Bellwether Hawaiian Airlines is feeling the heat from Hawaii newcomer Southwest Airlines. The big question is what’s next in Southwest vs. Hawaiian Airlines competition, following short-lived yet eye-popping $49 Hawaii Airfares. In a nutshell, let’s just say this isn’t over, in fact it’s barely started.Â
Introductory $49 airfares.
On Monday at 6am HST, Southwest released their first Hawaii routes replete with introductory $49 Southwest Hawaii deals. Those were between Oakland/San Jose and both Honolulu and Maui. First flights start on March 17, with staggered introductions throughout May including inter-island flights.
In the first round Monday, $49 airfares were sold out in less than one hour. The lowest price then went to $79, and those sold out within about 90 minutes. So in a few short hours, the best long-awaited introductory airfares were gone and we were back to pricing somewhat as we know it.
Best prices as of today.
$99 airfares remained and those have lasted to some degree. If you can fly in September, there are still a limited number of $99 airfares available from Oakland, but you’ll need to hunt to find them. In September, Southwest’s best prices range from $99 to $179. Hawaiian’s best prices on that route range from $139 to $179. The Southwest fare includes two free checked bags, while the Hawaiian fare includes advance seat selection, which Southwest does not offer.
$29 Inter-island fare war.
$29 introductory inter-island airfares stuck around for some time, actually nearly two days. When introduced, those were met with a nearly immediate $29 Fare War on Hawaiian Airlines Inter-Island. As of today, however, both carriers have raised the lowest price of inter-island to $49. In itself that price harkens back to fares of 20 years ago.
We haven’t really even begun to see competition.
There was immediate relief for the industry, as Hawaiian Airlines, Alaska Airlines and the legacy carriers (American, Delta and United) did not even need to respond to Southwest’s introductory airfares. Why? Because these sold out almost immediately and before others could even respond. That’s because there was an enormous demand for the cheapest fares, and because the dates of availability were only through September. So, round one came and went with very little bloodshed and without a wide-ranging fare war. But that was just round one.
Three things that will incite Hawaii airfare wars.
1. On or about March 14, Southwest will extend their schedule through November 2, 2019. That will create another month’s worth of Hawaii inventory. We don’t know how aggressively they will price it, but we think it will be at $99 or perhaps even lower.
2. Southwest will soon introduce a number of near-term Hawaii routes. Those could be announced, without prior notice, at any time. Upcoming routes include nonstop service to Kona and Kauai from San Jose and Oakland, as well as flights to all four islands from San Diego and Sacramento. With these will come more introductory airfares, again at $99 or perhaps even lower.
3. Lastly, more inter-island routes will be announced. When more of these are announced, another round of inter-island fare wars will ensue.
Hawaiian Airlines on competition with Southwest.
Regarding competition with Southwest Hawaii flights, CEO Peter Ingram said: “I am very confident that we have cost structure that will allow us to be competitive…. We compete effectively because we focus on a single thing, our unique brand of Hawaiian hospitality. How we do that… won’t change…. We won’t try to do what they do.”
Peter said that competition in our Hawaii market isn’t anything new. “…(When) we had Allegiant start service to Hawaii and I remember a lot of the investment analysts…were sort of prophesizing the immediate doom of Hawaiian Airlines. We’ve had Alaska coming into the market… ATA was in the market…. there is a long list of competitors we have dealt with.”
Beat of Hawaii’s take on Southwest vs. Hawaiian Airlines competition.
While there has always been strong and changing competition in the Hawaii market, 2019 unquestionably represents a major paradigm shift. We saw that this week, with brief but totally unprecedented $49 Southwest Hawaii deals from the mainland and $29 Hawaii inter-island airfares. And, as a result, Hawaiian Airlines stock was down 11% on Monday.
An entrant the magnitude of Southwest Airlines is something that we have never seen in Hawaii before. You simply can’t compare the legacy airlines, Allegiant, ATA, or even Alaska Airlines to Southwest.
As an interesting side note, Andy Watterson, arguably the brains of Southwest Hawaii plans, and their EVP and Chief Revenue Officer, was previously the VP of Planning and Revenue Management at, you guessed it, Hawaiian Airlines.
