following the pandemic.

In comments on our earlier coverage of the new fee, readers have been candid. Some said that while they understood the environmental justification, the constant new charges left them feeling exhausted. One wrote that between flights, car rentals, and now rising hotel add-ons, “the aloha has been replaced by surcharges.” Another pointed out that when you multiply the new fee across a two-week stay, it becomes noticeable.

At the same time, hotels are under pressure. Operating costs have surged due to increases in energy prices, wages, and insurance. Passing all of that along to guests in the form of higher nightly rates is difficult in a market already showing signs of fatigue. The new tax creates a way for the state to raise funds without hotels taking the blame, but from the guest’s standpoint, the effect is the same.

The psychology of value in Hawaii travel.

One of the less-discussed aspects of Hawaii pricing is the psychology of value. Visitors who have been coming for decades often measure today’s experience against their memories of past trips. They notice when the small touches are gone or when service feels less personal.

That is why headlines about “stable rates” can be misleading. For leisure travelers, it is not just about the number on the bill. It is about whether Hawaii is still worth it and whether the experience justifies the cost.

A moment for Hawaii to reflect.

The timing is critical. Hawaii remains in the global spotlight following the Maui fires and the ongoing debates about tourism management. Lawmakers want visitors to contribute to the cost of climate adaptation and infrastructure. At the same time, residents continue to voice frustration about the balance between visitors and community needs.

If 2026 becomes the year of flat rates but higher fees, the risk is that Hawaii cements an image of being one of the most expensive places to vacation. That could further dampen arrivals at a time when the economy needs stability.

What travelers can do.

For visitors planning trips in 2026, there are several strategies to consider. Booking early remains a smart move, as discounted inventory often sells out quickly. When it is cancellable and discounted, so much the better. Visiting outside peak holiday windows is another way to save, since both rates and airfares often soften. Comparing islands may also help, as Oahu, Kauai, and the Big Island typically have slightly lower hotel average rates than Maui.

It is also worth asking about resort fees and parking at the time of booking. Sometimes packages or loyalty perks can offset these costs. And while the new green fee is unavoidable, visitors who understand its purpose may feel better about contributing to projects that directly support the islands they love.

Reader question – what’s your response?

Are you planning a trip to Hawaii in 2026, and do these new fees alter your sense of value? Do you think stable room rates make up for the slightly higher taxes, or does it still all add to the feeling that Hawaii vacations are becoming less worth it?

We welcome your comments.