Updated 4/1/20. As you are all too well aware, travel to Hawaii is on hold for now. While the State of Hawaii has restrictions in place through April 30, Hawaiian Airlines has indicated a differing point of view. That, as they have cancelled virtually all flights except for essential service, through May 20.
Also see Analysis of Hawaii Airline Competition Before and After 2020.
Beat of Hawaii: We’ll go out on a limb and say that neither one of those is probably right, so read on for what our crystal ball is indicating. Furthermore, when Hawaii travel resumes, get ready for what may be somewhat of a roller coaster ride. Lastly, see our updated strategies for when to buy travel to Hawaii after tourism resume.
Time frame: When Hawaii air travel will resume.
We don’t claim to have more knowledge than the state or than our bellwether airline. But we are researchers by nature, and we’ve gone to some lengths to investigate this. According to multiple sources including the University of Washington, it may take a few weeks longer than the mainland for it to be safe for Hawaii travel to resume. It is projected that the East Coast will see improvements before the West Coast and then Hawaii would be after that. But the good news is that travel could be back in June to July, and who knows, it still might be earlier.
What will the cost of Hawaii airfare be?
We anticipate very aggressive pricing not only for Hawaii travel, but globally, when travel restrictions are finally relaxed. That as airlines regroup and restart operations. That having been said there will be long term ramifications for Hawaii air travel, so read on for those.
Will airfares drop below $100 each way?
Yes, definitely. To bring people back to Hawaii travel, we are anticipating the lowest fares ever seen, at least to start. In the short term, we expect airfares may start in the range of $79-$99 each way from the west coast and just over double that from more distant cities, including the east coast. Those fares will be for travel through fall 2020.
For travel at high season, including Thanksgiving, Christmas, and thereafter, prices should remain competitively low. That assumes that all three Hawaii-centric airlines continue to operate here as they have been doing, which is what we expect. Thus, high season Hawaii airfares may be starting in the $175+ each way range, from the west coast.
Expect big changes including Hawaii airline industry consolidation.
Big changes are ahead for Hawaii air travel in the mid to long term. It is clear, and is being widely reported, that the U.S. airline industry will be consolidating and contracting, with less competition, perhaps new regulation, and more.
While this may not occur even this year, we also expect the cost of travel to Hawaii to rise over time. In fact the cost of all air travel is subject to the same circumstances and will be going up.
U.S. airlines and the US Dept. of Transportation may still temporarily ground all flights before it is said and done. They will also be looking at strategies including a temporary (or perhaps longer term) consolidation of air service, as is needed to help cut airline losses. What that could look like here is that airlines would sell seats on each other’s flights. So you’ll still have a flight, for example, from San Jose to Maui. But, it isn’t out of the question that no matter whose aircraft is actually flying, Southwest, Alaska, Hawaiian (and others) might all sell seats on that exact same flight.
This won’t happen overnight and, if it does happen, will require complex negotiations between government and airlines, including cost-sharing and scheduling. But when it happens, and we’re quite certain that it will, you won’t see any more $99 airfares. Instead that could cause airfares from the west coast to rise over time to at least double or more, for low season flights to Hawaii.
On Friday, Southwest CEO Gary Kelly said, “I can assure you, we’re losing money on every single flight, and big money, so that can’t be sustained indefinitely,”
Buying strategies for cheap flights to Hawaii WHEN Hawaii air travel resumes.
Good news here is that airlines have moved to helping passengers more at this time. For example, see Hawaiian Airlines Now Offers Refund Option on Tickets. Therefore, if you are buying for travel starting when flights resume, you should be protected by refund options in the event anything does change.
We are inclined to suggest buying sooner rather than later following resumption of flights, inasmuch as we expect to see the best prices soon thereafter.
As always, we look forward to and appreciate your input.
Photo from Maui Kai at Kaanapali Beach.
When do you think Hawaii will resume non-essential travel for tourists? Would it be safe to book a vacation to Hawaii in June’s?
Thank you in advance for your response.
Hi April.
We addressed that today. July would probably be safer, but we are all waiting a plan. Look forward to sharing more soon.
Aloha.
My daughter is getting married on July 12,2020 and I wanted to see your thoughts about Maui reopening. We don’t want to cancel Our flights for I want to believe all will be good.
Hi!
My family and 2 other families have been planning a trip to Maui at the end of July for over a year. We just recieved an email that our Air B and B we had booked for all of us to stay in has been cancelled at the owners request.
Do you have any recommendations for hotels on Maui that allow free cancellations (up until the standard 1 week before) that are family friendly? We are now scrambling and hoping we will be able to still take this trip, but realistic that it may not happen. Thank you!!
Hi Linsay.
We do not have recommendations. Suggest referring to online guidebooks or checking with hotels directly on that.
