United Airlines CEO Scott Kirby said Thursday that the U.S. airline industry is being redefined, and that only United and Delta are likely to emerge as the top performers. His pointed July 17 remarks were aimed at just about every other carrier, from American to Southwest, with one glaring omission: Alaska Airlines. And for Hawaii, that silence may say more than anything he did mention.
Why this matters to Hawaii travelers.
According to Scott Kirby, only two airlines will dominate. If he’s right, Hawaii flights could pay the price. United’s CEO says Delta and United are the only carriers strong enough to survive the current shakeup, thanks to their profitable networks, elite business travelers, and premium loyalty revenue. Everyone else, he argues, is flying routes that lose money and thus will be forced to pull back.
Airlines have long used Hawaii routes to fill aircraft time, court primarily leisure travelers, or absorb excess frequent flyer redemptions. But that model may be breaking. Carriers without structural advantages, United says, face a choice: drop marginal routes or raise prices. And with Southwest already cutting back, Hawaii travelers could soon see fewer options and higher costs, especially on routes to neighbor islands.
Who is in and who is out in Hawaii air travel.
Kirby didn’t need to name names. His comments drew a line between the haves and have-nots in the U.S. airline world.
In the “in” column: Delta and United. These carriers are doubling down on high-revenue hubs, international connections, and premium cabins. They are targeting travelers who spend more, and often spend more in Hawaii, too.
In the “out” column: JetBlue, Spirit, Frontier, and even Alaska and American, though Kirby did not mention them all directly, but rather by omission. What they have in common is exposure to leisure-heavy, price-sensitive markets, like Hawaii and Mexico, and weaker loyalty ecosystems.
Kirby believes these airlines will be forced to abandon unprofitable routes in the months ahead, while United and Delta continue to grow. If that is true, we may be looking at a Hawaii travel future shaped almost entirely by two behemoth airline CEOs in Chicago and Atlanta.
What Kirby’s silence on Alaska Airlines could mean.
The Alaska-Hawaiian merger was not mentioned in Kirby’s statement at all. That silence is hard to ignore.
If he believed Alaska was poised to challenge the big two in any way, he likely would have said something. Instead, he placed them in the same bucket as other carriers he sees as struggling with cost, loyalty, and route profitability. If correct, that may carry big implications for the future of Hawaii flights.
Alaska is about to complete the absorption of Hawaiian Airlines and become the biggest player flying to the Hawaiian islands. However, Kirby’s omission seems to suggest that United views this as a short-term gain, rather than a long-term threat. He may view the new Alaska-Hawaiian as overextended, burdened with complex interisland operations, Asian routes that underperform, and cost pressures that limit reinvestment. He didn’t say.
Still, it would be a mistake to count Alaska out. Editor Rob points out that Alaska now holds a uniquely powerful position in the Hawaii market with intensely loyal West Coast customers, a growing presence from key California airports, and a combined network that also spans both the Pacific Northwest and the Pacific. The Alaska-Hawaiian merger may not look like a Delta or United clone. Still, it could carve out a strong and distinct model, especially if it focuses on simplicity, reliability, and branding.
For travelers, that raises a tricky question: will the combined Alaska-Hawaiian operation be a serious competitor in Hawaii, or a larger but fragile player facing headwinds from stronger giants?
Less competition, more premium.
Both United and Delta are shifting toward premium leisure travelers, and Hawaii is a prime target.
United already runs a Polaris-type business service from the mainland to Honolulu, Maui and even Kauai. Delta is bringing Premium Select to more of its Hawaii routes. Both are adding lounges, better Wi-Fi, and richer loyalty perks. In contrast, Hawaiian’s free meals and hospitality focus may be harder to maintain if Alaska brings in its own unique model.
As weaker carriers pull back, the two remaining juggernauts could be free to set the tone for what Hawaii air travel looks and feels like. And increasingly, that tone is to be about luxury, loyalty, and, of course, higher fares.
For many Hawaii visitors, that shift is already noticeable. Economy seats are tighter. Discount deals are far harder to find. And more seats are being sold as upgrades, bundles, or upsells.
Hawaii flights could change fast if Kirby is right.
Kirby said that most other airlines are still flying “double-digit percentages” of money-losing routes. That comment matters because many Hawaii routes from non-primary west coast cities may fall into that non high-yield. If airlines are forced to drop them, it will not just be bad news for those airlines; it could reshape Hawaii access almost overnight.
Airlines like Southwest have already significantly trimmed their Hawaii schedules and cut back on new routes. That leaves the field increasingly open for United and Delta to try dominating the Hawaii market the way they dominate other key U.S. destinations.
What it means for your next trip to Hawaii.
Visitors may find that their favorite nonstop route no longer exists or has become significantly more expensive. Trip planning might require more connections or more flexibility. And the perks you used to get for free, such as meals, seating, and sometimes even checked luggage, may now come with a price tag.
If Kirby is right and the U.S. market is indeed narrowing, Hawaii may be among the first to feel it. The islands are remote, expensive to serve, and leisure-focused. In this new airline power structure, those traits may put Hawaii right on the edge between a strategic asset and a liability.
The losers? Potentially, the Hawaii travelers who relied on those other airlines.
Just one airline CEO’s view, or the future unfolding?
Kirby is not an independent analyst by any measure. He is the CEO of United and has every reason to position his company as one of the last carriers standing. However, he is also among the most experienced and forward-thinking airline executives in the industry. His track record includes leading United through a pandemic recovery and building a premium-heavy network strategy that appears to be working.
BOH editor Rob points out that Kirby’s statement is not an objective industry verdict, but a reflection of one airline’s playbook. Time will tell if he is right. When Scott Kirby talks, however, editor Jeff tends to listen.