While the $29, $49 and $79 deals are gone for the moment, don’t despair. More of these cheapest time to fly to Hawaii deals will be returning in the days ahead as more routes and available dates are announced by Southwest and as Hawaiian and other airlines respond to competitive pressure.
We’re also awaiting Southwest Hawaii red-eye flights, that will allow them to join their Hawaii flights to the entire US route network.
Hi! My family of 4 is going from San Diego to Maui July 7th. I already booked our return flight on Hawaiian using miles only. I am looking for a flight going. I noticed I can get Nonstop on SWA for $189 each. That is over a $100 less than I can do on Hawaiian right now. My inclination is to jump on it but I wanted to make sure I am reading this right….you are saying there will be times coming up when the price on Southwest will drop lower? Maybe I should hold off??? Also, as far as comfort goes, do you think one airline is way better than the other? My husband is a bigger guy and so I don’t want to make him too uncomfortable. I don’t travel too often so I can’t remember one standing out over the other. Thanks!
Hi Laura.
Not expecting price to much lower if at all for peak summer travel. It is already highly discounted compared with other years.
Aloha.
Aloha and Mahalo for your updates on the Southwest Airlines service to Hawaii. However, I am noticing the words: maybe, not sure, the company doesn’t disclose that, later, no connections, holiday travel is expensive, etc. At this point I think a lot of people are expecting a lot more than Southwest is offering. Everyone expects a $49 fare from California and are frustrated when Southwest offers basically the same fares as all airlines. I think it would make a lot of sense for BOH to compare all the airlines that serve Hawaii with black and white information. Could you please make a chart that includes FAA statistics like: average ticket price, on-time performance, cancelled flight rate, misconnect rate, leg room, seat pitch, number of seats and class of service on each airline, type of aircraft used, flight times, baggage delivery time, lost bag rate, customer complaint rate. It would also be helpful to compare food service, advanced seat assignments, in cabin entertainment options, what services each airline charges extra for, and what does each airline do when they cancel a flight or misconnect their customers. Thank you.
Donna says,
We are looking at flying to Honolulu in December for Christmas either from San Diego or Phoenix. Any idea when Hawaiian will lower their fares from either market during that time frame or would we be better to wait to travel in January. Thanks
Hi Donna.
Christmas will always be the most expensive time, period. So definitely suggest January. Fare sales for January might start from late summer on.
Aloha.
Hi, I’m flying to Kauai July 30-Aug 5, do you think SW will be flying to there by that time? Trying to decide if I should wait to purchase tickets a couple weeks until the announcement. Thanks!
Hi Emily.
You did not say where you are flying from. Looks like Illinois. We do not expect one ticket service on Southwest from Chicago at this point in time. From the west coast we do anticipate they will fly to Kauai this summer.
Aloha.
I looked for fares between OAK and HNL mid May and best SW could offer was just under $1200. HA with full service was over $400 less!
Mahalo for keeping up with all the various options. I have purchased a one way fare from Austin, TX to Honolulu in late July and want to go back early August. How likely do you think it is, that they will introduce red eye flights in the near future? I could just go back on a different airline, but if you think it is imminent I will wait for SW.
Thanks again.
Hi Stig.
It would seem logical for them to get this going right away. On the other hand, they have resisted red eye for years. There were technical issues, which we believe have been resolved. Yet, still no red eyes. So it is anyone’s guess.
Aloha.
I’m looking to go to Kona in late June. From Tampa. What would be my best bet and cheapest way to go round trip.
Hi, I love reading your column.
I’ll be purchasing airfare for 2 from CLT to KOA. Dates:
April 7th to April 21st. Is Southwest going to affect
flights from the East coast?
Thanks
Hi Tracy.
Doubtful that they will impact the pricing you need. Long story, but they don’t have their (east coast) route network ready integration with Hawaii flights quite yet. That should happen soon, but probably not for your trip n ext month.
BTW prices are terrible for your dates and could improve a bit by waiting. Only problem is your Sunday travel dates. Even moving to Tuesdays (which probably isn’t feasible) would lower fares by $200 or more RT.
