Updated 4/1/20. As you are all too well aware, travel to Hawaii is on hold for now. While the State of Hawaii has restrictions in place through April 30, Hawaiian Airlines has indicated a differing point of view. That, as they have cancelled virtually all flights except for essential service, through May 20.
Also see Analysis of Hawaii Airline Competition Before and After 2020.
Beat of Hawaii: We’ll go out on a limb and say that neither one of those is probably right, so read on for what our crystal ball is indicating. Furthermore, when Hawaii travel resumes, get ready for what may be somewhat of a roller coaster ride. Lastly, see our updated strategies for when to buy travel to Hawaii after tourism resume.
Time frame: When Hawaii air travel will resume.
We don’t claim to have more knowledge than the state or than our bellwether airline. But we are researchers by nature, and we’ve gone to some lengths to investigate this. According to multiple sources including the University of Washington, it may take a few weeks longer than the mainland for it to be safe for Hawaii travel to resume. It is projected that the East Coast will see improvements before the West Coast and then Hawaii would be after that. But the good news is that travel could be back in June to July, and who knows, it still might be earlier.
What will the cost of Hawaii airfare be?
We anticipate very aggressive pricing not only for Hawaii travel, but globally, when travel restrictions are finally relaxed. That as airlines regroup and restart operations. That having been said there will be long term ramifications for Hawaii air travel, so read on for those.
Will airfares drop below $100 each way?
Yes, definitely. To bring people back to Hawaii travel, we are anticipating the lowest fares ever seen, at least to start. In the short term, we expect airfares may start in the range of $79-$99 each way from the west coast and just over double that from more distant cities, including the east coast. Those fares will be for travel through fall 2020.
For travel at high season, including Thanksgiving, Christmas, and thereafter, prices should remain competitively low. That assumes that all three Hawaii-centric airlines continue to operate here as they have been doing, which is what we expect. Thus, high season Hawaii airfares may be starting in the $175+ each way range, from the west coast.
Expect big changes including Hawaii airline industry consolidation.
Big changes are ahead for Hawaii air travel in the mid to long term. It is clear, and is being widely reported, that the U.S. airline industry will be consolidating and contracting, with less competition, perhaps new regulation, and more.
While this may not occur even this year, we also expect the cost of travel to Hawaii to rise over time. In fact the cost of all air travel is subject to the same circumstances and will be going up.
U.S. airlines and the US Dept. of Transportation may still temporarily ground all flights before it is said and done. They will also be looking at strategies including a temporary (or perhaps longer term) consolidation of air service, as is needed to help cut airline losses. What that could look like here is that airlines would sell seats on each other’s flights. So you’ll still have a flight, for example, from San Jose to Maui. But, it isn’t out of the question that no matter whose aircraft is actually flying, Southwest, Alaska, Hawaiian (and others) might all sell seats on that exact same flight.
This won’t happen overnight and, if it does happen, will require complex negotiations between government and airlines, including cost-sharing and scheduling. But when it happens, and we’re quite certain that it will, you won’t see any more $99 airfares. Instead that could cause airfares from the west coast to rise over time to at least double or more, for low season flights to Hawaii.
On Friday, Southwest CEO Gary Kelly said, “I can assure you, we’re losing money on every single flight, and big money, so that can’t be sustained indefinitely,”
Buying strategies for cheap flights to Hawaii WHEN Hawaii air travel resumes.
Good news here is that airlines have moved to helping passengers more at this time. For example, see Hawaiian Airlines Now Offers Refund Option on Tickets. Therefore, if you are buying for travel starting when flights resume, you should be protected by refund options in the event anything does change.
We are inclined to suggest buying sooner rather than later following resumption of flights, inasmuch as we expect to see the best prices soon thereafter.
As always, we look forward to and appreciate your input.
Photo from Maui Kai at Kaanapali Beach.
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When do you think Hawaii will resume non-essential travel for tourists? Would it be safe to book a vacation to Hawaii in June’s?
Thank you in advance for your response.
Hi April.
We addressed that today. July would probably be safer, but we are all waiting a plan. Look forward to sharing more soon.
Aloha.
My daughter is getting married on July 12,2020 and I wanted to see your thoughts about Maui reopening. We don’t want to cancel Our flights for I want to believe all will be good.
