The low number of Hawaii Covid cases had been enviable throughout the epidemic. Until now. The House Committee on Covid met yesterday and was informed that the state has gone from being at or near the bottom to higher than 23 mainland states in its Covid positivity rate. That according to John Hopkins Coronavirus Research Center.
Who is to blame for the reversal in cases?
Everything we’ve seen points in the direction of Hawaii residents spreading the virus through gatherings, among other things. Yesterday, state officials and others, asked the public to return to mask-wearing, and social distancing, so that the state does not need to enforce further action to stop the spread.
Furthermore, most new cases are said to be among Hawaii residents and are often associated with residents returning home from travel with resulting community spread. That, rather than being a result of tourist arrivals. It appears far less likely for tourists, many of whom are vaccinated, to be in as close contact with residents compared with those who live here and are returning. Las Vegas, ultra-popular among Hawaii residents, has been considered one breeding ground of Hawaii infections.
We thought things were going well here in Hawaii until suddenly they weren’t.
Since this epidemic began last year, Hawaii has been blessed with numbers low enough that many of us felt largely outside the scope of problems the mainland was facing. In fact, the State’s House Committee, too, had taken a relaxed approach and had not even met for 5 months, with problems seemingly in check. Now, however, things have changed.
In spite of this, for the moment, Hawaii travel roars on.
Currently, the state has not indicated any further changes planned that might impact tourism. And, visitors from the US mainland are still arriving in record numbers, as seen in the latest image below.
Hawaii’s concerns are multifaceted.
Hawaii first is worried about its limited medical capacity. That is very real, especially outside of Honolulu. And even in Honolulu, with most of the state’s resources, hospitalizations have gone up significantly in just the past few weeks.
The state, too, is concerned that any Covid policies and procedures changes could impact its still-fragile economy and the all-important Hawaii tourism engine. Senate chair Saiki said that already, “People are concerned we’re going to revert.”
Hawaii hospitals under pressure.
The limited island medical facilities are strained due to inadequate staffing of doctors and nurses and increased caseloads. Some hospitals are again postponing elective surgeries. Lt. Gov. Josh Green said, “The best way, of course, to deal with this hospital surge is to not have it.” He added, ” there’ll be a lot of discussions to bring the heat down in coming weeks.” Green would like to see a new reduced limit on the size of gatherings implemented.
As a regular BOH commenter, David pointed out, “Lack of medical professionals in Hawaii, especially outside of Oahu/ Honolulu, is nothing new. Multiple reasons. Difficult state licensing requirements may be one of them, but also the cost of living versus pay rates and isolation from other professionals (few colleagues to consult with)… OK, there is no good place to have a heart attack, but if you are going to have one, get back to the mainland first. Serious trauma injuries (e.g., vehicle crashes of which we have plenty) get flown to Honolulu as a matter of routine.”
Are you less inclined to visit Hawaii now with COIVD numbers on the rise?
Hawaii state government and the fools that elect them will still blame tourism for all the islands woes! Notice there is demographic data on who is infected. And furthermore, positivity is mostly an non issue without relevant hospitalization and death statistics.
I follow this blog all the time. It’s great. BUT… I can’t believe in the entire article you didn’t address the obvious reason – vaccinations! The lack of vaccination of Hawaii residents combined with the highly contagious Delta variant is a recipe for disaster. Masks and social distancing are good, but vaccination is the Island’s best defense. Your article doesn’t mention it, but I suspect the vast majority of the hospitalized cases are among unvaccinated residents. Hawaii had the chance – the perfect opportunity since you had low COVID rates while the mainland was getting hammered – to lead the way by following shut down with high vaccination rates, but blew it. So sad.
The CDC has documented an IFR (Infection Fatality Ratio) for Covid of 0.26%. That means 99.7% of people who get infected will be ok.
With a survival rate like that, case counts are irrelevant. Covid is an inconvenient seasonal flu, nothing more. In 2018 Hawaii had 834 deaths from influenza, but there was no travel ban, limitations on gatherings, mask mandates, etc. How is it that there is so much concern over Covid when there was none for influenza, a demonstrably more deadly virus, at least in Hawaii’s case?
Excellent commentary with pertinent facts. Thank you Andrew!
Same as San Francisco during the Spanish flu Pandemic. Rounds 1,2 they had low numbers because they followed the guidelines
However when the 3 wave hit they were not.They Stop following the safety measures. Bad press or what ever. The citizens of SF where hit with very high numbers.
Something like now, the numbers are up going up, our state still opens the state for business.
Speaking of San Fran..
How is the most masked up and vaccinated large city……having a Covid Spike, reinstating mandates, and still scared?
Weird huh?
yeah, weird that they are proving everything being propagated as truth to be wrong. 🤔
Florida is now the national leader in Covid deaths. Most of those infected are reportedly in the 20 to 40 year old range. Hospitals are overwhelmed,and the Governor won’t mandate masks.
Texas is bringing in out of State nurses. Hospitals are overwhelmed, and the Governor won’t mandate masks.
I’m glad to see that Hawaii, as well as other responsible leaders in many States are working to protect their residents, by mandates to keep the number of infections lower.
The Vaccine exception to travel is useless and causing more spread. My Chiropractor and her two friends were all vaccinated and still caught COVID 3 weeks ago. My Aunty and Uncle were vaccinated and are positive right now. The vaccines do a good job at minimizing the affect of the virus, but it’s not preventing infection. Allowing travelers into the state without verifying negative results is what is causing the virus to spread. Require negative tests for all.