Aloha.
Hawaii wasn’t on my travel radar for 2019 until my mom called me after hearing about Southwest’s intro fares on the news. Needless to say, we missed out. After reading your updates, I’m cautiously optimistic that we may be able to take advantage during the next round of intro fares. Do you anticipate Southwest will release intro fares for their additional routes/islands in the early morning like they did on Monday? Any strategic suggestions for scooping up one of the specially priced fares during the next round? Thanks for your help!
Hi Jaidyn.
Honestly we don’t know what the next round of fares will be or the timing on their release. Only the airline knows that. Originally they had planned to release the fares at a different time, so obviously this can be very fluid.
Aloha.
We won’t be going to Maui until next February. Will all the newness and good deals be over before we can book? I would book tomorrow for February if possible but southwest doesn’t go out that far.
Since I’m flying out of Sacramento, do you have any idea when those flights post on their website? They say a couple of weeks. Since their aren’t any flights from SMF-OAK, your stuck driving the two hours each way.
Aloha,
Any idea how many 737 Max planes they have received yet? How many do you think they will need to start Phoenix direct to Hawaii service? I know they have to have those because of the distance. Hawaiian really nails us on fares from here.
Thank you,
Kendall E
Hi Kendall.
We are not sure if they would use the Max 8 or the Max 7 for that route. They have 34 of the 8’s and none of the 7’s yet. They are starting to take deliveries this year. Hope to know more soon.
Aloha.
American has 2 flights a day from PHX to HNL and I believe also one a day in to OGG and KOA Hawaiian isn’t the only option
Will there be any cheap price from Dallas/ Austin to Hawaii? I can find depart but not return from Hawaii to Austin from southwest.
Thanks for the fast updates!
We are bringing 15 family members from San Diego to Maui on July 4th to celebrate our 50 anniversary. Wonder if we should keep waiting for Southwest to fly nonstop from San Diego or lock in $600 Alaska tickets now.
Thanks for keeping us informed!
Hi Rich.
Our sense would be to wait. It should not be much longer – maybe a couple of weeks or less until we know.
Aloha.
Any idea when they will expand up the west coast, for instance Oregonor Seattle? Are they also doing any kind of premeir club or miles program?
I’ve been following the Southwest saga on Beat of Hawaii for several months. Because of that, I had been logging onto Southwest’s website a couple of times each day, checking to see if “today was the day.” Imagine my surprise when I logged in early Monday morning and was able to score $176 round-trip fares from Las Vegas to Kahului (through Oakland) for May. Thank you Beat of Hawaii!
Hi Charlie.
We’re so happy for you, and you’re telling us just made our day!
Aloha.
Sorry! I did not read the above before posting my comment. I would be flying from San Diego to Maui. My question is: do you foresee any summertime airfare discounts? July-August travel? It seems as if most discounts being mentioned are for pre-summer/post-sunmer travel. Thank you for your help!
Hi Jeremy.
Most welcome. Yes there is good inventory across carriers and in our opinion there will be good pricing. For that matter, fares are already starting as low $371 in August, which is pretty fabulous. At this point, hang on for a bit, and we think you’ll probably be glad that you did. Mid week, mid August might be from $300 or even less RT. Let us know how it works out.
Aloha.
Thank you for putting out all this info. Exciting to see the coming months
Wendy
A media blogger suggested the reason SWA did not open any other west coast terminals was due to aircraft availability with the recent mechanical issues with SWA fleet. Any thoughts or know press releases on that?
Wow Beat of Hawaii, thank you for keeping us all informed so quickly!
I was prepared to purchase holiday tickets (dec 22 to 5th) HNL to west coast right when the southwest effect took place. I had no idea that southwest did not release travel dates as far out.
Would you recommend waiting for the southwest effect to hit holiday travel dates or purchase now?
Thank you so much!
Hi Courtney.
How the competition will unfold is not exactly predictable. For this year, suspect it might be worth waiting on. Generally, those dates should be bought 330 days in advance. Since you didn’t, and prices are pretty much sky high for those most in demand peak season dates anyway, you might as well see what happens.
Aloha.