Hi!
My family and 2 other families have been planning a trip to Maui at the end of July for over a year. We just recieved an email that our Air B and B we had booked for all of us to stay in has been cancelled at the owners request.
Do you have any recommendations for hotels on Maui that allow free cancellations (up until the standard 1 week before) that are family friendly? We are now scrambling and hoping we will be able to still take this trip, but realistic that it may not happen. Thank you!!
Hi Linsay.
We do not have recommendations. Suggest referring to online guidebooks or checking with hotels directly on that.
Aloha.
Ok,
My daughter is scheduled to be married on Kaui in October ( the 10th to be exact ). Airline tickets Hotel and photographer have all been paid Can you please give me your best guess if this will happen. We don’t want to cancel unless we absolutely have to, we’re in Tennessee. We want to respect the locals and wish them well
Mahalo,
Gary B.
Hi Gary.
Good that you have some time. As we’ve said to others, suggest waiting until we get into May, at which point there should be much more clarity. Since you’re asking for our guess, we’d guess yes it will happen, but check back soon.
Aloha.
Hi Guys- Would you please let me know if my understanding of what you have written is correct? It sounds like it will probably be cost-prohibitive to fly to Hawaii next year, and that scheduling a flight at a convenient day and time will be difficult (we fly from Oakland to Maui).
If so, we are not sure that we should take the risk of re-booking our time share, etc. only to find out we can’t afford the airfare or find a flight that will match the accommodations time frame (we had hoped to reschedule our trip to May 2021).
Mahalo for always providing up-to-date information. Hope you are both feeling well.
Hi Debi.
It is too soon to know how next year will play out. We see a direction unfolding more than the time frame. We’ll be staying on top of it so look for more on that quite soon. Thank you for all of your comments over the past five years!
Aloha.
What about locals that travel to LAS, will we increase or decrease in air fare?
In previous messages you had mentioned that Southwest would be opening flights to Hawaii from Salt Lake, will they still try and get those flights and if so do you have an idea of when?
Aloha,
Our vacation to Kauai and Oahu was scheduled for May 15-June 1.
Our flights have not been cancelled, but we think we should reschedule it.
We are thinking about changing our flights to July 17-Aug 1.
If we change our flights now, and closer to July things are not much better, would we be able to make another change for a later date?
Thank you,
Cathy
Hi Cathy.
It depends on the airline’s rules. Many are offering unlimited changes within a time period. On the other hand, you may have more leverage if you wait to be cancelled, since you will have the DOT refund rules behind you.
Aloha.
Thank you for your response.
We are flying out on Southwest and returning on Hawaiian Airlines.
Do you know if those airlines have unlimited changes?
I don’t know if I can wait until the airline cancels because I need to cancel my VBRO rentals in 2 weeks in order to get a full refund.
Thanks again!
Hi Cathy.
Our read is that they both do at this time.
Aloha.
Our flights are on May 15 and May 22 to and from LAX on Hawaiian. They would not let me cancel.
Aloha! We are from Canada and heartbroken at cancelling our first trip to Maui. We want to rebook at the end of September to early October, or mid to end April 2021, for 10 to 12 days. My husband is worried we wo t be able to travel to Hawaii by the late fall. Any thoughts?
Hi Cynthia.
There’s nothing more we can add to what we have already said. Please check back with us as we learn more.
Aloha.
No one knows what is going to happen. Hawai’i is closed and may remain closed for the foreseeable future.
I think this article is seriously jumping the gun, so to speak. STAY where you are, as experts are predicting “waves” for at least the rest of this year.
Hawai’i simply does not have the resources to deal with the burden of tourists at this time.
Mālama pono. The Governor has prohibited the promotion of tourism in Hawai’i at this time. Please stop.
Thank you Candi for getting the correct message out. The New York Times reports (April 25th) that the Governor has extended the shutdown until May 31st. He is frustrated that there are still about 100 visitors arriving every day in Honolulu. Many can’t afford to be locked up in their hotel room and order in food for 14 days. Locals are upset with some tourists who break the quar antine. The State is even sending some tourists back to the mainland and paying the airfare. So sad to see people not respecting Hawaii and slowing down the recovery.
