Why was Hawaii Hurricane Douglas forecast so different than the actual storm?
64 thoughts on “Wrong Forecast Spared Islands, Shattered Nerves, Cost Hawaiian Air Millions”
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Right on…..very well stated, not just for Hawaii but the rest of the USA as well!!
I am so happy the dire hurricane predictions didn’t come to be but cannot help feeling sorry for Hawaiian airlines and I understand your frustration with NOAA. I am glad you are all safe and the islands spared!
Hi Nadege.
Thanks as always. Side note – interesting news about Trudy’s move.
Aloha. R/J
I am so happy for Trudy! She feels safe and comfortable in her new environment! She is happy!
I am missing the islands terribly!
Hi Nadege.
Hopefully we can meet up sometime soon.
Our best until then.
Aloha.
“I believe in science, I believe in data, I believe in models that predict weather, climate and economic disaster. I believe the coronavirus death rate is not like a flu it is a pandemic”. Repeat again. Perhaps a little less blind faith in the “so-called” experts and a little more calm common sense would be useful in the times we are living in. The world we live in is very complex and the “so-called” experts never even admit when they are wrong. Why is there never accountability in the public sector experts? Over half the covid deaths have been in nursing homes. Who in public health is responsible for our elders? Will they have to answer why steps were not taken to quarantine our most vulnerable senior citizens when all the “data” and “science” from Italy demonstrated deaths were primarily those over 70. Please ask yourself if the damage done by unemployment and drug abuse from the shutdown of “living” might cause more death and suffering in Hawaii than the virus ever could have?
Right on…..very well stated, not just for Hawaii but the rest of the USA as well!!
Oh, those experts again! Let’s just make up our own ‘data’.
The first really good news in a long time! The islands and the people were spared from the hurricane. Give thanks!
The forecast wasn’t wrong, though. The storm tracked within the forecasted range. No forecaster that I’m aware of said landfall was a certainty. Weather forecasting technology does not exist to determine whether a hurricane or other storm will hit a very specific spot, like a relatively small island chain, or narrowly miss it, so it is better to be prepared than not.
I awoke SO GRATEFUL, in my Kauai bed this morning. What if…when the storm started skirting north of Hawaii an incredible response to united prayer was realized?
I watched the reports all day yesterday also and it sure looked, to my untrained eye, like Oahu and Kauai were in the crosshairs. I hold nothing against the weather forecasters. I have never lived in a place where the forecasts were 100% and my understanding is that when a storm brushes up against land it can act in unexpected ways. Mahalo to NOAA, our leaders and all those who made their best effort to keep us safe this weekend. The exercise in preparedness was a good reminder.
Hurricane forecasting is not an exact science hence forecasters tend to err on the side of caution. Had they said that the storm would pass North and do no damage and instead it turned west and hit the islands, what would you be posting?
Notoriously, hurricanes can fishhook at any moment. There are plenty of examples. The Navy used to regularly move aircraft out of places such as Pensacola, Fl. based on similar data.
If Hawaiian AL had taken a hit from the hurricane, they would gladly pay the number you mentioned not to have. The long term damage to to the community is the motivation to be very cautious. The long term damage to places like New Orleans and Houston are great examples.
I personally am very relieved things turned out as they did. Hawaii is a very fragile environment these days. Thank God it was a good outcome.
Well, what do you think it would have cost Hawaiian to have aircraft out of service due to storm damage? Better safe than sorry!
Thankfully Hawaii was spared! I am guessing posting a story link on this topic would not be ok. A researcher named Dr. Ying Chen from Lancaster University recently published a research paper about why weather reports to include hurricanes have been less accurate. He attributes it in part to diminished flights due to Covid19. Meteorologists only gets so much data from radar. They use data from many sources in making forecasts. The 2 most useful sources are aircraft and cruise ships for over water. On land additional weather stations/spots can be set up or additional weather balloons can be launched. While there are still buoys, their accuracy isn’t dependable for a variety of reasons.
I’m not a meteorologist. I just read a story about this today and thought I’d pass this along. 🙂
Thanks! I hope this post doesn’t go against the rules.
Hi Olga.
Thanks. Very interesting.
Aloha.
Mahalo for this article. I live in Kailua-Kona on the Big Island and was supposed to be visiting Oahu this weekend. Unfortunately, Southwest decided on Friday morning (4 hours before my outbound flight) to cancel my Sunday return flight (and all Sunday flights) due to the forecasted hurricane. I was not able to stay until Monday because of work and there were no options for a Saturday afternoon or evening return, so I was forced to cancel at the last minute. I was surprised and a little frustrated at the time that SW made that decision to cancel so early but I can certainly understand and respect it. And while it was a huge disappointment to miss my trip, I’m so glad our islands were spared from any major impacts of Douglas and that I was not stranded for an extra day away from home.
Hi Marci.
Thanks.
Aloha.