We can’t wait to get back to those $99 (or less) cheap flights to Hawaii that we all just loved, only a couple of months ago. With that in mind, we went looking at what has happened since Southwest Hawaii first routes were announced and subsequently began, in terms of competition and pricing. Our focus here was on the routes where Southwest Hawaii flights are competing directly with Alaska Airlines and Hawaiian Airlines. It was fascinating to see what we found. Read on for examples and for our analysis, including what to expect next.
We had a look ahead to the upcoming low season, from August to the end of the year, except for holidays. Below are the very lowest fares we found in each market for each airline on certain days.
Oakland to Maui:
Alaska Airlines: $164 (basic economy)
Hawaiian Airlines: $169
Southwest Airlines: $159
Oakland to Honolulu
Alaska Airlines: $169 (basic economy)
Hawaiian Airlines: $169
Southwest Airlines: $159
Oakland to Kona
Alaska Airlines: $179 (basic economy)
Hawaiian Airlines: $216
Southwest Airlines: $203
San Jose to Maui
Alaska Airlines: $169 (basic economy)
Hawaiian Airlines: $169
Southwest Airlines: $159
San Jose to Honolulu
Alaska Airlines: $159 (basic economy)
Hawaiian Airlines: $169
Southwest Airlines: $159
San Jose to Kona
Alaska Airlines: $214 (basic economy)
Hawaiian Airlines: $214
Southwest Airlines: $159
Service levels vary by airline.
As you can see above, Alaska Airlines’ prices are listed as basic economy. Read on for just what that means. Hawaiian Airlines’ prices are for full fare economy, including assigned seats and meals. Hawaiian’s basic economy should be announced very soon. Southwest has its own unique take on service. They offer free snacks and entertainment, two complimentary checked bags, but no assigned seating.
See our Updated Guide | Basic Economy to Hawaii.
Beat of Hawaii take on current state of non-competition.
The three Hawaii-centric airlines have already reached some level of what we will call “equilibrium.” That isn’t to imply any wrong-doing, but rather it means they all appear to be reasonably okay together, with the current price levels, and seem able to attain adequate passenger load and make money as it now stands. But that’s just for now. Remember that Southwest has only opened a small portion of their intended Hawaii routes. As soon as the Max planes can return to the sky, the remaining routes will begin to unfold.
Read all about Southwest Hawaii flights.
What’s next?
When Southwest releases the next round of new routes (Sacramento, San Diego, and Lihue, followed by others), there will, without a doubt, be more introductory fares, and a competitive response from Alaska Airlines and Hawaiian Airlines. The big question is, will these three principals be able to maintain this state of balance, or will we see more super-low Hawaii deals?
American Airlines’, Delta Airlines’ and United Airlines’ role.
Add to the mix the fact that we have other big airline players in Hawaii too, who are entirely capable and willing to throw a wrench into the mix. Those include all 3 legacy carriers.
Stay tuned.
So in the end, between Alaska, Hawaiian and Southwest, plus American, Delta and United, the pricing equilibrium will at best be on and off. That means great deals ahead that we will definitely catch.
We continue to scour for Hawaii deals mainly unadvertised by any of the airlines flying to Hawaii. Subscribe to our free updates, and be first to get in on the best deals.
Aloha,
You folks need to back off on the “when are we getting $99 fares again” program. Check your archives; a 2012 article published by yourselves clearly shows that $99 DOES NOT pay the fuel per seat. Crude prices are similar to 2012. When an airline uses below cost predatory pricing to force their way into a new market the market obviously becomes damaged. Passengers don’t actually care about the health of a carrier until amenities are cut or the amenity costs are increased. Then, as flights are operating at a loss due to below cost fares, a responsible airline reduces frequency and possibly increases prices. That is when the artificial demand created by predatory pricing evaporates. The carriers quit playing. If none of these remedial methods are successful the carrier pulls out of the market, seat prices are free to rise for the remaining carriers, leaving the consumer with less AND more expensive options. I find the SWA 2 free bag per passenger perk eye watering. Do you have any idea how much weight that is, translated to fuel burn flying half way across the Pacific multiple times per day? Not to mention the irresistible $25 to $35 per bag fee that SWA is forgoing to force market share? I bet that within one year of the SWA Hawaii program being in full swing they will be charging for bags. My wife and I fly to Hawaii every year. We plan, go online and purchase tickets with out favourite carrier. We seem to pay between $200 to $300 per seat from the west coast, each way, year in, year out. We pay for 2 checked bags, each way. This is what the market seems to require on a consistent basis in order to provide the frequency we want from the departure points we choose. Mahalo.
Like many, I’ve been patiently awaiting SWA to start Sacramento to Honolulu. I check daily, sometimes multiple times. But yesterday I noticed something odd…. in November, December and January, there are some return flights from Honolulu posted, but no flights from Sacramento. Is this an error, or are they pregaming a little? I just find it odd, and maybe you can offer a reasonable explanation? Mahalo!!
Hi Brendan.
We saw that too, but those are connecting flights with 2 connections. Not sure it is related and we definitely don’t expect anything from SW on new routes until Mx is approved for global return. That announcement might take place by September – no one really knows for sure.
Aloha.
Makes total sense, but still hopeful thinking!!
Hoping for San Diego to Lihue soon???
I was hoping to find cheap tickets the end of July or first of August to Kona. Do you see any upcoming deals for that time or do you think it’s the best price its going to be for that period?
Given that SJC and OAK are in the Bay Area and their pricing looks nearly the same, it would be interesting to see the same analysis but with SFO in the mix as well (United, Hawaiian, Sun Country, and Alaska).