My wife & I have spent the months of summer & fall in Waikiki and Maui for years, but that ended abruptly in 2020, and I would not consider returning regularly– It was wonderful when we thought of it as the rhythm of our lives to spend almost half a year in such a culture, but its danger of disease is a mirror image of what native Hawai’ians unknowingly absorbed when Anglo-Europeans found the Sandwich Is. and infected them.
We have canceled our September visit. Our concern – medical care if we get sick. Note: we are fully vaccinated. The risks are are not worth it. Also reports of ‘crowds’ to many tourists – distracts from all the reasons we go to Hawaii.
There is always tomorrow. Aloha
Do not blame the locals anymore please!!!. We had the lowest Corona outbreaks in the county before they opened tourism back up.
You are spreading false information about our sensitive Island Community.
I honestly do NOT believe there’s no relationship between 35k incoming TRAVELERS PER DAY with the rise of Covid especially when many residents interface with the tourists 40+ hrs a week especially since many work in the tourists industry.
(Deleted – see comment rules)… and not be soooo Greedy on the Tourist Dollar.
35k (Deleted) per day x 5 days = 175k more people that’s compromising the health of HAWAII
H. E. L. L. O. ? !
The people have been lied to from the very beginning concerning everything about this virus, why should we start believing the government or the media now. I suggest to everyone to unplug from the Matrix while you still can!
So nothing was done to increase medical capacity over the last 18 months?? Maybe fewer atv purchases and police OT hours.. outrageous..
Dr Pang told Maui schoolboard on a zoom meeting Monday night, that the new Lambda Varient is vaccine resistant!! It’s in So. America now. Why aren’t you telling people about LAMBDA?? He said getting another shot of the current vaccines will NOT help because of this resistance. Is this why CDC is not reconmmending boosters?
He also said it’s errorous to say our outbreak is from community transmission because we are NOT testing tourists. We MUST return testing and quarantine for travelers to Hawai’i.
He also said he told the Governor to hold off opening schools for 3 weeks,
The hysteria and fear is setting in among those who aren’t well educated on this topic…😲
Whats driving these unbelievable infection rates is 2 things,
First it’s the residents who refuse to get vaccinated travelling off Island and returning home and spreading the virus amongst all their close contacts. Second is the State and County policy allowing returning infected residents who aren’t vaccinated,have no proof of a negative test and refuse to be tested upon arrival to be allowed to quarantine at home and then infect entire households who aren’t quarantined and are free to then spread it wvwryqhere they go. Make returning residents with no proof of a vaccination or negative test quarantine in a designated quarantine location
Please do your research with the residents…the cases were lower with out the tourists.
The surge is all across the country. Cases were lower before DELTA. California had one of the lowest rates in the country before DELTA hit. You guys like to blame the tourists for everything.
Conspiracy theories in 2020:
Vaccine Passports
Vaccinated to eat in restaurants
vaccine mandates
Wuhan Lab leak
Realities in 2021:
Vaccine Passports
restaraunt Passports
DOE mandates for athletes
Wuhan lab leak
What type of mask actually works?
How many feet of distancing?
Do we need to wipe surfaces?
Do you need a booster less than 7 months later?
My 99.7% covid mortality rate increases to what with a mandatory vaccine? 99.8%?
Aloha BoH – yes, we’re coming to Maui in Sept – we’re thankful that our place is on the water so we’ll swim & snorkel; is close to a grocery store & we love to cook, so cooking from “home” will suit us just fine, and got a good deal on a car rental for those long drives we like to take. What we probably won’t be doing is dining out, going on excursions or going out to listen to live music – we hope we can pick up where we left off when we come back in Feb. we sure miss our islands. 🌺💝
I’ve said since day one, that if Covid ever got a foothold on this island it would take off like wildfire.
Families here meet in large multi-family, multi-age groups. People hug and KISS, share food, laughs, all unmasked.
While I love the culture of ohana, it will be a danger unless vaccinations AND masking increase.
Thank you for attempting to protect our island family.
Given our cautious approach throughout, due to our limited medical resources and ability to “raise the drawbridge” and pretty tightly control who comes here, I will not be surprised at all if restrictions are tightened a little, and strong suggestions are made to voluntarily take extra precautions, regardless of who is spreading it and where they are coming from. If the majority of the spread in Hawaii is not coming from tourists, great, that shows the travel restrictions are working, and there’s no reason not to continue. If that then means that the majority of the spread is amongst the locals, then further education is needed, and possibly a return to limits on gathering sizes. If there are indeed a lot of locals bringing it back from Las Vegas, or wherever, and they don’t submit a negative test or proof of vaccination and are required to quarantine, maybe they shouldn’t be allowed to quarantine at home. Nobody can honestly believe that if part (or all) of a household is required to quarantine at home that they will change their normal behavior even a little bit. They will continue to hang out with family and friends. Quarantine ’em in a hotel. If they are traveling to Las Vegas unvaccinated then we can freely question their intelligence, and they can go and gamble all they want, but they shouldn’t be allowed to gamble with our health when they get back.
Your exactly right about not allowing unvaccinated non tested reaidents to quarantine at home.
Quarantine facilities are the only way to stop the spread
It’s not hard to test those people, without a pre-flight negative test, right off the plane with a 15-20 minute test and determine if they are covid positive. Big Island did it for months. You also you can’t justify forcing people to stay somewhere other than their home, with a 99.8% death rate that is comparable to the annual flu (of the past)…apparently that has disappeared since covid arrived though. 🤔
Fortunately you don’t get to throw people in jail for 10 days…errr quarantine them outside their home. I sure am glad you don’t represent the people of Hawaii in Government.