Can’t believe what I’m reading here. We have travelled many times to Hawaii from Canada and love it. If anybody is telling you anything is going back to normal any time soon they are lying to you. You should maybe check on non US news feeds about what is happening in your country. BBC NEWS or CBC or somewhere. Your politicians have seriously let you down. Nobody will come to US for a long time.
Why would you believe the BBC who isnt in the US?
Peter W.
I find your comments strange. Where do you get your facts?
The news sources in the US are know to be highly flawed.
Now that April Fool’s Day is past, can we now believe everything on the internet is accurate?
Aloha! My friend has a flight from Brazil to Maui, May 23th, he was coming to stay with me for 2 weeks. He decided to wait and see if it will still be an option to come on this period, keeps asking what I think but I honestly don’t know what to say. He wouldn’t be able to come another time of the year and that’s why is hard for him to cancel. Tough spot, I understand the crisis and magnitude of the problem just honestly don’t know if we are going to be on a better spot by then or not.
Thank you for all the information and help you are providing. Mahalo!
Hi Lara.
Thank you.
Aloha.
Would like to know when things open up so l can book a trip.
I live in Ireland, and have travelled to Oahu over 20 times, mostly in September. I bought tickets before Christmas for September 2021. Should I be considering cancelling?
Thanks.
John.
Hi John.
It is too early to say. Based on what we are hearing, no.
Aloha.
We visit Kauai each year and are very aware that, really, Kauai, and probably other islands, has suffered from too many visitors! Some of our favorite spots now limit the number of visitors allowed. Seems like maybe this is a good time for Hawaii to plan for the future and get some controls in place.
We already have airfare & hotel booked for June 17-24. Our whole family is going with us for our 50th wedding anniversary. I’m holding out hope we can still go, but how realistic are my hopes?
We have Alaska flights to Kona on April 6th. Do you think they will eventually do the same thing as Hawaiian as far as a refund, or are they going to stick to just crediting my account? I’m actually surprised they haven’t cancelled the flight altogether, but I just got notification that it was changed the other day, so for right now, I’m stuck with just the credit.
Mahalo
Hi Dan.
Have you tried calling them? Suggest you keep asking for a refund.
Yes, we too are wondering if that won’t be cancelled, and suspect it will be.
Aloha.
My tickets have been canceled for april..please kept me informed as soon you will star booking..thank you
Hi Jeanette.
If you subscribe to our emails, you’ll be the first to get news of sales once travel resumes.
Aloha.
Thank you for your regular updates. We are so disappointed that we are not heading out the door to our plane and onto Hawaii for 10 days starting May 1st. 🙁 We look forward to when things clear up coming to see you all! Hugs from the west coast. Be safe and smart!
Hi Paul.
Hawaii looks forward to your return when possible.
Aloha.
I was thinking of visiting Maui in late October. When would be the best time to look at fares from the New York area? Would frequent flyer miles be affected by the situation?
Thank you,
Joe
Hi Joe.
Stay tuned with us as we get through this and things turn around. It will be clear when to start booking, but best guess is in June.
Aloha.
Thank you for the information that all of you have provided. I was planning on moving back to Oahu from Denver Colorado this April. Obviously it doesn’t seem likely. Should I still try and book a flight for April or May and take my chances??? I am very anxious to come home and hope there us a cure for this nasty vi rus. I am praying for the nation to have patience during this tough time!!!! Aloha and mahalo…Mr Michael..
Hi Michael.
If you decide to return now, you’ll be going into the 14 days of mandatory isolation. Otherwise, it is up to you when you come back.
Aloha.
I have a Son, Daughter-in-Law, grandson coming July 4th from Cleveland to Hilo. Do they wait until the airlines cancel their flights before they do anything? Please advise.
Hi Daniel.
We don’t have reason to think that will be cancelled at this time. Stay tuned as it gets closer.
Aloha.
My husband and I had a great time in HI. Returned two weeks before everything shut down and our hotel closed. Looking forward to another trip back next year to Paradise!!!
