As Hawaii airlines contract and regroup, we predict they will return to a decades old hub approach to the Hawaiian Islands. That means Kauai and the Big Island (Hilo and Kona) could sadly return to yesteryear and take a back seat in terms of direct traffic. It only make sense that most nonstop traffic from the mainland would go to Honolulu and Maui, and be combined with interisland service when needed.
That’s just one more aspect of the New Hawaii, a paradigm we began talking about yesterday.
Hawaii-Centric Airlines – Our Best Predictions.
1. Alaska Airlines
Alaska has spent more than a decade creating a very successful Hawaii network based on nonstop flights to the four main islands. They may, however, be the airline to contract most of our three primary carriers, both in terms of overall, and specifically regarding flights to Hawaii.
Alaska has a significant disadvantage here over newcomer Southwest. They do not maintain their own interisland flights and will need to off-load connecting passengers to either Hawaiian or Southwest if Honolulu and Maui are hubs.
If Alaska has the traffic to retain nonstop to neighbor island flights, the most likely to be kept first are those from the Pacific Northwest, where they are the dominant carrier.
Alaska said yesterday we should expect, “a smaller industry and a potentially smaller company.” They also said that in order to preserve fast vaporizing cash and stay solvent, the company will make whatever cuts are necessary.
Alaska requested and subsequently received permission from U.S. Department of Transportation (DOT), to suspend flights to Kauai, Kona and Maui until September 30, if need be. We expect to see Maui flights resume sooner, but the other locations remain unclear at this time.
2. Hawaiian Airlines.
Hawaiian is the best positioned airline for this new Hawaii travel archetype. We see the company temporarily pulling back on some nonstop mainland flights to Kauai and Kona. These were added over the past couple of years as Hawaiian went from an all wide-body (767 and A330), to a primarily narrow-body (A321) mainland fleet. Their new planes are also highly efficient, and are very well suited for use in a reduced travel demand environment.
CEO Peter Ingram said yesterday that he is bullish inasmuch as late summer to fall bookings are running less than half-way (25% booked) behind where they would normally be (40% booked) at this point. On a recent earnings call he added, “I think people are tired of being cooped up. To the extent that they’ve got the flexibility and the economic wherewithal to do it, they’re going to want to travel, and Hawaii is going to be an appealing place, like it always is.”
Hawaiian had executed the Honolulu and Maui hub game for decades, when that was the only thing their fleet could reasonablyu do. And, Hawaiian can unquestionably do it well, again. With their extensive interisland capability, the airline can effiiently move passengers to and from the neighbor islands with minimal delay and without any change in carrier.
Hawaiian had requested and has received permission from U.S. DOT, to suspend flights to Boston, Las Vegas, Long Beach, New York, Oakland, Phoenix, Sacramento, San Diego, San Jose, and Seattle until September 30, if need be. The company has already brought the Seattle/Honolulu flight back, and others will return as traffic dictates.
3. Southwest Airlines.
Southwest either planned well or lucked out. They have created an interesting hybrid mainland/interisland model, that could uniquely serve them during this time. When they introduced direct flights to the four major Hawaii airports, they also created their own interisland service, utilizing the same planes that are traveling to and from the mainland. Thus, with minimal changes, it will be easy for Southwest to contract in terms of fewer flights to Kona and Kauai as needed, while not requiring off-loading of passengers to another carrier
We have not seen which Southwest routes DOT has approved suspension of, nor the duration.
4. Legacy Airlines
American, Delta and United have extensive flights to and from Hawaii and we expect their contraction here to be similar to the Hawaii-centric carriers. It will be some time before you need five airlines each running their own flights between LAX and Kauai, just as one example of excessive capacity that is ripe for significant reduction.
American received approval from DOT to eliminate all flights to Kauai, Kona and Maui through August 18, if needed. United received approval from DOT to eliminate all flights to Hilo, Kauai, Kona and Maui through September 30, if needed.
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We are scheduled to arrive on Maui June 24th and am hoping to make a final decision at the beginning of June. Will the decision be made by that time to extend the quar antine lift it?
My wife and I have travel plans to go to Honolulu on September 5th till the 12th. Will we have to stay in the hotel? If so I would have to cancel again.