Aloha.
Ok,
My daughter is scheduled to be married on Kaui in October ( the 10th to be exact ). Airline tickets Hotel and photographer have all been paid Can you please give me your best guess if this will happen. We don’t want to cancel unless we absolutely have to, we’re in Tennessee. We want to respect the locals and wish them well
Mahalo,
Gary B.
Hi Gary.
Good that you have some time. As we’ve said to others, suggest waiting until we get into May, at which point there should be much more clarity. Since you’re asking for our guess, we’d guess yes it will happen, but check back soon.
Aloha.
Hi Guys- Would you please let me know if my understanding of what you have written is correct? It sounds like it will probably be cost-prohibitive to fly to Hawaii next year, and that scheduling a flight at a convenient day and time will be difficult (we fly from Oakland to Maui).
If so, we are not sure that we should take the risk of re-booking our time share, etc. only to find out we can’t afford the airfare or find a flight that will match the accommodations time frame (we had hoped to reschedule our trip to May 2021).
Mahalo for always providing up-to-date information. Hope you are both feeling well.
Hi Debi.
It is too soon to know how next year will play out. We see a direction unfolding more than the time frame. We’ll be staying on top of it so look for more on that quite soon. Thank you for all of your comments over the past five years!
Aloha.
What about locals that travel to LAS, will we increase or decrease in air fare?
In previous messages you had mentioned that Southwest would be opening flights to Hawaii from Salt Lake, will they still try and get those flights and if so do you have an idea of when?
Aloha,
Our vacation to Kauai and Oahu was scheduled for May 15-June 1.
Our flights have not been cancelled, but we think we should reschedule it.
We are thinking about changing our flights to July 17-Aug 1.
If we change our flights now, and closer to July things are not much better, would we be able to make another change for a later date?
Thank you,
Cathy
Hi Cathy.
It depends on the airline’s rules. Many are offering unlimited changes within a time period. On the other hand, you may have more leverage if you wait to be cancelled, since you will have the DOT refund rules behind you.
Aloha.
Thank you for your response.
We are flying out on Southwest and returning on Hawaiian Airlines.
Do you know if those airlines have unlimited changes?
I don’t know if I can wait until the airline cancels because I need to cancel my VBRO rentals in 2 weeks in order to get a full refund.
Thanks again!
Hi Cathy.
Our read is that they both do at this time.
Aloha.
Our flights are on May 15 and May 22 to and from LAX on Hawaiian. They would not let me cancel.
Aloha! We are from Canada and heartbroken at cancelling our first trip to Maui. We want to rebook at the end of September to early October, or mid to end April 2021, for 10 to 12 days. My husband is worried we wo t be able to travel to Hawaii by the late fall. Any thoughts?
Hi Cynthia.
There’s nothing more we can add to what we have already said. Please check back with us as we learn more.
Aloha.
No one knows what is going to happen. Hawai’i is closed and may remain closed for the foreseeable future.
I think this article is seriously jumping the gun, so to speak. STAY where you are, as experts are predicting “waves” for at least the rest of this year.
Hawai’i simply does not have the resources to deal with the burden of tourists at this time.
Mālama pono. The Governor has prohibited the promotion of tourism in Hawai’i at this time. Please stop.
Thank you Candi for getting the correct message out. The New York Times reports (April 25th) that the Governor has extended the shutdown until May 31st. He is frustrated that there are still about 100 visitors arriving every day in Honolulu. Many can’t afford to be locked up in their hotel room and order in food for 14 days. Locals are upset with some tourists who break the quar antine. The State is even sending some tourists back to the mainland and paying the airfare. So sad to see people not respecting Hawaii and slowing down the recovery.
Can’t believe what I’m reading here. We have travelled many times to Hawaii from Canada and love it. If anybody is telling you anything is going back to normal any time soon they are lying to you. You should maybe check on non US news feeds about what is happening in your country. BBC NEWS or CBC or somewhere. Your politicians have seriously let you down. Nobody will come to US for a long time.
Why would you believe the BBC who isnt in the US?
Peter W.
I find your comments strange. Where do you get your facts?
The news sources in the US are know to be highly flawed.
Now that April Fool’s Day is past, can we now believe everything on the internet is accurate?
Aloha! My friend has a flight from Brazil to Maui, May 23th, he was coming to stay with me for 2 weeks. He decided to wait and see if it will still be an option to come on this period, keeps asking what I think but I honestly don’t know what to say. He wouldn’t be able to come another time of the year and that’s why is hard for him to cancel. Tough spot, I understand the crisis and magnitude of the problem just honestly don’t know if we are going to be on a better spot by then or not.
Thank you for all the information and help you are providing. Mahalo!
Hi Lara.
Thank you.
Aloha.
Would like to know when things open up so l can book a trip.