There is much uncertainty when Hawaii’s travel-based economy will be normal again. This in spite of the Safe Travels testing program. Issues include unknowns about how soon vaccines will be widely delivered and whether they will be effective in all instances. Also, how will financial woes on the mainland impede Hawaii’s travel recovery? And lastly, the public relations to create that Aloha feeling again.
Yesterday, the University of Hawaii reported that job losses were worse here in the past year than in any other state. We honestly didn’t need the economists to tell us that, it is obvious. In relatively better news, however, Hawaii economists reported to lawmakers that first-time unemployment claims have finally stabilized.
So what does that say about 2021?
If you believe state economists, indications are for a return to near-2019 levels by the end of this year. Really? We’re not sure. At the Senate Ways and Means Committee, it was reported that tourism could return to between 50% and 80% of normal, which would mean in the range of 5 million to 8 million visitors. The state still expects that it will still take until at least 2024 to return to where we left off in 2019.
Last month, Hawaii saw fewer than 30% of the prior December’s visitor count.
50-80% of 2020 figures is far more likely. 2020 started out normal for the first few months. 2021 won’t start out as well as 2020. And at the rate the vaccines are being administered (slow walked) it is clear that most people won’t be vaccinated until the end of 2021. Maui Mayor Victorino is considering another stay safer at home order which will shut down bars and dining in at restaurants. This will further discourage tourists. And Kauai is much more restrictive now than through most of last year so tourists won’t be going there any time soon. It is possible that vaccines get rolled out much faster as the year goes on snd tourists are allowed to bypass the pre flight tests by showing they were vaccinated. That would help tourism tremendously. But as of now that won’t help much because hardly anyone has been vaccinated.
Any news yet about the second test Hawaii was considering requiring 4-5 days after arrival?
Hi Lee.
It seems that the governor has decided to wait on any further changes to Safe Travels. That’s all we know for the moment.
Aloha.
Has there been any word yet on Hawaii allowing people who have had the vaccine doses being able to come to Hawaii with no restrictions?
I don’t see it getting anywhere near those numbers in 2021. You might get 50-80% in 2022 but I don’t know anyone that’s planning Hawaii trips this year until things calm down, cities open back up and no mask requirement at the hotels/resorts. Everywhere us seeing spikes everywhere, it’s just a matter of time before Hawai’i shuts down again.
I believe that’s an overly optimistic projection from the state’s economists. My dad used to refer to this kind of optimism as “Whistling past the graveyard”.
You need large amounts of disposable income to visit Hawaii as we are all aware. The economy has been rocked by the pandemic nationwide and disposable income is in very short supply. I think most folks are going to be focusing on catching up with mortgage / rent payments, paying credit card bills, making car payments and otherwise trying to recover from the economic trauma of 2020. Travel, much less travel to Hawaii isn’t even on most people’s radar at this point.
Additionally, confusion surrounding the Safe Travels program and the constant movement of the goal posts, many people gave up on Hawaii and found vacation alternatives in Mexico and the Caribbean. Much cheaper alternatives. I don’t see a recovery to 2019 levels for at least a few years.