“Please” I personally hope that Govenor Ige extenders the 14 day quar antine to all Hawaii Islands till the end of September 30th, so that the environment can heal it self a little more.” Thanks” in akua we trust.
Do you live and work in Hawaii? how will 40% of the currently unemployed feed their families and pay their rent if the islands stay closed until October?
Please remember that there’s a 14 day quar antine for all visitors to Hawaii and no date has been set for that mandate to be lifted. This means no leaving your hotel room or place of residence for two weeks. No going to the beach or going for walks or even going out to pick up food or go shopping. This is strictly enforced. I personally would not waste money going somewhere to sit in a hotel room for two weeks!
Have travel plans from 6/30-7/17/20 from Las Vegas to Maui. Did I read that Hawaiian Airlines will not fly from Las Vegas until September?
It looks as if Southwest is flying Las Vegas to Maui on your dates through CA. Don’t know if that helps you??
Yesterday, I checked Southwest for flights from Las Vegas to Kauai or Kona in September. I, in fact. booked flights knowing that I can easily cancel with SW. We have to connect through San Jose but will be flying (as of now!) into Kona. After staying for 6 nights in Kona, take SW inter-island flight to Kauai, stay 6 nights and fly home again though San Jose. Of course, this may all change, but as of now, there are flights into Kona and Kauai through SW.
Now, Hilton hotels on the other hand look pretty sparse and are very steep. I wonder if a lot of hotels just haven’t planned when and how to open. Hopefully, there will be more inventory to choose from on Kona and Kauai as things progress.
Also, hopefully Hawaii recovers well from the pan demic’s assault. I know Las Vegas is certainly going to struggle. Good luck to you.
Susan
We have a home on Kauai. Had to cancel our April 20th stay. We’re booked on Alaska for September 2nd. However our dog takes a large crate which inter-island hoppers can not fit in their holds. Hopefully there will be a direct Kauai flight from somewhere.
Hello Jacquelyn
We have the same situation with our fur-monster. We are flying to Kauai next week and have booked the services of Island Pet Movers to get our dog home to Kauai. If not for the human quar antine we would have been able to handle his transfer in Honolulu ourselves. Aloha Air Cargo can ship any size crate to Kauai and isn’t terrible expensive. Good luck to you!
Aloha
We have a confirmed timeshare in Maui during August 2020. Will it be safe to travel and enjoy the island? Thanks, Chuck
Hi Chuck.
There should be much more information about travel to Hawaii coming out soon. If you’re asking for our gut opinion now, the answer is yes.
Aloha.
Just found out our non stop flight from phx to lih on AA on 6/20 has been cx very sad!
Colleen C
I just thought they were going to not fly to Honolulu out of San Diego anymore my mistake until after the 30th of September like I said my mistake sorry and aloha
What do you know about flights from Canada?
It’s going to be very slow words in the mainland people not traveling because of thhis! We locals better watch this visitors coming in to our islands, the state better watch out money last our life first!
Disappointed to see HA suspend SAN-OGG until September 30. I would think that route is pretty lucrative for them but, alas, I guess not. Things are so fluid that they possibly could change that…maybe?
If I have airline tickets to Oahu in September how to send Diego I already bought them last year if you’re going to pull out of San Diego till the end of September would I have to switch airlines now
So, everything is still in flux for my 3 island trip in November in this order (Origin-PDX)…Kauai-Maui-BI. I have not purchased tickets yet due to the obvious reasoning but have been certainly watching them. My preference has always been with Alaska and the mainland direct flights they have to all three. So, that said and what is outlined here, maybe I should be looking more towards Hawaiian Airlines? I was only going to use HA for the inter-island legs of my trip.
Thanks
Hi Craig.
Portland flights to neighbor islands on Alaska is one of the most likely of all to be retained since they are dominant in the Pacific Northwest. Can’t say for sure, and we know they would love to keep them. It will be about the demand. Thanks for that question – it prompted us to update the post accordingly.
Aloha.
Don’t travel to Hawaii and absolutely do not fly with HA. The don’t know the meaning of ALOHA!
The locals and the state government seem to get an absolute thrill harassing unsuspecting tourists.