Hello,
We are very disappointed with Alaska. We live in Europe and booked our Easter trip to Hawaii in August. As non US citizen, we are banned to fly into the US. Alaska that flies in the US only offers a voucher valid for one year FROM THE DATE OF BOOKING, meaning for us that we have to fly Alaska so come to the US before end of August ! Our outbound with British Airlines and Swiss offers a voucher valid for one year from the date of travel.
We’ll loose our Alaska tickets and from now on will do our best to not use that company – thanks for reading
Hi Valerie.
Thank you.
Aloha.
I don’t think that people will fly as long as they can possibly get it…. Unless they have to. Probably not a full recovery until a vac cine comes out or it magically disappears. That is for the cruise ships as well.
Thanks for your coverage. I live on the north shore and love your stories. You have a very positive way about you. Mahalo
Hi Haena.
Thank you!
Aloha.
If I buy a ticket now for the summer and there are still travel restrictions, I know the airlines will waive the change fee. Will they still charge a fare difference if there is one? For Thanksgiving, do you recommend purchasing a ticket now or when travel restrictions are lifted? Mahalo!
Hi Staci.
Check prices for Thanksgiving now and if the price is right, then buy. Or wait, but not long after flights are on again.
You didn’t say where you are travelling from and to, so we can’t look specifically. We can’t say what future fare rules will be, but they have been getting more flexible rather than more restrictive of late.
Aloha.
I have been trying to subscribe to your email and have filled in all the boxes but never recieve it. It is being forwarded to me by someone. Please add me to your list. Thanks.
Hi Donna.
Done. There was no indication of you ever trying, so not sure what happened.
Alohs.
How about Hotel and condo rentals. That’s the biggest cost will be where to stay in Hawaii. Do you anticipate deals for hotels also!?
I imagine some very angry locals if the goverment opens tourism in June. I am hesitant to even book my July trip out there.
Given the current circumstance, for a date like Sat, Jan 2, 2021: When do you suspect will be the ideal timing for best price to book a return flight from Maui OGG back to the East coast MIA/FLL ? Please and thanks!
Hi Rich.
That is the prime Saturday of holidays. So looks very expensive at the moment. Might come down from $1,300 (for Sat. departure and return). If you can adjust by a couple of days, far is 50% less, and that’s a good price.
Aloha.
And folks thought “major changes” were coming after 9/11 ?? And changes did come, as we’ve all seen …
I still believe this is going to change a LOT in our Country … both culturally and economically. Just like 9/11 …
Disclaimer: I was the Captain and flew the first flight out of HNL to Tokyo on a NWA 747 after the FAA green-lighted flying post 9/11, so I’ve seen a little of this “coming change” and disruption firsthand from an operational standpoint.
We’re in this together … that’s the most important thing to take away, IMO.
I would just like to see them flying again as we go every year from Australia can’t wait to land in Honolulu hi once more we were to fly out on 17th March but have rebooked for 11th aug
Personally I’d like to see some social distancing on planes in the near term.
You cannot do that and make money. Flying isn’t free, nor is it cheap.
Thanks again for all your “research brain” work! 🙂 A friend and I have plans to visit our favorite island, Kauai, from June 6-13. I know NO ONE has a magic ball during this health crisis, but whayya think — do you think the state of Hawaii will be allowing visitors back by then? (Without being quar antined in our condo for the whole week)
Hi Debbie.
Thank you. We don’t know any more than we just published. Best thought would be to check back in a month and we might know more. If you already have flights, then you won’t want to do anything now anyway. It is when airlines cancel that you have options that include a refund.
Aloha.
We had reservations for Kauai June11-July5-cancelled them. Even if things are back to “normal “ it is too soon. We come every year & was disappointed to cancel but it was for the best. The owner we dealt with was great!
Don’t forget that with the continuing drop in oil prices the cost of aviation fuel will also be going down. Airlines will be able to buy and lock in some of the lowest prices in a very long time. This should also keep prices down when airlines resume their flights.
If that happens — and it has occasionally in the past — it would be GREAT. But don’t count on it … market fluctuations, commodities, and the politics of oil are insane these days. Probably always have been, it’s just more apparent today …
The biggest “cost” to an airline is labor. Is, was, always will be … and this from the perspective of a former line pilot and management flack.
Hi RDH.
Thanks for all of your comments over the years.
Aloha.
MAHALO
My privilege and pleasure, my Bruddah’