That said, we’re also both flying American Airlines again after more than at any point in decades, and we are not alone. American’s recent shift toward premium routes, better business class suites, free Wi-Fi, improved customer service, and new widebody configurations is real, even if they have not yet marketed it well. They are gaining traction in some places, improving their lounges, and investing in their network again with new services. For now, their customer experience remains very uneven. But some believe that they too may be at the start of a long-overdue reinvention.
If Alaska becomes the only practical airline for Hawaii travel, and American finds its premium footing, then Kirby’s list of winners may need a serious revision. But it’s going to take more than a few good flights to prove him entirely wrong. What’s your take?
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Scott Kirby is a “gasbag!’
Hawaiian is a consistant money loser. It’s not going to be suddenly profitable just because Alaska bought it. Its customer service in legendary, and not in à good way. Many locals in Hawai’i only fly Hawaiian as a last report
I have a feeling Alaska is going to be on shaky financial ground in a couple years, they have no idea what their in for try to compete against Delta. Delta is able to afford to take losses just to undercut Alaska on long haul routes out of Seattle. Alaska can’t afford that. Delta’s free Amex is one of the only free American Expresses that doesn’t charge foreign transaction fees and Tons of people want and Amex. No one wants to do business with Bank of America.
Bank America is awful.
As a million miler with UA, I say with all due respect that Kirby needs to curb his bluster and enthusiasm a bit. Yes, United has had a long significant presence in Hawaii since 1947. Yes, UA has a huge fleet and route network. But even though they have improved their premium services, they’re economy experience is mediocre at best on their Hawaii bound flights. Actually UA point to point mainland service is superior to their Hawaii in-flight service in all classes. I agree with David E that AA is better at the present time. I’m booked on AA to Kauai for October, and first class was significantly less than UA, DL, AS, or HA.
My experience with AA in January of this year on AA to Hawaii was better than UA on the return to the mainland. A little humility on Kirby’s part is needed. Quite frankly none of our US airlines are doing an outstanding job with in-flight service when compared to a Singapore or Emirates, sad to say.
Don’t hold your breath… People with such oversized egos would hardly ‘reform’ …
Too bad he doesn’t redirect that energy into running UA as the company could be improved in so many ways… But this behavior is much easier to ‘accomplish’…
Don’t know the full effect of the Hawaiian/Alaska merger yet but I think the United CEO is uninformed about the loyalty of Alaska fliers. Having lived in the PNW, Alaska was the clear choice of lots of fliers, and I have rarely been on a less than full Alaska flight-including to Hawaii. Alaska appeared able to drive out United and even SW out of some of their markets. Having dealt with lots of Alaska staff and United staff, the differences have been heavily against United as well. I wonder if the survival of the Alaska/Hawaiian merger may at least partly hinge on how they manage that very difficult HI interisland market-where the planes are ancient, with the need for ongoing maintenance probably difficult given very high takeoff/landing cycles, the planes’ replacements likely pretty pricey, and the users expectations of cab or bus fare rather than flight costs.
Alaska seems to be going in the wrong direction. For example, they have discontinued Hawaiian’s direct Portland flight to Maui, requiring you to lay over in Honolulu. Instead, there are Alaska flights, without the meal service and other perks formerly found on the Hawaiian flights. Alaska seems focused on cost reduction; the flyer be damned. That’s unfortunate for Hawaii and the final vestiges of Hawaii’s state carrier.
No such thing as a free meal service.
Going to Hawaii from Portland, OR, Alaska Airlines is the only carrier that still has a non-stop flight to Maui. That was my only problem when Alaska took over Hawaiian. They both had non-stops and gave me a choice between the two based on times departing and arriving. Hawaiian no longer has that flight. Hoping Alaska can keep it going.
It’s no longer a Hawaiian flight. Those only go through Honolulu. Hawaiian air seems to be fading fast as a brand.
It seems like Hawaiian vacationers are being discounted. Obviously Kirby is bias. Even as a former Delta stewardess I prefer Hawaiian Airlines. There was covid, the hotel strikes, but people still love to come to Hawaii.
Who ever flies wide bodies with premium economy seats, gets my business.
Meals? Mystery meat at 35,000 feet? No thanks, I’ll pack my own picnic in the sky!
Save money for the destination, don’t waste it on the journey.
If the middle class is bumped out of Hawaii’s market and the low income class can’t afford it at all, Who’s left? The rich. It really depends on how many private and business leer jets fly in and out of Hawaii? I don’t see commercial airlines being able to manage with an aircraft one third full per flight. If the rich want luxury then why not hire a private jet if you really are in the market for comfort and service? Hawaii prices control the tourists also so if it gets way more expensive then maybe just one or two commercial airlines will survive. If all tourist’s feel like they have been milked. Probably none. All depends on where the ticket prices are headed.
Kirby needs to get a grip @united is a far less superior carrier than @americanair out of 4 flights lately everyone was late and it had a mechanical issue he needs to cleanup his own house before throwing stones at others and who wants to fly on a vintage 757 767 across the pacific??
Yeah and a bunch of Ivy League economists predicted skyrocketing inflation and a recession.
Instead we have lower unemployment, higher real wages, steady inflation and no recession. Also a record S&P.
Nobody has a clue. Least of all the CEO.
Your theory seems to me to be like a somewhat decent restaurant with a big ad budget that relies on high paying tourists and neglects the main base of local support.
… and fails the health department inspection(s) (assuming this is not a Hawaiian restaurant !) …. lol
Get back to us à year from now when your 401k is a 201k