The state park is closed, but they won’t refund my reservation unless I request by email. Then they will charge me a cancellation fee. That is the ALOHA spirit for you!!
HA will not refund my airfare during the mandatory stay at home order. I don’t want a voucher because I do not wish to spend 1 penny to support Hawaii economy
Whatever.
Seems a bit harsh. Why did you want to go to Hawai’i in the first place?
As for Hawaiian Airlines, they seem to have been at least as good as other airlines as far as keeping passengers informed, giving refunds, etc.
After all, Hawai’i isn’t a Disney Magic Island where everything is perfect and everyone smiles 24/7. You pretty much get out of it what you put into it. And you gotta go with the flow.
I don’t think I’m being harsh. Do you want to vacation where the locals harass you and the state government quar antine you for 14 days? I don’t think it’s too much to ask for HA to refund my airfare and Waiʻānapanapa State Park refund my camping fee with out deducting the processing fee. Where is the Aloha spirit?
California state park refunded my camping fee including the non-refundable fee because the state parks are closed due to this. That’s how it should be.
I finally got a refund by going on their Facebook page. apparently they don’t like the bad publicity. try it.
Thank you so much for the site. Always happy to see it in my inbox.
Unless I’m missing something,your civic leaders and residents appear to be treating this seriously and doing what needs to be done to limit its spread.I say that,because it’s not the case in some states.
In the long run I have to believe you will be rewarded for your efforts.Travelers are going to return to the places where they feel safe.
Hang in there. No question we’ll be coming back to one of our favorite places on earth.
Thanks again for your work.
Hi Martin.
Thank you.
Aloha.
I have tickets from San Diego to Honolulu on September 9 and back on the 18 Sept to San Diego with Hawaiian airlines am I going to have to switch to a different carrier after I bought my tickets last year thank you mahalo Donna
Hi Donna.
No. Not sure why you think you would have to switch airlines. Unless we’re missing something.
Aloha.
Thank you so much for researching and updating the seemingly constant airline changes.
We are snowbirds living Hilo side in winter and Michigan in summer. Our flights back to Michigan with United Airlines this May have been cancelled four times! Since United will not be flying out of Hilo anytime soon, we are hoping to fly out on Delta Airlines from Kona early June. United was very easy to work with and the totally refunded our money with the last cancellation. What do you think our chances are getting on a Delta flight to the mainland early June? (Delta and United are the carriers to our local nearby airport in Michigan)
Thanks again and Mahalo!!
Hi Patricia.
Thanks so much.
Aloha.
Hello BOH: I fly between the mainland and Kauai multiple times per year as I have Ohana on the island. I have never flown on a Delta, UAL or other legacy carrier that was not packed to the gills with people. Never an empty seat! I cannot imagine why the legacy carriers would want to contract their flights to Kauai or anywhere in Hawaii for that matter. These cattle call flights are always full going back and forth. As I understand it, their pricing does reflect great dollars in revenue/seat mile. Thanks for what you do. You really are keeping me informed.
Hi Dale.
Air travel both domestically and globally, has already contracted to near zero, and building back from here will not take months, it will more likely take years. Not only are there the health issues in travel to be addressed, but there are unprecedented financial ones as well. You can read that everywhere. Hawaii is no different.
Aloha.
Do you see both WestJet and Air Canada continuing service from Vancouver or will that be reduced as well?
Aloha and thanks for the heads up on this.
I switched my mile-building credit card to Alaska last year after growing so fed up with Hawaiian lousy customer service and high mileage needed for a mainland ticket. Now I am wondering if sticking with Alaska is a good thing for next years travel. (all ready have enough for one RT mainland). What are your thoughts?
Thanks again
Ane T
Hi Ane.
Thanks for your comments! We also have and continue to use both branded cards. The airline biz will be unpredictable for some time it seems. For flights from Honolulu or Maui, Alaska should be no problem. But from the other islands, it seems they will need to pull back some of those flights. Then too, who knows what mileage award availability will be. It has been reasonably good on Alaska. Sorry to not know more.
Aloha.
We have flights scheduled with Alaska from San Jose to Lihue nonstop in Oct and return home in Nov five weeks later. Does this mean we need to rebook with another airline now?