Spiraling COVID. Who’s To Blame? Here Is What’s Next.

Residents want to associate Hawaii’s currently dismal Covid situation with tourists, and visitors assert they should not be blamed. This subject continues to come up with “blame” mentioned in hundreds of recent comments. So what is the truth about the current explosion of Covid cases in Hawaii?

According to Lt. Governor Josh Green, an emergency room physician, 95% of those hospitalized in Hawaii with COVID were not vaccinated. Green said on his Facebook page, “I’m strongly advising the Governor and leadership team to take immediate action and add meaningful measures (including decreasing gathering sizes and enhancing vaccination efforts) to stop the spread of the Delta variant. Our hospitals are rapidly reaching capacity, as I witnessed firsthand while on call this weekend. We need to really lower our case counts now through Labor Day; otherwise, there will be an unnecessary and tragic loss of life.”

Governor Ige responded today that an announcement on additional restrictions could come later this week. “We need to take further action” he said.

Nothing about travel has been mentioned, at least not yet.

Data from the Hawaii Department of Health

Since March 2021, the state’s Covid data indicates only 2% of all cases are related to non-residents’ travel. That according to the Hawaii Department of Health. That percentage is not changing, and even for the first week of August, it remains pegged at 2%.

On the other hand, Hawaii Covid cases associated with residents traveling have averaged 9% since March, and so far this month, the number has been 10%.

Thus the Department of Health states that residents are responsible for 80% of all Covid cases, and visitors are responsible for 20%.

Community spread – exactly what does that mean?

The more troubling number is the percentage of community cases, currently at 88% and that number was even higher in the preceding months. So we went looking for just what community spread in this context means. The CDC says, “Community spread means people have been infected with the virus in an area, including some who are not sure how or where they became infected.”

We reached out to the Hawaii Department of Health for this article, but they are beyond busy. Thus we were not able to reach anyone, which is a first. Are the 88% community-related still indirectly related to travel, wherein the person infected and listed as community-acquired did not travel but that someone else did who brought the virus with them? We can’t say, but that seems likely.

Most recent data and messaging from Kauai may indicate the next steps.

It was also interesting to note that on Kauai, there were 12 new cases yesterday. Of those, there were 5 children and 7 adults. All of those were related to mainland travel. Health Department head Janet Berreman said, “We are still seeing many cases in people who have recently traveled. Masks, vaccination, and testing continue to be our most effective tools for slowing the spread of the delta variant. If you must travel, please be vaccinated before you go, and wear a mask in crowded indoor settings. Finally, please get tested three to five days after you return to Kaua‘i.” The last sentence, in fact, may indicate that the next step is to require visitors to be testing after traveling.

Post-travel testing is widely available.

For those returning to Hawaii or those visiting Hawaii, Covid testing, post-travel, now has widespread availability at primary-care physicians, urgent care, hospitals, and other locations. For more details and to see testing sites by island, visit the Health Department website.

Pre-travel testing for all?

We continue to believe that unless the current situation abates suddenly and unexpectedly, Hawaii will re-implement its prior 72-hour testing for all arriving travelers without regard to vaccination status.

Hawaii Covid cases since March 2021.

And in your comments.

Here are just a few of the things you’ve said on this subject:

Bobby: “You always want to blame the tourists for all your problems. Covid cases are currently only 2% travel associated (non resident).”

Richard: “Do not blame the locals anymore please!!!. We had the lowest Corona outbreaks in the county before they opened tourism back up.”

Paul: “Yeah Millions of visitors showing up has nothing to do with it. Blame the locals. Wow.”

Paul G: “They should have kept the testing in place. That would prove it isn’t the tourists spreading covid and no one to blame except the unvaccinated and untested being the ones that are spreading the virus.”

Please add your thoughts!