Why was Hawaii Hurricane Douglas forecast so different than the actual storm?
64 thoughts on “Wrong Forecast Spared Islands, Shattered Nerves, Cost Hawaiian Air Millions”
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Aloha! Overlooking Kahului harbor we were listed as the arrival point on Maui. With lanai living and dining rooms, not enclosed, we were consumed with preparation. All without regret. We lived in Austin when Katrina hit and had gone to sleep fully assured it would make land in Georgia or South Carolina because Atlantic storms “always ramp up as they hit the warmer water and head north”. No one in a Gulf state received warning. And then just a day prior to Douglas we watched as Texas suffered a second land strike just hours after the first. It was Aristotle would said “We must study the accidental to acknowledge it cannot be predictable.”
PS Today the trade winds are stronger than any of Douglas
Hi Lynda.
Thanks. Yes trade winds are back.
Aloha.
Your headline “Wrong Forecast….” is very unfortunate and erroneous. Forecasts were made with as much insight and foresight possible. In actuality we were fortunate that Hurricane Douglas was kind to Hawaii, especially since we are undergoing many adjustments due to COVID-19.
Hawaiian Airlines chose to do what they did. Just as homeowners boarded up and supermarkets closed early.
Your headlines were insensitive and inaccurate.
Silly! No one can predict completely accurately what Nature will do as is evidenced by our current COVID situation. Better safe than sorry right? It was close and as much as could be predicted. We are way too accustomed to things going completely our way lest we have a hissyfit! This was not another bomb headed for Hawaii situation, now that was a reason for complaint.
Can’t win either way. HUMANS!!!
As a frequent visitor to Kauai and also a resident on the Texas Gulf Coast, I could see that as the day went on Sunday,this was not going to be much of a weather event. We are always hoping to avoid the quadrant that is to the right of the line of movement (usually NE quadrant) and we refer to that as the dirty side of the storm. That quadrant was going to be north of the island and unless the storm was a Cat. 4 or 5 with a huge problem for the right or north side, nothing much was going to happen on the south side of the line of travel. I can see how storms coming from the south and aiming at the west side of the island would be a real problem by putting that NE quadrant over the main part of the island but that was not the situation with this storm.
The other issue that we experience here in SE Texas is that the news media loves to cover and/or hype these storms because of the ratings that it brings them. Look up the results of the Hurricane Rita evacuation when the TV news people had predictions of water reaching downtown Houston. I later saw where someone posted a picture of his plastic deck chair that had flipped over as the total result of the storm.
The NHC charts from Sunday afternoon showed that hurricane force winds were not going to hit Kauai but HNN was still talking about it hitting the island.
Hi Donald.
We didn’t get into the whole media aspect but concur with your observations.
Aloha.
Is there no satellite tracking of weather systems available in the islands?
One thing to consider about the inaccurate forecast is that in recent years commercial aircraft and cruise ships have become an important source of the weather reports that go into weather forecasts. Because of the pandemic there are far fewer of those reports and I suspect that in an isolated location like Hawaii that might have a significant impact on accuracy.
Thank goodness Hawaii was spared! I cannot imagine your comments if hurricane had hit the islands! Shocked at your outrage.
Congratulations! You just witnessed the fallacy of the global warming alarmists claiming that the computer models can tell us what the temperature will be in 100 years within several tenths a degree when the reality is that the best and most powerful super computers that are used by the NWS STILL cannot give an accurate track for a hurricane even a single day out let alone several days or even a week out! The weather on planet earth is just too dynamic a system for even the best computers to be able to model and predict!
What a relief! Thank you for the update.
I wonder if you might write a report of what life has been like for the locals during the pandemic in terms of the lack of tourists. Obviously it is creating a financial hardship for many, but it seems that there must be positives as well ( e.g. so much less traffic).
Thank you!
Hi Brenda.
Thanks, and yes we will be doing that.
Aloha.
Aloha BoH friends! I say don’t ask why, simply say ‘mahalo’ and move along! Never look a gift horse in the mouth – or in this case a mistaken hurricane forecast in the eye! 🌺
Hi Tea.
Thanks.
Aloha.
Aloha,
I say that’s one of the biggest problems the islands suffer… to just say ‘Mahalo’, and not question – ie. the falsification of forecasting that preempted al local cable programming over the weekend.
I could literally watch local news forecasters declare 105mph expected wind speeds, at the same moment the NWS, NOAA, and associated apps all declared 35mph forecasts for the exact same time & location. News here is becoming a farce, and it’s time to start asking why a lot more often.
Mahalo
Hi Michael.
Thank you.
Aloha.
This was not a “gift”. Everyone should know by now the typical tracks of hurricanes and the fact that they usually deflect off Mauna Kea and Mauna Loa to the North to colder waters and dissipate. I have watched them for over 50 years and was never worried about This one. There is a lot of stupidity being exhibited in the Islads these dats.